olivLaw · European equity research
J D Wetherspoon plc JDW.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB0001638955 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
J D Wetherspoon is one of the largest pub operators in Britain, built on low prices and a broad estate of outlets. The company is at the centre of debates over tax pressure and rising costs in the hospitality industry, and recent sales results show a recovery in footfall, with caveats tied to energy and labour costs.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, J D Wetherspoon plc (JDW.L) stock was 10.38 GBP (−0.76% on the day), with dividend yield 115.61%, beta 0.74, 52-week range 5.56–10.78 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 59.9
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 9.87 – 10.79
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.55 · band width 8.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 9.16 / 7.40
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.37 / 0.45
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +7.8% | −0.6% | +8.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | +28.1% | −4.2% | +32.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +73.0% | +4.3% | +68.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +40.7% | +7.5% | +33.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +61.7% | +9.9% | +51.8 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +52.4% | +49.8% | +2.6 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | −0.3% | +42.8% | −43.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
EPS unavailable in the issuer's structured filings (e.g. a partnership reports per unit, not per share).
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +5.7% | +4.5% |
| Net income | 59.6 m | 48.8 m | 68.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −18.1% | +39.4% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 27 Jul 2025
- Cash
- 38.7 m GBP
- Financial debt
- 764.1 m GBP
- Net debt
- 725.4 m GBP
- Equity
- 362.0 m GBP
- Total assets
- 1.9 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 2.11x
- Current ratio
- 0.28x
- ROE
- 17.8%
- ROA
- 3.6%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Operating income | 106.0 m | 142.6 m | 142.2 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 69.1 m | 67.7 m | 65.4 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 90.5 m | 60.6 m | 89.3 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Income tax | 30.9 m | 11.8 m | 21.4 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Net income | 59.6 m | 48.8 m | 68.0 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 12.00 | 12.00 | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 87.2 m | 57.2 m | 38.7 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Receivables | 27.3 m | 26.6 m | 26.5 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Current assets | 159.1 m | 122.1 m | 100.1 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 6.5 m | 5.9 m | 7.9 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Total assets | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 727.6 m | 719.1 m | 764.1 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 387.3 m | 351.4 m | 361.4 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Equity | 413.1 m | 401.6 m | 362.0 m | esef· 18 Nov 2025verified |
Cash flow · GBP
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
27% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 10.1% | 42 (vs peers) | 38% |
| Net margin · Quality | 3.2% | 31 (vs peers) | 23% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.2x | 10 (on a fixed band) | 23% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet6/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality38/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
J D WETHERSPOON PLC (JDW.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-07-27.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.1 bn GBP in 2025; YoY growth 4.5%; net margin 3.2%; ROE 17.8%.
The estimated value range is 117.71–145.41 GBP per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 130.11 GBP, the price of 10.38 GBP leaves a potential of 1,153.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 92.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: 2.2x
- Current ratio: 0.3x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
| AEP.LAnglo-Eastern Plantations PLC | — | — | 16.1% | 19.5% | +25.0% | +5% / +113% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for JDW.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
J D Wetherspoon is one of the largest pub operators in Britain, built on low prices and a broad estate of outlets. The company is at the centre of debates over tax pressure and rising costs in the hospitality industry, and recent sales results show a recovery in footfall, with caveats tied to energy and labour costs 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a large estate of outlets and a standardised operating model, with very high hygiene scores and an internal culture of bonuses for employees.
- Local staff management is strong, with manager retention levels that the company considers superior to the sector.
- Like-for-like sales have consistently outperformed the industry indicator, which points to an ability to attract customers even in difficult conditions.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on labour and energy costs, which are influenced by government policies that are hard to anticipate, can affect margins.
- The governance structure, with many directors from inside the company, may be seen by some investors as less independent.
- Locations in Scotland are subject to an assessment regime that the company considers unfavourable, which raises the local tax burden.
Opportunities
- If government were to revise taxes on food or business rates, the company could reduce its tax pressure and compete more effectively with supermarkets.
- Extending waste management and energy-use schemes could reduce costs over the longer term.
- If on-premise demand continues to grow, there could be room to increase sales in existing pubs.
Threats
- Increases in wages and social contributions could force price rises that reduce customer footfall.
- Continued consolidation of competition from supermarkets in the drinks segment could keep eroding pubs' market share.
- Litigation and disputes over local tax assessments could bring unexpected costs if they are resolved unfavourably.
Risks
- Labour cost pressurehigh
Rises in social contributions and the wage floor could reduce margins if they cannot be passed on to customers without hurting sales volumes.
- Energy costsmedium
Non-commodity energy prices remain volatile, and a sharp rise could affect the operating results of the estate.
- Tax regime and regulationmedium
Changes to VAT, business rates or the packaging levy could materially alter the cost structure, positively or negatively, depending on government decisions.
- Property-related litigationlow
Disputes with former property advisers and contested local valuations could generate legal costs or adjustments, although most were, according to the report, settled.
- Governance and board independencelow
The board structure, with many internal directors and an approach that differs from usual standards on non-executive tenure, could attract criticism from institutional investors.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the recovery in like-for-like sales is sustained, the company could offset cost pressure through volume and the efficiency of a large estate of outlets.
- High hygiene standards and good manager retention could support operational quality and long-term customer loyalty.
- A possible fairer tax framework for pubs could materially improve the company's competitiveness against supermarkets.
What would break the thesis
- Rising labour and energy costs could reduce margins, especially if prices cannot be raised without losing customers.
- Competition from supermarkets, which benefit from a more favourable tax regime, could continue to erode the market share of pubs.
- The governance structure and disputes over local valuations could draw investor attention and generate additional costs.
What to watch
- Trend in like-for-like sales in the coming periodnext 10-K
- Impact of rising social contributions on margins2027
- Extent to which pub prices are adjusted without losing footfall2027
- Any changes to the VAT regime and business rates2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
J D Wetherspoon plc operates mainly pubs in the United Kingdom, many of them in converted historic buildings, with an emphasis on affordable prices and a standardised food and drink offer. The company also includes franchised pubs, and in fiscal 2025 it had 740 outlets rated by the Food Standards Agency, with an average hygiene score of 4.99 1. Its model relies on bonus and free share schemes for all employees, as well as a pub management base that has achieved high retention rates 1.
The company publishes detailed annual reporting on hygiene standards, energy use and waste management, and in 2025 it received an award for its resource and waste partnership 1. Management has repeatedly criticised the tax burden on the sector, arguing that some tax mechanisms favour supermarkets, a position that forms part of its public and lobbying strategy 1.
The governance structure reflects a stated preference for experience from within the company, with several directors who started on the shop floor and reached regional management roles 1. The company presents this as an advantage of operational knowledge, but such a structure could also attract criticism from investors who favour the usual standards of board independence.
Segments
Owned and franchised pubs
The main segment consists of pubs operated directly by the company, complemented by franchised locations, all rated under the same hygiene system. The high average score and the share of pubs with a five-star rating, at 98.8%, are presented by the company as evidence of consistent operational control 1.
Operations in Scotland
Pubs in Scotland form a distinct group from a regulatory and tax standpoint, and management argues that the business rates assessment system there works like a sales tax. All 56 Scottish pubs passed the local hygiene scheme, which the company highlights as a quality indicator 1.
Pubs and property holdings
A relevant component concerns the management of premises and lease arrangements, where the company brought legal actions against property advisers accused of diverting properties to third parties. According to the report, the disputes were largely settled out of court, and details appear in the appendices of the annual report 1.
Market context
Market dynamics also depend on the regulatory framework, including duty levels on alcohol and packaging, and local policies on safety and antisocial behaviour. The company argues that Pubwatch-style schemes could reduce incidents in towns and that a fairer tax framework would support the sector, but these are management positions rather than independently measured results 1.
Trends
- Rising labour costsheadwind
Increases in employer national insurance and wage floors could significantly raise the operating costs of pubs. The company estimates an increase of about 60 million pounds a year from this cause, which could reduce margins if prices cannot be adjusted without losing customers 1.
- Recovery in pub footfalltailwind
Like-for-like sales rose in the recent period, and the company has outperformed the industry tracker for a long run of months, suggesting that on-premise demand is holding. If this trend continues, it could support revenue in the coming periods, although the data cover a short window 1.
- Tax pressure on the sectormixed
Debates over VAT on food and over the business rates that pubs pay compared with supermarkets are in the spotlight. If government were to reduce these burdens, the impact could be favourable for the company, but such a change is not assured 1.
- Energy costs and packaging leviesheadwind
Non-commodity energy costs and the new Extended Producer Responsibility packaging levy add to the expenses the company bears. The company monitors consumption through automated meter readers, which helps it see where savings can be made 1.
Competitive position
Main competitors are other pub and restaurant operators in Britain, as well as supermarkets, which compete directly in the segment of drinks and inexpensive food. The company argues that supermarkets benefit from a major tax advantage that lets them offer lower prices on beer, wine and spirits 1.
Competition also plays out on pricing, where the company aims to keep increases to a minimum, and on operational quality, measured through hygiene scores and staff retention. The report does not offer a direct financial comparison with competitors, so relative positions should be judged with caution 1.
- Greene King
Pub operator in Britain, cited in the report in the context of proposals for profit-based business rates.
- Enterprise Inns
Pub company in Britain, cited in the report regarding its position in the campaign for a reduced VAT rate.
- Asda
British supermarket chain, cited as an example of a favourable tax regime for beer sales.
- British supermarkets
Group of supermarkets which, according to the report, are gaining share of beer sold outside pubs.
News & filings
In the press
- Wetherspoon’s issues fourth profit warning in seven monthsThe Guardian World · 22 Jul 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202518 Nov 2025
- Annual report 202412 Nov 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-07-27 (ESEF) · SEC / J D Wetherspoon plc · 27 Jul 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.