olivLaw · European equity research
Tesco PLC TSCO.L
United Kingdom · London Stock Exchange · ISIN GB00BLGZ9862 · Vertical: Listed companies from United Kingdom
Tesco PLC is the largest grocery retailer in the United Kingdom, serving customers through stores, online channels and money and insurance services. In fiscal 2026 Group sales excluding VAT and fuel rose 4.3 percent at constant exchange rates, while adjusted operating profit grew only slightly, by 0.6 percent, to 3,152 million pounds sterling.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Tesco PLC (TSCO.L) stock was 5.61 GBP (+1.34% on the day), with market capitalisation 36.4 bn GBP, P/E 20.7 on diluted EPS of 0.27 GBP over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.54%, beta -0.06, 52-week range 4.13–5.61 GBP.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 74.0
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 5.09 – 5.60
- above the upper band · %B 1.01 · band width 9.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 4.98 / 4.75
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.15 / 0.15
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +19.3% | −0.6% | +20.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | +17.9% | −4.2% | +22.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +19.0% | +4.3% | +14.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +26.9% | +7.5% | +19.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +20.3% | +9.9% | +10.3 pp | +5.8% |
| 3 years | +103.3% | +49.8% | +53.4 pp | +26.3% |
| 5 years | +103.7% | +42.8% | +60.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 15.9, median 16.9, max 17.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 68.2 bn | 69.9 bn | 73.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +2.5% | +5.4% |
| Net income | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +36.9% | +9.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.17 | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +41.9% | +15.3% |
| net % | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 28 Feb 2026
- Cash
- 2.5 bn GBP
- Financial debt
- 7.2 bn GBP
- Net debt
- 4.7 bn GBP
- Equity
- 11.5 bn GBP
- Total assets
- unavailable GBP
- Debt / equity
- 0.63x
- Current ratio
- 0.59x
- ROE
- 15.5%
- ROA
- unavailable
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 68.2 bn | 69.9 bn | 73.7 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 62.8 bn | 64.2 bn | 67.4 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 4.8 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.5 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Operating income | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.0 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 805.0 m | 746.0 m | 814.0 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Income tax | 525.0 m | 611.0 m | 616.0 m | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.17 | 0.24 | 0.27 | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.14 | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Inventories | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Current assets | 16.6 bn | 8.9 bn | 8.5 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 17.2 bn | 17.3 bn | 17.7 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 10.3 bn | 10.4 bn | 10.7 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 1.5 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 5.7 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.4 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 13.8 bn | 14.3 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Equity | 11.7 bn | 11.7 bn | 11.5 bn | esef· 27 May 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 7.1 bn | 6.8 bn | 6.5 bn | esef· 27 May 2026derived |
Cash flow · GBP
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 36.4 bn GBP
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
38% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 13.7% | 50 (vs peers) | 28% |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.4% | 26 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.7x | 33 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 20.7x | 28 (vs peers) | 28% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet20/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality41/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial28/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
TESCO PLC (TSCO.L). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-02-28.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 73.7 bn GBP in 2026; YoY growth 5.4%; net margin 2.4%; ROE 15.5%.
The estimated value range is 2.23–3.22 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 2.73 GBP, the price of 5.61 GBP leaves a potential of -51.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -105.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 2.4%
- Current ratio: 0.6x
- P/E (TTM): 20.7x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from United Kingdom · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATS.LBritish American Tobacco P.L.C. | 104.3 bn | 13.5 | 16.5% | 30.3% | −1.0% | +7% / +88% |
| TSCO.LTesco PLC | 36.4 bn | 20.7 | 15.5% | 2.4% | +5.4% | +25% / +96% |
| ABF.LAssociated British Foods PLC | 14.7 bn | 14.3 | 9.2% | 5.3% | −3.1% | −5% / −15% |
| 0EV1.LCarnival PLC | 5.5 bn | 4.1 | 46.7% | 13.4% | +6.4% | unavailable / unavailable |
| BAB.LBabcock International Group PLC | 5.1 bn | 24.7 | 34.7% | 4.1% | +7.2% | −10% / +158% |
| AUTO.LAutotrader Group PLC | 4.8 bn | 16.4 | 60.2% | 47.1% | +3.9% | −13% / −23% |
| BBY.LBalfour Beatty PLC | 4.2 bn | 16.3 | 23.2% | 2.8% | +15.2% | +20% / +160% |
| ABDN.LAberdeen Group PLC | 4.1 bn | 10.8 | 8.0% | 28.9% | −2.1% | +11% / +41% |
| BKG.LThe Berkeley Group Holdings PLC | 3.6 bn | 11.3 | 8.8% | 13.4% | −4.2% | −0% / −22% |
| BME.LB&M European Value Retail PLC | 2.9 bn | 17.4 | 21.2% | 2.8% | +3.7% | +68% / −51% |
| AJB.LAj Bell PLC | 2.4 bn | 22.8 | 49.9% | 33.1% | +18.0% | +8% / +128% |
| ASHM.LAshmore Group PLC | 1.4 bn | 13.9 | 13.1% | 71.6% | −0.1% | +28% / +18% |
| BCG.LBaltic Classifieds Group PLC | 1.2 bn | 23.2 | 15.8% | 57.6% | +6.9% | −99% / −99% |
| APN.LApplied Nutrition PLC | 763.6 m | 36.2 | 41.2% | 19.7% | +24.2% | +71% / unavailable |
| BAG.LA.G. Barr P.L.C. | 671.9 m | 14.4 | 14.4% | 10.8% | +4.0% | −7% / +26% |
| ASC.LAsos PLC | 494.5 m | — | -81.3% | -12.0% | −14.7% | +71% / +8% |
| ALFA.LAlfa Financial Software Holdings PLC | 486.8 m | 16.3 | 61.5% | 23.8% | +15.3% | −28% / +10% |
| AML.LAston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC | 344.3 m | — | -93.4% | -39.2% | −20.6% | −45% / −85% |
| APTD.LAptitude Software Group PLC | 111.3 m | 28.5 | 7.2% | 6.2% | −7.3% | −30% / −23% |
| AMGO.LAmigo Holdings PLC | 9.9 m | — | — | — | −81.9% | +325% / +844% |
| ASBE.LAssociated British Engineering PLC | 605.3 k | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AMIF.LAmicorp Fs (uk) PLC | 221.6 k | 0.1 | 27.5% | 9.1% | +8.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AAF.LAirtel Africa PLC | — | — | 24.1% | 10.6% | +29.5% | −7% / +164% |
| AAL.LAnglo American PLC | — | — | -19.3% | -20.2% | +4.5% | +30% / +76% |
| ACG.LAcg Metals Limited | — | — | -80.3% | -32.0% | +134.8% | +60% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TSCO.L from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (GBP)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 3.40 Total return -37% · Per year -37% | 6.00 Total return 10% · Per year 10% | 9.03 Total return 64% · Per year 64% |
| 3 years | 3.36 Total return -34% · Per year -13% | 6.67 Total return 28% · Per year 8% | 11.02 Total return 107% · Per year 28% |
| 5 years | 3.32 Total return -31% · Per year -7% | 7.41 Total return 47% · Per year 8% | 13.43 Total return 160% · Per year 21% |
- Exit P/E± 1.67
- Net margin± 1.17
- Annual revenue growth± 0.95
- Annual dilution± 0.10
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Tesco PLC is the largest grocery retailer in the United Kingdom, serving customers through stores, online channels and money and insurance services. In fiscal 2026 Group sales excluding VAT and fuel rose 4.3 percent at constant exchange rates, while adjusted operating profit grew only slightly, by 0.6 percent, to 3,152 million pounds sterling.
SWOT
Strengths
- A very large store and online network that provides scale to reach customers.
- A flexible supply chain and strong supplier relationships, supported by strong free cash flow 1.
- The Clubcard loyalty programme gives detailed insight into customer behaviour.
Weaknesses
- Growth in adjusted operating profit has been very modest compared with sales growth, due to operating costs.
- Strong dependence on the UK market exposes the company to local economic conditions.
- Continued investment in lower prices could limit profit margins.
Opportunities
- Growth in online shopping and delivery services could open new revenue sources.
- Reducing emissions and moving to renewable energy could lower costs over the longer term.
- Expanding the range of healthy and sustainable products could attract new customer segments.
Threats
- Price competition, especially from discounters, could erode market share.
- Pressure on household budgets could reduce demand or shift buying preferences.
- Regulatory and climate reporting requirements could raise operating costs.
Risks
- Margin pressuremedium
Investment in lower prices and colleague pay could limit profit if sales growth does not offset costs.
- Price competitionhigh
Competitors offering very low prices could attract price-sensitive customers.
- Dependence on the UK marketmedium
Concentration in a single market makes the company sensitive to local economic conditions.
- Climate and supply risksmedium
Climate events could affect the supply of agricultural products and procurement costs.
- Regulation and reportinglow
Growing climate and sustainability reporting requirements could increase compliance costs.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Its large scale and loyalty programme could support market share if customers continue to choose its competitive prices.
- Strong operating cash flow provides flexibility for investment and for returning capital to shareholders.
- If profit growth accelerates relative to sales, margins could recover to higher levels.
What would break the thesis
- Profit growth has remained very modest, which could indicate ongoing pressure on margins.
- Price competition could force the company to keep investing in lower prices.
- Exposure to a single market could amplify the effects of a UK economic slowdown.
What to watch
- Evolution of sales growth and adjusted operating profitnext 10-K
- Evolution of operating cash flow and capital returns to shareholders2027
- Progress in reducing emissions from own operations2027
- Market share development against price competitionQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Tesco's business model rests on its reach, a large store network and a broad online business, a best-in-class supply chain, and an understanding of customers through its Clubcard programme. The company says it aims to provide customers with the products they want, whenever, wherever and however they want to be served 1. Operating cash flow of 5.2 billion pounds sterling enabled investment in growth and innovation 1.
Segments
Retail (large stores, convenience stores, online)
The core retail business covers large and convenience stores, grocery home shopping and the Whoosh service, and Group sales grew across all operating segments 1.
Insurance and money services
The Insurance and Money Services business is presented as a continuing operation in the annual report and is included in the headline performance measures 1.
Market context
Tesco operates mainly in the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland, where pressure on household budgets has led the company to invest in better prices. The report cites offers such as Aldi Price Match on more than 600 lines and Clubcard Prices, and the company states it made further market share gains 1.
Trends
- Pressure on household budgetsmixed
Customers are feeling budget pressure, which could favour a retailer offering competitive prices and a strong loyalty programme, but could also limit profit margins.
- Investment in value and qualitymixed
Price and quality investment has supported sales growth, but it has weighed on profitability, which rose only 0.6 percent at constant exchange rates 1.
- Decarbonisation of operationstailwind
Reducing emissions in own operations and shifting to renewable electricity could lower energy costs over the longer term and support climate reporting requirements.
- Operating and workforce costsheadwind
Investment in colleague pay and safety measures can raise costs, which could reduce profit if sales growth does not keep pace.
Competitive position
Tesco competes with other grocery retailers in the United Kingdom, and the report explicitly references price competition, particularly against Aldi through its price match policy. The company states that the competitive environment and consumer sentiment were key topics in its dialogue with shareholders 1.
- Aldi
Direct price competitor; Tesco offers price matching with Aldi on more than 600 lines 1.
- Sainsbury's
Major UK grocery retailer cited as part of the competitive environment, without detail in the source.
- Lidl
Grocery discounter present in the British market, relevant to price competition, without detail in the source.
- Amazon FreshAMZN
Online grocery competitor, relevant to the online shopping segment.
News & filings
In the press
- Hungary Targets Higher-Value Business Services as Sector Nears 120,000 JobsBudapest Business Journal (HU, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Egyre kevesebb élelmiszerlánc között választhatnak a vevők Közép-EurópábanTelex English (HU) · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Tesco își vinde diviziile din Cehia și Slovacia către Ahold Delhaize - www.goldring.roSurge — Google News · 01 Nov 2026 · RO
- Tesco îşi vinde diviziile din Cehia şi Slovacia către Ahold Delhaize într-o tranzacţie de 1,7 mld de euroZiarul Financiar · 01 Nov 2026 · RO
- Compania-mamă a Mega Image și Profi cumpără magazinele Tesco din Cehia și Slovacia, pentru 1,7 mld. euro - afaceri.newsSurge — Google News · 01 Nov 2026 · RO
- Compania-mamă a Mega Image și Profi cumpără magazinele Tesco din Cehia și Slovacia, pentru 1,7 mld. euro - afaceri.newsSurge — Google News · 01 Nov 2026 · RO
- Ahold Delhaize cumpără magazinele Tesco din Cehia și Slovacia - EconomediaEconomedia · 31 Oct 2026 · RO
- Proprietarul Mega Image face o nouă tranzacţie gigantică, de peste 1 mld. euro, după preluarea Profi. Surpriza? Pariază pe segmentul hipermarketurilor, considerat de mulţi depăşit de vremuri - BusinessMagazinSurge — Google News · 31 Oct 2026 · RO
- Ahold Delhaize, proprietarul Mega Image și Profi, cumpără peste 460 de magazine Tesco din Cehia și Slovacia, într-o tranzacție de 1,7 miliarde de euroEconomedia · 31 Oct 2026 · RO
- Retail & FMCG – Sinteza săptămânii 26 – 30 octombrie 2026 - retail-FMCG.roSurge — Google News · 31 Oct 2026 · RO
- Proprietarul Mega Image și Profi preia magazinele Tesco din Cehia și Slovacia, tranzacție de 1,7 miliarde de euroProfit.ro · 30 Oct 2026 · RO
- Proprietarul Mega Image preia operaţiunile Tesco din Cehia şi Slovacia / Tranzacție de 1,7 miliarde de euroG4Media · 30 Oct 2026 · RO
- Kivonul a Tesco Csehországból és SzlovákiábólTelex English (HU) · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Eladja csehországi és szlovákiai üzleteit a Tesco, szóba kerültek a magyarországi áruházak isIndex.hu English (HU) · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Tesco Strikes Deal to Sell Czech, Slovakia Unit for €1.7 BillionBloomberg Markets · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- FOSS Weekly #26.44: Ginux, Dead Distros, Resurrected Projects, Dangerous Commands and More (Scary) Linux StuffIt's FOSS · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- In a Setback to VMWare, Tesco is Looking to Migrate to ProxmoxIt's FOSS · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- Tesco replacing VMware with Proxmox in its stores and on the edgeThe Register · 26 Oct 2026 · EN
- Tesco lifts profit forecast and says consumer confidence is resilientThe Guardian World · 08 Oct 2026 · EN
- Tesco is first supermarket to offer paid ‘safe leave’ for victims of domestic abuseThe Guardian World · 02 Oct 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202627 May 2026
- Annual report 202513 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2026-02-28 (ESEF) · SEC / Tesco PLC · 28 Feb 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.