olivLaw · US equity research
Ambev S.A. ABEV
Beverages · SIC 2080 · Vertical: Beverages (SIC 2080)
Ambev S.A. is the largest brewer in Latin America by sales volume and operates directly in 11 countries across the Americas, with net sales of R$ 88,242.5 million in fiscal 2025. The company remains exposed to inflation, the real/dollar exchange rate and economic instability in Argentina, which matter now for its margins and results.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Ambev S.A. (ABEV) stock was 2.76 USD (+4.55% on the day), with beta 0.42, 52-week range 2.30–3.43 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 38.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.53 – 3.57
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.22 · band width 34.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 3.01 / 3.01
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.10 / -0.04
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −15.1% | −1.1% | −14.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −8.9% | −0.5% | −8.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −19.5% | +4.4% | −23.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +11.7% | +12.3% | −0.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +15.5% | +13.5% | +1.9 pp | +1.2% |
| 3 years | +2.2% | +76.4% | −74.2 pp | −35.0% |
| 5 years | −14.3% | +63.7% | −78.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 50.2 bn | 52.0 bn | 58.4 bn | 72.9 bn | 79.7 bn | 79.7 bn | 89.5 bn | 88.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +4.9% | +3.5% | +12.3% | +24.8% | +9.4% | +0.0% | +12.2% | −1.4% |
| Net income | 11.0 bn | 11.8 bn | 11.4 bn | 12.7 bn | 14.5 bn | 14.5 bn | 14.4 bn | 15.5 bn |
| Net income YoY | +51.3% | +7.1% | −3.4% | +11.4% | +14.1% | +0.3% | −0.4% | +7.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.69 | 0.74 | 0.72 | 0.80 | 0.91 | 0.92 | 0.91 | 0.99 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +51.1% | +7.1% | −3.4% | +11.4% | +14.2% | +0.4% | −0.3% | +8.3% |
| net % | 21.9% | 22.7% | 19.5% | 17.4% | 18.1% | 18.2% | 16.1% | 17.6% |
| Free cash flow | 14.8 bn | 13.3 bn | 14.2 bn | 15.2 bn | 14.1 bn | 18.7 bn | 21.3 bn | 19.9 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 18.6 bn BRL
- Financial debt
- 3.4 bn BRL
- Net debt
- -15.3 bn BRL
- Equity
- 88.8 bn BRL
- Total assets
- 145.1 bn BRL
- Debt / equity
- 0.04x
- Current ratio
- 0.96x
- ROE
- 16.5%
- ROA
- 10.1%
- FCF margin
- 22.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (BRL)
Margins
Income statement · BRL
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 58.4 bn | 72.9 bn | 79.7 bn | 79.7 bn | 89.5 bn | 88.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 27.1 bn | 35.7 bn | 40.4 bn | 39.3 bn | 43.6 bn | 42.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 31.3 bn | 37.2 bn | 39.3 bn | 40.4 bn | 45.8 bn | 45.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 16.0 bn | 17.1 bn | 17.7 bn | 18.8 bn | 21.8 bn | 23.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 5.4 bn | 5.4 bn | 7.1 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 13.5 bn | 13.8 bn | 14.2 bn | 15.0 bn | 19.5 bn | 19.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.8 bn | -636.6 m | 655.6 m | -75.5 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Mar 2024verified |
| Net income | 11.4 bn | 12.7 bn | 14.5 bn | 14.5 bn | 14.4 bn | 15.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.72 | 0.80 | 0.91 | 0.92 | 0.91 | 0.99 | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 15.9 bn | 15.9 bn | 15.8 bn | 15.8 bn | 15.8 bn | 15.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · BRL
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 17.1 bn | 16.6 bn | 14.9 bn | 16.1 bn | 28.6 bn | 18.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 4.3 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.7 bn | 6.3 bn | 6.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 7.6 bn | 11.0 bn | 12.9 bn | 9.6 bn | 11.7 bn | 10.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 35.3 bn | 38.6 bn | 37.8 bn | 36.6 bn | 54.2 bn | 43.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 24.8 bn | 29.2 bn | 30.1 bn | 26.6 bn | 30.2 bn | 27.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 40.0 bn | 42.4 bn | 40.6 bn | 38.0 bn | 44.3 bn | 41.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 7.6 bn | 8.7 bn | 9.2 bn | 10.0 bn | 12.5 bn | 11.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 125.2 bn | 138.6 bn | 138.0 bn | 132.6 bn | 162.5 bn | 145.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 19.3 bn | 25.1 bn | 24.3 bn | 23.2 bn | 25.2 bn | 23.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 2.7 bn | 847.1 m | 982.6 m | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 33.5 bn | 38.9 bn | 40.5 bn | 41.0 bn | 49.4 bn | 45.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 50.0 bn | 54.6 bn | 54.6 bn | 52.5 bn | 62.9 bn | 56.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 75.2 bn | 84.0 bn | 83.3 bn | 80.1 bn | 99.6 bn | 88.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 15.7 bn | 15.7 bn | — | 15.8 bn | 15.8 bn | 15.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
Cash flow · BRL
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 18.9 bn | 22.9 bn | 20.6 bn | 24.7 bn | 26.1 bn | 24.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 4.7 bn | 7.7 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.0 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 14.2 bn ≈ | 15.2 bn ≈ | 14.1 bn ≈ | 18.7 bn ≈ | 21.3 bn ≈ | 19.9 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -6.8 bn | -7.7 bn | -5.0 bn | -5.8 bn | -5.5 bn | -5.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -8.6 bn | -16.0 bn | -16.3 bn | -16.1 bn | -10.4 bn | -26.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 100.0 k | — | 1.7 bn | — | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
50% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 26.5% | 77 (vs peers) | 21% |
| Net margin · Quality | 17.6% | 82 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 128.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 3.4% | 29 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 2.7% | 18 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 5.3x | 58 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 14 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth23/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality85/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AMBEV S.A. (ABEV). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 88.2 bn BRL in 2025; YoY growth -1.4%; net margin 17.6%; ROE 16.6%.
The estimated value range is 19.28–33.28 BRL per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 26.5%
- Net margin: 17.6%
- FCF conversion: 128.1%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 3.4%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 2.7%
- Current ratio: 1.0x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Beverages (SIC 2080) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 17 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOCoca Cola Co | 412.1 bn | 28.2 | 42.6% | 28.7% | +1.9% | +31% / +64% |
| DEODIAGEO plc | 237.6 bn | 92.4 | 24.0% | 9.1% | +0.3% | +7% / −30% |
| PEPPepsico Inc | 194.1 bn | 18.7 | 50.1% | 10.8% | +2.3% | −4% / −15% |
| KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc. | 50.1 bn | 37.2 | 5.7% | 7.1% | +8.2% | +32% / +17% |
| BF-ABrown Forman Corp | 14.9 bn | 20.3 | 18.1% | 18.4% | −1.2% | +10% / −48% |
| PRMBPrimo Brands Corp | 7.6 bn | 79.4 | 3.2% | 1.5% | +29.3% | +34% / +46% |
| COCOThe Vita Coco Company, Inc. | 3.7 bn | 32.9 | 32.0% | 15.7% | +18.2% | +23% / +133% |
| WESTWestrock Coffee Company | 1.0 bn | — | — | -4.9% | +39.8% | +138% / +13% |
| BUDABuda Juice, Inc. | 83.2 m | 34.5 | 19.3% | 17.1% | +11.8% | unavailable / unavailable |
| SRXHSRX Global Inc. | 18.0 m | — | -70.8% | -254.8% | −81.3% | −96% / −100% |
| WVVIWillamette Valley Vineyards, Inc. | 8.3 m | — | -3.3% | -5.9% | −6.5% | −37% / −68% |
| YHCLQR House Inc. | 2.9 m | 0.2 | -88.2% | -1,589.2% | −37.4% | −98% / −100% |
| IPSTIp Strategy Holdings, Inc. | 2.3 m | — | -2,713.2% | -2,064.0% | +20.4% | −98% / unavailable |
| EDVAEndovia Health Sciences, Inc. | 1.2 m | — | — | -53,856.5% | −90.9% | −96% / −100% |
| BRCCBRC Inc. | 903.4 k | — | -14.2% | -1.5% | +1.7% | −23% / −77% |
| IBGInnovation Beverage Group Limited | 593.4 k | — | — | -223.4% | −5.1% | −94% / unavailable |
| STZConstellation Brands, Inc. | — | — | 23.9% | 20.9% | −10.5% | +7% / −40% |
| ABEVAmbev S.A. | — | — | 16.6% | 17.6% | −1.4% | +15% / +2% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ABEV from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 03 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (29 Oct 2026), 6-K (22 Oct 2026).
In brief
Ambev S.A. is the largest brewer in Latin America by sales volume and operates directly in 11 countries across the Americas, with net sales of R$ 88,242.5 million in fiscal 2025 1. The company remains exposed to inflation, the real/dollar exchange rate and economic instability in Argentina, which matter now for its margins and results 1.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Currency riskhigh
Devaluation of the currencies where the company operates could raise financial and operating costs 1.
- Inflation in Argentinahigh
High inflation could reduce consumers' purchasing power and sales volumes 1.
- Operational disruptionsmedium
Equipment failures, accidents or logistics problems could partly halt activity 1.
- Beverage taxesmedium
Tax increases could reduce profitability and favour unfair competition 1.
- Climate and water riskslow
Scarce or poor-quality water could raise production costs and limit capacity 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If ecosystem digitization and the BEES platform reach their potential, revenue could grow beyond traditional beer sales 1.
- Rising operating margins show the company's capacity to offset cost pressures through efficiency 1.
- Geographic diversification across four segments could cushion shocks in any single market 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Sales volume trends in Brazil and Latin America SouthQ1 2027
- Impact of Argentine hyperinflation on net revenue2027
- Real/dollar exchange rate and packaging cost trends2027
- Remaining SLU Beverages tranche payments2028
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 03 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (29 Oct 2026), 6-K (22 Oct 2026).
The business
Ambev S.A. is the successor of Brahma and Antarctica, two of the oldest brewers in Brazil, and is listed on the NYSE and B3 1. The company produces, distributes and sells beer, CSDs, other alcoholic beverages and non-alcoholic products directly in 11 countries across the Americas, and its sales volume in 2025 was 175,829.2 thousand hl 1. Operations run through four segments: Brazil, Central America and the Caribbean, Latin America South and Canada 1.
Ambev's strategy rests on its people and culture, three strategic pillars (leading and growing the beer category, digitizing and monetizing the ecosystem through the BEES platform, and optimizing the business) and permanent cost control 1. The company also reports sustainability progress, including 97.5% renewable electricity across all operations 1.
In fiscal 2025 the gross margin was 51.4% and the operating margin 26.4%, both higher than the prior year, while net sales declined slightly 1. Ambev deconsolidated SLU Beverages after selling 61.83% of its interest, which shows active portfolio rotation across its geographies 1.
Segments
Brazil
Brazil, with net sales of R$ 49,030.8 million in fiscal 2025, is the main segment and includes the beer and non-alcoholic beverage (NAB) divisions 1.
Latin America South
Latin America South, covering Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay and Chile, generated net sales of R$ 17,988.3 million in fiscal 2025, down from 2024 1.
Canada
Canada, through Labatt's operations, reported net sales of R$ 10,259.5 million in fiscal 2025, up from the prior year 1.
Market context
Beer demand in Brazil and Latin America is tied to GDP growth and unemployment, and consumption of beer and non-alcoholic drinks follows disposable income 1. Brazilian GDP rose 2.4% in the nine months to September 2025, and unemployment fell to 5.1% by December 2025 1.
Inflation in Argentina remains high, and price and labor cost adjustments could reduce consumers' purchasing power and sales volumes 1. Hyperinflation accounting had a negative impact of R$ 420.7 million on Argentine net revenue in fiscal 2025 1.
Trends
- Inflation and purchasing powerheadwind
Inflation can raise raw material and labor costs but can also reduce consumer demand, as consumers become more price sensitive 1.
- Real/dollar exchange ratemixed
Most sales are in reais, but packaging and ingredients are linked to the dollar, and the real's appreciation in 2025 eased costs if it holds 1.
- Ecosystem digitizationtailwind
The BEES platform and direct-to-consumer digital solutions could open new revenue sources if commercial integration develops 1.
- Tax and sustainability rulesheadwind
Higher beverage taxes and new climate and packaging rules could raise compliance costs 1.
Competitive position
Ambev operates in a sector where competition could reduce margins and raise costs, as the company itself notes in its risk factors 1. Competitors are not named explicitly in the analyzed source, so this profile is limited to the company's own position 1.
Leadership in Latin America by sales volume and a four-segment footprint are the main competitive advantages the company cites 1.
- Anheuser-Busch InBevBUD
Indirect majority shareholder of Ambev, which also completed its combination with SABMiller in 2016 1.
- Cervecería Nacional Dominicana
Dominican Republic company in which Ambev holds a majority stake through Tenedora 1.
- Koscab Holdings
Buyer of the SLU Beverages interest, linked to the Caribbean asset disposal 1.
- Labatt
Canadian brand of Ambev, integrated into the Canada segment 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)22 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)09 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)09 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)09 Sept 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Ambev S.A. · 03 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.