olivLaw · US equity research
Innovation Beverage Group Ltd IBG
Beverages · SIC 2080 · Vertical: Beverages (SIC 2080)
Innovation Beverage Group develops, makes and sells premium beverages, and its main brand, Australian Bitters Company, leads the Australian bitters segment. In 2025 the company reported lower sales and a sharply wider net loss, and it is now in a difficult transition marked by a proposed merger with BlockFuel Energy and serious doubts about its ability to continue as a going concern. Total revenue was 2.772241 million USD in 2025, and the net loss was 6194217 USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Innovation Beverage Group Ltd (IBG) stock was 0.86 USD (+6.48% on the day), with market capitalisation 593.4 k USD, beta 1.35, 52-week range 0.75–13.85 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.9
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.74 – 0.98
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.49 · band width 28.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.92 / 1.58
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.01 / -0.01
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −10.0% | −1.1% | −8.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −8.1% | −0.5% | −7.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −12.8% | +4.4% | −17.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −91.1% | +12.3% | −103.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | −93.4% | +13.5% | −107.0 pp | +6.7% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | −30.5% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.1 m | 2.9 m | 2.8 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −7.2% | −5.1% |
| Net income | -2.0 m | -4.7 m | -6.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.26 | -14.08 | -13.09 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -64.0% | -160.8% | -223.4% |
| Free cash flow | 57.0 k | -1.9 m | -1.6 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 127.8 k USD
- Financial debt
- 24.6 k USD
- Net debt
- -103.1 k USD
- Equity
- -1.5 m USD
- Total assets
- 1.3 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.27x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- -245.0%
- FCF margin
- -56.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.1 m | 2.9 m | 2.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.1 m | 697.2 k | 1.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.1 m | 2.2 m | 1.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Operating income | -2.1 m | -5.1 m | -5.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 252.2 k | 417.7 k | 70.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -1.9 m ≈ | -4.6 m ≈ | -5.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 260.5 k | 292.0 k | 117.6 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -2.3 m | -5.2 m | -5.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Income tax | -241.1 k | -484.8 k | 925.5 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Net income | -2.0 m | -4.7 m | -6.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.26 | -14.08 | -13.09 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 7.8 m | 333.9 k | 473.2 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 14.1 k | 619.9 k | 127.8 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Receivables | 293.7 k | 14.7 k | 49.1 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Inventories | 989.6 k | 1.1 m | 383.7 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.1 m | 2.2 m | 722.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 124.7 k | 86.1 k | 114.8 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 371.6 k | 374.5 k | 356.5 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.9 m | 3.8 m | 1.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 2.3 m | 1.5 m | 1.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | — | 24.6 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 4.3 m | 3.3 m | 2.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 4.3 m | 3.4 m | 2.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Equity | 488.4 k | 415.9 k | -1.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | 8.7 m | 694.1 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 57.5 k | -1.9 m | -1.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Capex | 502 | 7.1 k | 11.3 k | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 57.0 k ≈ | -1.9 m ≈ | -1.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -121.9 k | -7.1 k | 325 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 25.9 k | 2.7 m | 1.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Sept 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 593.4 k USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
25% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -223.4% | 24 (vs peers) | 25% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -45.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -265.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 33% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial24/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Innovation Beverage Group Limited (IBG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.8 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -5.1%; net margin -223.4%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -223.4%
- Interest coverage: -45.8x
- Current ratio: 0.3x
- FCF yield: -265.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Beverages (SIC 2080) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 17 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOCoca Cola Co | 412.1 bn | 28.2 | 42.6% | 28.7% | +1.9% | +31% / +64% |
| DEODIAGEO plc | 237.6 bn | 92.4 | 24.0% | 9.1% | +0.3% | +7% / −30% |
| PEPPepsico Inc | 194.1 bn | 18.7 | 50.1% | 10.8% | +2.3% | −4% / −15% |
| KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc. | 50.1 bn | 37.2 | 5.7% | 7.1% | +8.2% | +32% / +17% |
| BF-ABrown Forman Corp | 14.9 bn | 20.3 | 18.1% | 18.4% | −1.2% | +10% / −48% |
| PRMBPrimo Brands Corp | 7.6 bn | 79.4 | 3.2% | 1.5% | +29.3% | +34% / +46% |
| COCOThe Vita Coco Company, Inc. | 3.7 bn | 32.9 | 32.0% | 15.7% | +18.2% | +23% / +133% |
| WESTWestrock Coffee Company | 1.0 bn | — | — | -4.9% | +39.8% | +138% / +13% |
| BUDABuda Juice, Inc. | 83.2 m | 34.5 | 19.3% | 17.1% | +11.8% | unavailable / unavailable |
| SRXHSRX Global Inc. | 18.0 m | — | -70.8% | -254.8% | −81.3% | −96% / −100% |
| WVVIWillamette Valley Vineyards, Inc. | 8.3 m | — | -3.3% | -5.9% | −6.5% | −37% / −68% |
| YHCLQR House Inc. | 2.9 m | 0.2 | -88.2% | -1,589.2% | −37.4% | −98% / −100% |
| IPSTIp Strategy Holdings, Inc. | 2.3 m | — | -2,713.2% | -2,064.0% | +20.4% | −98% / unavailable |
| EDVAEndovia Health Sciences, Inc. | 1.2 m | — | — | -53,856.5% | −90.9% | −96% / −100% |
| BRCCBRC Inc. | 903.4 k | — | -14.2% | -1.5% | +1.7% | −23% / −77% |
| IBGInnovation Beverage Group Limited | 593.4 k | — | — | -223.4% | −5.1% | −93% / unavailable |
| ABEVAmbev S.A. | — | — | 16.6% | 17.6% | −1.4% | +9% / +1% |
| STZConstellation Brands, Inc. | — | — | 23.9% | 20.9% | −10.5% | +7% / −40% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for IBG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Sept 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (25 Sept 2026), 6-K (18 Sept 2026).
In brief
Innovation Beverage Group develops, makes and sells premium beverages, and its main brand, Australian Bitters Company, leads the Australian bitters segment. In 2025 the company reported lower sales and a sharply wider net loss, and it is now in a difficult transition marked by a proposed merger with BlockFuel Energy and serious doubts about its ability to continue as a going concern 1. Total revenue was 2.772241 million USD in 2025 1, and the net loss was 6194217 USD 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a recognised brand in Australian bitters, award-winning products and in-house production capacity that management says could expand substantially with limited capital spending 1.
- Products are made locally, reducing dependence on imports and allowing short production cycles, an advantage over spirits producers that must age stock in barrels for years 1.
- The management team has experience from large companies in the beverage industry, which supports the development of direct-to-consumer channels 1.
Weaknesses
- The company relies heavily on one brand and one distributor, which makes it vulnerable to changes in that main relationship 1.
- Operating and net losses widened in 2025, and gross margin fell sharply because of inventory adjustments and higher raw material costs 1.
- There are significant doubts about the company's ability to continue as a going concern, and it depends on additional financing to meet its liquidity needs 1.
Opportunities
- Extending the range through exclusive agreements and parallel imports could increase revenue in new categories 1.
- Developing ABC in new European and Asian markets could add export revenue if negotiations with distributors succeed 1.
- If the BlockFuel merger is completed, the company could gain access to a new capital base and a different strategic direction 1.
Threats
- Shifting consumer preferences and stricter rules on sugary drinks or alcohol could reduce demand 1.
- Losing or weakening the relationship with the main distributor could sharply reduce revenue, since that partner accounts for a very large share of sales 1.
- Difficulty obtaining financing on acceptable terms could limit growth and even the continuity of operations 1.
Risks
- Going concern doubtshigh
Management and the auditors flag significant uncertainty about the company's ability to operate for a year, and the plans depend on outside financing 1.
- Dependence on a single brandhigh
A very large share of revenue comes from one brand sold through one channel, which leaves the company exposed to any disruption 1.
- Risk from the BlockFuel mergermedium
Completion depends on financing conditions, shareholder and Nasdaq approvals, and integrating a new business could prove difficult 1.
- Dilution of shareholdersmedium
Share issues, the at-the-market programme and the proposed merger could reduce the stake of existing shareholders 1.
- Production costs and inventorymedium
Inventory adjustments and higher raw material costs cut gross margin, and these pressures could persist if production is not corrected 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the ABC brand keeps its position as the local challenger and grows sales in new markets, the company could rebuild its revenue base 1.
- In-house production capacity and a relatively lean cost structure could support efficient growth if demand recovers 1.
- Completing the BlockFuel merger could bring capital and a new growth direction that changes the company's structure 1.
What would break the thesis
- Falling sales, a large net loss and a declining gross margin could suggest the current model is not sustainable without new capital 1.
- Dependence on one distributor and one brand could expose the company to sudden losses of revenue 1.
- Dilution from share issues and the merger could substantially reduce the gains of existing investors 1.
What to watch
- Completion of the BlockFuel Energy merger and Nasdaq approvals2026
- ABC sales trend and the relationship with Coca-Cola Europacific PartnersQ1 2027
- Whether auditors keep their going concern doubtsnext 20-F
- Recovery of gross margin after the 2025 inventory adjustmentsnext 20-F
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Sept 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (25 Sept 2026), 6-K (18 Sept 2026).
The business
The company, incorporated in Australia in 2018, describes itself as a developer, manufacturer, exporter and retailer of beverages, with a portfolio of 70 formulations across 14 alcoholic and non-alcoholic brands focused on premium and super premium segments 1. Products are made in-house, from maceration and blending to bottling, and sold through large distributors and direct-to-consumer e-commerce platforms 1. Since October 2024 the company has focused on its own brands and stopped retailing third-party brands in the United States 1.
The Australian Bitters Company brand accounted for 94% of revenue in 2025 1, and in Australia it is distributed by Coca-Cola Europacific Partners, whose network reaches over 90% of Australian postcodes 1. Dependence on one brand and one major distributor is a central feature of the company's profile 1.
Segments
Market context
The company estimates the global bitters market at 800 million USD 1 and states that ABC had about 45% of the Australian market by the end of 2025 1. Premium spirits, particularly gin, liqueurs and tequila, have grown faster than mainstream categories since 2020, according to the company's description 1.
The bottled cocktail segment, which the company entered with Twisted Shaker, grew strongly at the start of the pandemic because of its convenience and cost efficiency 1. Its growth outlook remains uncertain over the longer term, particularly given shifting consumer preferences 1.
Trends
- Consumers shifting toward healthier drinksheadwind
Health and obesity concerns, along with taxes on sugary drinks, could reduce demand for parts of the portfolio 1.
- Growth of premium spiritstailwind
Premium spirits such as gin and liqueurs are growing faster than mainstream segments, and younger consumers are the strongest drivers, which offers room to extend the range 1.
- Changing preferences and pressure on consumptionheadwind
Shifting tastes, weaker economic conditions and alcohol regulation could reduce sales in ways the company cannot control 1.
- Local production versus importsmixed
Because ABC is made locally in Australia it has an edge over imported bitters, but that edge depends on keeping its relationship with the main distributor 1.
Competitive position
The company competes with Angostura Bitters, a brand nearly 200 years old that ABC has partly overtaken in Australia 1. In the wider beverage market, competition comes from larger producers with greater resources for distribution and for attracting distributors 1.
The retailers and distributors the company relies on often sell competing products, and the competition for their attention limits its ability to expand 1. Larger beverage companies can offer more attractive terms, which is a constant risk for IBG 1.
- Angostura
Bitters brand of nearly 200 years against which ABC positions itself as the leading Australian challenger 1.
- Coca-Cola Europacific PartnersCCEP
The company's distribution partner for ABC in Australia, and also a market participant through its extensive distribution network 1.
- Sway
Partner holding rights to several of the company's brands in the US and distributing ABC there 1.
- Premium spirits producers
Companies competing in the premium gin, liqueur and tequila segment, where demand is growing fastest 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)25 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 Sept 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)17 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)09 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)22 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 May 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Innovation Beverage Group Ltd · 17 Sept 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.