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olivLaw · US equity research

Affirm Holdings, Inc. AFRM

Personal Credit Institutions · SIC 6141 · Vertical: Personal Credit Institutions (SIC 6141)

75.59USD+5.03% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Affirm Holdings builds a payment network in which consumers pay in installments without compounding interest or late fees, while merchants convert more sales at checkout. The company facilitated purchases of 50.2 billion USD in GMV in fiscal 2026, a volume that makes its installment model a subject of interest for consumer markets.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) stock was 75.59 USD (+5.03% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.5 bn USD, P/E 13.7 on diluted EPS of 5.53 USD over the last 12 months, beta 2.52, 52-week range 42.53–85.78 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q4 2026): revenue of 1.2 bn USD (+33.0% YoY), net income of 1.6 bn USD (+2,234.7% YoY), diluted EPS 4.62 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
4.5 bn USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2020
P/E (TTM)
13.7
Diluted EPS TTM 5.53 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
7.32%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
2.52
Volatility (1y) 59%
52-week range
42.5385.78

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
54.7
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
68.52 – 79.72
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.63 · band width 15.1%
SMA 50 / 200
72.87 / 66.54
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.10 / 0.00
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+1.1%−2.0%+3.1 pp—
3 months−3.7%−2.2%−1.5 pp—
6 months+15.3%+4.3%+11.0 pp—
Year to date+1.6%+10.6%−9.0 pp—
1 year+5.9%+10.5%−4.6 pp+6.1%
3 years+237.0%+73.7%+163.3 pp+121.7%
5 years−54.0%+61.7%−115.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−48.8%
07 Jan 2026 → 27 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−94.5%
08 Nov 2021 → 27 Dec 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
−14.4%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q4 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
1.2 bn USD
+33.0% YoY
Net income
1.6 bn USD
+2,234.7% YoY
Diluted EPS
4.62
+2,568.9% YoY
net / operating
138.7% / 12.6%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26
Revenue698.5 m866.4 m783.1 m876.4 m933.3 m1.1 bn1.0 bn1.2 bn
Operating income-132.6 m-4.3 m-8.4 m58.1 m63.7 m117.6 m88.4 m147.3 m
Depreciation & amortisation46.7 m54.9 m ≈59.5 m ≈64.0 m65.3 m75.6 m ≈75.1 m ≈87.3 m
Interest expense104.1 m107.8 m107.6 m105.9 m110.0 m111.7 m113.8 m118.5 m
Pre-tax income-98.3 m82.9 m5.3 m71.6 m83.0 m133.2 m107.4 m169.1 m
Income tax1.9 m2.5 m2.5 m2.3 m2.3 m3.7 m4.5 m-1.4 bn
Net income-100.2 m80.4 m2.8 m69.2 m80.7 m129.6 m102.9 m1.6 bn
Diluted EPS-0.310.230.010.17 ≈0.230.370.304.62 ≈
Operating cash flow196.9 m312.0 m ≈210.4 m ≈74.6 m374.6 m173.7 m ≈386.5 m ≈296.2 m
Capex44.2 m43.9 m ≈53.0 m ≈51.1 m54.4 m55.7 m ≈61.4 m ≈66.9 m
Share repurchases——0 ≈0——0 ≈0

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 5-quarter history (min 14.8, median 95.0, max 670.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue264.4 m509.5 m870.5 m1.3 bn1.6 bn2.3 bn3.2 bn4.3 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable+92.7%+70.8%+55.0%+17.7%+46.3%+38.8%+32.2%
Net income-120.5 m-112.6 m-441.0 m-707.4 m-985.3 m-517.8 m52.2 m1.9 bn
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable+3,597.9%
Diluted EPS-2.84-2.63-2.94-2.51-3.34-1.670.155.53
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable+3,586.7%
net %-45.6%-22.1%-50.7%-52.4%-62.1%-22.3%1.6%45.3%
Free cash flow-107.1 m-92.3 m-213.4 m-248.5 m-108.6 m290.8 m601.7 m992.6 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Cash
1.6 bn USD
Financial debt
9.8 bn USD
Net debt
8.2 bn USD
Equity
5.5 bn USD
Total assets
15.8 bn USD
Debt / equity
1.79x
Current ratio
unavailable
ROE
45.1%
ROA
14.3%
FCF margin
23.3%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
2.3 bn
2025
3.2 bn
2026
4.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Operating income
2024
-615.8 m
2025
-87.3 m
2026
417.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
169.0 m
2025
225.1 m
2026
303.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
-446.8 m ≈
2025
137.8 m ≈
2026
720.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026derived

Interest expense
2024
344.3 m
2025
425.5 m
2026
454.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2024
-515.5 m
2025
61.5 m
2026
492.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Income tax
2024
2.2 m
2025
9.3 m
2026
-1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Net income
2024
-517.8 m
2025
52.2 m
2026
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
-1.67
2025
0.15
2026
5.53

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
309.9 m
2025
341.0 m
2026
348.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.4 bn
2026
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
427.7 m
2025
572.6 m
2026
685.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Goodwill
2024
533.4 m
2025
534.2 m
2026
524.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2024
13.5 m
2025
12.9 m
2026
26.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Total assets
2024
9.5 bn
2025
11.2 bn
2026
15.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Long-term debt
2024
1.8 bn
2025
7.6 bn
2026
9.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Total liabilities
2024
6.8 bn
2025
8.1 bn
2026
10.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Equity
2024
2.7 bn †
2025
3.1 bn †
2026
5.5 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
450.1 m
2025
793.9 m
2026
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Capex
2024
159.3 m
2025
192.2 m
2026
238.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
290.8 m ≈
2025
601.7 m ≈
2026
992.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-1.3 bn
2025
-1.1 bn
2026
-2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
913.1 m
2025
751.4 m
2026
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Share repurchases
2024
0
2025
250.0 m
2026
0

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Aug 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
32.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
39.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
37.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
3,597.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
3,586.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
65.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
16.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EBIT margin
9.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net margin
45.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
FCF margin
23.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Returns

ROE
45.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
14.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
3.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
8.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
11.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
0.9x
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
unavailable
input data missing

Cash

Operating cash flow
1.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Capital expenditure
238.3 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Free cash flow
992.6 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
FCF conversion
51.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Cash conversion
170.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
4.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
12.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
2.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/E (TTM)
13.7x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Earnings yield
7.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/B
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
1.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
17.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
30.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
3.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
4.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
22.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 35 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40

Closing price

75.59 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 4.5 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
4.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
13.7x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/B
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
17.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
45.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
45.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
32.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

24/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 27 Aug 2026
verified 781derived 84

Score by group

  • Balance sheet0
  • Valuation42
  • Quality39
  • Growth100
  • Returns0

Estimated value range

Low
253.28
USD per share
Mid
372.57
USD per share
High
627.32
USD per share
Price: 75.59 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 392.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 79.7% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 50.10 – 1,168.84 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)456.47 – 1,168.84 (Mid 675.13)
    WACC 6.4% · starting FCFF 1.4 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 84%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/E50.10 – 85.80 (Mid 70.01)
    8 companies used · median multiple 12.7x · quartiles 9.1x – 15.5x
    ATLC, BFH, CACC, ENVA, HAPN, NNI, RM, WRLD
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Personal Credit Institutions (SIC 6141)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 35/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality3.0%8 (on a fixed band)13%
Net margin · Quality45.3%100 (vs peers)8%
FCF conversion · Quality51.4%31 (on a fixed band)8%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth39.0%100 (on a fixed band)10%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet11.3x0 (on a fixed band)13%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet0.9x0 (on a fixed band)8%
Current ratio · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
P/E (TTM) · Valuation13.7x38 (vs peers)13%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation17.6x0 (on a fixed band)13%
FCF yield · Valuation22.2%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.0%0 (on a fixed band)8%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality39/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation42/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.3 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 32.2%; net margin 45.3%; ROE 45.1%; net debt/EBITDA 11.3x.

The estimated value range is 253.28–627.32 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 372.57 USD, the price of 75.59 USD leaves a potential of 392.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 79.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 35/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 45.3%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 39.0%
  • FCF yield: 22.2%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: 3.0%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 11.3x
  • Interest coverage: 0.9x
  • EV/EBITDA: 17.6x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Current ratio, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Personal Credit Institutions (SIC 6141) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
13.7x
vertical median 12.7x
above median (+8.0%)
EV/EBITDA
17.6x
vertical median —
P/S
1.1x
vertical median 1.2x
below median (−13.4%)
P/B
0.8x
vertical median 2.1x
below median (−60.6%)
ROE
45.1%
vertical median 14.8%
above median (+204.0%)
Net margin
45.3%
vertical median 7.0%
above median (+550.9%)
EBIT margin
9.8%
vertical median —
Revenue YoY
32.2%
vertical median 7.2%
above median (+349.1%)
Net debt/EBITDA
11.3x
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.5%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CACCCredit Acceptance Corp5.1 bn16.322.7%14.4%+7.2%+8% / +9%
AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc.4.5 bn13.745.1%45.3%+32.2%+6% / +237%
ENVAEnova International, Inc.4.4 bn12.526.8%10.5%+18.6%+38% / +340%
BFHBread Financial Holdings, Inc.4.0 bn8.315.9%—−19.0%+55% / +273%
HAPNHappen, Inc.1.9 bn9.313.8%—−58.5%−8% / +165%
ATLCAtlanticus Holdings Corp1.5 bn12.824.3%5.8%+50.1%+69% / +223%
WRLDWorld Acceptance Corp751.2 m19.49.9%6.6%+3.7%+4% / +45%
RMRegional Management Corp.353.4 m8.012.6%7.0%+9.7%+4% / +79%
NNINelnet, Inc.—15.38.2%—unavailable−1% / +52%

1- and 3-year price returns: for AFRM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
290.98
Total return 285% · Per year 285%
512.08
Total return 577% · Per year 577%
768.12
Total return 916% · Per year 916%
3 years
345.15
Total return 357% · Per year 66%
677.23
Total return 796% · Per year 108%
1,106.09
Total return 1,363% · Per year 145%
5 years
409.40
Total return 442% · Per year 40%
895.63
Total return 1,085% · Per year 64%
1,592.77
Total return 2,007% · Per year 84%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 169.31
  • Net margin± 118.51
  • Annual revenue growth± 88.39
  • Annual dilution± 9.96

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Affirm Holdings builds a payment network in which consumers pay in installments without compounding interest or late fees, while merchants convert more sales at checkout. The company facilitated purchases of 50.2 billion USD in GMV in fiscal 2026 1, a volume that makes its installment model a subject of interest for consumer markets.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A risk model built on transaction-level data and a large body of loan history is a stated competitive advantage 1.
  • The consumer and merchant network is strengthening, with high repeat use 1.
  • Diversified funding sources, including securitizations and loan sales, support a capital-efficient model 1.

Weaknesses

  • The company relies on a small number of bank partners to originate most loans 1.
  • Many merchant agreements are non-exclusive and carry no volume commitments, which can lead to GMV loss 1.
  • The company has said it may not be able to sustain profitability 1.

Opportunities

  • Expansion into in-store use through Affirm Card could increase transaction frequency 1.
  • New consumer and merchant products, including AI-powered tools, could open additional categories 1.
  • International expansion and integration with new commerce platforms could widen the merchant base 1.

Threats

  • Competition from large banks and digital wallets could pressure prices and market share 1.
  • Changes in regulation could affect the bank-partner model 1.
  • Prolonged periods of high interest rates could weigh on demand and loan quality 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on merchantshigh

    Revenue depends on merchant relationships, and many partners can terminate agreements on short notice 1.

  • Dependence on bank partnershigh

    If agreements with bank partners end and cannot be replaced, the business could be significantly affected 1.

  • Loan performancehigh

    If loans do not perform as expected, the company could incur losses on loans it purchases or holds 1.

  • Fundingmedium

    If funding sources are not renewed or become more expensive, growth capacity could decline 1.

  • Regulation and litigationmedium

    The business is subject to extensive supervision, and violations could lead to fines and reputational harm 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If repeat use and transaction volume keep growing, the model could generate more revenue per customer 1.
  • Expansion into in-store payments and new products could open additional revenue sources 1.
  • If the risk model keeps delivering higher approval rates, the company could gain market share 1.

What would break the thesis

  • Reliance on a few bank partners and on contracts without volume commitments could make revenue more volatile 1.
  • Larger competitors with cheaper funding could pressure prices and margins 1.
  • If regulation changes against the bank-partner model, costs and risks could rise 1.

What to watch

  • Trend in GMV and transactions per active consumerQ1 2027
  • Credit losses and portfolio qualityQ1 2027
  • Funding conditions and loan sales to investors2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Affirm was founded in 2012 and describes its activity as a next-generation payment network built on transparency: the company says it has charged no late fees on missed payments 1. For merchants the service works as a checkout conversion tool, and for consumers as a way to pay over time. In fiscal 2026 the company facilitated 50.2 billion USD in GMV 1, and as of June 30, 2026 it had approximately 571 thousand active merchants 1.

Revenue comes mainly from fees merchants pay on each converted transaction, which are larger on 0% APR financing, and from interest income on simple-interest loans 1. Affirm buys most loans from its originating bank partners, Celtic Bank and Lead Bank, and then sells them to investors or keeps them on balance sheet 1. The company reported approximately 7.0 transactions per active consumer as of June 30, 2026 1, a figure that supports its repeat-use strategy.

The company describes a growth cycle in which each added consumer and merchant makes the network more valuable to others, and costs fall as a share of GMV 1. Repeat use is central: in fiscal 2026, 96% of transactions were driven by repeat consumers 1. If this pattern holds, it could support longer-term margins, but it depends on consumer behaviour and funding conditions.

Segments

Interest-bearing loans

Interest-bearing monthly installment loans make up most of the volume facilitated, at 70% of GMV in fiscal 2026 1. Interest revenue depends on transaction risk, chosen term and the arrangement with the merchant 1.

0% APR financing and Pay-in-X

0% APR installment loans and Pay-in-X plans represented 14% and 16% of GMV in fiscal 2026 respectively 1. Merchant fees are generally larger on 0% APR products, which makes them important for revenue 1.

Affirm Card and Marketplace

Affirm Card lets consumers pay over time or in full and generates revenue from part of the interchange fee shared by card-issuing partners 1. In fiscal 2026, 25% of transactions were initiated through the mobile app, website and Affirm Card 1.

Market context

The installment payment market competes with traditional bank cards, digital wallets and merchants' own pay-over-time options 1. The company shows GMV growing year over year and loans held for investment increasing 36% in fiscal 2026 1. Growth is fuelled by larger purchases and expansion into new merchant categories, which could continue if consumer demand stays solid.

The market also depends on access to funding: the company relies on term and revolving securitizations, warehouse facilities and loan sales to third-party investors 1. If capital market conditions deteriorate, the cost of funding and the ability to sell loans could directly affect results.

Trends

  • Demand for pay over timetailwind

    Consumers increasingly use pay-over-time in online and in-store purchases, which Affirm sees as an opportunity for expansion 1.

  • Repeat usetailwind

    A large share of transactions come from returning customers, which lowers acquisition cost and can improve credit decisions 1.

  • Cost of fundingheadwind

    Capital market conditions and interest rate levels affect the cost of borrowing and investor demand for loans 1.

  • Evolving regulationmixed

    Federal, state and local regulatory changes could alter the bank-partner model and lending conditions 1.

Competitive position

Competition includes traditional bank cards, especially from large issuers, as well as digital wallets and other installment payment providers 1. Many of these competitors are much larger than Affirm, with broader customer bases and cheaper funding, which can give them advantages in pricing and distribution 1.

Merchants increasingly offer proprietary pay-over-time options, which may be shown alongside Affirm at checkout 1. The company says entry barriers are low, so new competitors could emerge quickly 1.

  • SynchronySYF

    Card issuing bank named as a principal competitor to traditional payment methods

  • PayPalPYPL

    Digital wallet and pay-in-installments provider competing directly at checkout

  • BlockXYZ

    Payments company with pay-over-time offerings named among competitors

  • Klarna

    Installment payment provider named as a direct competitor in the pay-over-time category

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Affirm Holdings, Inc. · 27 Aug 2026
  2. [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Affirm Holdings, Inc. · 27 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.