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olivLaw · US equity research

AutoNation, Inc. AN

Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations · SIC 5500 · Vertical: Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations (SIC 5500)

183.47USD+2.78% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

AutoNation is one of the largest automotive retailers in the United States, with a dealership network concentrated in major Sunbelt metropolitan markets and revenue spread across new and used vehicles, service and financing. For investors following the sector it illustrates how parts, service and finance can offset a more volatile demand for new vehicles, amid tariffs and fragile affordability, with revenue of about 13.5 billion dollars in 2025.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, AutoNation, Inc. (AN) stock was 183.47 USD (+2.78% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.9 bn USD, P/E 8.8 on diluted EPS of 20.81 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.81, 52-week range 153.01–229.98 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 7.0 bn USD (−0.4% YoY), net income of 162.3 m USD (−24.5% YoY), diluted EPS 4.87 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
5.9 bn USD
shares as of 28 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.8
Diluted EPS TTM 20.81 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
11.34%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.81
Volatility (1y) 34%
52-week range
153.01229.98

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
62.4
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
144.77 – 183.64
in the upper half of the band · %B 1.00 · band width 23.7%
SMA 50 / 200
175.99 / 193.17
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
2.31 / -1.54
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+13.5%−1.1%+14.6 pp—
3 months−15.0%−0.5%−14.5 pp—
6 months−10.4%+4.4%−14.8 pp—
Year to date−11.1%+12.3%−23.5 pp—
1 year−5.6%+13.5%−19.1 pp+0.3%
3 years+31.1%+76.4%−45.3 pp−0.4%
5 years+48.4%+63.7%−15.3 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−33.5%
29 Jul 2026 → 21 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−33.5%
29 Jul 2026 → 21 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+8.2%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
7.0 bn USD
−0.4% YoY
Net income
162.3 m USD
−24.5% YoY
Diluted EPS
4.87
−13.8% YoY
net / operating
2.3% / 4.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue7.2 bn6.7 bn7.0 bn7.0 bn6.9 bn6.6 bn6.9 bn7.0 bn
Cost of revenue6.0 bn5.5 bn5.7 bn5.8 bn5.7 bn5.3 bn5.7 bn5.8 bn
Gross profit1.2 bn1.2 bn1.3 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn
SG&A833.7 m821.9 m854.7 m850.1 m835.5 m842.2 m856.3 m849.1 m
Operating income339.5 m336.0 m217.6 m372.4 m313.9 m314.3 m319.0 m314.6 m
Interest expense43.4 m42.3 m46.2 m45.1 m46.4 m48.0 m49.9 m51.7 m
Pre-tax income241.8 m———————
Income tax55.7 m58.5 m52.0 m72.5 m52.4 m70.3 m61.7 m53.2 m
Net income186.1 m175.5 m86.4 m215.1 m172.1 m205.4 m182.1 m162.3 m
Diluted EPS4.62 ≈4.452.265.654.70 ≈5.855.394.87
Operating cash flow149.8 m-52.5 m-177.8 m ≈191.7 m ≈150.5 m22.2 m-71.1 m ≈209.3 m ≈
Capex66.3 m75.2 m79.0 m ≈68.9 m ≈86.3 m56.4 m69.6 m ≈75.7 m ≈
Share repurchases104.4 m220.6 m33.2 m ≈176.0 m ≈361.8 m301.0 m168.7 m ≈161.7 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 45 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 4.2, median 9.6, max 20.4; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue21.4 bn21.3 bn20.4 bn25.8 bn27.0 bn26.9 bn26.8 bn27.6 bn
Revenue YoY−0.6%−0.4%−4.4%+26.7%+4.4%−0.1%−0.7%+3.2%
Net income396.0 m450.0 m381.6 m1.4 bn1.4 bn1.0 bn692.2 m649.1 m
Net income YoY−8.9%+13.6%−15.2%+259.8%+0.3%−25.9%−32.2%−6.2%
Diluted EPS4.344.974.3018.3124.2922.7416.9217.04
Diluted EPS YoY−2.0%+14.5%−13.5%+325.8%+32.7%−6.4%−25.6%+0.7%
net %1.8%2.1%1.9%5.3%5.1%3.8%2.6%2.3%
Free cash flow110.2 m499.9 m1.1 bn1.4 bn1.3 bn313.7 m-13.8 m-197.5 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
58.6 m USD
Financial debt
74.7 m USD
Net debt
16.1 m USD
Equity
2.3 bn USD
Total assets
14.4 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.03x
Current ratio
0.84x
ROE
27.1%
ROA
4.7%
FCF margin
-0.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
26.9 bn
2024
26.8 bn
2025
27.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
21.8 bn
2024
22.0 bn
2025
22.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
5.1 bn
2024
4.8 bn
2025
4.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
3.3 bn
2024
3.3 bn
2025
3.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
181.4 m
2024
179.7 m
2025
180.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
1.4 bn
2024
916.7 m
2025
884.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
330.0 m
2024
224.5 m
2025
235.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
1.0 bn
2024
692.2 m
2025
649.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
22.74
2024
16.92
2025
17.04

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
44.9 m
2024
40.9 m
2025
38.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
60.8 m
2024
59.8 m
2025
58.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
762.0 m
2024
774.0 m
2025
693.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
3.0 bn
2024
3.4 bn
2025
3.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
4.3 bn
2024
4.7 bn
2025
4.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
3.8 bn
2024
3.8 bn
2025
4.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
927.8 m
2024
905.9 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
12.0 bn
2024
13.0 bn
2025
14.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
344.7 m
2024
376.6 m
2025
369.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
462.4 m
2024
518.5 m
2025
74.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
5.6 bn
2024
6.3 bn
2025
5.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
2.2 bn †
2024
2.5 bn †
2025
2.3 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
724.0 m
2024
314.7 m
2025
111.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
410.3 m
2024
328.5 m
2025
309.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
313.7 m ≈
2024
-13.8 m ≈
2025
-197.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-569.9 m
2024
12.3 m
2025
-687.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-172.5 m
2024
-300.6 m
2025
557.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
874.4 m
2024
460.0 m
2025
791.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
3.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
0.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
6.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-5.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-6.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-22.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
11.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
0.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-11.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
31.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
17.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
4.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
0.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
30.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
4.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
13.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
6.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
310.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
288.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
22.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
3.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
8 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
58 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
6 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
60 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
5.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
8.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
11.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
256.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
0.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
16.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 36 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40

Closing price

183.47 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 5.9 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
5.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
30.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
3.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 28 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 30 Oct 2026
verified 2648derived 238

Score by group

  • Valuation44
  • Returns100
  • Quality26
  • Balance sheet46
  • Growth3

Estimated value range

Low
201.75
USD per share
Mid
293.09
USD per share
High
456.18
USD per share
Price: 183.47 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 59.7% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 37.4% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 201.75 – 456.18 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E201.75 – 456.18 (Mid 293.09)
    11 companies used · median multiple 14.1x · quartiles 9.7x – 21.9x
    ABG, CASY, CPRT, GPI, KMX, LAD, MUSA, OPLN, PAG, RUSHA, SAH
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations (SIC 5500)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 36/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality2.6%53 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Quality3.2%0 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth0.8%7 (on a fixed band)13%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-11.1%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet6.4x76 (on a fixed band)10%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.8x0 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation8.8x75 (vs peers)16%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation0.4%5 (on a fixed band)13%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns16.9%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet46/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth3/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality26/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation44/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

AUTONATION, INC. (AN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 27.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 3.2%; net margin 2.6%; ROE 30.2%.

The estimated value range is 201.75–456.18 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 293.09 USD, the price of 183.47 USD leaves a potential of 59.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 37.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 36/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Interest coverage: 6.4x
  • P/E (TTM): 8.8x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 16.9%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • FCF conversion: 3.2%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 0.8%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -11.1%
  • Current ratio: 0.8x
  • FCF yield: 0.4%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations (SIC 5500) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 18 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
8.8x
vertical median 14.0x
below median (−37.1%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 6.0x
P/S
0.2x
vertical median 0.4x
below median (−45.3%)
P/B
2.6x
vertical median 1.0x
above median (+151.0%)
ROE
30.2%
vertical median 11.8%
above median (+155.5%)
Net margin
2.6%
vertical median 2.1%
above median (+27.6%)
EBIT margin
4.6%
vertical median 3.9%
above median (+18.8%)
Revenue YoY
3.2%
vertical median 4.4%
below median (−26.7%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.6x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 0.6%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CPRTCopart, Inc.30.2 bn21.016.2%31.8%+0.4%−16% / −35%
CASYCasey’s General Stores, Inc.24.9 bn32.520.0%4.1%+10.2%+18% / +145%
PAGPenske Automotive Group, Inc.13.9 bn15.515.5%2.8%−0.2%+31% / +42%
MUSAMurphy USA Inc.9.1 bn14.199.0%2.9%−4.2%+30% / +36%
KMXCarmax, Inc.7.8 bn26.94.7%1.1%−1.8%+43% / −14%
LADLithia Motors, Inc.6.8 bn9.111.8%2.1%+4.0%−1% / +18%
ANAutonation, Inc.5.9 bn8.830.2%2.6%+3.2%−6% / +31%
OPLNOPENLANE, Inc.4.5 bn22.813.1%9.2%+8.2%+44% / +151%
ABGAsbury Automotive Group, Inc.3.8 bn8.311.8%2.7%+4.7%−10% / −0%
GPIGroup 1 Automotive, Inc3.3 bn8.612.4%1.7%+13.2%−32% / −3%
NXXTNextnrg, Inc.427.3 m——-61.3%+194.7%+108% / −43%
VRMVroom, Inc.36.5 m—-45.0%—−54.2%−66% / unavailable
KXINKaixin Holdings12.2 m—-307.2%-41,788.4%unavailable−96% / −100%
CRMTAmerica’s Car-Mart, Inc.10.5 m—-43.0%-18.6%−7.9%−94% / −98%
JZXNJiuzi Holdings Inc.1.4 m—-90.7%-353.5%+105.9%−86% / −100%
RUSHARush Enterprises, Inc.—14.011.8%3.7%−4.7%+33% / +75%
CVNACarvana Co.00.051.5%6.2%+48.6%+4% / +1,138%
CWHCamping World Holdings, Inc.0—-33.2%-1.6%+4.4%−52% / −74%
SAHSonic Automotive, Inc.—10.319.4%1.3%+6.5%+2% / +25%

1- and 3-year price returns: for AN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
113.24
Total return -38% · Per year -38%
200.57
Total return 9% · Per year 9%
302.62
Total return 65% · Per year 65%
3 years
101.86
Total return -44% · Per year -18%
203.76
Total return 11% · Per year 4%
338.70
Total return 85% · Per year 23%
5 years
91.63
Total return -50% · Per year -13%
207.00
Total return 13% · Per year 2%
379.07
Total return 107% · Per year 16%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 50.94
  • Net margin± 35.66
  • Annual revenue growth± 30.35
  • Annual dilution± 3.00

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (30 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (30 Oct 2026).

In brief

AutoNation is one of the largest automotive retailers in the United States, with a dealership network concentrated in major Sunbelt metropolitan markets and revenue spread across new and used vehicles, service and financing. For investors following the sector it illustrates how parts, service and finance can offset a more volatile demand for new vehicles, amid tariffs and fragile affordability, with revenue of about 13.5 billion dollars in 2025 1.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A large dealership network in growing metropolitan areas gives the group scale and operational density 1.
  • The large weight of service and financing in gross profit reduces dependence on the new vehicle sales cycle 1.
  • The company reported record After-Sales gross profit and adjusted earnings per share growth for six consecutive quarters 3.

Weaknesses

  • New vehicle gross profit fell as costs rose and volumes weakened in the second quarter of 2026 2.
  • The group relies heavily on a few manufacturers, and financial trouble at any one of them could seriously affect operations 1.
  • Goodwill and franchise rights impairments were recorded in 2025, showing the vulnerability of some past acquisitions 1.

Opportunities

  • Expanding AutoNation Finance and raising finance penetration could bring additional revenue 13.
  • Dealership acquisitions in existing markets can improve density and operating efficiency 3.
  • Developing digital channels and online parts sales could attract more customers to the company's stores 1.

Threats

  • Tariffs on imported vehicles can raise prices and reduce demand, with effects on margins 1.
  • If interest rates stay high, the affordability of new vehicles and credit could decline 1.
  • Cyber incidents at third-party suppliers, such as the dealer management system provider, can interrupt operations 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on a few manufacturershigh

    Most new vehicles sold come from a handful of manufacturers, and financial difficulties at one of them could affect inventory, warranty payments and receivables collection 1.

  • Tariffs and costshigh

    Tariffs on imported vehicles and parts can raise costs and prices, and their final effect remains uncertain 12.

  • Credit riskmedium

    The AutoNation Finance portfolio exposes the company to losses if customers cannot repay, especially in harsher economic conditions 13.

  • Asset impairmentsmedium

    The goodwill and franchise rights impairments of 2025 show that the value of some acquisitions can be revised downward if performance weakens 12.

  • Cyber and supplier riskmedium

    A disruption of information systems or of third-party services, as happened in the CDK incident, could affect operations and reputation 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the service and parts business keeps growing, the company could sustain profitability even when new vehicle sales are weak 13.
  • Growth in the finance portfolio and better AutoNation Finance profitability could add a recurring stream of revenue 3.
  • Share repurchases and dealership acquisitions could support earnings per share if executed at reasonable prices 13.

What would break the thesis

  • If new vehicle profitability keeps moderating, revenue from the main line could continue to decline 12.
  • Tariffs and weak vehicle affordability could reduce demand and sales volumes in the coming years 1.
  • Debt and the credit portfolio could become a burden if economic conditions deteriorate 3.

What to watch

  • Trend in new vehicle gross profit and profit per unitQ3 2026
  • Development of the AutoNation Finance portfolio and credit lossesQ4 2026
  • Impact of tariffs on prices and volumes of imported vehicles2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (30 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (30 Oct 2026).

The business

AutoNation, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates one of the largest automotive retail networks in the United States, with 323 new vehicle franchises from 245 stores as of December 31, 2025, mostly in major metropolitan markets in the Sunbelt 1. The company sells 30 different brands, and its core brands, Toyota (including Lexus), Honda, Ford, General Motors, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis and Volkswagen (including Audi and Porsche), represented about 89% of new vehicles sold in 2025 1. Besides new and used vehicle sales, the group includes parts and service, insurance and financing through its captive finance unit AutoNation Finance 1.

In the first half of 2026 revenue fell slightly, down 1% in the second quarter, while net income rose year on year, helped in part by recoveries from the June 2024 CDK outage 23. The company closed dealership acquisitions in June 2026, repurchased shares worth 457 million dollars in the first half of the year, and reported a covenant leverage ratio of 2.8x at quarter-end 3.

Segments

Domestic, Import and Premium Luxury

These three retail segments generate almost all revenue; in 2025 Premium Luxury produced about 37% of revenue, Import 30% and Domestic 27% 1. Premium Luxury has the highest average sales per vehicle, with brands such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW, while Import is dominated by Toyota 1.

AutoNation Finance

The captive auto finance company provides indirect loans to customers buying vehicles from the group's dealerships; its loan portfolio grew to 2.7 billion dollars by June 30, 2026, with profitability improving substantially 3. The company says that expanding the portfolio depends on raising finance penetration rates in its stores 1.

Market context

Tariffs applied from 2025 on imported vehicles and parts could raise costs and prices, limit availability and reduce demand, and their final impact depends on how long and how broadly they apply 1. On the affordability side, financing costs and consumer confidence remain key factors, and electric vehicle sales fell after EV tax credits were phased out at the end of the third quarter of 2025 2.

Trends

  • Moderating new vehicle profitabilityheadwind

    Gross profit per vehicle sold has declined after the post-pandemic period, and the company expects this moderation to continue, partly because of tariffs and affordability concerns 1. If these pressures persist, revenue from the new vehicle line could remain under pressure.

  • Growth in service and partstailwind

    The After-Sales business produced record gross profit in the second quarter of 2026, supported by growth in customer-pay service and parts sales 3. This activity is less sensitive to economic cycles than new vehicle sales 1.

  • Better margins in finance and insurancemixed

    Gross profit per unit in finance and insurance has risen on higher realized margins on service contracts and more customer financing arranged 23. Growth in the AutoNation Finance portfolio adds revenue but also credit risk 1.

  • Consolidation through acquisitions and buybacksmixed

    The company buys dealerships to improve density in existing markets and repurchases shares, which lowers the number of shares outstanding 3. This capital allocation can support earnings per share, but it depends on the availability of opportunities and financing conditions 1.

Competitive position

The U.S. auto retail market is fragmented, and dealership groups compete on price, inventory and customer experience, but also with digital sales platforms 1. Manufacturers can shape competition through incentive programs, and so-called stair-step programs can hurt dealers' ability to compete 1.

AutoNation aims to widen its edge through scale, its digital network and the integration of service and financing, so that it stays competitive against other dealership groups 1. The company also mentions minority stakes in mobility and automotive digital marketplace companies, which points to interest in new sales channels 1.

  • Lithia MotorsLAD

    Identified in the available sources as another large U.S. auto retailer; the supplied sources do not detail its position relative to AutoNation.

  • Group 1 AutomotiveGPI

    An American dealership group named as a significant player in the same retail segment, with no financial details in the supplied sources.

  • Penske Automotive GroupPAG

    An American retailer with premium vehicle dealerships, identified as a competitor in retail, with no figures in the supplied sources.

  • Sonic AutomotiveSAH

    An American dealership group active across several brand segments, named as a retail competitor, with no figures in the supplied sources.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / AutoNation, Inc. · 12 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / AutoNation, Inc. · 31 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / AutoNation, Inc. · 31 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.