olivLaw · US equity research
Casey's General Stores, Inc. CASY
Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations · SIC 5500 · Vertical: Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations (SIC 5500)
Casey's General Stores runs convenience stores and fuel outlets concentrated in the Midwest and in smaller towns, with more than two thousand units. Driven by growth in prepared food sales and better fuel margins, the company reported higher profit in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, which puts attention on how sustainable these gains are.
At the close of 03 Nov 2026, Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) stock was 665.39 USD (−0.42% on the day), with market capitalisation 24.6 bn USD, P/E 32.0 on diluted EPS of 20.76 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.25%, beta 0.37, 52-week range 522.95–916.28 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 5.7 bn USD (+24.3% YoY), net income of 273.7 m USD (+27.1% YoY), diluted EPS 7.37 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.5
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 627.48 – 720.03
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.41 · band width 13.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 665.52 / 742.35
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 4.96 / 5.74
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +7.7% | −2.0% | +9.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −21.8% | −2.2% | −19.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −22.8% | +4.3% | −27.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +20.4% | +10.6% | +9.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +29.5% | +10.5% | +19.1 pp | −5.6% |
| 3 years | +143.2% | +73.7% | +69.6 pp | −0.4% |
| 5 years | +234.5% | +61.7% | +172.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 31 Jul 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.9 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.5 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.7 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.4 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 96.6 m ≈ | 105.2 m ≈ | 107.4 m | 109.0 m | 111.4 m ≈ | 114.1 m ≈ | 115.5 m | 116.0 m |
| Interest expense | 12.6 m | 29.4 m | 27.9 m | 26.9 m | 24.7 m | 23.4 m | 21.7 m | 22.1 m |
| Pre-tax income | 239.7 m | 107.8 m | — | 278.5 m | 274.0 m | 171.4 m | — | 347.0 m |
| Income tax | 58.8 m | 20.7 m | 29.4 m | 63.1 m | 67.7 m | 41.4 m | 50.4 m | 73.3 m |
| Net income | 180.9 m | 87.1 m | 98.3 m | 215.4 m | 206.3 m | 130.1 m | 162.7 m | 273.7 m |
| Diluted EPS | 4.85 | 2.33 | 2.63 ≈ | 5.77 | 5.53 | 3.49 | 4.37 ≈ | 7.37 |
| Operating cash flow | 270.7 m ≈ | 204.9 m ≈ | 333.9 m | 372.4 m | 347.1 m ≈ | 259.5 m ≈ | 398.5 m | 384.1 m |
| Capex | 110.7 m ≈ | 114.3 m ≈ | 180.7 m | 110.0 m | 171.1 m ≈ | 183.7 m ≈ | 191.1 m | 194.4 m |
| Dividends paid | 18.6 m ≈ | 18.6 m ≈ | 18.6 m | 19.7 m | 21.2 m ≈ | 21.2 m ≈ | 21.1 m | 22.3 m |
| Share repurchases | 734.0 k ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | 31.3 m | 31.3 m ≈ | 74.8 m ≈ | 63.2 m | 44.9 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 91 percentile of its own 43-quarter history (min 11.6, median 23.4, max 42.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.4 bn | 9.2 bn | 8.7 bn | 13.0 bn | 15.1 bn | 14.9 bn | 15.9 bn | 17.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +11.5% | −1.9% | −5.1% | +48.8% | +16.5% | −1.5% | +7.3% | +10.2% |
| Net income | 203.9 m | 263.8 m | 312.9 m | 339.8 m | 446.7 m | 502.0 m | 546.5 m | 714.4 m |
| Net income YoY | −35.9% | +29.4% | +18.6% | +8.6% | +31.5% | +12.4% | +8.9% | +30.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 5.51 | 7.10 | 8.38 | 9.10 | 11.91 | 13.43 | 14.64 | 19.16 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −33.9% | +28.9% | +18.0% | +8.6% | +30.9% | +12.8% | +9.0% | +30.9% |
| net % | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% |
| Free cash flow | 135.9 m | 65.3 m | 362.8 m | 462.3 m | 405.4 m | 370.9 m | 584.6 m | 721.6 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Apr 2026
- Cash
- 523.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 2.4 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.9 bn USD
- Equity
- 4.0 bn USD
- Total assets
- 8.9 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.62x
- Current ratio
- 1.01x
- ROE
- 19.2%
- ROA
- 8.3%
- FCF margin
- 4.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.7 bn | 13.0 bn | 15.1 bn | 14.9 bn | 15.9 bn | 17.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 6.4 bn | 10.2 bn | 12.0 bn | 11.5 bn | 12.2 bn | 13.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.4 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | 3.1 bn ≈ | 3.3 bn ≈ | 3.8 bn ≈ | 4.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026derived |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 265.2 m | 303.5 m | 313.1 m | 349.8 m | 403.6 m | 450.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 46.7 m | 57.0 m | 51.8 m | 53.4 m | 84.0 m | 96.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Income tax | 94.5 m | 100.9 m | 140.8 m | 154.2 m | 165.9 m | 222.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Net income | 312.9 m | 339.8 m | 446.7 m | 502.0 m | 546.5 m | 714.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 8.38 | 9.10 | 11.91 | 13.43 | 14.64 | 19.16 | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 37.4 m | 37.4 m | 37.5 m | 37.4 m | 37.3 m | 37.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.32 | 1.39 | 1.52 | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jun 2023verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 336.5 m | 158.9 m | 378.9 m | 206.5 m | 326.7 m | 523.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Inventories | 286.6 m | 396.2 m | 376.1 m | 428.7 m | 480.0 m | 557.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Current assets | 723.6 m | 725.0 m | 921.0 m | 829.9 m | 1.0 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 3.5 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.7 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Sept 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 161.1 m | 612.9 m | 615.3 m | 652.7 m | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.5 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.3 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 355.5 m | 588.8 m | 560.5 m | 569.5 m | 620.4 m | 823.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 2.4 m | 24.5 m | 52.9 m | 53.2 m | 94.9 m | 101.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 612.7 m | 904.7 m | 927.1 m | 953.5 m | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.5 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.3 bn | 4.7 bn | 5.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.9 bn † | 2.2 bn † | 2.7 bn † | 3.0 bn † | 3.5 bn † | 4.0 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 804.1 m | 788.7 m | 882.0 m | 893.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Capex | 441.3 m | 326.5 m | 476.6 m | 522.0 m | 506.2 m | 655.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 362.8 m ≈ | 462.3 m ≈ | 405.4 m ≈ | 370.9 m ≈ | 584.6 m ≈ | 721.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -444.3 m | -1.2 bn | -545.0 m | -825.4 m | -1.7 bn | -755.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -101.5 m | 191.6 m | -116.9 m | -240.0 m | 756.0 m | -425.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 48.0 m | 51.2 m | 55.6 m | 62.9 m | 72.3 m | 83.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 0 | 104.9 m | 734.0 k | 200.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 49 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 24.6 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation15
- Returns50
- Quality80
- Balance sheet18
- Growth72
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 19.97 – 376.53 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)222.99 – 376.53 (Mid 281.94)WACC 8.9% · starting FCFF 726.1 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E185.99 – 368.81 (Mid 289.76)11 companies used · median multiple 14.0x · quartiles 9.0x – 17.8xABG, AN, CPRT, GPI, KMX, LAD, MUSA, OPLN, PAG, RUSHA, SAH
- Dividend discount (DDM)19.97 – 26.86 (Mid 22.91)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 49/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.1% | 82 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 84.0% | 77 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 5.2% | 43 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 17.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 18 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 32.0x | 0 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 2.6% | 33 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.2% | 17 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 13.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial18/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth72/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality80/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation15/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
CASEY’S GENERAL STORES, INC. (CASY). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-07-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 17.6 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 10.2%; net margin 4.1%; ROE 20.0%.
The estimated value range is 185.99–368.81 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 281.94 USD, the price of 665.39 USD leaves a potential of -57.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -136.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 49/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 4.1%
- FCF conversion: 84.0%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 17.2%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 13.2%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 1.0x
- P/E (TTM): 32.0x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.2%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations (SIC 5500) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 18 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPRTCopart, Inc. | 28.8 bn | 20.0 | 16.2% | 31.8% | +0.4% | −20% / −38% |
| CASYCasey’s General Stores, Inc. | 24.6 bn | 32.0 | 20.0% | 4.1% | +10.2% | +30% / +143% |
| PAGPenske Automotive Group, Inc. | 13.9 bn | 15.5 | 15.5% | 2.8% | −0.2% | +31% / +42% |
| MUSAMurphy USA Inc. | 9.1 bn | 14.1 | 99.0% | 2.9% | −4.2% | +30% / +36% |
| KMXCarmax, Inc. | 7.8 bn | 26.9 | 4.7% | 1.1% | −1.8% | +43% / −14% |
| LADLithia Motors, Inc. | 6.8 bn | 9.1 | 11.8% | 2.1% | +4.0% | −1% / +18% |
| ANAutonation, Inc. | 5.9 bn | 8.8 | 30.2% | 2.6% | +3.2% | −13% / +36% |
| OPLNOPENLANE, Inc. | 4.5 bn | 24.5 | 13.4% | 9.7% | +8.2% | +44% / +151% |
| ABGAsbury Automotive Group, Inc. | 3.8 bn | 8.3 | 11.8% | 2.7% | +4.7% | −10% / −0% |
| GPIGroup 1 Automotive, Inc | 3.3 bn | 8.6 | 12.4% | 1.7% | +13.2% | −32% / −3% |
| NXXTNextnrg, Inc. | 427.3 m | — | — | -61.3% | +194.7% | +108% / −43% |
| VRMVroom, Inc. | 36.5 m | — | -45.0% | — | −54.2% | −66% / unavailable |
| KXINKaixin Holdings | 12.2 m | — | -307.2% | -41,788.4% | unavailable | −96% / −100% |
| CRMTAmerica’s Car-Mart, Inc. | 10.5 m | — | -43.0% | -18.6% | −7.9% | −94% / −98% |
| JZXNJiuzi Holdings Inc. | 1.4 m | — | -90.7% | -353.5% | +105.9% | −86% / −100% |
| RUSHARush Enterprises, Inc. | — | 14.0 | 11.8% | 3.7% | −4.7% | +33% / +75% |
| CVNACarvana Co. | 0 | 0.0 | 51.5% | 6.2% | +48.6% | +4% / +1,138% |
| CWHCamping World Holdings, Inc. | 0 | — | -33.2% | -1.6% | +4.4% | −52% / −74% |
| SAHSonic Automotive, Inc. | — | 10.3 | 19.4% | 1.3% | +6.5% | +2% / +25% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CASY from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 398.74 Total return -40% · Per year -40% | 704.72 Total return 6% · Per year 6% | 1,061.19 Total return 59% · Per year 59% |
| 3 years | 392.25 Total return -41% · Per year -16% | 779.54 Total return 17% · Per year 5% | 1,288.12 Total return 94% · Per year 25% |
| 5 years | 385.87 Total return -42% · Per year -10% | 862.30 Total return 30% · Per year 5% | 1,563.58 Total return 135% · Per year 19% |
- Exit P/E± 194.88
- Net margin± 136.42
- Annual revenue growth± 111.26
- Annual dilution± 11.46
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Casey's General Stores runs convenience stores and fuel outlets concentrated in the Midwest and in smaller towns, with more than two thousand units. Driven by growth in prepared food sales and better fuel margins, the company reported higher profit in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, which puts attention on how sustainable these gains are.
SWOT
Strengths
- A large store network concentrated in smaller towns where competition is limited, and a high share of owned real estate.
- Strong margins in prepared food and grocery, which generate high gross profit relative to revenue.
- A loyalty program with over ten million members and an in-house distribution network.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on fuel, which makes up a large share of revenue and has volatile margins.
- Geographic concentration in the Midwest, which exposes results to regional economic conditions.
- Operating expenses keep rising, and credit card fees grow with sales.
Opportunities
- Extending the prepared food program across the network and integrating the Fikes acquisition.
- The new three-year strategic plan and store acquisitions could add growth.
- EV charging stations could draw traffic if demand grows.
Threats
- Volatile fuel and food prices could compress margins.
- Cyber-attacks and data security incidents could damage reputation and sales.
- Shortages of drivers and staff could raise costs and disrupt distribution.
Risks
- Data securityhigh
A cyber incident or data leak could lead to litigation and losses not fully covered by insurance 1.
- Food safetymedium
Food safety issues could damage the brand and reduce sales of prepared food 1.
- Food input costsmedium
Cheese, proteins and other commodities can swing sharply in cost and may be hard to pass on to customers 1.
- Distribution and staffingmedium
A disruption to the distribution network or shortages of drivers and staff could affect store operations 1.
- Fuel handling hazardslow
Storing and transporting fuel carries risks of fire, pollution and liability that are not always insured 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Higher first-quarter profit and positive guidance for fiscal 2027 suggest the prepared food store model can sustain growth 3.
- Network density in smaller towns and ongoing acquisitions could widen market share with limited direct competition.
- Inside and fuel margins both rose, which points to effective cost management 3.
What would break the thesis
- If fuel prices fall or margins compress, profit could drop quickly, since fuel dominates revenue 1.
- Operating costs are growing faster than same-store sales, which could erode margins over time 3.
- Geographic concentration and reliance on acquisitions could expose the company to integration and market risks.
What to watch
- Inside same-store sales and prepared food margin trendQ2 2027
- Delivery of the 8% to 10% EBITDA growth guidancefiscal 2027
- Number of new and acquired stores openedfiscal 2027
- New three-year strategic plan and Fikes integration progressnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Total revenue was 17,561.101 million USD in fiscal 2026 1, up 10.2% 1. Fuel made up 60.4% of revenue 1, but prepared food, dispensed beverages, grocery and general merchandise generate a much larger share of gross profit, making the food strategy a key driver of margin 1. The company runs three distribution centers and a fuel terminal in Waco, Texas 1.
In the first quarter of fiscal 2027, revenue rose 24.3% 2 and diluted EPS was 7.37 USD 3, 27.7% higher than a year earlier 3. The increase was supported by better inside and fuel margins 3. The company released a new three-year strategic plan in June 2026 3.
Market context
The US convenience and fuel market is fragmented, with local operators, national chains and expanded fuel stations. Casey's focuses its expansion on smaller towns and the Midwest, where national presence is weaker. The company had 2,959 stores on July 31, 2026 2, and in fiscal 2027 it expects to open at least 120 stores through acquisitions and new construction 3.
Fiscal 2027 guidance calls for inside same-store sales growth of 2% to 5% and EBITDA growth of 8% to 10% 3. These estimates depend on demand, fuel prices and operating costs, all subject to uncertainty.
Trends
- Prepared food growthtailwind
Whole pizzas, sandwiches and chicken wings support in-store traffic and margin, and the wings are being extended across the network 1. If this trend holds, inside margin could stay high.
- Fuel price volatilitymixed
Pump prices rose in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 2, which can lift revenue but also acquisition costs. Fuel margins can swing widely from quarter to quarter 1.
- Card fees and operating costsheadwind
Credit card fees rise with sales and with fuel prices 1, and operating expenses rose in the first quarter 3. This could reduce profit if not offset.
Competitive position
The company competes with local grocery and convenience stores, expanded fuel stations and dollar stores in small towns, and with supermarkets, drug store chains and national convenience chains in larger communities 1. Competition on fuel price and location is intense 1.
Its advantage is its position in smaller towns, where few national chains operate 1. Pressure rises in more populated areas, where larger chains with expanded fuel offerings have greater buying power 1.
- Local grocery and convenience stores
Compete with Casey's in smaller towns and in larger cities, according to the 10-K.
- Expanded fuel stations
Offer a wider range of food and fuel, mainly in populated areas.
- Dollar stores
Compete with Casey's in small towns through low prices on everyday goods.
- National drug store and supermarket chains
Present in larger cities with competing food and non-food assortments.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Casey’s General Stores (CASY) Beat Estimates, So Why Did Wall Street Cut Its Targets?Yahoo Finance — News · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Casey’s (CASY) Beats on Profit, but a Soft Sales Number Sends the Stock TumblingYahoo Finance — News · 20 Sept 2026 · EN
- Jim Cramer Notes Oil Is Behind Pressure on Casey’s (CASY) and Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)Yahoo Finance — News · 19 Sept 2026 · EN
- Jim Cramer Flags Casey’s (CASY) as a Warning Sign for Consumer SpendingYahoo Finance — News · 12 Sept 2026 · EN
- Casey’s General Stores (CASY) Grew EBITDA 17.1%. Can Fuel Sustain Growth?Yahoo Finance — News · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Casey’s (CASY) Growth Plan Is Gaining Traction—Can It Keep Delivering?Yahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Meta, Centerspace, Apple, Casey's General Stores, Signet & moreCNBC — Top News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Casey's shares slide despite earnings beat as inside sales growth disappointsYahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Casey's General Stores, Inc. Q1 2027 Earnings Call SummaryYahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Apple, Casey's General Store, Signet Jewelers & moreCNBC — Top News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Casey's Stock: Analyst Estimates & RatingsYahoo Finance — News · 27 Aug 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report08 Sept 2026
- Current report08 Sept 2026Results of operations · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement22 Jul 2026
- Current report24 Jun 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report22 Jun 2026
- Current report09 Jun 2026Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report09 Mar 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report09 Mar 2026
- Current report09 Dec 2025Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-04-30 · SEC / Casey's General Stores, Inc. · 22 Jun 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-31 · SEC / Casey's General Stores, Inc. · 08 Sept 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Casey's General Stores, Inc. · 08 Sept 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.