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olivLaw · US equity research

OPENLANE, Inc. OPLN

Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations · SIC 5500 · Vertical: Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations (SIC 5500)

36.76USD−5.45% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

OPENLANE operates a digital marketplace for wholesale used vehicles across the United States, Canada and Europe, connecting manufacturers, dealers, rental companies and lenders. The company reported a GMV of 28.8 billion USD in 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 its growth was supported by a higher flow of off-lease vehicles.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, OPENLANE, Inc. (OPLN) stock was 36.76 USD (−5.45% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.5 bn USD, P/E 22.8 on diluted EPS of 1.61 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.89, 52-week range 24.49–42.90 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 561.2 m USD (+12.6% YoY), net income of 44.7 m USD (−6.7% YoY), diluted EPS 0.36 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
4.5 bn USD
shares as of 31 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
22.8
Diluted EPS TTM 1.61 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
4.39%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.00%
DPS 12m 0.00
Beta (2y)
0.89
Volatility (1y) 33%
52-week range
24.4942.90

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
47.2
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
35.66 – 39.43
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.29 · band width 10.0%
SMA 50 / 200
35.96 / 34.27
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.71 / 0.73
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+4.1%−1.1%+5.2 pp—
3 months−3.8%−0.5%−3.4 pp—
6 months+2.3%+4.4%−2.1 pp—
Year to date+23.4%+12.3%+11.1 pp—
1 year+38.4%+13.5%+24.9 pp−5.6%
3 years+149.7%+76.4%+73.3 pp−0.4%
5 years+150.8%+63.7%+87.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−22.1%
26 Jun 2026 → 21 Aug 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−41.0%
25 Feb 2022 → 30 Sept 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+20.2%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
561.2 m USD
+12.6% YoY
Net income
44.7 m USD
−6.7% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.36
+44.0% YoY
net / operating
8.0% / 12.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue455.0 m460.1 m481.7 m498.4 m494.3 m527.9 m554.6 m561.2 m
Cost of revenue244.5 m241.6 m254.4 m270.2 m275.5 m271.7 m306.4 m309.3 m
SG&A99.7 m107.2 m114.3 m110.9 m112.8 m124.4 m123.8 m123.4 m
Operating income79.0 m51.7 m47.4 m55.0 m42.5 m73.8 m67.5 m70.4 m
Depreciation & amortisation23.0 m22.7 m23.0 m22.7 m23.3 m22.9 m22.3 m21.5 m
Interest expense4.6 m4.0 m3.1 m1.1 m9.9 m10.1 m10.0 m10.0 m
Pre-tax income69.0 m52.7 m51.7 m56.1 m31.7 m65.3 m61.1 m60.1 m
Income tax16.7 m15.8 m18.3 m8.2 m-27.8 m16.4 m16.8 m15.4 m
Net income52.3 m36.9 m33.4 m47.9 m59.5 m48.9 m44.3 m44.7 m
Diluted EPS0.48 ≈0.180.150.250.58 ≈0.350.320.36
Operating cash flow—122.6 m71.6 m ≈72.2 m ≈—159.6 m52.8 m ≈97.1 m ≈
Capex14.0 m11.9 m14.2 m ≈14.6 m ≈14.7 m13.1 m13.8 m ≈13.8 m ≈
Share repurchases0100.0 k9.3 m ≈26.4 m ≈9.8 m25.7 m22.5 m ≈43.3 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 59 percentile of its own 34-quarter history (min 6.7, median 14.8, max 640.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019⚠ 202020212022202320242025
Revenue2.4 bn2.8 bn1.3 bn1.5 bn1.5 bn1.7 bn1.8 bn1.9 bn
Revenue YoY+9.1%+13.9%—+9.3%+5.4%+10.9%+5.5%+8.2%
Net income328.0 m188.5 m500.0 k66.5 m241.2 m-154.1 m109.9 m177.7 m
Net income YoY−9.4%−42.5%—+13,200.0%+262.7%−163.9%unavailable+61.7%
Diluted EPS2.421.42-0.350.161.30-1.820.45-0.96
Diluted EPS YoY−7.6%−41.3%—unavailable+712.5%−240.0%unavailable−313.3%
net %13.4%6.8%0.0%4.6%15.8%-9.1%6.1%9.2%
Free cash flow618.5 munavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable

The series breaks before 2020: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
141.5 m USD
Financial debt
530.1 m USD
Net debt
388.6 m USD
Equity
1.2 bn USD
Total assets
4.7 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.43x
Current ratio
1.16x
ROE
13.8%
ROA
3.8%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
867.6 m
2024
956.3 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
828.1 m ≈
2024
832.2 m ≈
2025
892.8 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived

SG&A
2023
421.8 m
2024
408.6 m
2025
445.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-135.8 m
2024
182.2 m
2025
196.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
101.5 m
2024
95.2 m
2025
91.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-34.3 m ≈
2024
277.4 m ≈
2025
288.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
25.2 m
2024
21.8 m
2025
18.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-146.5 m
2024
157.9 m
2025
192.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
8.3 m
2024
48.0 m
2025
14.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
-154.1 m
2024
109.9 m
2025
177.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-1.82
2024
0.45
2025
-0.96

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
109.1 m
2024
109.2 m
2025
106.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Mar 2023verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
93.5 m
2024
143.0 m
2025
141.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
291.8 m
2024
248.2 m
2025
314.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
2.8 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
3.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
169.8 m
2024
149.3 m
2025
104.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
136.1 m
2024
117.7 m
2025
102.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
4.7 bn
2024
4.6 bn
2025
4.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
556.6 m
2024
547.6 m
2025
665.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
154.6 m
2024
222.5 m
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Aug 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
202.4 m
2024
0
2025
530.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
2.5 bn
2024
2.6 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
1.3 bn †
2024
1.3 bn †
2025
1.2 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Capex
2023
52.0 m
2024
53.0 m
2025
55.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Mar 2023verified

Share repurchases
2023
22.2 m
2024
30.0 m
2025
45.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
8.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
8.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
7.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
7.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
61.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-9.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
223.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-313.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
45.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
16.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
11.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
9.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
13.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
3.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
14.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
11.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
283.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
0.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
6.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
Capital expenditure
55.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
66 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
238 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
4.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
4.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
22.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
22.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
4.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
2.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
13.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
18.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
2.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 44 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

36.76 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 4.5 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
4.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
22.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
13.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
13.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
9.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
8.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 04 Nov 2026
verified 2499derived 61

Score by group

  • Valuation14
  • Returns32
  • Quality67
  • Balance sheet48
  • Growth68

Estimated value range

Low
12.96
USD per share
Mid
15.59
USD per share
High
19.51
USD per share
Price: 36.76 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -57.6% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -135.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 11.58 – 24.40 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA11.58 – 14.62 (Mid 11.63)
    3 companies used · median multiple 4.9x · quartiles 4.9x – 6.0x
    ABG, CWH, MUSA
  • Peers: P/E14.33 – 24.40 (Mid 19.55)
    10 companies used · median multiple 12.1x · quartiles 8.9x – 15.1x
    ABG, AN, CPRT, GPI, KMX, LAD, MUSA, PAG, RUSHA, SAH
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations (SIC 5500)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 44/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality14.4%50 (vs peers)14%
Net margin · Quality9.2%94 (vs peers)9%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth8.2%68 (on a fixed band)11%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet0.8x40 (vs peers)14%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet6.4x75 (on a fixed band)9%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.2x30 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation22.8x17 (vs peers)14%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation13.8x11 (on a fixed band)14%
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns2.3%32 (on a fixed band)9%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet48/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial68/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality67/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial32/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation14/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

OPENLANE, Inc. (OPLN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 8.2%; net margin 9.2%; ROE 13.1%; net debt/EBITDA 0.8x.

The estimated value range is 12.96–19.51 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 15.59 USD, the price of 36.76 USD leaves a potential of -57.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -135.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 44/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 9.2%
  • Interest coverage: 6.4x

What contradicts it

  • P/E (TTM): 22.8x
  • EV/EBITDA: 13.8x
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations (SIC 5500) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 18 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
22.8x
vertical median 12.1x
above median (+88.0%)
EV/EBITDA
13.8x
vertical median 4.9x
above median (+179.9%)
P/S
2.1x
vertical median 0.3x
above median (+637.0%)
P/B
2.8x
vertical median 1.0x
above median (+174.4%)
ROE
13.1%
vertical median 11.8%
above median (+11.1%)
Net margin
9.2%
vertical median 2.1%
above median (+347.4%)
EBIT margin
11.9%
vertical median 3.9%
above median (+207.0%)
Revenue YoY
8.2%
vertical median 4.0%
above median (+104.2%)
Net debt/EBITDA
0.8x
vertical median 0.4x
above median (+95.0%)
Dividend yield
0.0%
vertical median 0.8%
below median (−100.0%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CPRTCopart, Inc.30.2 bn21.016.2%31.8%+0.4%−16% / −35%
CASYCasey’s General Stores, Inc.24.9 bn32.520.0%4.1%+10.2%+18% / +145%
PAGPenske Automotive Group, Inc.13.9 bn15.515.5%2.8%−0.2%+31% / +42%
MUSAMurphy USA Inc.9.1 bn14.199.0%2.9%−4.2%+30% / +36%
KMXCarmax, Inc.7.8 bn26.94.7%1.1%−1.8%+43% / −14%
LADLithia Motors, Inc.6.8 bn9.111.8%2.1%+4.0%−1% / +18%
ANAutonation, Inc.5.9 bn8.830.2%2.6%+3.2%−13% / +36%
OPLNOPENLANE, Inc.4.5 bn22.813.1%9.2%+8.2%+38% / +150%
ABGAsbury Automotive Group, Inc.3.8 bn8.311.8%2.7%+4.7%−10% / −0%
GPIGroup 1 Automotive, Inc3.3 bn8.612.4%1.7%+13.2%−32% / −3%
NXXTNextnrg, Inc.427.3 m——-61.3%+194.7%+108% / −43%
VRMVroom, Inc.36.5 m—-45.0%—−54.2%−66% / unavailable
KXINKaixin Holdings12.2 m—-307.2%-41,788.4%unavailable−96% / −100%
CRMTAmerica’s Car-Mart, Inc.10.5 m—-43.0%-18.6%−7.9%−94% / −98%
JZXNJiuzi Holdings Inc.1.4 m—-90.7%-353.5%+105.9%−86% / −100%
RUSHARush Enterprises, Inc.—14.011.8%3.7%−4.7%+33% / +75%
CVNACarvana Co.00.051.5%6.2%+48.6%+4% / +1,138%
CWHCamping World Holdings, Inc.0—-33.2%-1.6%+4.4%−52% / −74%
SAHSonic Automotive, Inc.—10.319.4%1.3%+6.5%+2% / +25%

1- and 3-year price returns: for OPLN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
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Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
22.71
Total return -38% · Per year -38%
40.09
Total return 9% · Per year 9%
60.29
Total return 64% · Per year 64%
3 years
23.69
Total return -36% · Per year -14%
46.89
Total return 28% · Per year 8%
77.19
Total return 110% · Per year 28%
5 years
24.71
Total return -33% · Per year -8%
54.84
Total return 49% · Per year 8%
98.83
Total return 169% · Per year 22%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 11.72
  • Net margin± 8.21
  • Annual revenue growth± 6.51
  • Annual dilution± 0.69

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).

In brief

OPENLANE operates a digital marketplace for wholesale used vehicles across the United States, Canada and Europe, connecting manufacturers, dealers, rental companies and lenders. The company reported a GMV of 28.8 billion USD in 2025 1, and in the second quarter of 2026 its growth was supported by a higher flow of off-lease vehicles 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A leading position in the digital wholesale marketplace, with exclusive access to a major share of off-lease vehicles 1.
  • An asset-light model in which the company generally does not take title to vehicles, which lowers capital needs 1.
  • Integration with AFC, which brings financing, a dealer base and service revenue 13.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on the volume of vehicles available, which moves with new vehicle sales and manufacturer leasing behavior 1.
  • Large technology investments and system migrations carry execution risk and short-term costs 1.
  • Exposure to independent dealer credit, where losses could rise if wholesale prices fall 1.

Opportunities

  • A higher flow of off-lease vehicles from 2026 could support marketplace volumes 12.
  • Growth in dealer-to-dealer sales through digital tools and new recurring-revenue products 13.
  • A higher attach rate of AFC financing products across the marketplaces 1.

Threats

  • New digital entrants and traditional auction operators that could reduce market share 1.
  • Tariffs and trade conflicts that could reduce the number of vehicles available 12.
  • Falling used vehicle prices, which could increase AFC credit losses 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on vehicle volumehigh

    If the number of vehicles entering the wholesale market declines, fee revenue could be directly affected 1.

  • Digital competitionhigh

    Digital competitors and new entrants could gain market share, especially in dealer-to-dealer sales 1.

  • AFC credit riskmedium

    A fall in used vehicle prices could increase losses on defaulted dealer loans 1.

  • Technology and ERP riskmedium

    Delays or problems in migrating systems could disrupt operations and customer relationships 1.

  • Transport and fuel costslow

    Higher fuel prices could raise logistics costs and compress margins on ancillary services 2.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Higher commercial volumes and GMV in the second quarter suggest the digital model can benefit from a favorable leasing cycle 3.
  • The raised 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance suggests that investments made in 2025 are starting to pay off 3.
  • Combining the marketplace with AFC could strengthen the company's position in the wholesale sales chain 13.

What would break the thesis

  • If the leasing cycle slows, volumes could fall quickly and revenues could return to earlier levels 1.
  • High technology and go-to-market costs could limit margins, especially if revenue growth slows 13.
  • Trade tensions and energy prices could weigh on demand and logistics costs in coming quarters 2.

What to watch

  • Trend in off-lease vehicle volumes and GMVQ3 2026
  • Delivery against the revised 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance2026
  • Credit quality of the AFC portfolio and level of lossesnext 10-K
  • Impact of tariffs and transport costs on volumes2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).

The business

OPENLANE runs a digital marketplace for wholesale used vehicles with an asset-light model: the company generally does not take title to vehicles and earns buy and sell fees, plus ancillary services such as transport, reconditioning, inspection and titling 1. In 2025 there were approximately 1.5 million annual transactions 1. The company was rebranded as OPENLANE in 2023 and moved to the ticker OPLN in December 2025 1.

Segments

Marketplace

The Marketplace segment generated 78% of 2025 revenues and includes the digital platforms in the US, Canada and Europe, as well as the Canadian logistics centers where simulcast sales take place 1. It also provides SaaS private label solutions to automakers and captive finance companies 1.

Finance (AFC)

The Finance segment, through subsidiary AFC, provides short-term inventory-secured floorplan financing, mainly to independent dealers in the United States and Canada 1. It accounted for 22% of 2025 revenues 1 and helps supply liquidity to the marketplace 1.

Market context

The total addressable market for wholesale used vehicles in the US and Canada is estimated at about 15 million vehicles 1. The company says it supports the majority of commercial off-lease sellers in North America 1. Volumes can vary seasonally, and the fourth quarter typically sees lower volumes 1.

Trends

  • Rising supply of off-lease vehiclestailwind

    As leases originated recently mature from 2026, the company expects more vehicles to reach the wholesale market, much of which could flow through OPENLANE first 12. In the second quarter, commercial vehicles sold grew 39% 3.

  • Tariffs and trade disputesheadwind

    Tariffs and ongoing trade disputes could affect the number of off-lease vehicles available and add uncertainty in the automotive industry 12.

  • Conflict with Iran and fuel costsheadwind

    Higher fuel prices linked to the conflict with Iran have raised transport and logistics costs for the wholesale used vehicle industry, while inflation and interest rates continue to affect vehicle affordability 2.

  • Digitalization of dealer-to-dealer salesmixed

    Digital platforms could expand the dealer-to-dealer market, a segment where digital competition is intensifying 1. Independent dealers are an important base for AFC and the marketplace 1.

Competitive position

Competition includes physical auctions, online wholesale and retail platforms, and new entrants using digital technology 1. In financing, AFC faces banks, credit unions and specialty lenders 1. Some competitors have greater financial and marketing resources 1.

  • Manheim

    Large wholesale auction operator named in the annual report as a main competitor

  • ACV Auctions

    Digital used vehicle auction platform named among the main competitors

  • America's Auto Auction

    North American auto auction operator named among large competitors

  • NextGear Capital

    Specialty floorplan lender and direct competitor of AFC

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / OPENLANE, Inc. · 18 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / OPENLANE, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / OPENLANE, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.