olivLaw · US equity research
CarMax, Inc. KMX
Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations · SIC 5500 · Vertical: Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations (SIC 5500)
CarMax is the largest used-vehicle retailer in the United States, combining retail sales, wholesale auctions and auto finance through its CAF division. The company is going through a transformation under new leadership, with its Shift into GEAR strategy aiming to restore sustained growth. For fiscal 2026 net sales and operating revenues were 25881.1 million USD and the auto loan portfolio stood at 16.37 billion USD.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, CarMax, Inc. (KMX) stock was 55.14 USD (+3.30% on the day), with market capitalisation 7.8 bn USD, P/E 26.9 on diluted EPS of 2.05 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.16, 52-week range 30.88–64.22 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 7.9 bn USD (+19.5% YoY), net income of 165.3 m USD (+73.3% YoY), diluted EPS 1.16 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 51.8
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 49.57 – 56.66
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.79 · band width 13.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 56.60 / 49.48
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.20 / -0.71
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +0.5% | −1.1% | +1.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −2.7% | −0.5% | −2.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +39.8% | +4.4% | +35.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +42.7% | +12.3% | +30.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +35.3% | +13.5% | +21.8 pp | −5.6% |
| 3 years | −17.7% | +76.4% | −94.1 pp | +18.2% |
| 5 years | −64.4% | +63.7% | −128.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 31 Aug 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.2 bn | 6.0 bn | 7.5 bn | 6.6 bn | 5.8 bn | 5.9 bn | 8.0 bn | 7.9 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 5.5 bn | 5.3 bn | 6.7 bn | 5.9 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.3 bn | 7.2 bn | 7.1 bn |
| Gross profit | 677.6 m | 667.9 m | 893.6 m | 717.7 m | 590.0 m | 605.3 m | 854.4 m | 799.5 m |
| SG&A | 575.8 m | 610.5 m | 659.6 m | 601.1 m | 581.4 m | 611.3 m | 635.2 m | 628.6 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 64.5 m | 77.5 m | 79.8 m | 67.3 m | 68.9 m | 93.8 m | 92.9 m | 70.1 m |
| Interest expense | 25.4 m | 24.1 m | 27.1 m | 28.5 m | 26.1 m | 28.8 m | 33.8 m | 31.8 m |
| Pre-tax income | 166.5 m | 118.4 m | 283.1 m | 127.1 m | 83.9 m | -110.7 m | 258.6 m | 223.1 m |
| Income tax | 41.0 m | 28.5 m | 72.7 m | 31.7 m | 21.7 m | 10.0 m | 72.9 m | 57.8 m |
| Net income | 125.4 m | 89.9 m | 210.4 m | 95.4 m | 62.2 m | -120.7 m | 185.6 m | 165.3 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.81 | 0.58 ≈ | 1.38 | 0.64 | 0.43 | -0.85 ≈ | 1.31 | 1.16 |
| Operating cash flow | -23.4 m ≈ | 146.4 m | 299.5 m | 785.5 m ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | -554.3 m | 17.6 m | 882.9 m ≈ |
| Capex | 127.2 m ≈ | 127.6 m | 136.7 m | 131.5 m ≈ | 139.8 m ≈ | 133.0 m | 103.3 m | 77.1 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 116.3 m ≈ | 98.9 m | 204.0 m | 180.8 m ≈ | 203.6 m ≈ | 54.3 m | 2.3 m | 313.0 k ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 83 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 12.8, median 19.1, max 31.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 18.2 bn | 20.3 bn | 19.0 bn | 31.9 bn | 29.7 bn | 26.5 bn | 26.4 bn | 25.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +6.1% | +11.8% | −6.7% | +68.3% | −6.9% | −10.6% | −0.7% | −1.8% |
| Net income | 842.4 m | 888.4 m | 746.9 m | 1.2 bn | 484.8 m | 479.2 m | 500.6 m | 247.3 m |
| Net income YoY | +26.8% | +5.5% | −15.9% | +54.1% | −57.9% | −1.1% | +4.5% | −50.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 4.79 | 5.33 | 4.52 | 6.97 | 3.03 | 3.02 | 3.21 | 1.68 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +33.1% | +11.3% | −15.2% | +54.2% | −56.5% | −0.3% | +6.3% | −47.7% |
| net % | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Free cash flow | -141.7 m | -568.5 m | 503.2 m | -2.9 bn | 860.6 m | -6.7 m | 156.5 m | 1.2 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 28 Feb 2026
- Cash
- 122.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- 18.0 bn USD
- Net debt
- 17.9 bn USD
- Equity
- 5.9 bn USD
- Total assets
- 26.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 3.06x
- Current ratio
- 2.20x
- ROE
- 4.1%
- ROA
- 0.9%
- FCF margin
- 4.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 19.0 bn | 31.9 bn | 29.7 bn | 26.5 bn | 26.4 bn | 25.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 16.6 bn | 28.6 bn | 26.9 bn | 23.8 bn | 23.5 bn | 23.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.4 bn | 3.3 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| SG&A | 1.7 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 242.2 m | 273.2 m | 265.2 m | 260.4 m | 294.8 m | 346.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 86.2 m | 94.1 m | 120.4 m | 124.8 m | 107.9 m | 110.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 965.3 m | 1.5 bn | 636.8 m | 641.6 m | 669.4 m | 383.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 218.3 m | 341.0 m | 152.0 m | 162.4 m | 168.8 m | 136.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 746.9 m | 1.2 bn | 484.8 m | 479.2 m | 500.6 m | 247.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 4.52 | 6.97 | 3.03 | 3.02 | 3.21 | 1.68 | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 165.1 m | 165.2 m | 159.8 m | 158.7 m | 156.1 m | 147.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 132.3 m | 102.7 m | 314.8 m | 574.1 m | 247.0 m | 122.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 239.1 m | 561.0 m | 298.8 m | 221.2 m | 188.7 m | 204.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 3.2 bn | 5.1 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 4.1 bn | 6.5 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 3.1 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 653.0 k | 141.3 m | 141.3 m | 141.3 m | 141.3 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 206.5 m | 191.1 m | 175.7 m | 160.3 m | 144.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 21.5 bn | 26.3 bn | 26.2 bn | 27.2 bn | 27.4 bn | 26.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 799.3 m | 937.7 m | 826.6 m | 933.7 m | 977.8 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 452.6 m | 532.3 m | 579.5 m | 797.4 m | 543.3 m | 762.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Jun 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 14.6 bn | 18.2 bn | 17.8 bn | 18.0 bn | 18.1 bn | 17.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 17.2 bn | 21.1 bn | 20.6 bn | 21.1 bn | 21.2 bn | 20.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 4.4 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.6 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.2 bn | 5.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 667.8 m | -2.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 458.6 m | 624.4 m | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 164.5 m | 308.5 m | 422.7 m | 465.3 m | 467.9 m | 541.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 503.2 m ≈ | -2.9 bn ≈ | 860.6 m ≈ | -6.7 m ≈ | 156.5 m ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -128.2 m | -523.7 m | -425.8 m | -467.0 m | -461.0 m | -540.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -424.0 m | 3.1 bn | -710.2 m | 307.8 m | -453.5 m | -1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 229.9 m | 576.5 m | 333.9 m | 94.1 m | 428.5 m | 642.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 7.8 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 18.23 – 350.58 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)46.09 – 350.58 (Mid 123.52)WACC 5.5% · starting FCFF 1.2 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 86%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -17.0%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E18.23 – 31.05 (Mid 24.87)10 companies used · median multiple 12.1x · quartiles 8.9x – 15.1xABG, AN, CPRT, GPI, LAD, MUSA, OPLN, PAG, RUSHA, SAH
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.1% | 29 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 391.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -4.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -17.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 26.9x | 8 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 14.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.3% | 48 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality65/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial48/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation49/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
CARMAX, INC. (KMX). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-08-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 25.9 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth -1.8%; net margin 1.1%; ROE 4.7%.
The estimated value range is 32.16–190.81 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 74.20 USD, the price of 55.14 USD leaves a potential of 34.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 25.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 391.9%
- Current ratio: 2.3x
- FCF yield: 14.6%
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 1.1%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -4.5%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -17.8%
- P/E (TTM): 26.9x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations (SIC 5500) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 18 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPRTCopart, Inc. | 30.2 bn | 21.0 | 16.2% | 31.8% | +0.4% | −16% / −35% |
| CASYCasey’s General Stores, Inc. | 24.9 bn | 32.5 | 20.0% | 4.1% | +10.2% | +18% / +145% |
| PAGPenske Automotive Group, Inc. | 13.9 bn | 15.5 | 15.5% | 2.8% | −0.2% | +31% / +42% |
| MUSAMurphy USA Inc. | 9.1 bn | 14.1 | 99.0% | 2.9% | −4.2% | +30% / +36% |
| KMXCarmax, Inc. | 7.8 bn | 26.9 | 4.7% | 1.1% | −1.8% | +35% / −18% |
| LADLithia Motors, Inc. | 6.8 bn | 9.1 | 11.8% | 2.1% | +4.0% | −1% / +18% |
| ANAutonation, Inc. | 5.9 bn | 8.8 | 30.2% | 2.6% | +3.2% | −13% / +36% |
| OPLNOPENLANE, Inc. | 4.5 bn | 22.8 | 13.1% | 9.2% | +8.2% | +44% / +151% |
| ABGAsbury Automotive Group, Inc. | 3.8 bn | 8.3 | 11.8% | 2.7% | +4.7% | −10% / −0% |
| GPIGroup 1 Automotive, Inc | 3.3 bn | 8.6 | 12.4% | 1.7% | +13.2% | −32% / −3% |
| NXXTNextnrg, Inc. | 427.3 m | — | — | -61.3% | +194.7% | +108% / −43% |
| VRMVroom, Inc. | 36.5 m | — | -45.0% | — | −54.2% | −66% / unavailable |
| KXINKaixin Holdings | 12.2 m | — | -307.2% | -41,788.4% | unavailable | −96% / −100% |
| CRMTAmerica’s Car-Mart, Inc. | 10.5 m | — | -43.0% | -18.6% | −7.9% | −94% / −98% |
| JZXNJiuzi Holdings Inc. | 1.4 m | — | -90.7% | -353.5% | +105.9% | −86% / −100% |
| SAHSonic Automotive, Inc. | — | 10.3 | 19.4% | 1.3% | +6.5% | +2% / +25% |
| RUSHARush Enterprises, Inc. | — | 14.0 | 11.8% | 3.7% | −4.7% | +33% / +75% |
| CVNACarvana Co. | 0 | 0.0 | 51.5% | 6.2% | +48.6% | +4% / +1,138% |
| CWHCamping World Holdings, Inc. | 0 | — | -33.2% | -1.6% | +4.4% | −52% / −74% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for KMX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 29.78 Total return -46% · Per year -46% | 52.91 Total return -4% · Per year -4% | 80.03 Total return 45% · Per year 45% |
| 3 years | 23.93 Total return -57% · Per year -24% | 48.28 Total return -12% · Per year -4% | 80.89 Total return 47% · Per year 14% |
| 5 years | 19.23 Total return -65% · Per year -19% | 44.07 Total return -20% · Per year -4% | 81.75 Total return 48% · Per year 8% |
- Exit P/E± 12.07
- Net margin± 8.45
- Annual revenue growth± 7.59
- Annual dilution± 0.71
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
CarMax is the largest used-vehicle retailer in the United States, combining retail sales, wholesale auctions and auto finance through its CAF division. The company is going through a transformation under new leadership, with its Shift into GEAR strategy aiming to restore sustained growth. For fiscal 2026 net sales and operating revenues were 25881.1 million USD and the auto loan portfolio stood at 16.37 billion USD.
SWOT
Strengths
- Position as the largest used-vehicle retailer in the country, backed by a national store network and digital infrastructure.
- In-house CAF finance arm that captures additional profit and reduces dependence on third-party lenders.
- Large acquisition model that supplies both retail inventory and the volume needed for wholesale auctions.
Weaknesses
- Lower gross profit per unit and a rising share of gross profit absorbed by SG&A costs in recent periods.
- Recent leadership changes and workforce reductions point to a transition period with execution uncertainty.
- The pause in share repurchases and leverage near the upper target range limited financial flexibility for a time.
Opportunities
- Expansion of CAF across the full credit spectrum, which could add volume and interest income.
- Better conversion of digital channels and tighter integration of online and in-store experiences.
- Redesign of extended protection plans, which could lift margins per unit.
Threats
- Economic conditions and tariffs that could reduce demand and access to credit for buyers.
- Dependence on the asset-backed securitization market to fund auto loan originations.
Risks
- Intense and digital competitionhigh
Online competitors and platforms facilitating private sales could reduce retail margins and appraisal-sourced volume.
- Dependence on securitization fundinghigh
If the auto securitization market contracted, CAF could be forced to curtail lending for some period.
- Inventory depreciationmedium
Falling used-vehicle prices could cause losses when liquidating inventory and compress margins.
- Reputational riskmedium
A perceived lack of integrity or quality problems could undermine customer trust and sales.
- Credit and loss riskmedium
Higher loan-loss provisions could weigh on CAF results, particularly in the Tier 2 segment.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The sales recovery and higher EPS in the second quarter of fiscal 2027 suggest the pricing strategy could be working.
- A national leadership position combined with CAF financing and EPP revenue provides diversified earnings sources.
- The SG&A reduction program could free resources for sales-driving investment if execution stays on track.
What would break the thesis
- Margins per vehicle have declined and could stay under pressure if prices continue to be adjusted to support volume.
- Leadership changes and restructuring show the transformation is still in progress, with execution risk.
- Digital and dealer-network competition could limit long-term market share gains.
What to watch
- Strategic Update and details of the Shift into GEAR strategyQ3 2027
- Resumption of share repurchases and their paceQ3 2027
- CAF loan-loss provisions and Tier 2 credit performancenext 10-Q
- Progress of SG&A savings against the 200 million USD exit-rate target2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
CarMax, Inc. sells used vehicles at competitive, no-haggle prices through a customer-friendly sales process and an omni-channel platform combining physical stores and online channels. It buys vehicles from consumers and dealers, reconditions them to internal standards and resells them, while vehicles that do not meet retail standards are sold through wholesale auctions to licensed dealers 1. The CarMax Auto Finance division provides financing exclusively to CarMax customers and financed 42.4 % of retail used unit sales in fiscal 2026 1.
Segments
CarMax Sales Operations
The segment covers retail used-vehicle sales, wholesale auctions, extended protection plans (EPP), repair service and advertising and subscription revenues. In fiscal 2026 it sold 780684 used vehicles at retail, and in the second quarter of fiscal 2027 total net revenues rose 19.5 % 13.
Market context
The US used-vehicle market is highly fragmented, with about 39 million used vehicles sold in calendar 2025 and over 18000 franchised dealers. CarMax estimated it sold about 3.6 % of 0-10 year old vehicles nationwide, slightly down from the prior year 1. The auto finance sector represented about 1.7 trillion USD in outstanding receivables at the end of 2025 1.
Trends
- Sales recovery after price cutstailwind
The company lowered prices and invested in marketing to lift sales; comparable-store used unit sales rose 13.0 % in the second quarter of fiscal 2027, which could support growth if the trend holds 3.
- Digitalization of the sales processmixed
Digital tools supported most retail sales, and AI and online platforms could reduce reliance on any single channel while also bringing new competition.
- Cost and credit pressureheadwind
Economic conditions, gasoline prices and credit availability could weigh on affordability and margins, with effects on CAF profitability if costs rise.
- Lower operating coststailwind
The SG&A reduction program and reconditioning savings could support margins, although the full effect is expected later.
Competitive position
Competition comes from franchised dealers, online sales platforms, independent dealers and private sales. In auto finance the main rivals are banks and credit unions offering direct loans for used vehicles 1. The company notes that some competitors have tried to replicate its no-haggle pricing model 1.
- Franchised new-car dealers
Dealers that also sell new vehicles and can certify used cars, an advantage the filing sees as potentially favoring them over CarMax.
- Online used-vehicle platforms
Online sales and intermediary platforms that attract digital buyers and could reduce the number of vehicles acquired through appraisals.
- Banks and credit unions
The main competitors of CAF in used-vehicle financing, offering direct loans to customers.
- Independent used-car dealers and auctions
Independent dealers and in-person or online auctions competing mainly for older, higher-mileage vehicles.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Here are Thursday's biggest analyst calls: Nvidia, CoreWeave, Walmart, Crocs, CarMax, Regeneron & moreCNBC — Top News · 15 Oct 2026 · EN
- CarMax Shares Climb as Turnaround Push Shows Green ShootsBloomberg Markets · 29 Sept 2026 · EN
- CarMax (KMX) Revival May Hit Roadblock as US Consumer Sentiment FaltersBloomberg Markets · 28 Sept 2026 · EN
- CarMax Slips as Used Vehicle Sales Keep Falling Amid TurnaroundBloomberg Markets · 17 Jun 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 15 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report03 Nov 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report19 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report30 Sept 2026
- Current report29 Sept 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report31 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report24 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report24 Jun 2026
- Current report17 Jun 2026Results of operations · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report12 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-02-28 · SEC / CarMax, Inc. · 15 Apr 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-08-31 · SEC / CarMax, Inc. · 30 Sept 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / CarMax, Inc. · 29 Sept 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.