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olivLaw · US equity research

The Walt Disney Company DIS

Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation · SIC 7990 · Vertical: Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation (SIC 7990)

118.95USD+4.18% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

The Walt Disney Company is a global entertainment group organized into three segments: Entertainment, Sports and Experiences. In its latest reported quarter, revenues reached 25.2 billion USD, and the company reiterated its adjusted EPS growth target for fiscal 2026, so the performance of its parks and streaming services is being closely watched by the market.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, The Walt Disney Company (DIS) stock was 118.95 USD (+4.18% on the day), with market capitalisation 205.4 bn USD, P/E 24.5 on diluted EPS of 4.85 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.96%, beta 0.88, 52-week range 92.42–118.95 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 25.2 bn USD (+6.8% YoY), net income of 2.6 bn USD (−49.9% YoY), diluted EPS 1.51 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
205.4 bn USD
shares as of 29 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
24.5
Diluted EPS TTM 4.85 · TTM to 27 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
4.07%
TTM to 27 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
2.96%
DPS 12m 3.52
Beta (2y)
0.88
Volatility (1y) 27%
52-week range
92.42118.95

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
74.7
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
105.78 – 116.11
above the upper band · %B 1.27 · band width 9.3%
SMA 50 / 200
107.69 / 103.51
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
2.17 / 1.64
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+14.8%−1.1%+15.9 pp—
3 months+16.9%−0.5%+17.3 pp—
6 months+10.1%+4.4%+5.7 pp—
Year to date+4.6%+12.3%−7.8 pp—
1 year+6.7%+13.5%−6.8 pp−31.8%
3 years+39.8%+76.4%−36.6 pp−25.9%
5 years−32.3%+63.7%−95.9 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−20.8%
12 Nov 2025 → 27 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−55.2%
08 Nov 2021 → 04 Oct 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
−7.5%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 27 Jun 2026

Revenue
25.2 bn USD
+6.8% YoY
Net income
2.6 bn USD
−49.9% YoY
Diluted EPS
1.51
−48.3% YoY
net / operating
10.4% / 22.0%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue22.6 bn24.7 bn23.6 bn23.7 bn22.5 bn26.0 bn25.2 bn25.2 bn
SG&A4.3 bn3.9 bn4.0 bn4.1 bn4.4 bn4.1 bn4.1 bn4.0 bn
Operating income3.7 bn5.1 bn4.4 bn4.6 bn3.5 bn4.6 bn4.6 bn5.6 bn
Depreciation & amortisation1.3 bn1.3 bn1.3 bn1.3 bn1.4 bn1.3 bn1.4 bn1.4 bn
Interest expense-3.6 bn487.0 m471.0 m438.0 m-3.2 bn443.0 m473.0 m463.0 m
Pre-tax income948.0 m3.7 bn3.1 bn3.2 bn2.0 bn3.7 bn3.4 bn3.6 bn
Income tax384.0 m1.0 bn-314.0 m-2.7 bn602.0 m1.2 bn902.0 m801.0 m
Net income460.0 m2.6 bn3.3 bn5.3 bn1.3 bn2.4 bn2.2 bn2.6 bn
Diluted EPS0.25 ≈1.401.812.920.73 ≈1.341.271.51
Operating cash flow5.5 bn3.2 bn6.8 bn ≈3.7 bn ≈4.5 bn735.0 m6.9 bn ≈4.9 bn ≈
Capex1.5 bn2.5 bn1.9 bn ≈1.8 bn ≈1.9 bn3.0 bn2.0 bn ≈1.8 bn ≈
Dividends paid817.0 m——0 ≈898.0 m——0 ≈
Share repurchases469.0 m794.0 m991.0 m ≈711.0 m ≈1.0 bn2.0 bn3.5 bn ≈1.7 bn ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 43 percentile of its own 28-quarter history (min 12.5, median 35.8, max 290.3; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue59.4 bn69.6 bn65.4 bn67.4 bn82.7 bn88.9 bn91.4 bn94.4 bn
Revenue YoY+7.8%+17.1%−6.1%+3.1%+22.7%+7.5%+2.8%+3.4%
Net income12.6 bn11.1 bn-2.9 bn2.0 bn3.1 bn2.4 bn5.0 bn12.4 bn
Net income YoY+40.3%−12.3%−125.9%unavailable+57.6%−25.2%+111.2%+149.5%
Diluted EPS8.366.64-1.581.091.721.292.726.85
Diluted EPS YoY+46.9%−20.6%−123.8%unavailable+57.8%−25.0%+110.9%+151.8%
net %21.2%15.9%-4.4%3.0%3.8%2.6%5.4%13.1%
Free cash flowunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable4.9 bn8.6 bn10.1 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 27 Sept 2025

Cash
5.7 bn USD
Financial debt
42.0 bn USD
Net debt
36.3 bn USD
Equity
114.6 bn USD
Total assets
197.5 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.37x
Current ratio
0.71x
ROE
11.3%
ROA
6.3%
FCF margin
10.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
88.9 bn
2024
91.4 bn
2025
94.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

SG&A
2023
15.3 bn
2024
15.8 bn
2025
16.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Operating income
2023
12.9 bn
2024
15.6 bn
2025
17.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
5.4 bn
2024
5.0 bn
2025
5.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

EBITDA
2023
18.2 bn ≈
2024
20.6 bn ≈
2025
22.9 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025derived

Interest expense
2023
-2.0 bn
2024
-2.1 bn
2025
-1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Pre-tax income
2023
4.8 bn
2024
7.6 bn
2025
12.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Income tax
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
-1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Net income
2023
2.4 bn
2024
5.0 bn
2025
12.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Diluted EPS
2023
1.29
2024
2.72
2025
6.85

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
1.8 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
14.2 bn
2024
6.0 bn
2025
5.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Inventories
2023
2.0 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Current assets
2023
32.8 bn
2024
25.2 bn
2025
24.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
34.9 bn
2024
37.0 bn
2025
41.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Goodwill
2023
77.1 bn
2024
73.3 bn
2025
73.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
13.1 bn
2024
10.7 bn
2025
9.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Total assets
2023
205.6 bn
2024
196.2 bn
2025
197.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Accounts payable
2023
15.1 bn
2024
14.8 bn
2025
15.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Short-term debt
2023
4.3 bn
2024
6.8 bn
2025
6.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Long-term debt
2023
42.1 bn
2024
39.0 bn
2025
35.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Current liabilities
2023
31.1 bn
2024
34.6 bn
2025
34.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Equity
2023
104.0 bn
2024
105.5 bn
2025
114.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
9.9 bn
2024
14.0 bn
2025
18.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Capex
2023
5.0 bn
2024
5.4 bn
2025
8.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Free cash flow
2023
4.9 bn ≈
2024
8.6 bn ≈
2025
10.1 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-4.6 bn
2024
-6.9 bn
2025
-8.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-2.7 bn
2024
-15.3 bn
2025
-10.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Dividends paid
2023
0
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
3.0 bn
2025
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Nov 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
3.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
4.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
7.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
12.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
149.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
58.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
151.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
58.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
17.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
24.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
18.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026
Net margin
8.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026
FCF margin
8.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
7.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
ROA
4.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
ROIC
8.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
ROCE
10.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
27.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
40.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
1.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
10.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
17.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
8.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
8.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
96.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
71.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
205.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
246.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
23.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
24.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
4.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026
P/B
1.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
P/S
2.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
10.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
13.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
2.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
P/FCF
24.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
FCF yield
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
5.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 69 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

118.95 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 205.4 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
205.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
24.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026
P/B
1.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
10.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
ROE
7.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
Net margin
8.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
3.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 27 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 27 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 29 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 05 Aug 2026
verified 1284derived 83

Score by group

  • Valuation52
  • Returns84
  • Quality79
  • Balance sheet73
  • Growth69

Estimated value range

Low
65.75
USD per share
Mid
111.45
USD per share
High
142.75
USD per share
Price: 118.95 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -6.3% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -6.7% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 58.51 – 188.56 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)58.51 – 110.15 (Mid 77.80)
    WACC 8.4% · starting FCFF 9.6 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 76%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 20.2%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA72.93 – 142.75 (Mid 111.45)
    4 companies used · median multiple 9.8x · quartiles 7.0x – 12.1x
    BRSL, FBYD, MTN, PRKS
  • Peers: P/E65.75 – 188.56 (Mid 162.61)
    7 companies used · median multiple 33.6x · quartiles 13.6x – 38.9x
    BRSL, MSGE, MTN, PRKS, PRSU, RSI, SEAT
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation (SIC 7990)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 69/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality8.6%63 (vs peers)10%
Net margin · Quality8.7%89 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality96.4%95 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth4.5%38 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth58.5%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet1.7x86 (vs peers)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet10.0x100 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.7x0 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation24.5x63 (vs peers)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation10.4x42 (on a fixed band)10%
FCF yield · Valuation4.0%50 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns5.1%73 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns27.0%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet73/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth69/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality79/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns84/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation52/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

WALT DISNEY CO/ (DIS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-27.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 94.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 3.4%; net margin 8.7%; ROE 7.8%; net debt/EBITDA 1.7x.

The estimated value range is 65.75–142.75 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 111.45 USD, the price of 118.95 USD leaves a potential of -6.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -6.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 69/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 8.7%
  • FCF conversion: 96.4%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 58.5%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 1.7x
  • Interest coverage: 10.0x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.1%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 27.0%

What contradicts it

  • Current ratio: 0.7x
  • The valuation methods diverge

Versus the vertical median

Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation (SIC 7990) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
24.5x
vertical median 36.1x
below median (−32.1%)
EV/EBITDA
10.4x
vertical median 9.8x
above median (+5.5%)
P/S
2.1x
vertical median 1.3x
above median (+56.4%)
P/B
1.9x
vertical median 2.1x
below median (−10.5%)
ROE
7.8%
vertical median -16.5%
above median
Net margin
8.7%
vertical median -2.7%
above median
EBIT margin
18.4%
vertical median 2.2%
above median (+754.9%)
Revenue YoY
3.4%
vertical median 11.0%
below median (−69.6%)
Net debt/EBITDA
1.7x
vertical median 4.1x
below median (−57.8%)
Dividend yield
3.0%
vertical median 2.2%
above median (+35.8%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
DISWalt Disney Co205.4 bn24.57.8%8.7%+3.4%+7% / +40%
MTNVail Resorts, Inc.5.7 bn39.144.4%5.2%−4.3%+15% / −26%
RSIRush Street Interactive, Inc.2.5 bn40.923.0%2.6%+22.8%−33% / +193%
BRSLBrightstar Lottery PLC1.9 bn13.711.6%5.9%−0.0%−35% / −62%
PRKSUnited Parks & Resorts Inc.1.6 bn13.5—8.1%−3.6%−5% / −30%
PRSUPursuit Attractions and Hospitality, Inc.1.5 bn33.67.7%9.6%+23.4%+65% / +70%
NIPGNIP Group Inc.471.7 m—-15.9%-14.9%+1.9%−91% / unavailable
SEGSeaport Entertainment Group Inc.301.9 m—-22.6%-91.4%+18.3%+10% / unavailable
GENIGenius Sports Limited70.1 m—-17.2%-16.7%+31.0%−30% / +26%
SEATVivid Seats Inc.32.0 m0.02,000.9%278.1%−30.5%−63% / −98%
GRSDGrandstand Limited29.8 m—-28.5%-19.9%+30.1%−85% / −91%
FCHLFitness Champs Holdings Limited12.0 m—-349.1%-32.9%+4.7%−100% / unavailable
FBYDFalcon’s Beyond Global, Inc.77—-100.8%-36.0%+120.8%−62% / −26%
MSGEMadison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.—38.7—8.6%+12.5%+59% / +160%
MSGSMsg Knickerbockers Corp.—983.9—0.7%+11.0%+38% / +86%
XPOFXponential Fitness, Inc.———-401.5%−20.7%−32% / −67%
CDROCodere Online Luxembourg, S.A.——17.3%1.9%+24.2%+25% / +173%
ENHAEnhanced Group Inc.——-1,903.4%—unavailableunavailable / unavailable
STUBStubhub Holdings, Inc.——-145.8%-91.3%−1.4%−44% / unavailable
GDHGGolden Heaven Group Holdings Ltd.——-6.5%-56.2%−31.5%−75% / −100%
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1- and 3-year price returns: for DIS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
72.27
Total return -39% · Per year -39%
127.76
Total return 7% · Per year 7%
192.44
Total return 62% · Per year 62%
3 years
70.15
Total return -41% · Per year -16%
139.54
Total return 17% · Per year 5%
230.79
Total return 94% · Per year 25%
5 years
68.09
Total return -43% · Per year -11%
152.41
Total return 28% · Per year 5%
276.76
Total return 133% · Per year 18%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 34.89
  • Net margin± 24.42
  • Annual revenue growth± 20.04
  • Annual dilution± 2.05

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

The Walt Disney Company is a global entertainment group organized into three segments: Entertainment, Sports and Experiences. In its latest reported quarter, revenues reached 25.2 billion USD, and the company reiterated its adjusted EPS growth target for fiscal 2026, so the performance of its parks and streaming services is being closely watched by the market.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The content library is vast and includes characters with global recognition, and franchises can generate revenue across cinema, streaming, products and parks 13.
  • The Experiences segment is a solid profit generator, and demand for parks grew in the latest reported quarter 13.
  • The company has a large subscriber base across several services and a broad international network of channels 1.

Weaknesses

  • Linear networks are losing audience and affiliate fee revenue, which pressures programming budgets 1.
  • Net income has been affected by impairments and restructuring, and in fiscal Q3 2026 net income attributable to the company fell sharply year on year 23.

Opportunities

  • Expanding international offerings and local original content on Disney+ could attract new users and reduce churn 3.
  • Bringing sports into streaming services and bundles could lift subscriptions and advertising revenue 3.
  • Parks and cruises can keep expanding, and recent franchise products could generate additional revenue 3.

Threats

  • An economic slowdown and inflation could reduce spending on parks, subscriptions and advertising 1.
  • Competition for audience attention and for sports rights is intense, and large foreign digital platforms are strong 1.
  • Natural disasters, geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions can disrupt operations and supply chains 1.

Risks

  • Economic slowdownhigh

    A recession or persistent inflation could reduce demand for parks, advertising and subscriptions, with effects across several segments at once 1.

  • Shifting consumer preferenceshigh

    Public tastes are volatile, and large investments in content or attractions may not be received as expected 1.

  • Currency and tariffsmedium

    Currency fluctuations and tariffs can affect costs and international revenue, and hedging does not fully offset the effect 13.

  • Dependence on third partiesmedium

    Affiliate, licensing and advertising revenue depends on distribution partners and advertisers, and liquidity problems at some partners can delay payments 1.

  • Impairments and restructuringmedium

    Write-downs of investments, such as those in A+E and Tata Play, have weighed on recent profit and could continue if performance declines 23.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If growth in parks and franchises continues, the company could turn its vast IP into stable revenue across several channels.
  • Improving streaming profitability could reduce dependence on declining linear networks.
  • The expanded share repurchase programme and rising adjusted EPS, if confirmed, could support shareholder value.

What would break the thesis

  • If the economy slows, demand for parks and advertising could fall faster than the company's costs.
  • Losses from investment write-downs could recur if linear network performance does not improve.
  • Intense competition for content, sports and advertising could compress margins over the longer term.

What to watch

  • Quarterly results and operating income of the Entertainment, Sports and Experiences segmentsQ4 2026
  • Delivery of the guidance for total segment operating income in the fourth quarterQ4 2026
  • Evolution of Disney+ and Hulu subscriber numbers and the SVOD operating margin2027
  • Guidance on adjusted EPS growth for fiscal 2027, excluding the 53rd week effect2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

The company produces and distributes films and episodic content, operates linear networks such as ABC and the Disney, FX and National Geographic channels, and runs the Disney+ and Hulu streaming services. The Sports segment includes ESPN, and the Experiences segment covers theme parks, hotels, cruises and licensed products. In fiscal 2025 total revenues reached 94.4 billion USD, according to the 10-K 1.

Segments

Entertainment

The Entertainment segment includes Linear Networks, Direct-to-Consumer and Content Sales/Licensing. Its revenues reached 42.5 billion USD in fiscal 2025 1. In fiscal Q3 2026 the segment's operating income rose considerably year on year, and the company indicated that the SVOD operating margin could remain at double digits for the full year 23.

Sports

The Sports segment, which includes ESPN, is funded by affiliate fees, subscriptions, advertising and sub-licensed sports rights. Revenues were 17.7 billion USD in fiscal 2025 1. In fiscal Q3 2026 the segment's operating income fell year on year, while the company expands ESPN offerings on Disney+ 3.

Market context

The entertainment market is shaped by consumer demand, the shift of content consumption to digital platforms and sensitivity to the economic cycle. The sources indicate that park and tourism revenues depend on economic conditions and demand for out-of-home experiences 1. Competition for advertising, subscribers and sports rights remains intense, and the company points to an increasingly broad digital offering 12.

Trends

  • Growth of streamingmixed

    Disney+ and Hulu had approximately 132 million and 64 million paid subscribers respectively as of September 27 2025 1. The company plans to increase investment in international content on Disney+, which could support subscription revenue if retention remains solid 3.

  • Demand for parks and experiencesmixed

    Park revenues grew in fiscal Q3 2026, with growth in both volume and rate across the global portfolio 3. However, the company flags softness at its Asian parks, and demand for experiences depends on macroeconomic conditions 23.

  • Technology and artificial intelligencemixed

    Technological change and evolving rules on artificial intelligence are altering how content is created and distributed, and traditional business models have been hit by the decline of linear television audiences 1. If new streaming and advertising models offset these losses, the impact could be positive.

  • Cost and currency sensitivityheadwind

    Inflation, trade tariffs and currency swings can raise operating costs and reduce international revenue 13. The company recorded a favorable tariff refund in fiscal Q3 2026, but future refund amounts are expected to be immaterial 3.

Competitive position

Linear Networks and Direct-to-Consumer compete for viewers' attention with other television networks, other streaming services, social media and video games 1. In advertising the company competes with online search, marketplaces and social platforms 1. In content production it faces other studios and video-on-demand services 1.

  • Sony Pictures Entertainment

    Holds the rights to produce and distribute Spider-Man films, making it a direct competitor in films built on Marvel characters 1.

  • Feld Entertainment

    Producer of the Disney On Ice show under licence from the company, making it both a partner and a competitor in live entertainment 1.

  • Hearst

    Co-owner with the company of A+E Global Media, a competitor in documentary content and cable networks 1.

  • FuboTVFUBO

    A vMVPD platform with which the company combined Hulu Live TV assets, making it both a partner and a rival at the same time 12.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-27 · SEC / The Walt Disney Company · 13 Nov 2025
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-27 · SEC / The Walt Disney Company · 05 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / The Walt Disney Company · 05 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.