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olivLaw · US equity research

United Parks & Resorts Inc. PRKS

Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation · SIC 7990 · Vertical: Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation (SIC 7990)

34.19USD+5.04% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

United Parks & Resorts operates a portfolio of theme and entertainment parks under the SeaWorld, Busch Gardens, Aquatica, Discovery Cove and Sesame Place brands, grouped mainly in the United States. The company is going through a difficult stretch: both revenue and visitor numbers fell in 2025 and in the first half of 2026, while in-park spending per visitor rose. See and.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, United Parks & Resorts Inc. (PRKS) stock was 34.19 USD (+5.04% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.6 bn USD, P/E 13.5 on diluted EPS of 2.54 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.14%, beta 1.33, 52-week range 29.73–48.44 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 483.3 m USD (−1.4% YoY), net income of 63.3 m USD (−21.0% YoY), diluted EPS 1.34 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
1.6 bn USD
shares as of 31 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
13.5
Diluted EPS TTM 2.54 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
7.43%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
2.14%
DPS 12m 0.73
Beta (2y)
1.33
Volatility (1y) 53%
52-week range
29.7348.44

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
55.8
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
29.82 – 34.35
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.96 · band width 14.1%
SMA 50 / 200
34.62 / 37.98
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.56 / -1.04
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−0.6%−1.1%+0.5 pp—
3 months−25.8%−0.5%−25.3 pp—
6 months−4.4%+4.4%−8.8 pp—
Year to date−5.8%+12.3%−18.1 pp—
1 year−25.7%+13.5%−39.2 pp−31.8%
3 years−27.7%+76.4%−104.1 pp−25.8%
5 years−50.4%+63.7%−114.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−37.4%
02 Jul 2026 → 23 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−60.1%
31 Mar 2022 → 27 Mar 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−13.1%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
483.3 m USD
−1.4% YoY
Net income
63.3 m USD
−21.0% YoY
Diluted EPS
1.34
−7.6% YoY
net / operating
13.1% / 24.2%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue545.9 m384.4 m286.9 m490.2 m511.9 m373.5 m278.3 m483.3 m
SG&A55.4 m49.9 m44.1 m64.4 m60.7 m58.6 m48.1 m66.6 m
Operating income201.0 m75.8 m16.9 m140.5 m151.7 m56.4 m-8.5 m117.1 m
Depreciation & amortisation41.6 m42.4 m41.7 m43.0 m44.7 m45.1 m45.1 m45.8 m
Interest expense39.7 m49.9 m34.1 m34.0 m33.5 m32.6 m31.7 m32.4 m
Pre-tax income161.3 m24.4 m-17.2 m106.3 m118.3 m19.1 m-40.0 m84.7 m
Income tax41.6 m-3.5 m-1.1 m26.2 m29.0 m4.0 m-5.9 m21.4 m
Net income119.7 m27.9 m-16.1 m80.1 m89.3 m15.1 m-34.1 m63.3 m
Diluted EPS2.080.50 ≈-0.291.451.610.28 ≈-0.691.34
Operating cash flow123.0 m ≈112.5 m25.7 m181.2 m ≈94.8 m ≈78.4 m66.8 m170.0 m ≈
Capex55.4 m ≈26.2 m56.9 m53.6 m ≈56.8 m ≈50.3 m69.6 m68.6 m ≈
Share repurchases216.4 m ≈37.7 m4.6 m4.6 m ≈7.1 m ≈144.1 m93.8 m126.4 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 36 percentile of its own 28-quarter history (min 10.3, median 14.8, max 152.3; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue1.4 bn1.4 bn431.8 m1.5 bn1.7 bn1.7 bn1.7 bn1.7 bn
Revenue YoY+8.6%+1.9%−69.1%+248.3%+15.1%−0.3%−0.1%−3.6%
Net income44.8 m89.5 m-312.3 m256.5 m291.2 m234.2 m227.5 m168.4 m
Net income YoYunavailable+99.8%−449.1%unavailable+13.5%−19.6%−2.9%−26.0%
Diluted EPS0.521.10-3.993.224.143.633.793.06
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable+111.5%−462.7%unavailable+28.6%−12.3%+4.4%−19.3%
net %3.3%6.4%-72.3%17.1%16.8%13.6%13.2%10.1%
Free cash flow114.2 m153.2 m-229.9 m374.2 m363.9 m200.1 m231.7 m162.6 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
99.8 m USD
Financial debt
2.2 bn USD
Net debt
2.1 bn USD
Equity
-435.8 m USD
Total assets
2.6 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
0.74x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
6.5%
FCF margin
9.8%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

SG&A
2023
221.2 m
2024
216.9 m
2025
227.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
459.8 m
2024
463.3 m
2025
365.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
154.2 m
2024
163.4 m
2025
174.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
614.0 m ≈
2024
626.7 m ≈
2025
539.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
146.7 m
2024
167.8 m
2025
134.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
313.1 m
2024
291.5 m
2025
226.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
78.9 m
2024
64.0 m
2025
58.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
234.2 m
2024
227.5 m
2025
168.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
3.63
2024
3.79
2025
3.06

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
64.5 m
2024
60.0 m
2025
55.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
246.9 m
2024
115.9 m
2025
99.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
73.8 m
2024
79.4 m
2025
77.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
49.2 m
2024
45.8 m
2025
51.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
390.2 m
2024
270.4 m
2025
282.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
1.8 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
66.3 m
2024
66.3 m
2025
66.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
2.6 bn
2024
2.6 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
12.0 m
2024
15.4 m
2025
15.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
2.1 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
410.9 m
2024
412.9 m
2025
384.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
2.8 bn
2024
3.0 bn
2025
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
-208.2 m †
2024
-461.5 m †
2025
-435.8 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
504.9 m
2024
480.1 m
2025
380.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
304.8 m
2024
248.4 m
2025
217.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
200.1 m ≈
2024
231.7 m ≈
2025
162.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-305.6 m
2024
-248.5 m
2025
-217.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-34.7 m
2024
-362.7 m
2025
-178.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
17.9 m
2024
482.9 m
2025
160.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-3.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-1.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
30.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-21.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-26.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-16.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-19.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-9.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
-29.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
30.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
19.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
8.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
10.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
ROA
5.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
14.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
2.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
4.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Interest coverage
2.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
410.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
245.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
164.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
123.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
82.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
22 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
1.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
3.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
11.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
13.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
7.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
0.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
12.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
2.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
9.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
10.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
2.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
24.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 54 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

34.19 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 1.6 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
1.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
13.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Net margin
8.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-3.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
2.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 07 Aug 2026
verified 2089derived 145

Score by group

  • Valuation84
  • Balance sheet19
  • Quality89
  • Growth0
  • Returns100

Estimated value range

Low
48.98
USD per share
Mid
78.97
USD per share
High
90.83
USD per share
Price: 34.19 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 131.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 56.7% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 4 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 9.59 – 170.95 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)51.75 – 170.95 (Mid 88.40)
    WACC 6.4% · starting FCFF 260.3 m USD · terminal value share of EV 83%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -20.5%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA49.40 – 82.80 (Mid 72.69)
    4 companies used · median multiple 11.2x · quartiles 9.0x – 12.1x
    BRSL, DIS, FBYD, MTN
  • Peers: P/E48.55 – 98.85 (Mid 85.25)
    7 companies used · median multiple 33.6x · quartiles 19.1x – 38.9x
    BRSL, DIS, MSGE, MTN, PRSU, RSI, SEAT
  • Dividend discount (DDM)9.59 – 12.90 (Mid 11.00)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation (SIC 7990)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 54/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality8.1%79 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality123.3%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-1.3%0 (on a fixed band)10%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-9.6%0 (on a fixed band)10%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet4.5x29 (vs peers)12%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet2.4x14 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.5x0 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation13.5x88 (vs peers)12%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation7.7x67 (on a fixed band)12%
FCF yield · Valuation10.6%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns24.0%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet19/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality89/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation84/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

United Parks & Resorts Inc. (PRKS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -3.6%; net margin 8.1%; net debt/EBITDA 4.5x.

The estimated value range is 48.98–90.83 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 78.97 USD, the price of 34.19 USD leaves a potential of 131.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 56.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 54/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 8.1%
  • FCF conversion: 123.3%
  • P/E (TTM): 13.5x
  • FCF yield: 10.6%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 24.0%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -1.3%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -9.6%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 4.5x
  • Interest coverage: 2.4x
  • Current ratio: 0.5x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation (SIC 7990) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
13.5x
vertical median 36.1x
below median (−62.8%)
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
vertical median 11.2x
below median (−31.4%)
P/S
0.9x
vertical median 1.9x
below median (−49.6%)
P/B
—
vertical median 2.0x
ROE
—
vertical median -15.9%
Net margin
8.1%
vertical median -2.7%
above median
EBIT margin
19.2%
vertical median 2.2%
above median (+791.1%)
Revenue YoY
-3.6%
vertical median 11.0%
below median (−133.0%)
Net debt/EBITDA
4.5x
vertical median 3.0x
above median (+50.8%)
Dividend yield
2.1%
vertical median 2.6%
below median (−17.6%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
DISWalt Disney Co205.4 bn24.57.8%8.7%+3.4%+14% / +28%
MTNVail Resorts, Inc.5.7 bn39.144.4%5.2%−4.3%+15% / −26%
RSIRush Street Interactive, Inc.2.5 bn40.923.0%2.6%+22.8%−33% / +193%
BRSLBrightstar Lottery PLC1.9 bn13.711.6%5.9%−0.0%−35% / −62%
PRKSUnited Parks & Resorts Inc.1.6 bn13.5—8.1%−3.6%−26% / −28%
PRSUPursuit Attractions and Hospitality, Inc.1.5 bn33.67.7%9.6%+23.4%+65% / +70%
NIPGNIP Group Inc.471.7 m—-15.9%-14.9%+1.9%−91% / unavailable
SEGSeaport Entertainment Group Inc.301.9 m—-22.6%-91.4%+18.3%+10% / unavailable
GENIGenius Sports Limited70.1 m—-17.2%-16.7%+31.0%−30% / +26%
SEATVivid Seats Inc.32.0 m0.02,000.9%278.1%−30.5%−63% / −98%
GRSDGrandstand Limited29.8 m—-28.5%-19.9%+30.1%−85% / −91%
FCHLFitness Champs Holdings Limited12.0 m—-349.1%-32.9%+4.7%−100% / unavailable
FBYDFalcon’s Beyond Global, Inc.77—-100.8%-36.0%+120.8%−62% / −26%
MSGSMsg Knickerbockers Corp.—983.9—0.7%+11.0%+38% / +86%
XPOFXponential Fitness, Inc.———-401.5%−20.7%−32% / −67%
DKNGDraftkings Inc.——-21.1%-2.7%+27.0%−30% / −40%
GDHGGolden Heaven Group Holdings Ltd.——-6.5%-56.2%−31.5%−75% / −100%
CDROCodere Online Luxembourg, S.A.——17.3%1.9%+24.2%+25% / +173%
STUBStubhub Holdings, Inc.——-145.8%-91.3%−1.4%−44% / unavailable
MSGEMadison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.—38.7—8.6%+12.5%+59% / +160%
ENHAEnhanced Group Inc.——-1,903.4%—unavailableunavailable / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for PRKS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
22.06
Total return -35% · Per year -35%
39.11
Total return 14% · Per year 14%
59.08
Total return 73% · Per year 73%
3 years
18.97
Total return -45% · Per year -18%
38.07
Total return 11% · Per year 4%
63.48
Total return 86% · Per year 23%
5 years
16.31
Total return -52% · Per year -14%
37.06
Total return 8% · Per year 2%
68.21
Total return 100% · Per year 15%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 9.52
  • Net margin± 6.66
  • Annual revenue growth± 5.79
  • Annual dilution± 0.56

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

United Parks & Resorts operates a portfolio of theme and entertainment parks under the SeaWorld, Busch Gardens, Aquatica, Discovery Cove and Sesame Place brands, grouped mainly in the United States. The company is going through a difficult stretch: both revenue and visitor numbers fell in 2025 and in the first half of 2026, while in-park spending per visitor rose. See 1 and 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Recognized brands and a unique zoological collection are assets that are hard to replicate and support attracting visitors from around the world 1. The diversified, geographically grouped portfolio allows shared ticket packages and operating efficiency 1.
  • The company has shown an ability to generate cash and has kept growing revenue per visitor, especially in-park spending 13.
  • The experience of the management team and animal care staff is a professional asset that is difficult to replace quickly 1.

Weaknesses

  • A high fixed cost structure means margins can fall quickly when revenues decline 1.
  • Visitor numbers fell in both 2025 and the first half of 2026, and net income dropped significantly 13.
  • Reliance on a few states, such as Florida, California and Virginia, exposes the company to concentrated regional risks 1.

Opportunities

  • Forward bookings for Discovery Cove and group business are rising, which could support revenue in the coming quarters 3.
  • Expanding seasonal events with licensed intellectual property could attract new audiences 3.
  • The share repurchase program, supported by cash flow, could support shareholder value if operating performance improves 3.

Threats

  • Falling international visits and uncertain economic conditions could reduce demand at the parks 13.
  • Unionization in some units and hiring difficulties could raise costs and affect the visitor experience 12.
  • Extreme weather events and climate change could close parks and affect visit frequency 1.

Risks

  • Demand sensitive to the economyhigh

    Discretionary consumer spending can fall when economic confidence weakens, and the source warns that interest rates and inflation also influence this behavior 1.

  • Workforce and unionizationmedium

    Recruitment and retention difficulties, along with increased union organizing, could disrupt operations and the quality of the experience 12.

  • Animal welfare regulationhigh

    Federal and state rules on animal treatment can change, and activist groups may turn to regulators or courts or create negative publicity 1.

  • Debt and credit ratingmedium

    The level of debt limits financial flexibility, and losing the current credit rating could raise the cost of funding 1.

  • Shareholder concentrationmedium

    The influence of a major shareholder over company decisions can create conflicts of interest with other shareholders 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Strong brands, a unique zoological collection and a portfolio that is hard to replicate could support a recovery in traffic once temporary factors fade 13.
  • Rising in-park spending per visitor and growing forward sales for groups and Discovery Cove could partly offset lower visitor numbers 3.
  • Operating cash generation and the share repurchase program could support value for shareholders if operating performance improves 3.

What would break the thesis

  • Continued declines in visitor numbers and net income could point to a structural, not just temporary, weakening of demand 13.
  • High fixed costs and wage pressure could limit margins even if revenues stabilize 1.
  • Dependence on international visitors and on certain regions could expose the company to unexpected shocks 13.

What to watch

  • Trend in visitor numbers and international visitsQ3 2026
  • Development of in-park spending per visitor and total revenueQ3 2026
  • Forward ticket sales for the Halloween and Christmas eventsQ4 2026
  • Pace of share repurchases and free cash flownext 10-Q

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

The company presents itself as a leader in theme parks and entertainment and earns its revenue mainly from selling admission tickets, then from food, merchandise and other in-park services 1. Its portfolio includes 13 theme parks, of which 12 are owned and operated directly, plus a licensed SeaWorld park in the United Arab Emirates 1. A distinctive element is one of the largest zoological collections in the world, combined with marine animal rescue programs 1. For fiscal 2025, total revenues were 1662.6 million USD and attendance was 21.2 million, with revenues down 3.6% from 2024 1.

The cost structure is dominated by high fixed costs, notably wages, benefits, maintenance, animal care, utilities and insurance, which makes margins sensitive to any drop in revenue 1. The company also relies on revenue per visitor: total revenue per capita, split between admission and in-park spending, is the metric management watches most closely 12. In 2025, operating income fell 21.1% from the prior year, a sign that cost pressure outweighed the gains from pricing 1.

Activity is seasonal, although parks open year-round soften the effect; traditionally most revenue falls in the second and third quarters, and the first quarter usually shows a loss 1. For 2026, the first-half picture fits this pattern, with summer events and the Halloween and Christmas seasons supporting traffic 3.

Segments

SeaWorld parks

The SeaWorld parks are the company's flagship brand, with parks in San Diego, Orlando and San Antonio, all counted among the most visited in the industry 1. They combine animal encounters, shows and roller coasters, and Orlando and San Diego rank among the top 20 theme parks in North America by attendance 1.

Busch Gardens and Aquatica

The Busch Gardens parks in Tampa Bay and Williamsburg are family-oriented destinations with many roller coasters and zoological exhibits, while the Aquatica water parks, linked to SeaWorld, offer premium water experiences 1. Aquatica Orlando is ranked as the third most attended water park in North America 1.

Discovery Cove and Sesame Place

Discovery Cove is an all-inclusive park with reservations only that limits entries for a more intimate experience, and Sesame Place is the only park in the United States entirely dedicated to the Sesame Street show 1. Management noted that forward bookings for Discovery Cove and group business are growing double digits, a positive signal for these segments 3.

Market context

The American theme park market is characterized, according to the source, by a limited supply of suitable land, high upfront investment and zoning restrictions, which constrain the number of large parks that can be built 1. Demand depends heavily on tourism, weather, consumer confidence and exchange rates, and international visits declined in 2026 13.

For a company in this market, management signaled that lower international visits and calendar shifts had a visible effect on traffic in the second quarter of 2026 3. Still, rising in-park spending shows that the visitors who do come generate higher revenue per head 3.

Trends

  • Decline in international visitsheadwind

    Management reports a continued decline in international visits, which contributed to lower traffic in the first half of 2026 3. If this trend persists, revenue could stay under pressure, particularly at parks with more foreign visitors 1.

  • Rising in-park spendingtailwind

    In-park spending per visitor reached a record for the second quarter of 2026, helped by higher penetration and pricing initiatives 3. This trend partly offsets the drop in visitor numbers and supports total revenue per visitor 2.

  • Weather and calendar shiftsheadwind

    Unfavorable weather and the shift in the timing of Easter reduced traffic in both the first and second quarters of 2026 3. Outdoor activity makes the parks vulnerable to extreme events, and climate change can amplify this risk 1.

  • Seasonal events and licensed intellectual propertymixed

    The company plans to expand its Halloween events with licensed film titles, which could attract new visitors and diversify revenue sources 3. Forward ticket sales for Howl O' Scream are already running ahead of last year, but the final effect depends on actual attendance 3.

Competitive position

The sources indicate that the company's parks compete with other industry attractions and with holiday destinations in the same regions, and competitiveness depends on new attractions, pricing and the in-park experience 1. The company considers itself advantaged by its recognized brands, its zoological collection that is hard to replicate and its locations on valuable land 1.

Competitive pressure rises when customers choose between different destinations, and the source notes that some ticket resellers ended their relationships with the company because of brand perception 2. The company therefore needs to protect its reputation and diversify its offer to keep its market share 1.

  • Other zoological-themed attractions

    The source mentions other zoological-themed attractions with which the company competes for visitors and partners, but does not name them.

  • Theme park destinations in Orlando

    Orlando is described as the world's largest theme park destination, which means the company's parks compete with many other attractions in the area.

  • Ticket resellers

    Some ticket resellers have ended relationships with the company, which affects access to ticket sales.

  • Other theme and water parks in North America

    Attendance rankings show that the company's parks compete with other major attractions across North America.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 11 May 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 22 Sept 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / United Parks & Resorts Inc. · 03 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / United Parks & Resorts Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / United Parks & Resorts Inc. · 04 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.