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olivLaw · US equity research

Xponential Fitness, Inc. XPOF

Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation · SIC 7990 · Vertical: Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation (SIC 7990)

4.53USD−0.44% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Xponential Fitness is a global franchisor of boutique health and wellness brands spanning Pilates, barre, stretching, functional training and yoga. The company is going through a period of declining sales and profitability in 2026, with its guidance cut to North America system-wide sales of 1.70 billion USD and revenue of 250 million USD.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) stock was 4.53 USD (−0.44% on the day), with beta 1.09, 52-week range 3.65–9.00 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 2.7 m USD (−1.0% YoY), net income of -4.1 m USD (−526.9% YoY), diluted EPS -0.10 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
unavailable
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -1.23 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-27.23%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.09
Volatility (1y) 93%
52-week range
3.659.00

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
52.5
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
3.81 – 5.11
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.55 · band width 29.2%
SMA 50 / 200
4.46 / 5.99
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.03 / -0.07
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−2.4%−1.1%−1.3 pp—
3 months−32.6%−0.5%−32.1 pp—
6 months−31.7%+4.4%−36.1 pp—
Year to date−45.0%+12.3%−57.3 pp—
1 year−29.8%+13.5%−43.3 pp−30.4%
3 years−68.1%+76.4%−144.6 pp−25.8%
5 years−75.6%+63.7%−139.3 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−59.4%
02 Feb 2026 → 18 Sept 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−89.0%
28 Apr 2023 → 18 Sept 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−24.6%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
2.7 m USD
−1.0% YoY
Net income
-4.1 m USD
−526.9% YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.10
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-153.1% / 352.0%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue3.8 m3.1 m2.6 m2.7 m2.4 m3.4 m2.2 m2.7 m
SG&A46.2 m57.1 m45.5 m24.1 m24.7 m57.7 m30.0 m32.0 m
Operating income-6.6 m-51.9 m9.7 m14.8 m3.6 m-8.2 m13.0 m9.5 m
Depreciation & amortisation4.2 m4.5 m3.0 m3.0 m3.7 m2.4 m2.3 m1.8 m
Interest expense11.8 m11.6 m11.4 m13.0 m12.9 m11.9 m14.5 m14.9 m
Pre-tax income-18.0 m-63.0 m-2.2 m1.7 m-6.5 m-45.4 m-814.0 k-4.8 m
Income tax131.0 k-558.0 k485.0 k312.0 k266.0 k259.0 k6.0 k65.0 k
Net income-12.1 m-43.5 m-1.9 m969.0 k-4.9 m-32.9 m-725.0 k-4.1 m
Diluted EPS-0.29-1.32 ≈-0.10-0.01-0.18-0.93 ≈-0.02-0.10
Operating cash flow5.2 m ≈776.0 k5.8 m2.5 m ≈9.3 m ≈10.7 m-21.7 m-4.0 m ≈
Capex1.8 m ≈-102.0 k465.0 k1.5 m ≈1.1 m ≈511.0 k464.0 k272.0 k ≈
Share repurchases—0——————

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year201920202021⚠ 2022202320242025
Revenue129.1 m1.2 m2.7 m12.2 m13.4 m14.0 m11.1 m
Revenue YoYunavailable−99.1%+126.0%—+9.1%+4.7%−20.7%
Net income-37.1 m-13.6 m-18.8 m1.2 m-4.0 m-67.7 m-38.7 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable—−429.3%unavailableunavailable
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailable-2.85-0.88-0.52-2.27-1.47
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable—unavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-28.8%-1,124.5%-686.9%9.9%-29.9%-483.7%-348.7%
Free cash flow-5.7 m-2.6 m10.8 m43.1 m25.3 m7.0 m24.7 m

The series breaks before 2022: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
45.9 m USD
Financial debt
505.8 m USD
Net debt
459.9 m USD
Equity
-372.0 m USD
Total assets
345.6 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
0.82x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
-10.3%
FCF margin
223.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
13.4 m
2024
14.0 m
2025
11.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Mar 2025verified

Gross profit
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Mar 2025derived

SG&A
2023
168.9 m
2024
176.9 m
2025
152.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
34.9 m
2024
-53.6 m
2025
19.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
16.9 m
2024
17.7 m
2025
12.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
51.8 m ≈
2024
-35.9 m ≈
2025
31.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
38.7 m
2024
46.3 m
2025
49.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-5.4 m
2024
-99.0 m
2025
-52.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
1.0 m
2024
-342.0 k
2025
1.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-4.0 m
2024
-67.7 m
2025
-38.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.52
2024
-2.27
2025
-1.47

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
39.7 m
2024
32.0 m
2025
34.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
37.1 m
2024
32.7 m
2025
45.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
31.6 m
2024
25.9 m
2025
18.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
15.6 m
2024
10.0 m
2025
2.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
97.0 m
2024
84.1 m
2025
94.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
19.5 m
2024
14.7 m
2025
10.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
170.7 m
2024
135.2 m
2025
127.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
120.1 m
2024
100.9 m
2025
66.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
529.5 m
2024
403.4 m
2025
345.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
18.6 m
2024
27.0 m
2025
26.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
4.8 m
2024
5.4 m
2025
5.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
319.3 m
2024
341.7 m
2025
500.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
102.2 m
2024
107.9 m
2025
116.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
624.4 m
2024
597.4 m
2025
717.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
-209.5 m
2024
-310.8 m
2025
-372.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
32.7 m
2024
11.7 m
2025
28.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
7.4 m
2024
4.7 m
2025
3.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
25.3 m ≈
2024
7.0 m ≈
2025
24.7 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-11.7 m
2024
-14.1 m
2025
1.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-21.3 m
2024
-1.9 m
2025
-16.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
50.4 m
2024
0
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-20.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-3.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
55.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
255.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
264.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
168.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-401.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-76.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
ROA
-12.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
8.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
479.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
17.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Interest coverage
0.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-5.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
2.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-8.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
-20.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
931 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
unavailable
input data missing
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
input data missing
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-27.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
input data missing
P/S
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 5 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

4.53 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: unavailable

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
unavailable
input data missing
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Net margin
-401.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-20.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

33/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 07 Aug 2026
verified 875derived 75

Score by group

35% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation (SIC 7990)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-401.5%0 (vs peers)18%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-3.3%0 (on a fixed band)24%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet17.1x0 (vs peers)29%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet0.3x0 (on a fixed band)18%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.7x0 (on a fixed band)12%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet0/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 11.1 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -20.7%; net margin -401.5%; net debt/EBITDA 17.1x.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: -401.5%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -3.3%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 17.1x
  • Interest coverage: 0.3x
  • Current ratio: 0.7x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation (SIC 7990) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 33.6x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 10.4x
P/S
—
vertical median 1.7x
P/B
—
vertical median 2.0x
ROE
—
vertical median -15.9%
Net margin
-401.5%
vertical median 0.7%
below median (−59,800.3%)
EBIT margin
168.8%
vertical median 2.2%
above median (+7,720.2%)
Revenue YoY
-20.7%
vertical median 11.0%
below median (−287.7%)
Net debt/EBITDA
17.1x
vertical median 3.0x
above median (+468.5%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.2%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
DISWalt Disney Co205.4 bn24.57.8%8.7%+3.4%+14% / +28%
MTNVail Resorts, Inc.5.7 bn39.144.4%5.2%−4.3%+15% / −26%
RSIRush Street Interactive, Inc.2.5 bn40.923.0%2.6%+22.8%−33% / +193%
BRSLBrightstar Lottery PLC1.9 bn13.711.6%5.9%−0.0%−35% / −62%
PRKSUnited Parks & Resorts Inc.1.6 bn13.5—8.1%−3.6%−5% / −30%
PRSUPursuit Attractions and Hospitality, Inc.1.5 bn33.67.7%9.6%+23.4%+65% / +70%
NIPGNIP Group Inc.471.7 m—-15.9%-14.9%+1.9%−91% / unavailable
SEGSeaport Entertainment Group Inc.301.9 m—-22.6%-91.4%+18.3%+10% / unavailable
GENIGenius Sports Limited70.1 m—-17.2%-16.7%+31.0%−30% / +26%
SEATVivid Seats Inc.32.0 m0.02,000.9%278.1%−30.5%−63% / −98%
GRSDGrandstand Limited29.8 m—-28.5%-19.9%+30.1%−85% / −91%
FCHLFitness Champs Holdings Limited12.0 m—-349.1%-32.9%+4.7%−100% / unavailable
FBYDFalcon’s Beyond Global, Inc.77—-100.8%-36.0%+120.8%−62% / −26%
MSGEMadison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.—38.7—8.6%+12.5%+59% / +160%
XPOFXponential Fitness, Inc.———-401.5%−20.7%−30% / −68%
GDHGGolden Heaven Group Holdings Ltd.——-6.5%-56.2%−31.5%−75% / −100%
MSGSMsg Knickerbockers Corp.—983.9—0.7%+11.0%+38% / +86%
STUBStubhub Holdings, Inc.——-145.8%-91.3%−1.4%−44% / unavailable
DKNGDraftkings Inc.——-21.1%-2.7%+27.0%−30% / −40%
CDROCodere Online Luxembourg, S.A.——17.3%1.9%+24.2%+25% / +173%
ENHAEnhanced Group Inc.——-1,903.4%—unavailableunavailable / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for XPOF from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Scenarios are not available. input data missing

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Xponential Fitness is a global franchisor of boutique health and wellness brands spanning Pilates, barre, stretching, functional training and yoga. The company is going through a period of declining sales and profitability in 2026, with its guidance cut to North America system-wide sales of 1.70 billion USD and revenue of 250 million USD 2 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Diversified portfolio of five brands with leading positions in Pilates and barre, offering diversification in a fragmented market.
  • Franchise model with high recurring revenue and low capital needs, supporting a stable royalty base.
  • Loyal base of paying members and a large network of open studios in North America with room to expand.

Weaknesses

  • Declining same store sales and average unit volume in 2026 point to pressure on studio performance.
  • A considerable share of licenses are delayed versus the opening schedule and inactive, which complicates growth forecasting.
  • Long-term debt is significant relative to available cash, and operating cash flow was negative in the second quarter of 2026.

Opportunities

  • If franchisees manage to resume franchise sales in paused states, license growth could recover.
  • International expansion through master franchise agreements and digital service growth could diversify revenue sources.
  • Realizing restructuring savings and cost efficiencies could improve margins if sales stabilize.

Threats

  • Economic pressure on consumers and franchisees may reduce demand for memberships and financing of new studios.
  • Boutique fitness competition and shifting consumer preferences could affect brand value.
  • Regulatory inquiries and litigation over franchise compliance can generate costs and slow sales.

Risks

  • Dependence on franchisee performancehigh

    Company revenue depends largely on franchisee royalties, so financial problems at franchisees pass directly to the parent company.

  • Delayed studio openingshigh

    A large number of licenses are delayed or inactive, and the conversion of signed commitments into open studios is uncertain.

  • High indebtednesshigh

    Long-term debt is large, and companies with this structure may have less room to manoeuvre if revenue falls.

  • Regulatory investigations into franchisingmedium

    Inquiries into compliance with state franchise laws may limit sales and could lead to fines or legal costs.

  • Restructuring costsmedium

    Lease exits and restructuring may generate larger expenses than estimated, reducing the expected savings.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If same store sales stabilize, the five-brand portfolio and large studio base could support a recovery in recurring royalties.
  • A low-capital model with predominantly recurring revenue may allow the company to fund growth without major own investment.
  • Resuming franchise sales in paused states and completing restructuring could improve margins and cash flow.

What would break the thesis

  • The decline in same store sales and average unit volume could continue, reducing royalties and company revenue.
  • High indebtedness and negative operating cash flow could limit financial flexibility if guidance is not met.
  • Regulatory inquiries and pauses in franchise sales could prolong the slowdown in growth.

What to watch

  • Development of same store sales in North AmericaQ3 2026
  • Delivery of the revised 2026 guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA2026
  • Resumption of franchise sales in states with pending registrationQ4 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Xponential Fitness, Inc. operates through its subsidiary XPO LLC a franchise model with low capital needs, in which franchisees fund studio openings while the company earns upfront fees, recurring royalties, technology fees, marketing and training revenue. According to the annual report, about 78% of 2025 revenue was considered recurring 1. The company argues that a multi-brand portfolio and shared platform reduce franchisee acquisition costs and accelerate growth. As of June 30, 2026 it had 2,645 open studios in North America and 520 internationally 2.

Trends

  • Decline in same store salesheadwind

    Same store sales in North America fell in the second quarter of 2026 after a small increase in the prior year 3. If the decline continues, royalties and franchisor revenue could be affected.

  • Pauses in franchise salesheadwind

    Franchise sales have been temporarily paused in several states due to the review of disclosure documents (FDDs) and an inquiry in Maryland 12. Registration delays could reduce future license revenue.

Competitive position

According to the annual report, the company competes in a fragmented boutique fitness market where most rivals are single-brand companies 1. Competition for consumers and qualified instructors is an explicitly named risk 1.

The company's stated advantage is diversification across five brands, which allows studios to sit close together and offer complementary services 1. The supplied sources do not name listed competitors, so no tickers can be given.

  • Single-brand Pilates, barre and yoga operators

    Competitors are described in the source as mainly single-brand companies in the same verticals, without named entities in the supplied texts.

  • Independent stretching and functional training studios

    The source mentions competition from group training formats and local studios, with no details on listed entities.

  • Traditional fitness clubs

    Boutique fitness differs from the classic club, which may attract the same consumers, according to the report's description.

  • Digital workout platforms

    The company is expanding its digital content, which places it indirectly against online training platforms, mentioned only generically.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

  • Current report13 Oct 2026
    Material agreement · Item 3.03 · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report08 Sept 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
  • Current report06 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report26 May 2026
    Shareholder vote
  • Current report18 May 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report14 May 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers
  • Quarterly report08 May 2026
  • Current report07 May 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Proxy statement24 Apr 2026

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Xponential Fitness, Inc. · 04 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Xponential Fitness, Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Xponential Fitness, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.