olivLaw · US equity research
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. FCX
Metal Mining · SIC 1000 · Vertical: Metal Mining (SIC 1000)
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is a major copper producer with operations in Indonesia, the United States and South America. In the first half of 2026, U.S. copper mine operating income more than doubled, while output from Grasberg, affected by the September 2025 incident, is gradually recovering. Consolidated debt stood at 9.4 billion USD at June 30 2026.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) stock was 62.60 USD (+1.34% on the day), with market capitalisation 89.9 bn USD, P/E 29.2 on diluted EPS of 2.14 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.96%, beta 1.77, 52-week range 38.65–79.91 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 7.0 bn USD (−7.3% YoY), net income of 984.0 m USD (+27.5% YoY), diluted EPS 0.68 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 33.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 60.32 – 74.75
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.16 · band width 21.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 70.64 / 65.25
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -2.27 / -1.72
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −13.8% | −1.1% | −12.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −9.8% | −0.5% | −9.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +2.8% | +4.4% | −1.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +23.3% | +12.3% | +10.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +58.8% | +13.5% | +45.3 pp | −10.3% |
| 3 years | +78.1% | +76.4% | +1.7 pp | +102.6% |
| 5 years | +69.0% | +63.7% | +5.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.8 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.7 bn | 7.6 bn | 7.0 bn | 5.6 bn | 6.2 bn | 7.0 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 4.7 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.2 bn | 5.0 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.8 bn |
| SG&A | 117.0 m | 129.0 m | 154.0 m | 127.0 m | 131.0 m | 133.0 m | 162.0 m | 135.0 m |
| Operating income | 1.9 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.0 bn | 811.0 m | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 600.0 m ≈ | 537.0 m | 466.0 m | 668.0 m ≈ | 625.0 m ≈ | 485.0 m | 514.0 m | 523.0 m ≈ |
| Pre-tax income | 2.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 766.0 m | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn |
| Income tax | 737.0 m | 520.0 m | 500.0 m | 850.0 m | 669.0 m | 202.0 m | 653.0 m | 544.0 m |
| Net income | 1.2 bn | 721.0 m | 793.0 m | 772.0 m | 1.2 bn | 565.0 m | 1.4 bn | 984.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.36 | 0.50 ≈ | 0.24 | 0.53 | 0.46 | 0.39 ≈ | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| Operating cash flow | 1.9 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn | 1.1 bn | 2.2 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 693.0 m | 1.5 bn | 2.0 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 973.0 m | — |
| Dividends paid | 216.0 m ≈ | 216.0 m | 218.0 m | 215.0 m ≈ | 216.0 m ≈ | 216.0 m | 218.0 m | 216.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 59.0 m ≈ | 0 | 55.0 m | 52.0 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | 93.0 m | 110.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 79 percentile of its own 34-quarter history (min 5.8, median 21.6, max 163.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 18.6 bn | 14.4 bn | 14.2 bn | 22.8 bn | 22.8 bn | 22.9 bn | 25.5 bn | 25.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +13.6% | −22.7% | −1.4% | +60.9% | −0.3% | +0.3% | +11.4% | +1.8% |
| Net income | 2.9 bn | -189.0 m | 865.0 m | 5.4 bn | 4.5 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.2 bn |
| Net income YoY | +38.1% | −106.5% | unavailable | +520.2% | −16.5% | −16.3% | +17.3% | −5.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.78 | -0.17 | 0.41 | 2.90 | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +42.4% | −109.6% | unavailable | +607.3% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 15.5% | -1.3% | 6.1% | 23.5% | 19.7% | 16.4% | 17.3% | 16.0% |
| Free cash flow | 1.9 bn | -1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 5.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 455.0 m | 2.4 bn | 1.1 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 3.8 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 9.4 bn USD
- Net debt
- 5.6 bn USD
- Equity
- 30.8 bn USD
- Total assets
- 58.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.30x
- Current ratio
- 2.29x
- ROE
- 13.9%
- ROA
- 7.3%
- FCF margin
- 4.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14.2 bn | 22.8 bn | 22.8 bn | 22.9 bn | 25.5 bn | 25.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 11.7 bn | 14.0 bn | 15.1 bn | 15.7 bn | 17.8 bn | 18.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.5 bn ≈ | 8.8 bn ≈ | 7.7 bn ≈ | 7.2 bn ≈ | 7.7 bn ≈ | 7.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| SG&A | 370.0 m | 383.0 m | 420.0 m | 479.0 m | 513.0 m | 545.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 2.4 bn | 8.4 bn | 7.0 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.9 bn | 6.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.5 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 4.0 bn ≈ | 10.4 bn ≈ | 9.1 bn ≈ | 8.3 bn ≈ | 9.1 bn ≈ | 8.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 1.8 bn | 7.7 bn | 6.7 bn | 6.0 bn | 6.9 bn | 6.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 944.0 m | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 865.0 m | 5.4 bn | 4.5 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.41 | 2.90 | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 15 Feb 2022verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 3.7 bn | 8.1 bn | 8.1 bn | 4.8 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 892.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 578.0 m | 977.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 9.3 bn | 14.8 bn | 15.6 bn | 14.1 bn | 13.3 bn | 13.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 29.8 bn | 30.3 bn | 32.6 bn | 35.3 bn | 38.5 bn | 40.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 401.0 m | 412.0 m | 416.0 m | 422.0 m | 428.0 m | 432.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 42.1 bn | 48.0 bn | 51.1 bn | 52.5 bn | 54.8 bn | 58.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.5 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 34.0 m | 372.0 m | 1.0 bn | 766.0 m | 41.0 m | 466.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 9.7 bn | 9.1 bn | 9.6 bn | 8.7 bn | 8.9 bn | 8.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 3.4 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.3 bn | 5.8 bn | 5.5 bn | 6.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 23.5 bn | 25.0 bn | 26.2 bn | 25.2 bn | 26.1 bn | 27.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 18.7 bn | 23.0 bn | 24.9 bn | 27.3 bn | 28.8 bn | 30.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 3.0 bn | 7.7 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.3 bn | 7.2 bn | 5.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 1.1 bn ≈ | 5.6 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 455.0 m ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.3 bn | -2.0 bn | -3.4 bn | -5.0 bn | -5.0 bn | -4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -128.0 m | -1.3 bn | -1.6 bn | -2.7 bn | -3.3 bn | -1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 1.0 bn | 866.0 m | 863.0 m | 865.0 m | 865.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 488.0 m | 1.3 bn | 0 | 59.0 m | 107.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 49 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 89.9 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet98
- Growth37
- Quality47
- Returns48
- Valuation29
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 7.88 – 92.86 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDA70.70 – 92.86 (Mid 82.75)4 companies used · median multiple 13.7x · quartiles 11.8x – 15.3xCLF, ERO, HBM, SCCO
- Peers: P/E25.79 – 35.92 (Mid 29.76)7 companies used · median multiple 13.9x · quartiles 12.0x – 16.8xBVN, ERO, HBM, NEXA, RIO, SCCO, TMC
- Dividend discount (DDM)7.88 – 10.60 (Mid 9.04)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 49/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 13.2% | 55 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Net margin · Quality | 16.2% | 68 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 38.4% | 12 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 4.4% | 37 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 98 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 29.2x | 22 (vs peers) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 10.5x | 41 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 1.8% | 22 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.2% | 17 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 54.0% | 94 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet98/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial37/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality47/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns48/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation29/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 25.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 1.8%; net margin 16.2%; ROE 21.8%; net debt/EBITDA 0.6x.
The estimated value range is 25.79–35.92 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 29.76 USD, the price of 62.60 USD leaves a potential of -52.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -110.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 49/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.6x
- Current ratio: 2.1x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 54.0%
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: 38.4%
- P/E (TTM): 29.2x
- FCF yield: 1.8%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.2%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Interest coverage.
Versus the vertical median
Metal Mining (SIC 1000) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 26 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHPBhp Group Limited | 406.8 bn | 45.2 | 19.5% | 17.6% | −7.9% | +46% / +31% |
| SCCOSouthern Copper Corp | 149.3 bn | 23.0 | 53.2% | 37.3% | +17.4% | +35% / +163% |
| RIORio Tinto PLC | 106.2 bn | 13.9 | 17.0% | 17.3% | +7.4% | +18% / +22% |
| FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc. | 89.9 bn | 29.2 | 21.8% | 16.2% | +1.8% | +59% / +78% |
| HBMHudbay Minerals Inc. | 8.8 bn | 15.4 | 19.7% | 25.7% | +9.4% | +31% / +388% |
| CLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc. | 7.3 bn | — | -8.5% | -2.4% | −3.0% | −2% / −25% |
| BVNBuenaventura Mining Co Inc | 7.3 bn | 18.1 | 12.6% | 34.9% | +40.1% | +16% / +202% |
| MPMP Materials Corp. | 6.4 bn | — | -4.1% | -19.9% | +10.1% | −42% / +126% |
| EROEro Copper Corp | 3.2 bn | 12.2 | 34.6% | 33.6% | +67.1% | +21% / +150% |
| NEXANexa Resources S.A. | 1.6 bn | 11.9 | 14.6% | 4.4% | +8.5% | +70% / +103% |
| IEIvanhoe Electric Inc. | 1.2 bn | — | -8.4% | -1,138.7% | +11.8% | −46% / −32% |
| USARUSA Rare Earth, Inc. | 1.1 bn | — | -23.6% | -2,159.3% | unavailable | −39% / −20% |
| TMCTMC the metals Co Inc. | 1.0 bn | 4.2 | -1,123.2% | — | unavailable | −67% / +103% |
| USASAmericas Gold And Silver Corporation | 986.9 m | — | -61.6% | -74.1% | +17.7% | −31% / +413% |
| ASMAvino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. | 769.3 m | 79.0 | 7.0% | 12.2% | +50.8% | −15% / +746% |
| LARLithium Argentina AG | 682.1 m | — | -9.5% | — | +12.9% | −24% / −21% |
| SGMLSigma Lithium Corporation | 626.1 m | — | -67.4% | -45.6% | −27.3% | −50% / −81% |
| GSMFerroglobe PLC | 547.5 m | — | -25.9% | -12.8% | −18.8% | −34% / −49% |
| ALOYRealloys Inc. | 459.5 m | — | -155.8% | -5,144.4% | −5.3% | −5% / +68% |
| THMInternational Tower Hill Mines Ltd | 455.2 m | — | -2.8% | — | unavailable | −10% / +222% |
| LZMLifezone Metals Limited | 336.9 m | — | -16.7% | -1,289.2% | +652.2% | +1% / −60% |
| USAUU.s. Gold Corp. | 186.4 m | — | -55.2% | — | −30.9% | −35% / +239% |
| PZGParamount Gold Nevada Corp. | 83.9 m | — | -46.1% | — | −54.7% | −20% / +146% |
| WWRWestwater Resources, Inc. | 52.5 m | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | −57% / −33% |
| COPRIdaho Copper Corporation | 25.7 m | — | -187.5% | — | −63.5% | unavailable / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FCX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 50.28 Total return -19% · Per year -19% | 88.89 Total return 43% · Per year 43% | 133.90 Total return 116% · Per year 116% |
| 3 years | 48.69 Total return -19% · Per year -7% | 96.87 Total return 59% · Per year 17% | 160.23 Total return 161% · Per year 38% |
| 5 years | 47.15 Total return -20% · Per year -4% | 105.56 Total return 76% · Per year 12% | 191.74 Total return 216% · Per year 26% |
- Exit P/E± 24.22
- Net margin± 16.95
- Annual revenue growth± 13.93
- Annual dilution± 1.42
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 02 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is a major copper producer with operations in Indonesia, the United States and South America. In the first half of 2026, U.S. copper mine operating income more than doubled, while output from Grasberg, affected by the September 2025 incident, is gradually recovering 23. Consolidated debt stood at 9.4 billion USD at June 30 2026 2.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Delays in Grasberg ramp-uphigh
If the restart of the Grasberg mine is delayed, volumes and costs could be materially affected 13.
- Falling commodity priceshigh
A prolonged decline in copper or gold prices could force reduced operations and affect the ability to service debt 1.
- Indonesia risksmedium
Political, regulatory and environmental conditions in Indonesia could affect operations, and failure to meet commitments for extending the IUPK is a risk 1.
- Consumables costmedium
Volatility in energy and other consumable prices could raise production costs 1.
- Operational and weather riskslow
Flooding, power outages and strong winds can reduce operating rates, as seen in the U.S. in third-quarter 2026 3.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the Grasberg ramp-up follows plan, sales volumes could rise in the second half, supported by higher U.S. output.
- Leaching initiatives and a possible Bagdad expansion could add production without relying only on new deposits.
- Long-term copper fundamentals tied to green energy and electric vehicles could support demand if these sectors develop.
What would break the thesis
- If delays in Indonesia persist, idle facility costs could stay high and weigh on financial results.
- A fall in metal prices could reduce cash flows and the capacity for share buybacks or dividends.
- Trade tensions and tariffs could affect demand and costs in ways that are hard to anticipate.
What to watch
- Grasberg ramp-up progress toward 80% of capacitymid-2027
- Investment decision on doubling Bagdad concentrator capacityyear-end 2026
- Third-quarter 2026 earnings results and updated guidance27 October 2026
- Achievement of the 300 million pound leaching run-rate targetend of 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 02 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
FCX describes itself as an international metals company with the objective of being foremost in copper, headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona 2. Its assets include the Grasberg district in Indonesia, one of the world's largest copper and gold deposits, and significant operations in the U.S. (Morenci, Arizona) and Peru (Cerro Verde) 23. The company also produces molybdenum and is one of the world's largest publicly traded copper producers 3.
Grasberg output was affected by the September 2025 mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine, and the phased ramp-up continues 12. In third-quarter 2026 mill throughput averaged about 67% of normalized pre-incident rates, and the Eastern Java smelter restarted in late August 2026 3. The company expects to reach 80% of capacity in mid-2027 3.
Financially, FCX reported net income attributable to common stockholders of 984 million USD in second-quarter 2026 and 1.9 billion USD for the first six months of 2026 2. It repurchased shares worth 203 million USD in the first half of 2026 and has 2.8 billion USD available under a 5.0 billion USD repurchase program 2.
Market context
FCX results depend heavily on copper and gold prices, and to a lesser extent molybdenum, which are volatile and shaped by demand, trade policy and tariffs 1. The company views long-term copper fundamentals as favorable, supported by the energy transition, electric vehicles and data centers and artificial intelligence, though this depends on those sectors developing as expected 1. The average realized copper price in third-quarter 2026 is expected to exceed 6.50 USD per pound 3.
Copper demand from China, the largest consumer, and U.S.-China trade tensions can influence prices 1. Gold is affected by central bank purchases and demand from China and India 1. A prolonged price decline could force the company to revise operating plans and cut capital spending 1.
Trends
- Energy transition demandtailwind
Copper is central to renewable power, electric vehicles and data centers, which could sustain long-term demand if these sectors develop as expected 1.
- Tariffs and trade policyheadwind
Tariffs and trade restrictions are hard to predict and can affect copper prices, costs and supply chains 1.
- Grasberg recoverymixed
Progress in the Grasberg ramp-up could lift second-half sales volumes, but delays could prolong idle facility costs 23.
- Consumables and energy costsheadwind
Energy, diesel and other consumable prices are volatile and could raise production costs, especially if supply chains are disrupted 12.
Competitive position
The supplied sources do not detail FCX's competitors, so the competitive analysis is limited to available information. FCX describes itself as one of the world's largest publicly traded copper producers, which suggests a significant position in the global market 3.
Geographic diversification across Indonesia, the U.S. and South America may reduce exposure to any single region, but it also exposes the company to different political and operational risks 12.
- Other large publicly traded copper producers
The sources do not name specific competitors; FCX describes itself only as one of the largest listed copper producers.
- South American copper producers
Regional competition is not detailed in the supplied sources.
- Asian copper producers
The sources identify no Asian competitors; China appears only as a consumer market.
- Gold and molybdenum producers
The sources do not detail competitors in gold or molybdenum.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Freeport Green-Lights $4.5 Billion Copper Expansion in ArizonaBloomberg Markets · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Super-Strong Metal’s Surge Has Freeport Dusting Off Growth PlansBloomberg Markets · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- Why Did Freeport-McMoRan Stock Drop On Doubts Over A Tariff It Would Gain From?Yahoo Finance — News · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- Copper Stocks Tumble as Tariff Doubt Reverses Record Rally: Freeport-McMoRan Sinks 8%, Teck Resources and Southern Copper Drop 7%Yahoo Finance — News · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Freeport-McMoRan Has Ripped 44% in 2026. What Would It Take to Get FCX Stock Up to $100?Yahoo Finance — News · 07 Sept 2026 · EN
- How Is Freeport-McMoRan’s Stock Performance Compared to Other Copper StocksYahoo Finance — News · 04 Sept 2026 · EN
- Freeport-McMoRan Diversifies Your Return, Not Your RiskYahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report04 Nov 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report27 Oct 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Oct 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Sept 2026Other events
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report23 Jul 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report10 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report20 May 2026Material agreement · Termination of a material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report08 May 2026
- Proxy statement23 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Freeport-McMoRan Inc. · 13 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Freeport-McMoRan Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Freeport-McMoRan Inc. · 02 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.