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olivLaw · US equity research

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. FERG

Wholesale-Hardware & Plumbing & Heating Equipment & Supplies · SIC 5070 · Vertical: Wholesale — durable goods (SIC 50xx)

248.53USD+2.70% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. is North America's largest value-added distributor of water and air solutions, serving a construction market of 340 billion USD. In fiscal 2025 net sales reached 30.8 billion USD, up 3.8%. In the second quarter of 2026 sales grew 4.6% and full-year 2026 guidance was raised.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG) stock was 248.53 USD (+2.70% on the day), with market capitalisation 48.1 bn USD, P/E 25.1 on diluted EPS of 9.90 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.34%, beta 1.00, 52-week range 214.26–267.71 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2026): revenue of 8.2 bn USD (+5.1% YoY), net income of 570.0 m USD (+21.3% YoY), diluted EPS 2.90 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
48.1 bn USD
shares as of 03 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
25.1
Diluted EPS TTM 9.90 · TTM to 31 Oct 2025
E/P (TTM)
3.98%
TTM to 31 Oct 2025
Dividend yield
1.34%
DPS 12m 3.32
Beta (2y)
1.00
Volatility (1y) 30%
52-week range
214.26267.71

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
74.8
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
213.71 – 246.36
above the upper band · %B 1.07 · band width 14.2%
SMA 50 / 200
225.39 / 237.43
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
5.03 / 2.89
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+11.5%−1.1%+12.6 pp—
3 months−2.6%−0.5%−2.2 pp—
6 months−1.5%+4.4%−5.9 pp—
Year to date+11.6%+12.3%−0.7 pp—
1 year+1.5%+13.5%−12.0 pp+34.8%
3 years+58.0%+76.4%−18.4 pp+78.8%
5 years+62.4%+63.7%−1.3 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−20.0%
30 Apr 2026 → 17 Sept 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−43.6%
03 Jan 2022 → 20 Oct 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+10.2%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q1 2026 · 31 Oct 2025

Revenue
8.2 bn USD
+5.1% YoY
Net income
570.0 m USD
+21.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
2.90
+23.9% YoY
net / operating
7.0% / 9.4%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ2 '24Q3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26
Revenue6.7 bn7.3 bn7.9 bn7.8 bn6.9 bn7.6 bn8.5 bn8.2 bn
Cost of revenue4.6 bn5.1 bn5.5 bn5.4 bn4.8 bn5.3 bn5.8 bn5.7 bn
Gross profit2.0 bn2.2 bn2.5 bn2.3 bn2.0 bn2.4 bn2.7 bn2.5 bn
SG&A1.5 bn1.5 bn1.6 bn1.6 bn1.5 bn1.6 bn1.7 bn1.6 bn
Operating income477.0 m625.0 m811.0 m665.0 m410.0 m606.0 m925.0 m771.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation83.0 m85.0 m87.0 m90.0 m92.0 m94.0 m97.0 m94.0 m
Pre-tax income433.0 m581.0 m759.0 m624.0 m370.0 m557.0 m872.0 m712.0 m
Income tax111.0 m138.0 m308.0 m154.0 m94.0 m147.0 m172.0 m142.0 m
Net income322.0 m443.0 m451.0 m470.0 m276.0 m410.0 m700.0 m570.0 m
Diluted EPS1.582.182.23 ≈2.341.382.073.55 ≈2.90
Operating cash flow306.0 m ≈644.0 m ≈366.0 m345.0 m340.0 m ≈682.0 m ≈541.0 m430.0 m
Capex101.0 m ≈71.0 m ≈109.0 m77.0 m81.0 m ≈77.0 m ≈70.0 m118.0 m
Dividends paid153.0 m ≈160.0 m ≈319.0 m0158.0 m ≈166.0 m ≈165.0 m164.0 m
Share repurchases142.0 m ≈171.0 m ≈213.0 m256.0 m252.0 m ≈251.0 m ≈189.0 m208.0 m

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 83 percentile of its own 6-quarter history (min 21.2, median 23.8, max 26.1; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2022202320242025
Revenue28.6 bn29.7 bn29.6 bn30.8 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable+4.1%−0.3%+3.8%
Net income2.1 bn1.9 bn1.7 bn1.9 bn
Net income YoYunavailable−11.0%−8.2%+7.0%
Diluted EPS9.699.128.539.32
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable−5.9%−6.5%+9.3%
net %7.4%6.4%5.9%6.0%
Free cash flow859.0 m2.3 bn1.5 bn1.6 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Jul 2025

Cash
674.0 m USD
Financial debt
4.2 bn USD
Net debt
3.5 bn USD
Equity
5.8 bn USD
Total assets
17.7 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.71x
Current ratio
1.68x
ROE
32.4%
ROA
10.8%
FCF margin
5.2%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
29.7 bn
2024
29.6 bn
2025
30.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Cost of revenue
2023
20.7 bn
2024
20.6 bn
2025
21.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Gross profit
2023
9.0 bn
2024
9.1 bn
2025
9.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

SG&A
2023
5.9 bn
2024
6.0 bn
2025
6.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Operating income
2023
2.7 bn
2024
2.7 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
321.0 m
2024
335.0 m
2025
373.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

EBITDA
2023
3.0 bn ≈
2024
3.0 bn ≈
2025
3.0 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025derived

Interest expense
2023
184.0 m
2024
179.0 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Sept 2024verified

Pre-tax income
2023
2.5 bn
2024
2.5 bn
2025
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Income tax
2023
575.0 m
2024
729.0 m
2025
567.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Net income
2023
1.9 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Diluted EPS
2023
9.12
2024
8.53
2025
9.32

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
207.2 m
2024
203.5 m
2025
199.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Dividend per share
2023
4.16
2024
3.12
2025
3.28

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
601.0 m
2024
571.0 m
2025
674.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Receivables
2023
3.6 bn
2024
3.6 bn
2025
4.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Inventories
2023
3.9 bn
2024
4.2 bn
2025
4.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Current assets
2023
9.1 bn
2024
9.4 bn
2025
10.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
1.6 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Goodwill
2023
2.2 bn
2024
2.4 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
783.0 m
2024
753.0 m
2025
726.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Total assets
2023
16.0 bn
2024
16.6 bn
2025
17.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Accounts payable
2023
3.4 bn
2024
3.4 bn
2025
3.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Short-term debt
2023
55.0 m
2024
150.0 m
2025
400.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Long-term debt
2023
3.7 bn
2024
3.8 bn
2025
3.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Current liabilities
2023
5.4 bn
2024
5.2 bn
2025
6.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Total liabilities
2023
11.0 bn
2024
11.0 bn
2025
11.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Equity
2023
5.0 bn †
2024
5.6 bn †
2025
5.8 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
2.7 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Capex
2023
441.0 m
2024
372.0 m
2025
305.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Free cash flow
2023
2.3 bn ≈
2024
1.5 bn ≈
2025
1.6 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-1.1 bn
2024
-601.0 m
2025
-543.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-1.8 bn
2024
-1.3 bn
2025
-1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Dividends paid
2023
711.0 m
2024
784.0 m
2025
489.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Share repurchases
2023
908.0 m
2024
634.0 m
2025
948.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Sept 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
3.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
2.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
-1.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
7.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-4.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
9.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-1.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
6.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
30.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025
EBITDA margin
9.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025
EBIT margin
8.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025
Net margin
6.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025
FCF margin
5.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025

Returns

ROE
32.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
10.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
19.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
21.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
33.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025
Payout ratio (FCF)
39.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025

Balance sheet

Net debt
4.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
1.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
2.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025
Capital expenditure
346.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025
Free cash flow
1.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025
FCF conversion
84.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025
Cash conversion
64.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
50 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
86 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
69 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
67 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
48.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
52.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
24.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025
P/E (TTM)
25.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025
Earnings yield
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025
P/B
7.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
1.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
17.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
19.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
1.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
29.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
1.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025
Shareholder yield (distributions)
3.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 44 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])

Closing price

248.53 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 48.1 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
48.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
25.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025
P/B
7.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
17.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
32.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
6.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
3.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Oct 2025

Coverage and freshness

35/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 03 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 10 Aug 2026
verified 446derived 32

Score by group

  • Balance sheet36
  • Growth10
  • Quality71
  • Returns68
  • Valuation37

Estimated value range

Low
181.74
USD per share
Mid
188.28
USD per share
High
199.66
USD per share
Price: 248.53 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -24.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -32.0% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 43.10 – 271.73 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA181.74 – 199.66 (Mid 188.28)
    3 companies used · median multiple 13.2x · quartiles 12.8x – 13.9x
    RS, TEL, WCC
  • Peers: P/E195.88 – 271.73 (Mid 203.85)
    5 companies used · median multiple 20.6x · quartiles 19.8x – 27.5x
    GWW, RS, SNX, TEL, WCC
  • Dividend discount (DDM)43.10 – 57.97 (Mid 49.44)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Wholesale — durable goods (SIC 50xx)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 44/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality19.8%80 (vs peers)11%
Net margin · Quality6.3%50 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality84.2%77 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth2.5%21 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-1.3%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet1.4x20 (vs peers)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.7x77 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation25.1x50 (vs peers)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation17.0x20 (vs peers)11%
FCF yield · Valuation3.4%43 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns3.2%46 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns39.6%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet36/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth10/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality71/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns68/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation37/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. /DE/ (FERG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 30.8 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 3.8%; net margin 6.3%; ROE 32.8%; net debt/EBITDA 1.4x.

The estimated value range is 181.74–199.66 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 188.28 USD, the price of 248.53 USD leaves a potential of -24.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -32.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 44/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 19.8%
  • FCF conversion: 84.2%
  • Current ratio: 1.7x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 39.6%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 2.5%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -1.3%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 1.4x
  • EV/EBITDA: 17.0x
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage.

Versus the vertical median

Wholesale — durable goods (SIC 50xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies

Only companies with a capitalisation between 5.5 bn and 351.8 bn (within 8× of the company's); 52 of the vertical were left out.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
25.1x
vertical median 24.0x
at median
EV/EBITDA
17.0x
vertical median 13.2x
above median (+28.5%)
P/S
1.5x
vertical median 1.0x
above median (+55.5%)
P/B
7.8x
vertical median 3.3x
above median (+132.7%)
ROE
32.8%
vertical median 15.2%
above median (+116.5%)
Net margin
6.3%
vertical median 4.7%
above median (+33.4%)
EBIT margin
8.7%
vertical median 8.8%
at median
Revenue YoY
3.8%
vertical median 5.7%
below median (−33.6%)
Net debt/EBITDA
1.4x
vertical median 0.8x
above median (+87.4%)
Dividend yield
1.3%
vertical median 1.0%
above median (+38.0%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc.69.7 bn32.754.7%11.2%+4.5%+57% / +89%
TELTe Connectivity PLC63.8 bn27.518.5%12.6%+8.9%−3% / +68%
FERGFerguson Enterprises Inc.48.1 bn25.132.8%6.3%+3.8%+2% / +58%
RSReliance, Inc.22.5 bn20.614.7%6.4%+3.3%+58% / +61%
SNXTd Synnex Corporation18.4 bn14.014.9%1.8%+6.9%+51% / +134%
GPCGenuine Parts Co17.4 bn481.80.7%0.1%+3.5%−3% / −5%
WCCWESCO International, Inc.15.4 bn19.815.4%3.0%+7.8%+18% / +103%

1- and 3-year price returns: for FERG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
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Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
147.08
Total return -40% · Per year -40%
260.28
Total return 6% · Per year 6%
392.41
Total return 60% · Per year 60%
3 years
137.06
Total return -42% · Per year -17%
273.46
Total return 14% · Per year 5%
453.47
Total return 88% · Per year 23%
5 years
127.73
Total return -44% · Per year -11%
287.30
Total return 23% · Per year 4%
524.04
Total return 121% · Per year 17%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 68.36
  • Net margin± 47.86
  • Annual revenue growth± 40.05
  • Annual dilution± 4.02

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. is North America's largest value-added distributor of water and air solutions, serving a construction market of 340 billion USD 1. In fiscal 2025 net sales reached 30.8 billion USD, up 3.8% 1. In the second quarter of 2026 sales grew 4.6% and full-year 2026 guidance was raised 23.

SWOT

Strengths

  • National scale, a dense network of branches and distribution centers, and same-day or next-day availability are strengths the company highlights 1.
  • The balance sheet remains solid, with leverage at the level reported in the latest quarter 3.
  • A broad product and service range, from design through project management, supports its position with professional customers 1.

Weaknesses

  • Heavy reliance on the US market, which generates most sales, makes the company sensitive to conditions in one country 1.
  • Operating costs for labor, infrastructure and fleet have at times grown faster than sales 1.
  • The Canadian segment had a weak quarter in 2026, with declining revenue and lower margins 3.

Opportunities

  • Non-residential growth, especially in water infrastructure and large capital projects, could support future growth 3.
  • Consolidating a fragmented market through acquisitions can expand capabilities and geographic reach 13.
  • If the residential market recovers, repair and new construction activity could add further growth 3.

Threats

  • An economic slowdown, high interest rates or a credit crisis could reduce demand and customers' ability to pay 1.
  • Trade tariffs and restrictions could raise product costs and weaken competitiveness 1.
  • Suppliers that integrate vertically into distribution could sell directly to customers, potentially reducing margins 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on the US economyhigh

    Almost all sales come from the United States, so a weaker US economy could directly affect results 1.

  • Slowdown in construction marketshigh

    High interest and mortgage rates could delay residential and non-residential projects and reduce order volumes 1.

  • Product price fluctuationsmedium

    Deflation or inflation in commodities such as plastic, copper and steel could affect margins if prices cannot be passed on in time 1.

  • Acquisition integration riskmedium

    Numerous acquisitions, including FloWorks, could bring integration costs and balance sheet pressure if expected benefits do not materialize 23.

  • Defined benefit pension obligationslow

    Pension plans in Canada and the UK could require additional contributions if investment returns fall or discount rates change 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Ferguson could keep gaining share if strong non-residential demand from large projects persists and the company continues expanding through acquisitions 3.
  • If repair and residential construction recover, the company's broad network could benefit from a rebound in volumes 13.
  • Scale and steady cash generation could allow investment in organic growth and capital returns to shareholders while keeping a solid balance sheet 3.

What would break the thesis

  • If the residential market stays weak and Canada continues to decline, total growth could slow from its recent pace 23.
  • Margin pressure from operating costs and supplier pricing could reduce profitability, especially if cost inflation outpaces price increases 12.
  • Multiple acquisitions could bring integration and leverage risks, and expected benefits could be delayed or not fully realized 3.

What to watch

  • Integration of the FloWorks acquisition and its effect on guidanceQ3 2026
  • Trend in non-residential sales and large project order volumesQ3 2026
  • Recovery of the residential market and repair activity2027
  • Results for the period ending September 30, 2026, reported November 2026Q1 2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Sales are split roughly evenly between residential and non-residential markets, and within these about two-thirds come from repair, maintenance and improvement, with one-third from new construction, based on management estimates 1. The company pursues bolt-on acquisitions; in 2026 it completed five acquisitions in one quarter and signed an agreement for FloWorks 3. It is listed on the NYSE as FERG, and its London secondary listing was cancelled effective July 20, 2026 3.

Ferguson has two reportable segments, the United States and Canada, and the US segment contributed 95% of net sales in each of fiscal years 2023 through 2025 1. It operates under the Ferguson brand in the US and the Wolseley brand in Canada 1.

Market context

The North American construction market in which Ferguson operates is valued at 340 billion USD, with residential and non-residential markets of roughly equal size 13. The market remains fragmented, and the company ranks among the top distributors in most of the end markets it serves 1.

In 2026 non-residential demand, particularly large capital projects, remained strong, while the residential market stayed weak with soft new construction and repair activity 3.

Trends

  • Non-residential growthtailwind

    Commercial, industrial and water infrastructure projects grew, and open order volumes and bidding for large projects stayed healthy, which could support sales if these projects continue 3.

  • Weak residential marketheadwind

    New construction and repair, maintenance and improvement work remained soft, and a lack of recovery could slow growth in the residential segment 3.

  • Consolidation through acquisitionsmixed

    Acquisitions of regional and niche distributors such as FloWorks extend capabilities, but could dilute margins if integration does not go as planned 23.

  • Commodity price pressuremixed

    Products made of plastic, copper and steel are subject to price swings, and deflation or inflation can affect margins depending on how well costs are passed on to customers 1.

Competitive position

The markets Ferguson serves are highly competitive, with small local distributors, mid-size regional distributors, supply houses, retailers, online businesses and manufacturers selling directly 1. Competition could intensify through new entrants or consolidation among rivals, potentially reducing sales and margins 1.

Ferguson argues that its scale, supplier network and branch count let it serve customers better than competitors that operate only locally 1. Pressure also comes from suppliers that vertically integrate and sell directly to customers at lower prices 1.

  • WatscoWSO

    HVAC products distributor active in markets that overlap with Ferguson's climate and comfort segment.

  • Core & MainCNM

    Distributor of water and infrastructure products active in utility and waterworks segments overlapping with Ferguson.

  • Local and regional plumbing distributors

    Numerous small and mid-size local or regional distributors competing for projects and customers in their areas.

  • Online sellers and retailers

    E-commerce platforms and retailers that attract buyers through price and convenience, as noted in the company's risk factors.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-07-31 · SEC / Ferguson Enterprises Inc. · 26 Sept 2025
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Ferguson Enterprises Inc. · 10 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Ferguson Enterprises Inc. · 10 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.