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olivLaw · US equity research

Genuine Parts Company GPC

Wholesale-Motor Vehicle Supplies & New Parts · SIC 5013 · Vertical: Wholesale — durable goods (SIC 50xx)

126.40USD+1.71% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Genuine Parts Company (GPC) is a global provider of automotive and industrial replacement parts, with net sales of 24.3 billion USD in fiscal 2025. The company is separating into two listed companies, Global Automotive and Global Industrial, with completion targeted for the first quarter of 2027. Results for the third quarter of 2026 show sales growth of 4.2% and a narrowed adjusted EPS outlook of 7.50 to 7.75 USD.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Genuine Parts Company (GPC) stock was 126.40 USD (+1.71% on the day), with market capitalisation 17.4 bn USD, P/E 481.8 on diluted EPS of 0.26 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.34%, beta 0.60, 52-week range 92.47–149.26 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 6.5 bn USD (+4.2% YoY), net income of 224.4 m USD (−0.8% YoY), diluted EPS 1.62 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
17.4 bn USD
shares as of 16 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
481.8
Diluted EPS TTM 0.26 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
0.21%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
3.34%
DPS 12m 4.22
Beta (2y)
0.60
Volatility (1y) 34%
52-week range
92.47149.26

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
50.3
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
118.49 – 134.42
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.50 · band width 12.6%
SMA 50 / 200
129.46 / 119.81
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-1.53 / -1.60
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+0.1%−1.1%+1.2 pp—
3 months−3.7%−0.5%−3.3 pp—
6 months+19.8%+4.4%+15.4 pp—
Year to date+2.8%+12.3%−9.5 pp—
1 year+3.0%+13.5%−10.5 pp+34.8%
3 years−5.7%+76.4%−82.1 pp+78.8%
5 years−7.3%+63.7%−71.0 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−38.0%
11 Feb 2026 → 19 May 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−50.6%
02 Dec 2022 → 19 May 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−1.5%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
6.5 bn USD
+4.2% YoY
Net income
224.4 m USD
−0.8% YoY
Diluted EPS
1.62
0.0% YoY
net / operating
3.4% / unavailable

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue5.8 bn5.9 bn6.2 bn6.3 bn6.0 bn6.3 bn6.5 bn6.5 bn
Cost of revenue3.7 bn3.7 bn3.8 bn3.9 bn3.9 bn3.9 bn4.1 bn4.0 bn
Gross profit2.1 bn2.2 bn2.3 bn2.3 bn2.1 bn2.3 bn2.5 bn2.5 bn
SG&A1.7 bn1.7 bn1.8 bn1.8 bn1.9 bn1.9 bn1.9 bn1.9 bn
Depreciation & amortisation112.1 m115.4 m123.0 m127.5 m172.1 m131.0 m134.7 m137.5 m
Interest expense29.4 m37.2 m40.2 m40.3 m45.7 m44.0 m——
Pre-tax income167.0 m251.6 m338.6 m291.7 m-829.7 m245.4 m293.8 m278.6 m
Income tax33.9 m57.2 m83.7 m65.5 m-220.2 m56.9 m66.3 m54.2 m
Net income133.1 m194.4 m254.9 m226.2 m-609.5 m188.5 m227.6 m224.4 m
Diluted EPS0.96 ≈1.401.831.62-4.38 ≈1.371.651.62
Operating cash flow155.0 m-40.8 m209.9 m ≈341.6 m ≈380.1 m63.9 m400.2 m ≈352.5 m ≈
Capex181.7 m119.8 m129.0 m ≈101.6 m ≈119.4 m97.6 m107.8 m ≈109.1 m ≈
Dividends paid143.5 m134.4 m143.0 m ≈143.3 m ≈143.3 m141.7 m146.2 m ≈146.5 m ≈
Share repurchases37.5 m00 ≈0 ≈0———

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 41-quarter history (min 14.8, median 20.2, max 479.3; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue16.8 bn17.5 bn16.5 bn18.9 bn22.1 bn23.1 bn23.5 bn24.3 bn
Revenue YoY+3.2%+4.1%−5.6%+14.1%+17.1%+4.5%+1.7%+3.5%
Net income810.5 m621.1 m-29.1 m898.8 m1.2 bn1.3 bn904.1 m65.9 m
Net income YoY+31.4%−23.4%−104.7%unavailable+31.6%+11.3%−31.3%−92.7%
Diluted EPS5.504.24-0.206.238.319.336.470.47
Diluted EPS YoY+31.6%−22.9%−104.7%unavailable+33.4%+12.3%−30.7%−92.7%
net %4.8%3.5%-0.2%4.8%5.4%5.7%3.8%0.3%
Free cash flow918.7 m614.1 munavailable992.1 m1.1 bn922.9 m683.9 m420.9 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
477.2 m USD
Financial debt
4.4 bn USD
Net debt
4.0 bn USD
Equity
4.4 bn USD
Total assets
20.8 bn USD
Debt / equity
1.00x
Current ratio
1.08x
ROE
1.5%
ROA
0.3%
FCF margin
1.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
23.1 bn
2024
23.5 bn
2025
24.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
14.8 bn
2024
15.0 bn
2025
15.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
8.3 bn
2024
8.5 bn
2025
8.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
6.2 bn
2024
6.6 bn
2025
7.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
350.5 m
2024
408.0 m
2025
538.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
64.5 m
2024
96.8 m
2025
163.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
52.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
425.8 m
2024
271.9 m
2025
-13.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
1.3 bn
2024
904.1 m
2025
65.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
9.33
2024
6.47
2025
0.47

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
141.0 m
2024
139.7 m
2025
139.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
3.80
2024
4.00
2025
4.12

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
1.1 bn
2024
480.0 m
2025
477.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
4.7 bn
2024
5.5 bn
2025
6.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
9.6 bn
2024
9.9 bn
2025
10.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
1.6 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
2.7 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
1.8 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
18.0 bn
2024
19.3 bn
2025
20.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
355.3 m
2024
41.7 m
2025
943.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
3.6 bn
2024
3.7 bn
2025
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
7.8 bn
2024
8.5 bn
2025
9.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
4.4 bn
2024
4.4 bn
2025
4.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
890.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
512.7 m
2024
567.3 m
2025
469.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
922.9 m ≈
2024
683.9 m ≈
2025
420.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-705.8 m
2024
-1.5 bn
2025
-711.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-292.2 m
2024
-333.9 m
2025
-209.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
526.7 m
2024
554.9 m
2025
563.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
261.5 m
2024
150.0 m
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
3.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
3.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
8.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income growth (YoY)
-92.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-61.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-92.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-61.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
-38.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
37.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
unavailable
input data missing
Net margin
0.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
0.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
0.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
1,607.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
75.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
4.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
1.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
433.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
762.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
2,457.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
141 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
17.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
21.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
561.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
481.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
0.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
3.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
0.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
22.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
4.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 32 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40

Closing price

126.40 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 17.4 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
17.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
481.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
3.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
0.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
0.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
3.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 16 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 20 Oct 2026
verified 2887derived 241

Score by group

  • Balance sheet35
  • Valuation24
  • Quality50
  • Growth13
  • Returns54

Estimated value range

Low
54.14
USD per share
Mid
62.10
USD per share
High
72.81
USD per share
Price: 126.40 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -50.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -103.5% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 3 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.25 – 124.25 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)64.71 – 124.25 (Mid 86.92)
    WACC 8.4% · starting FCFF 905.9 m USD · terminal value share of EV 76%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 16.5%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E5.25 – 7.05 (Mid 6.00)
    6 companies used · median multiple 22.9x · quartiles 20.0x – 26.9x
    FERG, GWW, RS, SNX, TEL, WCC
  • Dividend discount (DDM)54.14 – 72.81 (Mid 62.10)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Wholesale — durable goods (SIC 50xx)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 32/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality0.1%0 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Quality2,457.5%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth3.2%27 (on a fixed band)13%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-61.6%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.2x35 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation481.8x0 (vs peers)17%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation4.4%55 (on a fixed band)13%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns3.3%47 (on a fixed band)10%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns75.7%63 (on a fixed band)7%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial35/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth13/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality50/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns54/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation24/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

GENUINE PARTS CO (GPC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 24.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 3.5%; net margin 0.1%; ROE 0.7%.

The estimated value range is 54.14–72.81 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 62.10 USD, the price of 126.40 USD leaves a potential of -50.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -103.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 32/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 2,457.5%

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: 0.1%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 3.2%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -61.6%
  • P/E (TTM): 481.8x
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Wholesale — durable goods (SIC 50xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies

Only companies with a capitalisation between 2.2 bn and 141.1 bn (within 8× of the company's); 52 of the vertical were left out.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
481.8x
vertical median 22.9x
above median (+2,007.9%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 13.9x
P/S
0.7x
vertical median 1.4x
below median (−51.5%)
P/B
3.7x
vertical median 3.9x
at median
ROE
0.7%
vertical median 16.9%
below median (−96.1%)
Net margin
0.1%
vertical median 6.3%
below median (−98.1%)
EBIT margin
—
vertical median 8.8%
Revenue YoY
3.5%
vertical median 5.7%
below median (−39.5%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.9x
Dividend yield
3.3%
vertical median 1.0%
above median (+244.7%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc.69.7 bn32.754.7%11.2%+4.5%+57% / +89%
TELTe Connectivity PLC63.8 bn27.518.5%12.6%+8.9%−3% / +68%
FERGFerguson Enterprises Inc.48.1 bn25.132.8%6.3%+3.8%−1% / +45%
RSReliance, Inc.22.5 bn20.614.7%6.4%+3.3%+58% / +61%
SNXTd Synnex Corporation18.4 bn14.014.9%1.8%+6.9%+51% / +134%
GPCGenuine Parts Co17.4 bn481.80.7%0.1%+3.5%+3% / −6%
WCCWESCO International, Inc.15.4 bn19.815.4%3.0%+7.8%+18% / +103%

1- and 3-year price returns: for GPC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
63.30
Total return -50% · Per year -50%
111.98
Total return -11% · Per year -11%
168.77
Total return 34% · Per year 34%
3 years
59.86
Total return -52% · Per year -22%
119.31
Total return -5% · Per year -2%
197.66
Total return 57% · Per year 16%
5 years
56.61
Total return -55% · Per year -15%
127.12
Total return 2% · Per year 0%
231.49
Total return 84% · Per year 13%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 29.83
  • Net margin± 20.88
  • Annual revenue growth± 17.35
  • Annual dilution± 1.75

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Genuine Parts Company (GPC) is a global provider of automotive and industrial replacement parts, with net sales of 24.3 billion USD in fiscal 2025 1. The company is separating into two listed companies, Global Automotive and Global Industrial, with completion targeted for the first quarter of 2027 13. Results for the third quarter of 2026 show sales growth of 4.2% and a narrowed adjusted EPS outlook of 7.50 to 7.75 USD 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The NAPA brand, the wide distribution network and sourcing capacity are competitive advantages the company emphasizes 1.
  • The Industrial segment has the highest EBITDA margin in the group and a diversified customer base 1.
  • The company has a long operating history and a leading global position in replacement parts distribution 1.

Weaknesses

  • Net income in fiscal 2025 was heavily affected by discrete charges such as the pension settlement and credit losses 1.
  • The automotive segments carry lower EBITDA margins than the industrial segment 1.
  • Technology and supply chain investments raise operating expenses and borrowing 1.

Opportunities

  • Two independent listed companies could allow each to focus more sharply on its own strategy 13.
  • Electric and hybrid vehicles open new parts and service opportunities, according to the company 1.
  • Acquisitions of independent stores and expansion in Canada could strengthen presence in key markets 1.

Threats

  • Rising competition and digital distribution could pressure prices and volumes 1.
  • Geopolitical tensions and instability in the Middle East could disrupt supply chains and costs 12.
  • The failure of a key supplier or customer could hurt collections and sales 1.

Risks

  • Weaker demandmedium

    If miles driven or industrial activity decline, demand for parts could slow 1.

  • Separation not completedhigh

    The separation is not assured on the current terms or timetable and could create additional costs 13.

  • Supplier exposurehigh

    The 2025 bankruptcy of a key supplier shows how dependence on financially weak partners can affect the supply chain 1.

  • Tariffs and trademedium

    Changes in tariff policy could raise purchase costs and weigh on gross margin 12.

  • Currency risklow

    Operations in Europe and Australasia expose the company to currency swings that can affect reported results 13.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the separation is completed on schedule, each company could have a clearer strategy and capital structure, and sales grew in the third quarter of 2026 3.
  • The extensive location network, the NAPA brand and distribution capacity offer advantages that smaller rivals would find hard to replicate quickly 1.
  • The Industrial segment shows growth and an improving EBITDA margin, which could support cash flow 3.

What would break the thesis

  • Net income in fiscal 2025 fell sharply on discrete charges, and the adjusted EPS outlook was narrowed toward the upper part of its range 13.
  • Tariff pressures, inflation and freight costs could keep eroding margins in the automotive segments 12.
  • The separation carries costs and execution risk, and the anticipated benefits are not assured 1.

What to watch

  • Completion of the separation into Global Automotive and Global IndustrialQ1 2027
  • Adjusted diluted EPS outlook for 2026 against the narrowed range2026 annual results
  • Effect of tariffs and fuel costs on gross marginQ4 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

The segment structure includes North America Automotive, about 39% of GPC net sales, and International Automotive, about 24%, both within the Automotive Parts Group 1. The Industrial segment, about 37% of sales, distributes replacement parts and solutions under the Motion brand 1. The move to three reportable segments took effect December 31, 2025 and did not change consolidated net sales 1.

Market context

The company states that the automotive aftermarket is estimated at over 200 billion USD, fragmented and dominated by small local competitors 1. The industrial distribution market is estimated at over 150 billion USD 1. Demand is supported by industrial activity and automation, though U.S. manufacturing PMI remained in contraction at the end of 2025 1.

Demand for auto parts depends on miles driven, the age of the vehicle fleet and fuel prices, and inflation and geopolitical tensions can defer maintenance 12. The Middle East conflict raised fuel and freight costs, mainly in the International segment, according to the third quarter 2026 report 2.

Trends

  • Separation into two companiesmixed

    The planned split of the automotive and industrial businesses, targeted for the first quarter of 2027, could unlock value if completed as planned, but it remains subject to approvals and regulatory conditions 13.

  • Tariffsheadwind

    Tariffs on goods from China, Canada and Mexico have raised product costs and customer prices, affecting gross margin and SG&A 12.

  • Pricing and sourcingtailwind

    Strategic pricing and sourcing initiatives helped gross margin improve in fiscal 2025 and supported sales growth 1.

  • Fuel and freight costsheadwind

    Higher fuel and freight prices could reduce customer demand and pressure margins, particularly in Europe and Australasia 2.

Competitive position

In North American automotive, the main competitors named are AutoZone, O'Reilly Auto Parts, Advance Auto Parts and LKQ, while in Europe and Australasia LKQ and Bapcor compete 1. In industrial distribution, the main competitor is Applied Industrial Technologies, alongside Fastenal and W.W. Grainger 1.

The company says its advantages come from broad product availability, quality service, brand recognition and competitive pricing 1. It also acknowledges that digital competition and consolidation among rivals are risks 1.

  • AutoZoneAZO

    Specialty auto parts chain named as a principal competitor in North America.

  • O'Reilly Auto PartsORLY

    Auto parts distributor with a strong North American presence, named as a principal rival.

  • LKQ CorporationLKQ

    Active competitor in both North America and Europe, where it has a solid presence.

  • Applied Industrial TechnologiesAIT

    Principal competitor in industrial distribution, according to the company.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 12 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 20 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

  • Quarterly report20 Oct 2026
  • Current report20 Oct 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report09 Sept 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report11 Aug 2026
    Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report21 Jul 2026
  • Current report21 Jul 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report28 Apr 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Shareholder vote · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report21 Apr 2026
  • Current report21 Apr 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report20 Mar 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Genuine Parts Company · 20 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Genuine Parts Company · 20 Oct 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Genuine Parts Company · 20 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.