olivLaw · US equity research
Flutter Entertainment plc FLUT
Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. · SIC 7370 · Vertical: Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. (SIC 7370)
Flutter Entertainment is the world's leading online sports betting and iGaming operator by revenue, with FanDuel in the U.S. and strong local brands in Europe, Australia and Brazil. For the second quarter of 2026 it reported a net loss of $296 million despite higher revenue, so its U.S. customer growth, its prediction markets push and the integration of its acquisitions now matter most.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT) stock was 81.79 USD (−2.33% on the day), with market capitalisation 14.2 bn USD, beta 0.93, 52-week range 74.26–234.45 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 3.9 bn USD (+2.1% YoY), net income of -1.1 bn USD, diluted EPS -4.90 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 50.2
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 73.68 – 85.52
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.68 · band width 14.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 85.98 / 105.09
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.29 / -1.46
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +8.0% | −1.1% | +9.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −12.0% | −0.5% | −11.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −17.5% | +4.4% | −21.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | −62.0% | +12.3% | −74.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −63.2% | +13.5% | −76.7 pp | −18.8% |
| 3 years | −52.1% | +76.4% | −128.5 pp | +5.6% |
| 5 years | −51.7% | +63.7% | −115.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.8 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.2 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.3 bn | 3.9 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.4 bn |
| Gross profit | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn |
| Research & development | 201.0 m | 215.0 m | 256.0 m | 275.0 m | 245.0 m | 259.0 m | 300.0 m | 350.0 m |
| Operating income | 279.0 m | 223.0 m | 389.0 m | -834.0 m | 258.0 m | 79.0 m | -144.0 m | -1.2 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 270.0 m | 294.0 m | 369.0 m ≈ | 419.0 m ≈ | 435.0 m | 416.0 m | 399.0 m ≈ | 405.0 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 109.0 m | 103.0 m | 128.0 m | 167.0 m | 178.0 m | 164.0 m | 171.0 m | 169.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | -42.0 m | 354.0 m | 205.0 m | -834.0 m | 154.0 m | 234.0 m | -299.0 m | -1.2 bn |
| Income tax | -198.0 m | 19.0 m | 168.0 m | -45.0 m | 144.0 m | 25.0 m | -3.0 m | -95.0 m |
| Net income | 156.0 m | 335.0 m | 37.0 m | -789.0 m | 10.0 m | 209.0 m | -296.0 m | -1.1 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 0.84 ≈ | 1.57 | 0.59 | -3.91 | 0.05 ≈ | 1.23 | -1.57 | -4.90 |
| Operating cash flow | 652.0 m | 188.0 m | 359.0 m ≈ | 209.0 m ≈ | 428.0 m | 330.0 m | 363.0 m ≈ | 211.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 57.0 m | 19.0 m | 37.0 m ≈ | 13.0 m ≈ | 36.0 m | 25.0 m | 14.0 m ≈ | 20.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 219.0 m | 244.0 m | 339.0 m ≈ | 261.0 m ≈ | 279.0 m | 135.0 m | 129.0 m ≈ | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.5 bn | 9.5 bn | 11.8 bn | 14.0 bn | 16.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +13.6% | +54.6% | +24.6% | unavailable | +24.6% | +19.2% | +16.6% |
| Net income | 136.1 m | 259.2 m | -102.5 m | 62.8 m | -370.0 m | -1.2 bn | 162.0 m | -407.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +90.4% | −139.5% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −351.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.70 | 1.27 | -0.49 | 0.22 | -2.44 | -6.89 | 0.24 | -1.75 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +81.4% | −138.6% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −829.2% |
| net % | 11.8% | 19.8% | -5.0% | 2.5% | -3.9% | -10.3% | 1.2% | -2.5% |
| Free cash flow | 343.1 m | 483.6 m | 525.9 m | 643.1 m | 1.0 bn | 778.0 m | 1.5 bn | 1.1 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.8 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 12.3 bn USD
- Net debt
- 10.4 bn USD
- Equity
- 9.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 29.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.32x
- Current ratio
- 0.95x
- ROE
- -4.3%
- ROA
- -1.5%
- FCF margin
- 6.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2018 | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 2.5 bn | 9.5 bn | 11.8 bn | 14.0 bn | 16.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 459.2 m | 693.1 m | 4.8 bn | 6.2 bn | 7.3 bn | 9.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 4.7 bn | 5.6 bn | 6.7 bn | 7.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 40.0 m | 55.1 m | 552.0 m | 765.0 m | 820.0 m | 991.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 260.1 m | 264.2 m | -88.0 m | -549.0 m | 869.0 m | 36.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 282.8 m | 438.6 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 542.9 m ≈ | 702.8 m ≈ | 987.0 m ≈ | 736.0 m ≈ | 2.0 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 371.1 m | 202.5 m | 216.0 m | 424.0 m | 480.0 m | 576.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -109.9 m | 61.7 m | -295.0 m | -1.1 bn | 16.0 m | -121.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -988.0 k | -197.0 k | 75.0 m | 120.0 m | -146.0 m | 286.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -102.5 m | 62.8 m | -370.0 m | -1.2 bn | 162.0 m | -407.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.49 | 0.22 | -2.44 | -6.89 | 0.24 | -1.75 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 208.3 m | 284.5 m | 177.0 m | 177.0 m | 180.0 m | 177.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2018 | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 721.1 m | 621.9 m | 966.0 m | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 136.3 m | 111.2 m | — | 90.0 m | 98.0 m | 190.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.0 bn | 977.6 m | — | 4.0 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 85.2 m | 139.2 m | — | 471.0 m | 493.0 m | 630.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 5.3 bn | 5.3 bn | 13.2 bn | 13.7 bn | 13.4 bn | 15.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 4.7 bn | 4.6 bn | — | 5.9 bn | 5.4 bn | 7.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 11.3 bn | 11.3 bn | — | 24.6 bn | 24.5 bn | 29.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | — | — | 240.0 m | 266.0 m | 386.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 35.8 m | 35.8 m | — | 51.0 m | 53.0 m | 109.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 5.4 bn | 4.9 bn | — | 7.0 bn | 6.7 bn | 12.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | — | 4.5 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 7.1 bn | 6.8 bn | — | 13.3 bn | 13.2 bn | 19.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 4.2 bn | 4.5 bn | 11.2 bn | 10.2 bn | 9.5 bn | 9.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 147.9 m | 147.9 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2020verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2018 | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 559.8 m | 670.6 m | 1.2 bn | 937.0 m | 1.6 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 34.0 m | 27.5 m | 122.0 m | 159.0 m | 144.0 m | 105.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 525.9 m ≈ | 643.1 m ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 778.0 m ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.9 bn | -139.8 m | -2.5 bn | -602.0 m | -811.0 m | -3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 1.6 bn | -636.9 m | 1.8 bn | -113.0 m | -469.0 m | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 3.0 m | 212.0 m | 219.0 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 53 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 14.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation76
- Returns97
- Quality21
- Balance sheet3
- Growth78
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 17.49 – 701.36 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)165.22 – 357.55 (Mid 231.58)WACC 7.3% · starting FCFF 1.8 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 80%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -15.1%
- Peers: EV/Sales17.49 – 701.36 (Mid 138.74)13 companies used · median multiple 2.0x · quartiles 0.8x – 7.7xAPP, BMBL, DOCN, GOOGL, HCAT, LGCL, MTCH, NIQ, RXT, SIFY, SNAP, TEAD, WB
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · insufficient data
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 53/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | 41.6% | 4 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | -5.8% | 33 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF margin · Quality | 7.2% | 29 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 20.1% | 80 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | 16.6% | 74 (vs peers) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 16.1x | 0 (vs peers) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 7 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | 1.4x | 57 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 8.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.8% | 97 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet3/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Growth78/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality21/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns97/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Valuation76/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
Memo
Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 16.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 16.6%; net margin -7.1%; ROE -14.3%; net debt/EBITDA 16.1x.
The estimated value range is 91.35–529.46 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 185.16 USD, the price of 81.79 USD leaves a potential of 126.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 55.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 53/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 20.1%
- Revenue growth (YoY): 16.6%
- FCF yield: 8.7%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 3.8%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Gross margin: 41.6%
- FCF margin: 7.2%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 16.1x
- Current ratio: 0.9x
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. (SIC 7370) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGLAlphabet Inc. | 3,552.1 bn | 15.1 | 44.3% | 50.0% | +15.1% | −10% / +118% |
| APPAppLovin Corporation | 90.0 bn | 18.3 | 210.1% | 65.9% | +70.0% | −55% / +625% |
| FLUTFlutter Entertainment plc | 14.2 bn | — | -14.3% | -7.1% | +16.6% | −63% / −52% |
| SNAPSnap Inc | 10.2 bn | — | -15.6% | -4.9% | +10.6% | −23% / −57% |
| DOCNDigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. | 9.9 bn | 281.3 | 5.1% | 3.1% | +15.5% | +89% / +184% |
| MTCHMatch Group, Inc. | 9.1 bn | 13.7 | — | 20.7% | +0.2% | +21% / +24% |
| NIQNIQ Global Intelligence plc | 6.0 bn | — | -65.3% | -8.0% | +5.7% | +29% / unavailable |
| SIFYSify Technologies Ltd | 5.8 bn | — | -4.1% | -2.0% | +9.0% | +20% / +53% |
| WIXWix.com Ltd. | 4.4 bn | 91.5 | — | 2.5% | +13.2% | −16% / −21% |
| DVDoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. | 2.1 bn | 34.0 | 5.8% | 8.2% | +13.9% | +29% / −59% |
| BZKanzhun Limited | 1.7 bn | 41.6 | 16.0% | 33.1% | +17.3% | −21% / +6% |
| WBWeibo Corporation | 1.6 bn | 3.8 | 12.1% | 25.6% | +0.1% | −35% / −36% |
| HSTMHealthstream Inc | 949.7 m | 45.4 | 6.0% | 6.6% | +4.3% | +29% / +30% |
| NXDRNextdoor Holdings, Inc | 934.4 m | — | -7.2% | -11.1% | +4.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| CEVACeva, Inc. | 788.9 m | — | -3.6% | -9.5% | +2.5% | +30% / +29% |
| BMBLBumble Inc. | 718.8 m | — | -85.9% | -61.8% | −9.9% | +69% / −57% |
| RXTRackspace Technology, Inc. | 716.2 m | — | — | -5.9% | −1.9% | +165% / +123% |
| HUYAHUYA Inc. | 470.7 m | — | -1.9% | -1.7% | +11.6% | −27% / −38% |
| BLNDBlend Labs, Inc. | 302.7 m | — | — | -3.3% | +6.8% | −59% / +1% |
| HCATHealth Catalyst, Inc. | 119.7 m | — | -118.1% | -90.6% | +1.5% | −47% / −78% |
| JFJ & Friends Holdings Ltd | 68.4 m | — | — | -82.9% | −66.8% | −3% / −17% |
| GOAIEva Live Inc | 31.8 m | — | -58.5% | -39.3% | +82.6% | unavailable / unavailable |
| HOLOMicroCloud Hologram Inc. | 27.2 m | — | -2.3% | -12.4% | +38.6% | −66% / −100% |
| TEADTeads Holding Co. | 27.0 m | — | -196.2% | -43.3% | +46.1% | −61% / −93% |
| IPDNProfessional Diversity Network, Inc. | 23.7 m | — | -95.7% | -143.9% | −2.7% | −15% / −91% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FLUT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
In brief
Flutter Entertainment is the world's leading online sports betting and iGaming operator by revenue, with FanDuel in the U.S. and strong local brands in Europe, Australia and Brazil. For the second quarter of 2026 it reported a net loss of $296 million despite higher revenue, so its U.S. customer growth, its prediction markets push and the integration of its acquisitions now matter most 13.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company is the world's largest online sports betting and iGaming operator by revenue, with broad diversification across products and markets and local brands in leading positions in several countries 1.
- Its strong U.S. market share and the benefits of scale let it invest in products and promotions that smaller rivals find hard to match 13.
- Its data platform and marketing models track campaign effectiveness in real time, giving an advantage in customer acquisition and retention 1.
Weaknesses
- Long-term debt rose with acquisitions, and the leverage ratio reached 4.3 in the second quarter of 2026, which limits financial flexibility 13.
- Profitability fell in the second quarter of 2026, with a net loss and lower adjusted EBITDA, partly due to historical tax provisions 3.
- The U.S. customer base shrank after a weak sports season and high churn, which shows reliance on sports results and on retention 3.
Opportunities
- Prediction markets and their national rollout could open a new market for customers who lack access to regulated online sportsbooks 13.
- Legalisation of betting and iGaming in more U.S. states and other countries could add new markets to the portfolio 1.
- The cost programme could free resources for product and customer investment if the savings materialise 3.
Threats
- Intense competition from large operators, prediction market providers and illegal operators could reduce the company's market share 1.
- Gaming tax increases in some European countries could hit margins and cash flow, especially in the United Kingdom 3.
- Regulation of prediction markets and online betting is changing, and legislative decisions could alter or limit the company's products 1.
Risks
- Dependence on sports resultshigh
Betting revenue is sensitive to sports outcomes and the calendar of major events, so an unfavourable season can cut quarterly revenue quickly 13.
- High indebtednessmedium
Recent acquisitions raised long-term debt, which increases interest and amortisation costs and could limit the ability to fund new investment 13.
- Regulation and taxeshigh
Regulatory changes and tax increases in several jurisdictions could reduce margins, and historical tax exposures have already produced significant provisions 13.
- Competition and customer churnmedium
Low switching barriers make retention fragile, and a drop in engagement could weigh on long-term revenue 1.
- Integration of acquisitionslow
Integrating large acquisitions such as Snai and NSX may run into operational difficulties and require investment that does not pay off quickly 3.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the company keeps its leading U.S. position and captures new demand through prediction markets, revenue growth could return to a stronger trend.
- Diversification across many markets and strong local brands could cushion shocks from any single country or sports season.
- The cost programme could release resources to support investment and improve margins over the longer term.
What would break the thesis
- If the U.S. market stays slow and churn stays high, customer investment could weigh on profitability without a clear revenue recovery.
- Tax increases and provisions could absorb cash flow, and high debt could limit flexibility in a downturn.
- Competition from prediction markets and operators with different cost structures could erode the company's market share over time.
What to watch
- Efectul cheltuielilor suplimentare pentru sezonul NFL asupra marjei EBITDA ajustateQ3 2026
- Trend in average monthly players and U.S. market share as customer investment increasesQ3 2026
- Effect of higher spending ahead of the NFL season on adjusted EBITDA marginQ3 2026
- Growth of FanDuel Predicts and market-making revenue2026
- Delivery of the cost savings programme and leverage relative to EBITDA2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
The business
Flutter offers sportsbook, iGaming (online casino, bingo, poker) and other products such as exchange betting, pari-mutuel wagering and prediction markets in the U.S. For fiscal 2025 it reported 15.9 million average monthly players and $16,383 million of revenue globally 1. It runs two reportable segments, U.S. and International, with brands including FanDuel, Sky Betting & Gaming, Sisal, Snai, PokerStars and Betfair 1.
The company moved its primary listing to the NYSE in May 2024 after registering with the SEC in January 2024, and keeps its London Stock Exchange listing 1. In fiscal 2025 it completed the purchase of a 5% stake in FanDuel, a 56% interest in NSX Group in Brazil and 100% of Snaitech in Italy, bringing its FanDuel holding to 100%, subject to a Fox option 1.
Operations are managed by division, each with its own leadership team, and the company says its 'Flutter Edge' gives local brands group-wide advantages 1. Online businesses generated 88% of Group revenue, complemented by 1,127 retail shops, mainly in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Italy and Serbia 1.
Segments
Market context
The online betting and gaming market keeps expanding as more U.S. states legalise sports betting and iGaming, and outside the U.S. the market is already very large and still growing 1. The company sees prediction markets as an incremental opportunity that could reach around 40% of the U.S. population that cannot currently access regulated online sportsbooks 1.
U.S. sports betting growth was subdued in the first half of 2026, and the company's forecasts assume second-half market growth broadly in line with the mid-single digits seen in the first half 3. If the market recovers to higher levels, the company's share could grow, though this depends on competition and regulation 3.
Trends
- Prediction marketsmixed
Flutter launched FanDuel Predicts with CME Group and is rolling it out nationally, which the company views as an additional growth opportunity but one that also brings investment and regulatory risk 13.
- New state launchestailwind
Legalisation of betting and iGaming in more U.S. states opens new markets, and the July 2026 Alberta launch was described by the company as significantly outpacing its earlier Ontario launch 3.
- Tax and cost pressuresheadwind
A UK gaming tax increase and recorded historical tax provisions reduced profitability, and known tax increases and inflation could continue to pressure margins 3.
- Cost efficiencytailwind
The company has started a new phase of cost transformation targeting gross savings by 2029, which could offset inflation and free capacity for investment in products 3.
Competitive position
Competition comes from large international operators, established local operators, new entrants with alternative products, and CFTC-regulated prediction market providers that offer similar products under different rules 1. Barriers for customers to switch between operators are low, and the company acknowledges that a very large competitor could take market share from it 1.
In the U.S. online market the company holds leading positions in sportsbook and iGaming, with GGR market shares of 39% and 27% in the second quarter of 2026 3. Illegal operators in some jurisdictions and further sector consolidation could still change that position 1.
- Large international betting operators
Global competitors with significant scale, strong brands and the resources for aggressive marketing and pricing across many markets 1.
- Established local betting and gaming operators
Well-established operators in their home markets with local brand recognition that compete directly with the company's local brands 1.
- CFTC-regulated prediction market providers
New entrants with different business models and cost structures offering sports contracts in states where the company cannot yet offer them 1.
- Illegal operators
Operators that avoid licensing and gaming tax requirements, which lowers their costs, and whose growth can intensify competition in affected markets 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- New Flutter CEO bets on FanDuel promotions to win customers as profits sufferCNBC — Top News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Here are Wednesday's biggest analyst calls: Nvidia, SpaceX, Apple, Tesla, Marvell, Flutter, Micron & moreCNBC — Top News · 07 Oct 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Constellation Brands, Flutter Entertainment, Neogen & moreCNBC — Top News · 07 Oct 2026 · EN
- Return of swarming moth spectacle has Australia in a flutterPhys.org · 02 Oct 2026 · EN
- Flutter (FLUT), The World’s Biggest Betting Company Has Lost Two-Thirds of Its Value. Is the Bottom In?Yahoo Finance — News · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- Ciena upgraded, Flutter downgraded: Wall Street's top analyst callsYahoo Finance — News · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
- DraftKings and Flutter Jump After Court Rules Prediction Markets Are Gambling, Not Federally Regulated TradingYahoo Finance — News · 13 Sept 2026 · EN
- Global Growth Fund is Re-Evaluating Flutter Entertainment’s (FLUT) Strategic FitYahoo Finance — News · 07 Sept 2026 · EN
- What's New in Flutter 3.47Hacker News · 12 Aug 2026 · EN
- Kaisel – Routes as Values. Dart 3 Native Router for FlutterHacker News · 01 Aug 2026 · EN
- Michael Burry bets on sportsbooks DraftKings and Flutter, sees prediction markets curbed by regulationCNBC World · 08 Jul 2026 · EN
- Paddy Power owner Flutter to scrap listing on London Stock ExchangeThe Guardian World · 12 Jun 2026 · RO
- FanDuel Owner Flutter to Delist From London After Shift to USBloomberg Markets · 12 Jun 2026 · EN
- Betfair Romania Development, hub-ul de tehnologie al grupului irlandez Flutter - unul dintre cei mai mari operatori de pariuri sportive şi jocuri de noroc din lume, afaceri record de 875,3 mil. lei în 2025 şi aproape 1.900 de angajaţi, plus 196 de persoaneZiarul Financiar · 01 Jun 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 Oct 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 Oct 2026Exit or disposal costs · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report (amendment)01 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report01 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report28 Sept 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Flutter Entertainment plc · 26 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Flutter Entertainment plc · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Flutter Entertainment plc · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.