olivLaw · US equity research
Match Group, Inc. MTCH
Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. · SIC 7370 · Vertical: Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. (SIC 7370)
Match Group operates a portfolio of dating and social connection apps, including Tinder and Hinge, and is working to return Tinder to user growth after a period of declines. Quarterly revenue reached 853 million USD, while Hinge is growing quickly, making the company worth watching through 2026 and 2027.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) stock was 40.21 USD (+4.44% on the day), with market capitalisation 9.1 bn USD, P/E 13.7 on diluted EPS of 2.94 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.96%, beta 0.88, 52-week range 28.90–46.53 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 891.2 m USD (−2.5% YoY), net income of 174.4 m USD (+8.5% YoY), diluted EPS 0.73 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 42.1
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 38.80 – 47.29
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.17 · band width 19.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 42.17 / 36.69
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.25 / 0.37
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.3% | −1.1% | +0.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +5.4% | −0.5% | +5.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +5.8% | +4.4% | +1.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +24.5% | +12.3% | +12.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +27.4% | +13.5% | +13.9 pp | −21.0% |
| 3 years | +36.6% | +76.4% | −39.8 pp | +0.8% |
| 5 years | −75.0% | +63.7% | −138.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 860.2 m | 831.2 m | 863.7 m | 914.3 m | 878.0 m | 863.9 m | 853.1 m | 891.2 m |
| Cost of revenue | 236.4 m | 236.9 m | 241.9 m | 247.0 m | 222.5 m | 210.7 m | 204.3 m | 206.5 m |
| Research & development | 109.1 m | 120.9 m | 114.5 m | 105.0 m | 109.2 m | 116.8 m | 114.8 m | 119.8 m |
| Operating income | 223.4 m | 172.6 m | 193.9 m | 221.3 m | 284.7 m | 236.4 m | 245.5 m | 268.6 m |
| Interest expense | 39.6 m | 35.3 m | 32.2 m | 37.0 m | 43.1 m | 42.5 m | 42.4 m | 41.5 m |
| Pre-tax income | 197.5 m | 140.0 m | 157.7 m | 193.6 m | 254.7 m | 200.5 m | 214.6 m | 224.8 m |
| Income tax | 39.3 m | 22.4 m | 32.2 m | 32.9 m | 45.1 m | 33.7 m | 44.1 m | 50.4 m |
| Net income | 158.3 m | 117.6 m | 125.5 m | 160.7 m | 209.7 m | 166.8 m | 170.5 m | 174.4 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.58 ≈ | 0.44 | 0.49 | 0.62 | 0.83 ≈ | 0.68 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| Operating cash flow | 254.7 m | 193.1 m | 243.8 m ≈ | 320.6 m ≈ | 322.8 m | 194.4 m | 369.8 m ≈ | 322.1 m ≈ |
| Capex | 7.6 m | 15.4 m | 12.9 m ≈ | 13.8 m ≈ | 14.7 m | 20.4 m | 17.3 m ≈ | 17.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 47.8 m | 47.2 m ≈ | 45.9 m ≈ | 45.4 m | 44.2 m | 46.7 m ≈ | 46.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 122.1 m | 188.7 m | 231.0 m ≈ | 130.2 m ≈ | 238.9 m | 60.1 m | 185.3 m ≈ | 90.1 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 34 percentile of its own 38-quarter history (min 5.9, median 16.4, max 458.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | ⚠ 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.7 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | — | +18.6% | +16.6% | +24.8% | +6.9% | +5.5% | +3.4% | +0.2% |
| Net income | 757.7 m | 566.5 m | 221.6 m | 276.6 m | 359.9 m | 651.5 m | 551.3 m | 613.5 m |
| Net income YoY | — | −25.2% | −60.9% | +24.8% | +30.1% | +81.0% | −15.4% | +11.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.05 | 2.15 | 0.66 | 0.93 | 1.24 | 2.26 | 2.02 | 2.38 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | — | −29.5% | −69.3% | +40.9% | +33.3% | +82.3% | −10.6% | +17.8% |
| net % | 43.8% | 27.6% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 19.4% | 15.8% | 17.6% |
| Free cash flow | 956.7 m | 898.9 m | unavailable | 832.5 m | 476.6 m | 829.4 m | 882.1 m | 1.0 bn |
The series breaks before 2018: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.0 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 4.0 bn USD
- Net debt
- 2.9 bn USD
- Equity
- -253.4 m USD
- Total assets
- 4.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.42x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 13.7%
- FCF margin
- 29.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.4 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 635.8 m | 839.3 m | 960.0 m | 954.0 m | 991.3 m | 948.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.8 bn ≈ | 2.1 bn ≈ | 2.2 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Research & development | 169.8 m | 241.0 m | 333.6 m | 384.2 m | 442.2 m | 449.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 745.7 m | 851.7 m | 515.0 m | 916.9 m | 823.3 m | 872.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 130.6 m | 130.5 m | 145.5 m | 159.9 m | 160.1 m | 147.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 631.0 m | 256.1 m | 377.5 m | 776.8 m | 704.1 m | 746.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 43.3 m | -19.9 m | 15.4 m | 125.3 m | 152.7 m | 132.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 221.6 m | 276.6 m | 359.9 m | 651.5 m | 551.3 m | 613.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.66 | 0.93 | 1.24 | 2.26 | 2.02 | 2.38 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 256.0 m | 304.8 m | 295.2 m | 293.3 m | 279.1 m | 262.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | — | — | 0.19 | 0.76 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 739.2 m | 815.4 m | 572.4 m | 862.4 m | 966.0 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 137.0 m | 188.5 m | 191.9 m | 298.6 m | 325.0 m | 303.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 882.4 m | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 107.8 m | 163.3 m | 176.1 m | 194.5 m | 158.2 m | 131.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 230.9 m | 771.7 m | 357.7 m | 305.7 m | 215.4 m | 192.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 3.0 bn | 5.1 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 100.5 m | 0 | — | 0 | 423.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 3.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 500.0 m | 1.2 bn | 556.4 m | 531.8 m | 549.5 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | -1.4 bn | -195.8 m | -358.9 m | -19.1 m | -63.7 m | -253.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | — | 912.5 m | 525.7 m | 896.8 m | 932.7 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 42.4 m | 80.0 m | 49.1 m | 67.4 m | 50.6 m | 56.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | — | 832.5 m ≈ | 476.6 m ≈ | 829.4 m ≈ | 882.1 m ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | — | -939.8 m | -71.7 m | -76.6 m | -58.5 m | -46.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | — | 111.1 m | -689.2 m | -534.1 m | -758.3 m | -984.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 0 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 186.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 482.0 m | 546.2 m | 752.7 m | 788.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 60 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 9.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation63
- Returns100
- Quality93
- Balance sheet58
- Growth14
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.00 – 128.74 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)71.49 – 128.74 (Mid 92.42)WACC 8.1% · starting FCFF 1.3 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 77%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -23.9%
- Peers: EV/Sales0.00 – 105.38 (Mid 9.64)13 companies used · median multiple 1.4x · quartiles 0.8x – 7.7xAPP, BMBL, DOCN, FLUT, GOOGL, HCAT, LGCL, NIQ, RXT, SIFY, SNAP, TEAD, WB
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 60/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | 75.8% | 89 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | 29.7% | 89 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF margin · Quality | 32.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 3.0% | 12 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | 0.2% | 18 (vs peers) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.8x | 58 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | 3.4x | 36 (vs peers) | 18% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 12.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 8.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial58/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Growth14/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality93/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Valuation63/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Match Group, Inc. (MTCH). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 0.2%; net margin 20.7%.
The estimated value range is 35.75–117.06 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 51.03 USD, the price of 40.21 USD leaves a potential of 26.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 21.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 60/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Gross margin: 75.8%
- EBIT margin: 29.7%
- FCF margin: 32.7%
- FCF yield: 12.5%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 8.3%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 3.0%
- Revenue growth (YoY): 0.2%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc. (SIC 7370) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGLAlphabet Inc. | 3,552.1 bn | 15.1 | 44.3% | 50.0% | +15.1% | −10% / +118% |
| APPAppLovin Corporation | 90.0 bn | 18.3 | 210.1% | 65.9% | +70.0% | −55% / +625% |
| FLUTFlutter Entertainment plc | 14.2 bn | — | -14.3% | -7.1% | +16.6% | −61% / −48% |
| SNAPSnap Inc | 10.2 bn | — | -15.6% | -4.9% | +10.6% | −23% / −57% |
| DOCNDigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. | 9.9 bn | 281.3 | 5.1% | 3.1% | +15.5% | +89% / +184% |
| MTCHMatch Group, Inc. | 9.1 bn | 13.7 | — | 20.7% | +0.2% | +27% / +37% |
| NIQNIQ Global Intelligence plc | 6.0 bn | — | -65.3% | -8.0% | +5.7% | +29% / unavailable |
| SIFYSify Technologies Ltd | 5.8 bn | — | -4.1% | -2.0% | +9.0% | +20% / +53% |
| WIXWix.com Ltd. | 4.4 bn | 91.5 | — | 2.5% | +13.2% | −16% / −21% |
| DVDoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. | 2.1 bn | 34.0 | 5.8% | 8.2% | +13.9% | +29% / −59% |
| BZKanzhun Limited | 1.7 bn | 41.6 | 16.0% | 33.1% | +17.3% | −21% / +6% |
| WBWeibo Corporation | 1.6 bn | 3.8 | 12.1% | 25.6% | +0.1% | −35% / −36% |
| HSTMHealthstream Inc | 949.7 m | 45.4 | 6.0% | 6.6% | +4.3% | +29% / +30% |
| NXDRNextdoor Holdings, Inc | 934.4 m | — | -7.2% | -11.1% | +4.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| CEVACeva, Inc. | 788.9 m | — | -3.6% | -9.5% | +2.5% | +30% / +29% |
| BMBLBumble Inc. | 718.8 m | — | -85.9% | -61.8% | −9.9% | +69% / −57% |
| RXTRackspace Technology, Inc. | 716.2 m | — | — | -5.9% | −1.9% | +165% / +123% |
| HUYAHUYA Inc. | 470.7 m | — | -1.9% | -1.7% | +11.6% | −27% / −38% |
| BLNDBlend Labs, Inc. | 302.7 m | — | — | -3.3% | +6.8% | −59% / +1% |
| HCATHealth Catalyst, Inc. | 119.7 m | — | -118.1% | -90.6% | +1.5% | −47% / −78% |
| JFJ & Friends Holdings Ltd | 68.4 m | — | — | -82.9% | −66.8% | −3% / −17% |
| GOAIEva Live Inc | 31.8 m | — | -58.5% | -39.3% | +82.6% | unavailable / unavailable |
| HOLOMicroCloud Hologram Inc. | 27.2 m | — | -2.3% | -12.4% | +38.6% | −66% / −100% |
| TEADTeads Holding Co. | 27.0 m | — | -196.2% | -43.3% | +46.1% | −61% / −93% |
| IPDNProfessional Diversity Network, Inc. | 23.7 m | — | -95.7% | -143.9% | −2.7% | −15% / −91% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MTCH from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 25.29 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 44.75 Total return 13% · Per year 13% | 67.45 Total return 70% · Per year 70% |
| 3 years | 23.83 Total return -36% · Per year -14% | 47.50 Total return 25% · Per year 8% | 78.71 Total return 104% · Per year 27% |
| 5 years | 22.44 Total return -36% · Per year -9% | 50.42 Total return 37% · Per year 6% | 91.85 Total return 144% · Per year 20% |
- Exit P/E± 11.87
- Net margin± 8.31
- Annual revenue growth± 6.92
- Annual dilution± 0.70
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Match Group operates a portfolio of dating and social connection apps, including Tinder and Hinge, and is working to return Tinder to user growth after a period of declines. Quarterly revenue reached 853 million USD 3, while Hinge is growing quickly, making the company worth watching through 2026 and 2027.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Loss of usershigh
If the company cannot retain or expand its user base, revenue and financial results could be further affected 1.
- Intense competitionhigh
Low switching costs could allow new competitors to grow quickly, especially large social platforms 1.
- Dependence on app storesmedium
Distribution and payments rely largely on Apple and Google, and policy changes could directly affect revenue 1.
- Internal restructuringmedium
Headcount reductions and reorganizations could disrupt operations and may not achieve their intended goals 1.
- Debt and refinancingmedium
The company has significant fixed-rate debt, and its ability to service it depends on continued cash generation 2.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What to watch
- Trends in Tinder daily active usersQ3 2026
- Achievement of the Hinge revenue target2027
- Guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDAQ3 2026
- Reinstatement of Azar in the App Store and impact on the user basenext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Match Group, Inc. is a digital technology provider that helps people make meaningful connections through a portfolio of brands including Tinder, Hinge, Match and Plenty Of Fish 1. Revenue comes mainly from recurring subscriptions and à la carte purchases by users, while advertising makes up a much smaller share 1. After its reorganization in the second quarter of 2026, the company manages its portfolio in three business units: Tinder, Hinge and Everyone Everywhere 2.
Segments
Tinder
Tinder is the company's largest brand and operates on a freemium model with premium subscriptions 1. The brand has seen user declines in recent years, and in the second quarter of 2026 the year-over-year decline in daily active users narrowed to 4% 3.
Market context
Trends
- Tinder turnaroundmixed
The company has shifted Tinder's strategy toward improving user outcomes, with new features and face verification, and usage indicators improved in the second quarter 13. If the trend continues, the decline could slow, although Tinder revenue could still decrease in 2026 1.
- App store feestailwind
Fees paid to Apple and Google on in-app purchases fell in 2025, and the company expects further savings in 2026 absent changes to app store fee structures 1. Regulation in the European Union could further change these costs 1.
- App store regulationheadwind
Apple and Google are under scrutiny and regulation in many jurisdictions, which could change payment and distribution terms for the company's apps 1. The removal of Azar from the App Store shows how much the company depends on these platforms 12.
- Declining demand among younger usersheadwind
Demand for dating apps has softened among younger generations, particularly women, and the company is focusing investment on user outcomes 1. If behavioural shifts continue, paying user numbers could remain under pressure 13.
Competitive position
The social connection app industry has no clear global leader, and the company faces competitors from social media and discovery platforms 1. Platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and Snap offer dating or social discovery features, sometimes free of charge to users 1. Offline competition from traditional matchmaking services remains relevant 1.
Match Group's advantage lies in its diversified brand portfolio, which covers different needs from casual connections to serious relationships 1. A user often uses several of the company's apps, which strengthens the portfolio advantage 1. Still, larger competitors could quickly develop similar services 1.
- Meta Platforms (Facebook, Instagram)META
Social platforms that include dating features and have a large user base 1.
- SnapSNAP
Social app named among competitors for connections between people 1.
- TikTok
Social and discovery platform named among the company's competitors 1.
- Offline matchmaking agencies
Traditional dating services cited as an alternative to apps 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Tinder's US daily active users return to growth in October as Match ramps up AI effortsCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Why did Tinder’s scam detection fail, and what should Indian users do?The Hindu — International · 26 Oct 2026 · EN
- Congressional probe faults Match Group for failing to rein in dating app scamsThe Record (Recorded Future) · 14 Oct 2026 · EN
- Rivalul lui Tinder, Bumble, și alte aplicații de dating se vând la o valoare de până la 1,3 miliarde dolariStartupCafe.ro · 13 Oct 2026 · RO
- "Europa e vulnerabilă până în 2030". Șeful armatei olandeze compară programele UE de apărare cu "Tinder, cu toate frustrările aferente"Antena 3 CNN · 01 Oct 2026 · RO
- Europa, vulnerabilă până în 2030. Șeful armatei olandeze compară apărarea UE cu aplicația Tinder: „Cu toate frustrările aferente”Digi24 · 01 Oct 2026 · RO
- Командующий ВС Нидерландов сравнил оборонное сотрудничество в ЕС с TinderRBC News (RU business+politics) · 30 Sept 2026 · RU
- Swipe east: Tinder operator steps up expansion in Japan, CEO saysNikkei Asia · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
- Alertă la o bază NATO după aventura unui ofițer pe Tinder / O femeie cu care avea o relație ar fi fost chestionată ulterior de un agent FSB, susține aceastaG4Media · 15 Sept 2026 · RO
- Alertă la o bază NATO după aventura unui ofițer pe Tinder | Femeia a fost suspectată de legături cu RusiaMediafax · 14 Sept 2026 · RO
- Relația de pe Tinder a unui ofițer NATO a declanșat o alertă de securitate la o bază din Marea BritanieAntena 3 CNN · 14 Sept 2026 · RO
- Un comandant NATO și-a cunoscut iubita rusoaică pe Tinder. Relația care a declanșat suspiciuni de spionajAdevărul · 14 Sept 2026 · RO
- Relație pe Tinder între un comandant NATO și o rusoaică: povestea care a declanșat temeri de spionaj la vârful AlianțeiDigi24 · 14 Sept 2026 · RO
- You, me and ChatGPT: From Tinder to texting, AI tools are complicating dating normsCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 04 Sept 2026 · EN
- Molly Ticehurst’s killer called woman he’d met on Tinder after stabbing and said ‘I’m sorry I murdered her’, court hearsThe Guardian World · 04 Sept 2026 · EN
- Judecătoria Sfântu Gheoghe. Profil fals pe Tinder, cu numele și fotografiile altei persoane. Condamnare pentru fals informaticJuridice.ro · 20 Aug 2026 · RO
- Avem Tinder, Bumble și rețele sociale. Atunci de ce e atât de greu să ne găsim un partener?Adevărul · 20 Aug 2026 · RO
- Plan A's problem with dry tinderLessWrong · 10 Jul 2026 · EN
- Stalker who used fake Tinder profile to lure men to ex’s home jailed for eight yearsThe Guardian World · 29 Jun 2026 · RO
- Startupul românesc de dating care încearcă să bată Tinder. Aplicația pune AI-ul să caute compatibilitate psihologică, nu swipe-uriStartupCafe.ro · 27 May 2026 · RO
The latest news item in our archive is from 02 Nov 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report03 Nov 2026
- Current report02 Nov 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Current report05 May 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report30 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Proxy statement30 Apr 2026
- Current report05 Mar 2026Departure or appointment of officers
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Match Group, Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Match Group, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Match Group, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.