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olivLaw · US equity research

Green Dot Corporation GDOT

Finance Services · SIC 6199 · Vertical: Finance Services (SIC 6199)

12.76USD+2.49% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Green Dot is a financial technology platform and registered bank holding company offering digital bank accounts, prepaid cards and money processing services to consumers and businesses. The company is in the middle of transactions that would split its operations between CommerceOne and Smith Ventures, so its outlook depends on regulatory approvals. Total operating revenues grew 20.7% in fiscal 2025.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Green Dot Corporation (GDOT) stock was 12.76 USD (+2.49% on the day), with market capitalisation 727.1 m USD, P/E 12.6 on diluted EPS of 1.01 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.16, 52-week range 10.53–13.58 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 595.9 m USD (+18.2% YoY), net income of -2.1 m USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
727.1 m USD
shares as of 31 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
12.6
Diluted EPS TTM 1.01 · TTM to 31 Dec 2014
E/P (TTM)
7.94%
TTM to 31 Dec 2014
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.16
Volatility (1y) 24%
52-week range
10.5313.58

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
60.1
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
11.99 – 12.70
above the upper band · %B 1.08 · band width 5.8%
SMA 50 / 200
12.71 / 12.52
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.06 / -0.13
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+1.9%−1.1%+3.0 pp—
3 months−5.3%−0.5%−4.9 pp—
6 months+1.6%+4.4%−2.8 pp—
Year to date−0.4%+12.3%−12.7 pp—
1 year+9.5%+13.5%−4.0 pp−47.5%
3 years+4.6%+76.4%−71.8 pp−58.0%
5 years−71.0%+63.7%−134.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−22.5%
11 Dec 2025 → 13 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−85.8%
10 Nov 2021 → 12 Mar 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
−21.9%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
595.9 m USD
+18.2% YoY
Net income
-2.1 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
unavailable
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-0.4% / -0.1%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue409.7 m455.0 m558.9 m504.2 m494.8 m522.6 m656.2 m595.9 m
Operating income-2.9 m14.4 m60.7 m13.4 m-32.8 m-27.7 m69.0 m-761.0 k
Depreciation & amortisation15.5 m ≈15.7 m15.2 m16.1 m ≈16.3 m ≈17.2 m18.1 m18.7 m ≈
Income tax-374.0 k2.8 m7.9 m-15.9 m-4.9 m14.5 m13.9 m-268.0 k
Net income-7.8 m5.1 m25.8 m-47.0 m-30.8 m-46.8 m53.8 m-2.1 m
Operating cash flow-16.3 m ≈-23.0 m108.7 m69.0 m ≈23.3 m ≈-62.5 m95.1 m99.6 m ≈
Capex20.7 m ≈22.1 m19.4 m19.5 m ≈19.8 m ≈13.8 m19.0 m19.8 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue1.1 bn1.1 bn1.3 bn1.4 bn1.4 bn1.5 bn1.7 bn2.1 bn
Revenue YoY+18.2%+4.0%+13.1%+14.3%+1.1%+3.6%+14.8%+20.7%
Net income118.7 m99.9 m23.1 m47.5 m64.2 m6.7 m-26.7 m-98.9 m
Net income YoY+38.2%−15.8%−76.8%+105.3%+35.2%−89.5%−497.2%unavailable
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %11.1%9.0%1.8%3.3%4.4%0.4%-1.5%-4.8%
Free cash flow190.0 m111.7 m150.1 m109.6 m193.4 m21.6 m7.1 m66.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
1.4 bn USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
890.2 m USD
Total assets
6.0 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
0.52x
ROE
-11.2%
ROA
-1.7%
FCF margin
3.2%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
22.7 m
2024
-1.7 m
2025
13.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
58.7 m
2024
63.4 m
2025
64.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
81.4 m ≈
2024
61.8 m ≈
2025
78.4 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2023
14.6 m
2024
-22.5 m
2025
-97.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
7.9 m
2024
4.2 m
2025
1.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
6.7 m
2024
-26.7 m
2025
-98.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
52.5 m
2024
53.5 m
2025
55.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
682.3 m
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
110.1 m
2024
132.0 m
2025
197.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
1.6 bn
2024
2.4 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
179.4 m
2024
188.4 m
2025
198.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
301.8 m
2024
301.8 m
2025
301.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
118.7 m
2024
96.2 m
2025
72.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
4.8 bn
2024
5.4 bn
2025
6.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
119.9 m
2024
103.8 m
2025
114.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
4.0 bn
2024
4.5 bn
2025
5.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
4.0 bn
2024
4.6 bn
2025
5.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
859.4 m †
2024
873.6 m †
2025
890.2 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
97.5 m
2024
81.4 m
2025
138.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
75.9 m
2024
74.3 m
2025
72.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
21.6 m ≈
2024
7.1 m ≈
2025
66.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
33.2 m
2024
81.4 m
2025
-450.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-264.0 m
2024
743.1 m
2025
141.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
0
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
20.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
12.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
10.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
830.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
0.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
3.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
-2.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-0.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
155.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
72.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
83.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
199.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
19 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
727.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
0.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
8.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
11.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 4 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

12.76 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 727.1 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
727.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-2.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
20.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

25/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 10 Aug 2026
verified 1833derived 118

Score by group

27% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Finance Services (SIC 6199)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-1.1%60 (vs peers)23%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth12.8%100 (on a fixed band)31%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.4x0 (on a fixed band)15%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation11.4%100 (on a fixed band)31%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial60/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

GREEN DOT CORP (GDOT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 20.7%; net margin -1.1%; ROE -2.8%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 12.8%
  • FCF yield: 11.4%

What contradicts it

  • Current ratio: 0.4x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Finance Services (SIC 6199) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 23.7x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
0.3x
vertical median 4.7x
below median (−93.2%)
P/B
0.8x
vertical median 1.8x
below median (−57.3%)
ROE
-2.8%
vertical median -25.4%
above median
Net margin
-1.1%
vertical median -117.2%
above median
EBIT margin
0.3%
vertical median -148.1%
above median
Revenue YoY
20.7%
vertical median 17.6%
above median (+17.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.1%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
AXPAmerican Express Co223.0 bn18.735.9%27.9%+6.4%−9% / +95%
ARBKArgo Blockchain PLC45.2 bn——-117.2%−7.0%−97% / −99%
COINCoinbase Global, Inc.40.1 bn—-4.7%-12.5%+9.4%−44% / +21%
SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc.22.4 bn36.37.1%104.3%+23.1%−42% / +138%
MARAMara Holdings, Inc.2.7 bn—-107.2%-430.2%+38.2%−42% / −43%
UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc.2.3 bn39.98.0%4.9%+64.0%−48% / −13%
PURRHyperliquid Strategies Inc1.9 bn3.032.6%3,229.8%unavailableunavailable / unavailable
CLSKCleanSpark, Inc.1.7 bn—-68.6%-130.2%+102.2%−55% / +9%
BTDRBitdeer Technologies Group1.5 bn—-196.7%-171.3%−5.1%−51% / +45%
RHLDResolute Holdings Management, Inc.1.0 bn24.1—4.2%+9.9%−26% / unavailable
CDChaince Digital Holdings Inc.741.4 m—-12.3%-182.5%+277.9%−30% / +622%
GDOTGreen Dot Corp727.1 m—-2.8%-1.1%+20.7%+10% / +5%
TRONTron Inc.664.1 m96.83.8%135.6%+10.0%−24% / −48%
JFU9F Inc.536.7 m23.24.7%125.2%+12.2%−52% / −43%
BTBTBit Digital, Inc.300.9 m—-56.7%-237.2%+5.1%−65% / −68%
CANGCango Inc.272.7 m—-130.8%-90.4%+524.3%−92% / −76%
BGINBgin Blockchain Limited203.6 m—-134.0%-262.6%−77.7%−38% / unavailable
CNTNCanton Strategic Holdings, Inc.172.1 m—-43.1%—unavailable−17% / −83%
USBCUsbc, Inc.166.5 m—-414.1%—−100.0%−47% / −97%
SNFCASecurity National Financial Corporation166.1 m6.59.0%11.1%+3.0%+15% / +37%
TONXTon Strategy Company159.7 m—-75.5%-532.8%+1,327.8%−15% / −93%
BMHLBluemount Holdings Limited79.0 m61,098.226.2%18.8%unavailable−8% / unavailable
UPXIUpexi, Inc.62.9 m—-1,356.3%-984.3%+58.1%−73% / −95%
SGRXSangrix Inc.40.8 m—-300.3%-36,190.3%−98.6%−99% / −100%
AVXAvax One Technology Ltd.34.9 m—-189.6%-1,533.9%+8,709.3%−80% / −100%

1- and 3-year price returns: for GDOT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Green Dot is a financial technology platform and registered bank holding company offering digital bank accounts, prepaid cards and money processing services to consumers and businesses. The company is in the middle of transactions that would split its operations between CommerceOne and Smith Ventures, so its outlook depends on regulatory approvals. Total operating revenues grew 20.7% in fiscal 2025 1.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The company owns a bank and a compliance framework that customers increasingly consider when choosing a platform 3. Its broad distribution network and tax processing channel are assets that are hard to replicate 1.
    • The B2B segment is growing strongly and has a portfolio of large partners, which diversifies revenue 12.
    • Total operating revenues grew 17.8% in the first half of 2026, supported by the processing segments 2.

    Weaknesses

    • The Consumer segment has been shrinking for several years, and active accounts are declining 12.
    • Tax processing revenue is seasonal, which makes quarterly profit volatile 13.
    • Reliance on one major retail partner and a few large BaaS partners raises concentration risk 1.

    Opportunities

    • Expanding BaaS partnerships and earned wage access products could add volume and revenue 3.
    • If the transactions close, the fintech business could operate as an independent, growth-focused entity 3.
    • Tax advance programmes have shown momentum with customers, which could extend existing offers 3.

    Threats

    • If regulatory approvals are delayed or conditioned, the timing of the transactions could change 1.
    • Macroeconomic pressure on consumers could continue to weigh on accounts and purchase volumes 1.
    • Competition from embedded platforms and online tax preparers could reduce market share 2.

    Risks

    • Regulatory approvalshigh

      The transactions depend on approvals from the Federal Reserve and Utah authorities, and conditions attached could delay or alter the deal 1.

    • Shareholder litigationmedium

      Demand letters from shareholders challenge disclosures in the registration statement, and lawsuits could delay closing 1.

    • Transaction costsmedium

      Merger and sale costs are substantial and could rise if the transaction is prolonged 1.

    • Seasonality and volatilitylow

      Concentration of tax processing revenue in the first half makes quarterly results vary sharply 2.

    • Dependence on large partnersmedium

      Growth relies on a few BaaS and retail partners, and losing one could affect revenue 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • The B2B segment is growing quickly, and BaaS growth supports total revenue, which rose in fiscal 2025 and in the first half of 2026 12.
    • If the transactions close, the fintech business could have a more flexible structure focused on growth 3.
    • Operating efficiency and cost control supported first-half adjusted EBITDA, although the second quarter was below the prior year 3.

    What would break the thesis

    • The Consumer segment keeps shrinking, and quarterly results depend on tax seasonality, which makes profit hard to predict 12.
    • Regulatory uncertainty and shareholder litigation could delay or alter the announced transactions 1.
    • Concentration on a few large partners and competitive pressure could limit long-term growth 12.

    What to watch

    • Federal Reserve and Utah approvals for the announced transactions2026
    • Third-quarter results, especially the trend in the Consumer segmentQ3 2026
    • Volume of tax refunds processed in the coming seasonQ1 2027
    • Next 10-K and any information on new BaaS partnersnext 10-K

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Green Dot Corporation, founded in 1999, is a financial technology platform and registered bank holding company that builds banking and payment solutions for businesses of all sizes. Through its wholly owned subsidiary Green Dot Bank, it issues most of its products, including the GO2bank digital account, prepaid cards and the Arc platform for embedded finance 1. The Green Dot Network includes more than 90,000 retail distribution and cash access locations nationwide 1. As the issuing bank, the company is directly accountable for the compliance and safety of each program 1.

    Revenue comes from interchange fees, card revenues, program management fees paid by partners and interest income on deposits held at Green Dot Bank 1. Money processing services such as cash transfers and disbursements are charged per transaction 1. In the first half of 2026, total operating revenues reached 1,252.1 million USD, up 17.8% 2.

    In November 2025 the company agreed a merger with CommerceOne Financial Corporation and a sale of its non-bank business to Payments Buyer, an affiliate of Smith Ventures, for 690 million USD 1. If the transactions close, Green Dot Bank would move under CommerceOne, while the fintech business would continue separately 3.

    Segments

    B2B Services

    The B2B segment includes Banking-as-a-Service partnerships and the employer payroll business. Revenues rose 33% in fiscal 2025 1 and 29% in the second quarter of 2026 2. Growth is driven by BaaS programs that earn program management fees rather than only interchange 1.

    Consumer Services

    The Consumer segment covers accounts and cards sold through retail and direct online channels. Revenues fell 9% in fiscal 2025 1 and fell by the same proportion in the second quarter of 2026 2. Pressures come from consumer behaviour and competition for account acquisition 1.

    Money Movement Services

    The Money Movement segment covers tax refund processing and cash transfers. Tax processing is highly seasonal and concentrated in the first quarter 1. The number of tax refunds processed fell 23% in the second quarter of 2026, while first-half revenues increased 2.

    Market context

    The market for digital banking and embedded payments in the United States is competitive, and the company competes on distribution, innovation, compliance and brand 1. Gross dollar volume grew 18% in fiscal 2025 1, which points to demand in the BaaS segment. Demand for consumer accounts has been flat, and macroeconomic pressures have affected customer acquisition 1.

    The tax refund processing market depends on the number of taxpayers and on preparation channels, and online partners have influenced volumes 1. Banking regulation remains important, since regulatory approvals set the timing of the transactions 1.

    Trends

    • Growth of BaaS programstailwind

      Banking-as-a-Service partnerships generate volume and program fees, which supported revenue growth 12. If new partners continue to launch, the segment could keep its pace 3.

    • Decline in consumer accountsheadwind

      Active accounts and purchase volume in the Consumer segment fell over several quarters 12. Pressure on consumers and retail competition could extend this trend.

    • Tax seasonalitymixed

      Tax refund processing revenue is concentrated in the first half, so quarterly results fluctuate widely. Shifts of revenue between quarters weighed on second-quarter EBITDA 3.

    • Balance sheet optimisationmixed

      Net interest income rose in fiscal 2025 because of partner deposits and a bond repositioning strategy 1. If this efficiency holds, margins could improve, although they depend on interest rates.

    Competitive position

    The company competes with financial institutions, payment processors and consumer technology providers on distribution, service quality and compliance 1. The official sources describe competitors only in general terms, without naming them 1.

    In tax processing and BaaS, competitive pressure comes from online partners and embedded platforms that can change distribution terms 12. Market share stability depends on the launch of new partners 3.

    • Digital bank account providers

      Compete for the same consumers who use mobile accounts and prepaid cards, an area where the company has reported acquisition pressure 1.

    • Embedded payment platforms

      Compete in the BaaS segment, where the company builds its offer around integration with large partners 1.

    • Online tax preparation providers

      Influence the volume of refunds processed, since they were the main source of the second-quarter decline 2.

    • Retail networks offering financial services

      Compete for shelf space and card distribution in stores, a channel essential to the company 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Green Dot Corporation · 16 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Green Dot Corporation · 10 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Green Dot Corporation · 10 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.