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olivLaw · US equity research

INCY INCY

Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research · SIC 8731 · Vertical: Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research (SIC 8731)

122.85USD+4.47% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Incyte is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on hematology, oncology, and inflammation and autoimmunity. In the second quarter of 2026 total revenue was 1.67 billion USD and total net sales 1.49 billion USD, up 40% year on year, though this includes a one-time non-cash benefit of 246 million USD tied to Opzelura. Full-year 2026 total net sales guidance was raised to 5,130-5,260 million USD.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, INCY (INCY) stock was 122.85 USD (+4.47% on the day), with market capitalisation 25.0 bn USD, P/E 65.2 on diluted EPS of 1.88 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.55, 52-week range 90.30–129.93 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.6 bn USD (+14.0% YoY), net income of -784.8 m USD (−285.0% YoY), diluted EPS -3.86 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
25.0 bn USD
shares as of 22 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
65.2
Diluted EPS TTM 1.88 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
1.53%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.55
Volatility (1y) 33%
52-week range
90.30129.93

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
60.2
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
108.42 – 121.96
above the upper band · %B 1.07 · band width 11.7%
SMA 50 / 200
119.99 / 108.29
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.36 / -0.76
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+7.6%−1.1%+8.7 pp—
3 months+2.5%−0.5%+3.0 pp—
6 months+23.0%+4.4%+18.6 pp—
Year to date+24.4%+12.3%+12.1 pp—
1 year+19.4%+13.5%+5.8 pp+10.9%
3 years+124.0%+76.4%+47.6 pp−23.9%
5 years+81.0%+63.7%+17.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−18.3%
07 Jan 2026 → 27 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−40.5%
26 Jan 2023 → 25 Apr 2024
Compound annual growth (5y)
+12.6%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.6 bn USD
+14.0% YoY
Net income
-784.8 m USD
−285.0% YoY
Diluted EPS
-3.86
−282.9% YoY
net / operating
-50.4% / -45.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue1.2 bn1.1 bn1.2 bn1.4 bn1.5 bn1.3 bn1.7 bn1.6 bn
Cost of revenue88.5 m73.2 m78.8 m99.0 m121.2 m104.5 m105.0 m108.7 m
Research & development466.0 m437.3 m494.9 m506.6 m611.4 m515.9 m517.0 m1.8 bn
SG&A326.7 m325.7 m331.0 m329.1 m390.4 m328.1 m351.7 m364.3 m
Operating income301.5 m205.2 m530.3 m443.5 m335.9 m301.1 m697.9 m-708.4 m
Depreciation & amortisation22.7 m22.4 m22.9 m ≈24.0 m ≈24.0 m23.8 m26.5 m ≈24.2 m ≈
Interest expense419.0 k660.0 k594.0 k592.0 k582.0 k569.0 k582.0 k605.0 k
Pre-tax income313.7 m234.2 m558.0 m482.3 m389.9 m343.6 m751.5 m-688.8 m
Income tax112.5 m76.0 m153.0 m58.1 m90.7 m40.3 m165.9 m96.0 m
Net income201.2 m158.2 m405.0 m424.2 m299.3 m303.3 m585.6 m-784.8 m
Diluted EPS0.97 ≈0.802.042.111.46 ≈1.472.81-3.86
Operating cash flow381.2 m266.1 m44.7 m ≈559.4 m ≈543.3 m369.4 m507.7 m ≈-675.3 m ≈
Share repurchases0——0 ≈0———

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 33-quarter history (min 13.3, median 42.6, max 10,845.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue1.9 bn2.2 bn2.7 bn3.0 bn3.4 bn3.7 bn4.2 bn5.1 bn
Revenue YoY+22.5%+14.7%+23.5%+12.0%+13.7%+8.9%+14.8%+21.2%
Net income109.5 m446.9 m-295.7 m948.6 m340.7 m597.6 m32.6 m1.3 bn
Net income YoYunavailable+308.2%−166.2%unavailable−64.1%+75.4%−94.5%+3,845.0%
Diluted EPS0.512.05-1.364.271.522.650.156.41
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable+302.0%−166.3%unavailable−64.4%+74.3%−94.3%+4,173.3%
net %5.8%20.7%-11.1%31.8%10.0%16.2%0.8%25.0%
Free cash flow262.7 m632.6 m-312.0 m568.5 m892.1 munavailableunavailableunavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
3.1 bn USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
5.2 bn USD
Total assets
7.0 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
3.32x
ROE
29.9%
ROA
20.7%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
3.7 bn
2024
4.2 bn
2025
5.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
255.0 m
2024
312.1 m
2025
372.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
3.4 bn ≈
2024
3.9 bn ≈
2025
4.8 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026derived

Research & development
2023
1.6 bn
2024
2.6 bn
2025
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
620.5 m
2024
61.4 m
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
82.7 m
2024
89.2 m
2025
93.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
703.2 m ≈
2024
150.6 m ≈
2025
1.6 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
2.6 m
2024
2.3 m
2025
2.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
834.2 m
2024
316.6 m
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
236.6 m
2024
284.0 m
2025
377.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
597.6 m
2024
32.6 m
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
2.65
2024
0.15
2025
6.41

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
225.9 m
2024
210.5 m
2025
200.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
3.2 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
63.0 m
2024
58.9 m
2025
101.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
4.6 bn
2024
3.2 bn
2025
5.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
751.5 m
2024
763.4 m
2025
730.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
155.6 m
2024
155.6 m
2025
133.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
6.8 bn
2024
5.4 bn
2025
7.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
109.6 m
2024
197.5 m
2025
209.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.6 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
5.2 bn †
2024
3.4 bn †
2025
5.2 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
496.5 m
2024
335.3 m
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 07 Feb 2023verified

Free cash flow
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 07 Feb 2023derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-207.7 m
2024
157.5 m
2025
-102.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-20.0 m
2024
-2.0 bn
2025
101.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
2.0 bn
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
21.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
14.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
14.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
2,368.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
3,845.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
55.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
4,173.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
61.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
92.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
12.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
10.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
6.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
7.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
5.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
10.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
268.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
3.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
3.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
2.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
745.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
102.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
90 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
169 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
25.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
62.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
65.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
1.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
4.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
4.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

122.85 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 25.0 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
25.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
65.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
4.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
7.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
6.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
21.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 22 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 29 Oct 2026
verified 2296derived 180

Score by group

50% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
64.46
USD per share
Mid
68.59
USD per share
High
100.24
USD per share
Price: 122.85 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -44.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -79.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 64.46 – 100.24 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E64.46 – 100.24 (Mid 68.59)
    3 companies used · median multiple 36.4x · quartiles 34.2x – 53.2x
    ICLR, IQV, MEDP
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research (SIC 8731)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality6.7%82 (vs peers)13%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth14.8%100 (on a fixed band)17%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth61.6%100 (on a fixed band)17%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet268.0x100 (on a fixed band)13%
Current ratio · Balance sheet3.8x100 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation65.2x60 (vs peers)21%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.0%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial82/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial60/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

INCYTE CORPORATION (INCY). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 21.2%; net margin 6.7%; ROE 7.8%.

The estimated value range is 64.46–100.24 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 68.59 USD, the price of 122.85 USD leaves a potential of -44.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -79.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 6.7%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 14.8%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 61.6%
  • Interest coverage: 268.0x
  • Current ratio: 3.8x

What contradicts it

  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research (SIC 8731) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 11 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
65.2x
vertical median 70.0x
below median (−6.9%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 24.6x
P/S
4.2x
vertical median 4.6x
below median (−8.5%)
P/B
4.4x
vertical median 4.8x
below median (−8.4%)
ROE
7.8%
vertical median -7.6%
above median
Net margin
6.7%
vertical median -108.1%
above median
EBIT margin
10.4%
vertical median -115.9%
above median
Revenue YoY
21.2%
vertical median -4.0%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 3.4x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
IQVIqvia Holdings Inc.43.5 bn32.021.7%8.1%+5.9%+15% / +23%
INCYIncyte Corporation25.0 bn65.27.8%6.7%+21.2%+19% / +124%
MEDPMedpace Holdings, Inc.18.4 bn36.4117.9%18.2%+20.0%+11% / +143%
CRLCharles River Laboratories International, Inc.15.6 bn385.51.2%1.0%−0.9%+83% / +66%
ICLRICON plc15.6 bn70.02.5%2.8%+0.8%+10% / −24%
ABSIAbsci Corp1.8 bn—-57.7%-7,756.4%−38.2%+231% / +528%
OABIOmniab, Inc.755.6 m—-16.5%-108.1%−29.3%+186% / +18%
NRCNRC Health574.5 m95.9248.1%4.5%−4.0%+59% / −35%
ONMDOnemednet Corporation269.2 m——-584.2%+111.4%−75% / −89%
MXCTMaxCyte, Inc.143.5 m—-20.4%-114.8%−14.5%−21% / −71%
BIAFbioAffinity Technologies, Inc.23.7 m—-1,860.2%-257.3%−34.2%−87% / −100%
ISPCiSpecimen Inc.2.1 m—-968.5%-2,449.0%−79.2%−95% / −100%

1- and 3-year price returns: for INCY from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
84.25
Total return -31% · Per year -31%
148.27
Total return 21% · Per year 21%
222.42
Total return 81% · Per year 81%
3 years
99.64
Total return -19% · Per year -7%
195.54
Total return 59% · Per year 17%
319.43
Total return 160% · Per year 38%
5 years
117.84
Total return -4% · Per year -1%
257.88
Total return 110% · Per year 16%
458.75
Total return 273% · Per year 30%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 48.89
  • Net margin± 34.22
  • Annual revenue growth± 25.56
  • Annual dilution± 2.88

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

Incyte is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on hematology, oncology, and inflammation and autoimmunity. In the second quarter of 2026 total revenue was 1.67 billion USD 3 and total net sales 1.49 billion USD 3, up 40% year on year, though this includes a one-time non-cash benefit of 246 million USD tied to Opzelura 3. Full-year 2026 total net sales guidance was raised to 5,130-5,260 million USD 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has a diversified commercial portfolio in which every marketed product contributed to growth in the second quarter of 2026 3.
  • Cash position is solid, giving the company capacity to fund development and acquisitions 3.
  • The company holds exclusive global rights to tafasitamab and several Phase 3 programs 12.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on JAKAFI remains high, and revenue from it needs continued protection against competition 1.
  • Reported quarterly growth includes a one-time non-cash Opzelura effect, which makes comparison with earlier periods harder 3.
  • Operating expenses are rising sharply for 2026, including acquisition-related IPR&D charges, which weigh on reported results 3.

Opportunities

  • Planned launches and Phase 3 data for several products could expand revenue in 2027 and later 3.
  • Latarcibart, if it proves effective in Phase 3, could open a new treatment market for von Willebrand disease 3.
  • Approval of once-daily ruxolitinib XR could extend use of the product across more treatment scenarios 23.

Threats

  • Expiry of JAKAFI exclusivity could reduce revenue significantly unless offset by new products 1.
  • Pressure from insurers and price regulation could limit access to products and margins 1.
  • Failed clinical studies could delay or stop planned launches and weigh on future growth 12.

Risks

  • Dependence on JAKAFIhigh

    Revenue depends heavily on one product, and a drop in its sales could materially affect the business 1.

  • Patent exclusivity expiryhigh

    If JAKAFI exclusivity ends in 2028 without offsetting growth, revenue could fall quickly 1.

  • Pricing pressuremedium

    Government rules and payer negotiations could reduce prices and access to products 1.

  • Distributor concentrationmedium

    A limited number of specialty pharmacies and wholesalers handle a large share of sales, and losing one could affect results 1.

  • Clinical development riskmedium

    Clinical trial outcomes are uncertain, and failure of a key program could affect the growth strategy 12.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the 2026 and 2027 launches and approvals materialize, the company could diversify revenue beyond JAKAFI.
  • Growth in hematology and oncology sales could continue if demand stays solid across marketed products.
  • If latarcibart and the Phase 3 programs succeed, the company could gain an advantage in new therapeutic markets.

What would break the thesis

  • If JAKAFI exclusivity expiry is not offset by new products, revenue could fall significantly after 2028.
  • Reported quarterly growth includes a one-time benefit, so future results could be more modest than the second-quarter figures suggest.
  • High spending on research, development and acquisitions could reduce profitability if programs fail.

What to watch

  • Readouts from the ten clinical data events expected in the second half of the yearH2 2026
  • FDA decision on Monjuvi for first-line DLBCLQ1 2027
  • Updated net sales and operating expense guidanceQ3 2026
  • Opzelura performance after the one-time effect in the second quarterQ3 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

Incyte is headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware, with clinical and commercial operations in Morges (Switzerland), Tokyo and Montreal 1. The company focuses on three therapeutic areas: hematology, oncology, and inflammation and autoimmunity 1. Its approved portfolio includes JAKAFI, ICLUSIG, PEMAZYRE, OPZELURA, MONJUVI/MINJUVI, ZYNYZ and NIKTIMVO 1.

The pipeline includes INCA033989 for mutCALR-positive ET and MF, with a registrational Phase 3 study initiated in mid-2026 23. In 2026 the company acquired latarcibart, a Phase 3 candidate for von Willebrand disease 3. Revenue from JAKAFI depends heavily on a single product and its patent protection 1.

In the United States Incyte sells mainly through its own specialty sales force and through specialty pharmacies and wholesalers 1. Outside the US, it earns milestones and royalties from partners such as Novartis for JAKAVI 1.

Segments

Hematology

The hematology segment includes JAKAFI, the company's lead product, and Jakafi XR, approved in May 2026 3. Jakafi net sales were 817 million USD in the second quarter of 2026 3. Monjuvi/Minjuvi and Niktimvo complete the portfolio 13.

Oncology

The oncology segment includes PEMAZYRE, ZYNYZ and pipeline programs such as INCB161734 for pancreatic cancer 13. The combined hematology and oncology portfolio generated 222 million USD in net sales in the second quarter of 2026 3.

Inflammation and Autoimmunity

This segment's approved product is OPZELURA cream, indicated for atopic dermatitis and vitiligo 1. Opzelura sales grew sharply in the second quarter of 2026, but much of the increase is a one-time accounting effect 3.

Market context

The company operates in pharmaceutical markets where patient access depends on reimbursement by public and private payers 1. Price pressure from payers and pharmacy benefit managers limits access and margins 1. In the EU, reimbursement rules differ by country 1.

For JAKAFI the market picture is shaped by patent exclusivity expiring in 2028 1. If generic competition arrived earlier, the revenue impact could be significant 12.

Trends

  • Medicare Part D reformtailwind

    Changes under the Inflation Reduction Act reduced Medicare Part D sales allowances from 2025, which helped company revenue 1.

  • Pricing pressureheadwind

    Governments and payers are seeking price discounts and restricting access to drugs, which could affect revenue if the trend continues 1.

  • JAKAFI patent expiryheadwind

    Exclusivity for JAKAFI is expected to expire in 2028, and new product launches must offset this loss 1.

  • Expansion into new indicationsmixed

    Recent approvals for Monjuvi, Niktimvo and Zynyz suggest new indications may support growth beyond JAKAFI 3.

Competitive position

Incyte competes with other drug developers in hematology, oncology and dermatology, though the supplied sources do not detail all competitors. Competition includes generic versions after patent expiry and alternative therapies 1.

Partners such as Novartis and Eli Lilly commercialize some of the company's products outside the US or pay royalties, creating both collaboration and competitive dynamics 1.

  • NovartisNVS

    Partner that sells JAKAVI outside the US and TABRECTA globally 1.

  • Eli Lilly and CompanyLLY

    Partner that sells OLUMIANT worldwide 1.

  • Generic ruxolitinib manufacturers

    Generic makers could enter the market after ruxolitinib patents expire 1.

  • Other hematology and oncology developers

    Companies developing competing therapies for the same indications, not detailed in the sources 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 26 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 29 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / INCY · 10 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / INCY · 28 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / INCY · 28 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.