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olivLaw · US equity research

Medpace Holdings, Inc. MEDP

Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research · SIC 8731 · Vertical: Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research (SIC 8731)

656.77USD−1.01% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Medpace is a contract research organization (CRO) that runs full-service clinical trials for small and mid-sized biotech and pharma companies. In Q3 2026 net new awards exceeded revenue, management narrowed its revenue guidance range and approved a new buyback program.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) stock was 656.77 USD (−1.01% on the day), with market capitalisation 18.4 bn USD, P/E 36.4 on diluted EPS of 18.03 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.98, 52-week range 393.42–692.68 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 716.0 m USD (+8.5% YoY), net income of 137.5 m USD (+23.7% YoY), diluted EPS 4.84 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
18.4 bn USD
shares as of 16 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
36.4
Diluted EPS TTM 18.03 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
2.75%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.98
Volatility (1y) 46%
52-week range
393.42692.68

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
55.2
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
590.36 – 697.38
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.62 · band width 16.6%
SMA 50 / 200
621.39 / 530.06
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
13.81 / 14.25
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+5.8%−1.1%+6.9 pp—
3 months+11.7%−0.5%+12.2 pp—
6 months+53.9%+4.4%+49.5 pp—
Year to date+16.9%+12.3%+4.6 pp—
1 year+10.5%+13.5%−3.1 pp+14.7%
3 years+139.5%+76.4%+63.1 pp−23.9%
5 years+190.8%+63.7%+127.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−36.6%
21 Jan 2026 → 23 Apr 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−42.9%
27 Dec 2021 → 27 Apr 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+23.8%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
716.0 m USD
+8.5% YoY
Net income
137.5 m USD
+23.7% YoY
Diluted EPS
4.84
+25.4% YoY
net / operating
19.2% / 23.1%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue536.6 m558.6 m603.3 m659.9 m708.5 m706.6 m707.3 m716.0 m
SG&A45.4 m57.9 m46.7 m48.1 m44.9 m47.9 m48.1 m51.8 m
Operating income125.4 m113.5 m126.3 m141.8 m153.3 m141.5 m146.8 m165.5 m
Pre-tax income133.9 m118.2 m124.5 m142.8 m156.8 m147.6 m151.7 m170.9 m
Income tax16.9 m3.6 m34.3 m31.7 m21.7 m23.7 m30.3 m33.4 m
Net income117.0 m114.6 m90.3 m111.1 m135.1 m123.9 m121.4 m137.5 m
Diluted EPS3.67 ≈3.673.103.864.66 ≈4.284.254.84
Operating cash flow190.7 m125.8 m148.5 m ≈246.2 m ≈192.7 m151.8 m162.0 m ≈216.6 m ≈
Capex7.6 m10.0 m6.1 m ≈10.7 m ≈4.5 m6.8 m23.9 m ≈20.2 m ≈
Share repurchases169.9 m371.9 m540.9 m ≈4.6 m ≈00294.8 m ≈0 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 68 percentile of its own 41-quarter history (min 23.3, median 33.1, max 248.8; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue704.6 m861.0 m925.9 m1.1 bn1.5 bn1.9 bn2.1 bn2.5 bn
Revenue YoY+61.5%+22.2%+7.5%+23.4%+27.8%+29.2%+11.8%+20.0%
Net income73.2 m100.4 m145.4 m181.8 m245.4 m282.8 m404.4 m451.1 m
Net income YoY+87.1%+37.2%+44.7%+25.1%+34.9%+15.3%+43.0%+11.6%
Diluted EPS1.972.673.844.817.288.8812.6315.28
Diluted EPS YoY+101.0%+35.5%+43.8%+25.3%+51.4%+22.0%+42.2%+21.0%
net %10.4%11.7%15.7%15.9%16.8%15.0%19.2%17.8%
Free cash flow140.6 m184.0 m227.3 m235.1 m351.2 m396.7 m572.3 m681.9 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
497.0 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
459.1 m USD
Total assets
2.0 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
0.74x
ROE
70.2%
ROA
22.1%
FCF margin
26.9%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.9 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
161.4 m
2024
180.2 m
2025
197.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
336.8 m
2024
446.9 m
2025
534.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
335.7 m
2024
475.9 m
2025
542.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
52.9 m
2024
71.5 m
2025
91.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
282.8 m
2024
404.4 m
2025
451.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
8.88
2024
12.63
2025
15.28

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
31.8 m
2024
32.0 m
2025
29.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
245.4 m
2024
669.4 m
2025
497.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
593.8 m
2024
1.0 bn
2025
989.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
120.6 m
2024
123.6 m
2025
131.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
662.4 m
2024
662.4 m
2025
662.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
35.8 m
2024
34.4 m
2025
33.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.7 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
31.9 m
2024
32.5 m
2025
28.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
0
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2024verified

Current liabilities
2023
925.1 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
559.0 m †
2024
825.5 m †
2025
459.1 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
433.4 m
2024
608.8 m
2025
713.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
36.6 m
2024
36.5 m
2025
31.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
396.7 m ≈
2024
572.3 m ≈
2025
681.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-34.6 m
2024
-28.3 m
2025
-31.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-182.6 m
2024
-154.0 m
2025
-860.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
144.0 m
2024
169.9 m
2025
917.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
20.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
20.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
22.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
19.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
11.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
22.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
25.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
21.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
28.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
31.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
19.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
21.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
18.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
23.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
117.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
25.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
75.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
723.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
55.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
667.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
128.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
18.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
35.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
36.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
2.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
31.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
6.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
27.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
1.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

656.77 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 18.4 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
18.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
36.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
31.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
117.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
18.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
20.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

25/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 16 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 22 Oct 2026
verified 1439derived 101

Score by group

58% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
877.05
USD per share
Mid
1,176.36
USD per share
High
1,219.65
USD per share
Price: 656.77 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 79.1% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 44.2% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 877.05 – 1,219.65 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E877.05 – 1,219.65 (Mid 1,176.36)
    3 companies used · median multiple 65.2x · quartiles 48.6x – 67.6x
    ICLR, INCY, IQV
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research (SIC 8731)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality18.2%100 (vs peers)11%
FCF conversion · Quality128.9%100 (on a fixed band)11%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth20.1%100 (on a fixed band)14%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth28.0%100 (on a fixed band)14%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.8x3 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation36.4x80 (vs peers)18%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation3.6%45 (on a fixed band)14%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns1.6%23 (on a fixed band)11%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial3/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial23/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation65/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 20.0%; net margin 18.2%; ROE 117.9%.

The estimated value range is 877.05–1,219.65 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1,176.36 USD, the price of 656.77 USD leaves a potential of 79.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 44.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 18.2%
  • FCF conversion: 128.9%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 20.1%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 28.0%
  • P/E (TTM): 36.4x
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Current ratio: 0.8x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.6%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research (SIC 8731) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 11 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
36.4x
vertical median 70.0x
below median (−48.0%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 24.6x
P/S
6.5x
vertical median 4.2x
above median (+55.4%)
P/B
31.4x
vertical median 4.4x
above median (+607.7%)
ROE
117.9%
vertical median -7.6%
above median
Net margin
18.2%
vertical median -108.1%
above median
EBIT margin
21.4%
vertical median -115.9%
above median
Revenue YoY
20.0%
vertical median -4.0%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 3.4x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
IQVIqvia Holdings Inc.43.5 bn32.021.7%8.1%+5.9%+15% / +23%
INCYIncyte Corporation25.0 bn65.27.8%6.7%+21.2%+18% / +126%
MEDPMedpace Holdings, Inc.18.4 bn36.4117.9%18.2%+20.0%+10% / +140%
CRLCharles River Laboratories International, Inc.15.6 bn385.51.2%1.0%−0.9%+83% / +66%
ICLRICON plc15.6 bn70.02.5%2.8%+0.8%+10% / −24%
ABSIAbsci Corp1.8 bn—-57.7%-7,756.4%−38.2%+231% / +528%
OABIOmniab, Inc.755.6 m—-16.5%-108.1%−29.3%+186% / +18%
NRCNRC Health574.5 m95.9248.1%4.5%−4.0%+59% / −35%
ONMDOnemednet Corporation269.2 m——-584.2%+111.4%−75% / −89%
MXCTMaxCyte, Inc.143.5 m—-20.4%-114.8%−14.5%−21% / −71%
BIAFbioAffinity Technologies, Inc.23.7 m—-1,860.2%-257.3%−34.2%−87% / −100%
ISPCiSpecimen Inc.2.1 m—-968.5%-2,449.0%−79.2%−95% / −100%

1- and 3-year price returns: for MEDP from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
440.60
Total return -33% · Per year -33%
775.40
Total return 18% · Per year 18%
1,163.09
Total return 77% · Per year 77%
3 years
522.63
Total return -20% · Per year -7%
1,025.46
Total return 56% · Per year 16%
1,674.86
Total return 155% · Per year 37%
5 years
619.92
Total return -6% · Per year -1%
1,356.17
Total return 106% · Per year 16%
2,411.79
Total return 267% · Per year 30%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 256.37
  • Net margin± 179.46
  • Annual revenue growth± 133.84
  • Annual dilution± 15.08

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 26 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-sonnet-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 21 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (22 Oct 2026).

In brief

Medpace is a contract research organization (CRO) that runs full-service clinical trials for small and mid-sized biotech and pharma companies. In Q3 2026 net new awards exceeded revenue, management narrowed its revenue guidance range and approved a new buyback program 12.

SWOT

Strengths

  • EBITDA margin of 24.0% in Q3 2026 1.
  • Backlog of 3,167.2 million USD, with visibility across several quarters 1.
  • Cash of 705.3 million USD and a new 1.0 bn USD buyback program 1.

Weaknesses

  • Concentration in small and mid-sized biotech clients, which are sensitive to funding.
  • Backlog can shrink through cancellations, affecting future revenue.
  • The stock is often valued richly versus the sector, leaving little room for disappointment.

Opportunities

  • A recovery in biotech funding.
  • Expansion into new therapeutic areas and big pharma clients.
  • Automation and AI in trial planning and monitoring.

Threats

  • Another funding drought for biotech.
  • Waves of cancelled or delayed trials.
  • Price pressure from larger CROs.
  • New drug-pricing rules that would cut R&D budgets.

Risks

  • Trial cancellationshigh

    Cancellations reduce backlog and future revenue; a new wave could appear if client funding weakens 4.

  • Dependence on biotech fundinghigh

    Small clients rely on capital markets to pay for trials.

  • Backlog conversionmedium

    The 23.8% conversion rate shows how fast awards turn into revenue; a slowdown would delay growth 1.

  • Concentration in a few therapeutic areasmedium

    Q4 2025 cancellations were slightly skewed toward the metabolic area 4; concentrated exposure amplifies such episodes.

  • Capital allocationlow

    The 1.0 bn USD buyback is funded from cash; if the cycle turned, flexibility would shrink 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Awards stay above revenue and backlog keeps growing 1.
  • Cancellations stay below the Q4 2025 level.
  • Biotech funding holds or improves.
  • EBITDA margin holds near 24.0% 1.

What would break the thesis

  • Awards fall below revenue for several quarters in a row.
  • Cancellations return to or exceed the Q4 2025 level.
  • Biotech funding tightens.
  • Rising staff costs compress margin.

What to watch

  • Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance (revenue, EBITDA)February 2027
  • Net new awards and book-to-billQ4 2026
  • Cancellation levelQ4 2026
  • Pace of repurchases under the new programQ4 2026 - 2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 26 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-sonnet-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 21 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (22 Oct 2026).

The business

Medpace provides full-service clinical development: trial design, site management, monitoring, biostatistics, central labs and reporting. Clients are mainly small and mid-sized biotechs, often without an in-house clinical department.

Revenue is recognized over the course of trials, from backlog (signed but unexecuted awards). Backlog of 3,167.2 million USD at September 30, 2026 gives medium-term visibility 1.

Segments

Full-service clinical development

Nearly all activity: early- and late-phase trials, with a focus on oncology, metabolic disease, cardiology and other therapeutic areas.

Central laboratories

In-house labs that process trial samples and support quality control and execution speed.

Market context

The CRO market depends on pharma R&D spending and, especially for Medpace, on biotech funding: when capital is easy to raise, new trials appear; when it tightens, awards are delayed or cancelled.

The indicators to follow are net new awards, the book-to-bill ratio, backlog and cancellations. In Q4 2025 backlog cancellations reached their highest level in over a year and lowered the ratio that quarter; management said it saw no reason for that level to continue 4.

Trends

  • Awards above revenuetailwind

    Net new awards were 873.4 million USD in Q3 2026 against revenue of 716.0 million USD, a ratio of about 1.22 (own calculation) 1.

  • Growing backlogtailwind

    Backlog rose 5.6% to 3,167.2 million USD, and the conversion rate was 23.8% 1.

  • Biotech fundingmixed

    A more open capital market for biotechs supports new trials; a closed market would slow awards with a lag of a few quarters.

  • Cancellationsheadwind

    Cancellations in Q4 2025 were the highest in over a year, spread across projects and slightly skewed toward the metabolic area, according to management; they remain the main risk indicator for backlog 4.

  • Narrowed guidancemixed

    2026 revenue guidance is now 2.835 to 2.855 bn USD 1, narrowed from 2.805 to 2.885 bn USD in July with the same midpoint 2, and above the 2.755 to 2.855 bn USD given in February 3.

Competitive position

Medpace competes with large, broad-portfolio CROs and with smaller firms. It positions itself on full-service work for small and mid-sized clients, with a centralized execution model and in-house labs.

EBITDA margin rose to 24.0% in Q3 2026 from 22.5% a year earlier, a sign of cost discipline 1.

  • IQVIAIQV

    Largest CRO, with added data and technology services.

  • ICONICLR

    Large global CRO with big pharma and biotech clients.

  • FortreaFTRE

    CRO spun off from Labcorp, in the middle of a reorganization.

  • Charles River LaboratoriesCRL

    Preclinical and research services, partly overlapping.

  • Parexel and Syneos Health

    Large unlisted CROs.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 26 Aug 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 22 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 8-K, comunicatul de rezultate Q3 2026 · SEC / Medpace · 21 Oct 2026
  2. [2] Form 8-K, comunicatul de rezultate Q2 2026 · SEC / Medpace · 22 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Rezultate trimestrul IV și anul 2025, ghidaj 2026 (Form 8-K, anexa 99.1) · SEC / Medpace · 09 Feb 2026
  4. [4] Medpace Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript · MarketBeat · 10 Feb 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.