olivLaw · US equity research
ioneer Ltd IONR
Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) · SIC 1400 · Vertical: Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (SIC 1400)
ioneer Ltd is developing the Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron mine and processing project in Nevada, United States, and has not yet generated sales revenue. For a company not yet in commercial production, the central issue is funding: a US$996 million DOE loan, an estimated development cost of US$1683.2 million and a February 2026 equity raise of about US$50 million.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, ioneer Ltd (IONR) stock was 2.68 USD (+3.08% on the day), with market capitalisation 7.2 bn USD, beta 0.99, 52-week range 2.55–6.39 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 42.7
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.57 – 2.96
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.28 · band width 14.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.96 / 3.73
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.09 / -0.09
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −10.1% | −1.1% | −9.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −24.3% | −0.5% | −23.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −33.8% | +4.4% | −38.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −44.2% | +12.3% | −56.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −34.3% | +13.5% | −47.9 pp | −11.5% |
| 3 years | −42.2% | +76.4% | −118.7 pp | +29.6% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | unavailable | -14.0 m | -8.5 m | -6.4 m | -7.8 m | -9.6 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | -0.80 | -0.42 | -0.30 | -0.36 | -0.41 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | -4.9 m | -9.3 m | -8.7 m | -7.2 m | -6.8 m |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Jun 2025
- Cash
- 25.1 m USD
- Financial debt
- 0 USD
- Net debt
- -25.1 m USD
- Equity
- 230.3 m USD
- Total assets
- 233.5 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- 8.49x
- ROE
- -4.3%
- ROA
- -4.2%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Operating income | -6.7 m | -12.0 m | -9.7 m | -9.2 m | -10.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 176.0 k | 173.0 k | 52.0 k | 260.0 k | 277.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| EBITDA | -6.5 m ≈ | -11.8 m ≈ | -9.6 m ≈ | -9.0 m ≈ | -9.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025derived |
| Interest expense | 7.6 m | 17.0 k | 16.0 k | 11.0 k | 11.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | -14.0 m | -8.5 m | -6.4 m | -7.8 m | -9.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Income tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Net income | -14.0 m | -8.5 m | -6.4 m | -7.8 m | -9.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.80 | -0.42 | -0.30 | -0.36 | -0.41 | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 62.5 m | 94.2 m | 52.7 m | 35.7 m | 25.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Receivables | 253.0 k | 141.0 k | 353.0 k | 324.0 k | 192.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Current assets | 62.7 m | 94.3 m | 53.1 m | 36.1 m | 25.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.0 k | 0 | 522.0 k | 406.0 k | 289.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Total assets | 149.2 m | 213.2 m | 206.3 m | 224.5 m | 233.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 5.2 m | 9.0 m | 8.5 m | 4.5 m | 2.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 0 | 0 | 1.2 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 5.4 m | 9.5 m | 8.8 m | 6.2 m | 3.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 5.5 m | 9.5 m | 8.9 m | 6.3 m | 3.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Equity | 143.7 m | 203.7 m | 197.4 m | 218.2 m | 230.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -4.8 m | -9.3 m | -8.1 m | -7.2 m | -6.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Capex | 5.0 k | 0 | 601.0 k | 2.0 k | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | -4.9 m ≈ | -9.3 m ≈ | -8.7 m ≈ | -7.2 m ≈ | -6.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -17.7 m | -28.4 m | -32.5 m | -35.4 m | -13.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | 58.7 m | 75.4 m | -225.0 k | 25.5 m | 10.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Oct 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 29.2% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 7.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
29% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 29.2% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -4.4% | 18 (vs peers) | 36% |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -926.9x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 21% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 8.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -0.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 29% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial18/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
IONEER LTD (IONR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 0 USD in 2025; ROE -4.3%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 29.2% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 8.5x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -4.4%
- Interest coverage: -926.9x
- FCF yield: -0.1%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (SIC 1400) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 18 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc. | 39.6 bn | 14.7 | 16.8% | 31.9% | +8.6% | −11% / +20% |
| VMCVulcan Materials Company | 38.2 bn | 35.2 | 12.9% | 13.8% | +7.1% | +0% / +39% |
| SQMChemical & Mining Co Of Chile Inc | 15.1 bn | 24.0 | 14.3% | 15.1% | −39.4% | −11% / +15% |
| HLHecla Mining Company | 10.0 bn | 26.7 | 14.5% | 21.0% | +53.0% | −11% / +200% |
| IONRIoneer Ltd | 7.2 bn | — | -4.3% | — | unavailable | −34% / −42% |
| USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals Inc | 3.5 bn | 26.6 | 20.0% | 35.1% | +17.3% | +1% / +191% |
| KNFKnife River Corporation | 3.5 bn | 26.3 | 8.0% | 4.0% | +8.5% | −17% / +4% |
| TTAMTitan America SA | 2.6 bn | 14.2 | 20.8% | 11.1% | +1.8% | −12% / unavailable |
| UUUUEnergy Fuels Inc. | 1.9 bn | — | -14.1% | -100.0% | −15.6% | −50% / −10% |
| LEUCentrus Energy Corp | 1.3 bn | 42.2 | 8.1% | 10.2% | +1.5% | −64% / +85% |
| CMPCompass Minerals International, Inc. | 976.5 m | 54.2 | 7.2% | 1.4% | +11.3% | +22% / −4% |
| GAUGaliano Gold Inc. | 540.4 m | — | -12.7% | -6.5% | +93.6% | −14% / +220% |
| IPIIntrepid Potash, Inc. | 418.0 m | 17.1 | 4.8% | 8.0% | +17.1% | +24% / +52% |
| SNDSmart Sand, Inc. | 185.3 m | 16.9 | 4.4% | 2.7% | +6.0% | +48% / +124% |
| ABATAmerican Battery Technology Company | 183.9 m | — | -74.5% | -337.5% | +406.8% | −66% / −70% |
| ATLXAtlas Lithium Corporation | 52.1 m | — | -103.0% | -33,954.4% | −86.1% | −65% / −93% |
| LGOLargo Inc. | 27.7 m | — | -46.4% | -62.3% | −12.0% | −67% / −84% |
| TECKTeck Resources Limited | — | — | 5.5% | 13.0% | +18.7% | +50% / +71% |
| ELVRElevra Lithium Limited | — | — | -54.2% | -131.8% | +11.2% | −40% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for IONR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (27 Oct 2026), 6-K (13 Aug 2026), 6-K (30 Jul 2026), 6-K (08 Jul 2026), 6-K (26 Jun 2026).
In brief
ioneer Ltd is developing the Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron mine and processing project in Nevada, United States, and has not yet generated sales revenue. For a company not yet in commercial production, the central issue is funding: a US$996 million DOE loan, an estimated development cost of US$1683.2 million and a February 2026 equity raise of about US$50 million. 1
SWOT
Strengths
- A project with large resources and reserves, improved economics in 2025, and contracted offtake covering a major part of early-year production. 1
- A closed DOE loan and advanced detailed engineering, which reduce part of the execution risk for the project. 1
- A Nevada location, which the company regards as a tier-one jurisdiction with easy access to US and Asian markets. 1
Weaknesses
- The company has no sales revenue and depends entirely on equity issuances for funding. 1
- Accumulated losses are high relative to available cash, and the company states it will need substantial additional funds. 1
- A history of strategic partner withdrawal, including the terminated joint venture with Sibanye-Stillwater. 1
Opportunities
- If lithium and boron demand rises, the project could become a domestic source of critical materials for the US. 1
- A sale of a strategic stake in the project could bring additional capital and reduce reliance on equity issuances. 1
- Process optimisations such as reduced vat leach retention time could improve project economics. 1
Risks
- Additional fundinghigh
The company states it cannot assure that it will obtain sufficient cash on favorable terms to fully develop the project. 1
- Conditions precedent to the DOE loanhigh
The company cannot assure it will meet all conditions precedent to first draw under the DOE loan. 1
- Cost inflationmedium
Cost estimates could increase before the final investment decision, which could affect returns. 1
- Limited operating historymedium
The company has a limited operating history, which makes its future performance difficult to evaluate. 1
- Legal challenge to permitsmedium
Environmental challenges and appeals against approvals could delay the project, although the company considers them not relevant to its construction timetable. 1
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the project is financed and enters construction, the company could become a significant lithium and boron producer, with offtake agreements already signed for most early-year production. 1
- Growth in resources and reserves, together with improved project economics in 2025, could support higher asset value once financing and permit risks are resolved. 1
- Boron's inclusion on the US critical minerals list could raise interest in a domestic supplier. 1
What would break the thesis
- The company has no revenue, and funding depends on capital markets and strategic partners, one of which has already withdrawn. 1
- The estimated development cost could rise substantially, and the company still lacks a significant part of the required funding. 1
- If permit appeals or loan conditions change, the project timeline could be postponed. 1
What to watch
- Progress of the strategic partnering process and sale of a stake in the project2026
- Final investment decision (FID) and updated cost estimate2026
- Outcome of the appeal filed with the Ninth Circuit2026
- Satisfaction of conditions precedent for first draw under the DOE loannext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (27 Oct 2026), 6-K (13 Aug 2026), 6-K (30 Jul 2026), 6-K (08 Jul 2026), 6-K (26 Jun 2026).
The business
ioneer Ltd's primary business is developing a lithium-boron mine and processing facility, known as the Rhyolite Ridge Project, in Esmeralda County, Nevada, on public land administered by the BLM. The company currently holds a 100% interest in the project. 1 The company is at development stage and has not yet realized revenues from the sale of lithium or boron. It relies mainly on issuances of ordinary shares to finance operations rather than on operating cash flows. 1 The stated plan is to become a low-cost and globally significant producer of both lithium and boron, subject to permits, financing and a final investment decision (FID). 1
Segments
Lithium
Lithium as lithium carbonate, with offtake agreements with EcoPro Innovation, Ford and PPES. Contracted volumes are 7000 tpa for EcoPro and Ford and 4000 tpa for PPES, and the agreements cover about 90% of expected first three years of production. 1
Boron
Boric acid, for which the company has signed offtake and distribution agreements. The company anticipates boric acid will account for about 25% of Project revenue. 1
Market context
The company presents boron as a critical material: in November 2025 the U.S. Department of Interior updated the Final 2025 List of Critical Minerals to include boron. The project relies on access to US and Asian markets, which the sources describe as easily reachable from Nevada. 1 Resource estimates rose to 510 million tonnes and ore reserves to 247 million tonnes, but these figures do not mean product will be sold. Conversion into revenue depends on financing, permits and contracts. 1
Trends
- Government funding and loan termsmixed
The DOE loan closed in January 2025, but the company warns that any reduction in federal funding or change in terms could affect operational capability. This could be supportive but also a source of uncertainty. 1
- Construction cost inflation in miningheadwind
The company anticipates construction cost inflation across the global mining industry could raise project costs before FID, particularly for labor, fuel and logistics. 1
- Lithium demand and critical materialstailwind
The sources describe expectations of a lithium demand increase and the inclusion of boron on the U.S. critical minerals list, which could support interest in the project if demand materialises. 1
- Permit developments and environmental litigationmixed
A federal court upheld the approval of the mine plan, but plaintiffs have appealed. The company states the appeal is not expected to delay the start of construction. 1
Competitive position
The analysed sources do not name direct competitors and contain no comparative cost or market share analysis. The company only states that the project aims to be a low-cost producer and that its Nevada location offers advantage near US and Asian markets. 1
- Former development partner (Sibanye-Stillwater)
Sibanye-Stillwater announced in February 2025 that it would not proceed with the proposed joint venture for the project; the source does not describe it as a direct competitor.
- Dragonfly Energy Holdings Corp.
Nevada-based energy storage company, a lithium buyer under an offtake agreement, more a commercial partner than a competitor.
- Asian lithium carbonate buyers and battery makers (EcoPro Innovation, PPES)
These parties appear in the source as contracted buyers, not as producing competitors; the source gives no production comparison.
- Boron and boric acid producers (Jinma and associated distributors)
The source mentions supply agreements with these partners; no comparative market share data is given.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)08 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)23 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)21 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Apr 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)29 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / ioneer Ltd · 29 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.