olivLaw · US equity research
Lumentum Holdings Inc. LITE
Communications Equipment, NEC · SIC 3669 · Vertical: Communications Equipment, NEC (SIC 3669)
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) is a global leader in optical and photonic technologies, with net revenue of $3.01 billion in fiscal 2026. Demand from AI and cloud data centers has outpaced current supply, and first-quarter fiscal 2027 guidance points to revenue between $1.225 and $1.275 billion. The company runs one integrated segment and has notable customer concentration, which could matter if demand shifts.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 03 Nov 2026, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) stock was 680.16 USD (−0.62% on the day), with market capitalisation 61.7 bn USD, beta 2.61, 52-week range 188.36–1,133.40 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 1.3 bn USD (+136.5% YoY), net income of 360.3 m USD (+8,478.6% YoY), diluted EPS 3.54 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 34.4
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 640.28 – 1,117.31
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.08 · band width 54.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 916.26 / 804.66
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -50.05 / -32.47
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −37.3% | −2.0% | −35.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −19.9% | −2.2% | −17.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −31.6% | +4.3% | −35.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +84.5% | +10.6% | +74.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +240.8% | +10.5% | +230.3 pp | −42.9% |
| 3 years | +1,490.6% | +73.7% | +1,417.0 pp | +22.4% |
| 5 years | +669.9% | +61.7% | +608.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 26 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 402.2 m | 425.2 m | 480.7 m | 533.8 m | 665.5 m | 808.4 m | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 281.2 m | 283.7 m | 301.5 m | 332.8 m | 405.8 m | 432.1 m | 509.8 m | 599.5 m |
| Gross profit | 99.6 m | 122.5 m | 159.9 m | 181.5 m | 240.1 m | 357.0 m | 477.3 m | 644.0 m |
| Research & development | 74.2 m | 75.9 m | 79.5 m | 81.4 m | 80.1 m | 90.6 m | 104.4 m | 191.8 m |
| SG&A | 76.3 m | 112.0 m | 83.6 m | 85.1 m | 96.1 m | 90.8 m | 91.2 m | 99.3 m |
| Operating income | -51.6 m | -37.7 m | -8.4 m | 6.7 m | 64.3 m | 174.5 m | 279.3 m | 359.8 m |
| Interest expense | 5.6 m | 5.7 m | 5.4 m | 5.7 m | 6.3 m | 6.2 m | 3.6 m | 2.4 m |
| Income tax | 18.6 m | 4.9 m | -224.7 m | 1.0 m | 18.3 m | 39.6 m | -296.6 m | 10.0 m |
| Net income | -60.9 m | -44.1 m | 213.3 m | 4.2 m | 78.2 m | 144.2 m | -7.2 bn | 360.3 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.88 | -0.64 | 2.96 ≈ | 0.05 | 0.89 | 1.50 | -197.84 ≈ | 3.54 |
| Operating cash flow | 24.3 m ≈ | -1.6 m ≈ | 64.0 m | 57.9 m | 126.7 m ≈ | 203.8 m ≈ | 363.0 m | 267.7 m |
| Capex | 40.2 m ≈ | 62.8 m ≈ | 53.9 m | 76.2 m | 83.6 m ≈ | 124.7 m ≈ | 166.8 m | 229.8 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 3.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +25.5% | +7.2% | +3.8% | −1.7% | +3.2% | −23.1% | +21.0% | +83.2% |
| Net income | -36.4 m | 135.5 m | 397.3 m | 198.9 m | -131.6 m | -546.5 m | 25.9 m | -6.9 bn |
| Net income YoY | −114.7% | unavailable | +193.2% | −49.9% | −166.2% | unavailable | unavailable | −26,876.4% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.54 | 1.75 | 5.07 | 2.68 | -1.93 | -8.12 | 0.37 | -92.96 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −114.1% | unavailable | +189.7% | −47.1% | −172.0% | unavailable | unavailable | −25,224.3% |
| net % | -2.3% | 8.1% | 22.8% | 11.6% | -7.4% | -40.2% | 1.6% | -230.1% |
| Free cash flow | 164.1 m | 438.3 m | 653.9 m | 368.1 m | 51.3 m | -108.3 m | -104.7 m | 300.1 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 27 Jun 2026
- Cash
- 2.0 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 1.6 bn USD
- Net debt
- -406.1 m USD
- Equity
- 4.6 bn USD
- Total assets
- 7.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.35x
- Current ratio
- 1.68x
- ROE
- -240.0%
- ROA
- -120.3%
- FCF margin
- 10.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 898.0 m | 861.1 m | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 783.1 m | 788.6 m | 569.0 m | 251.5 m | 459.9 m | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Research & development | 214.5 m | 220.7 m | 307.8 m | 302.2 m | 303.9 m | 356.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| SG&A | 241.4 m | 265.7 m | 348.8 m | 310.7 m | 348.2 m | 363.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Operating income | 527.0 m | 303.3 m | -115.7 m | -434.0 m | -180.1 m | 524.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 66.7 m | 80.2 m | 35.5 m | 33.8 m | 22.2 m | 21.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Income tax | 65.8 m | 36.2 m | 29.2 m | 140.8 m | -198.0 m | -237.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Net income | 397.3 m | 198.9 m | -131.6 m | -546.5 m | 25.9 m | -6.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 5.07 | 2.68 | -1.93 | -8.12 | 0.37 | -92.96 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 78.4 m | 74.2 m | 68.3 m | 67.3 m | 69.6 m | 74.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 774.3 m | 1.3 bn | 859.0 m | 436.7 m | 520.7 m | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified |
| Inventories | 196.4 m | 250.1 m | 408.6 m | 398.4 m | 470.1 m | 691.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 360.5 m | 489.5 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Nov 2023verified |
| Goodwill | 368.9 m | 368.9 m | 695.1 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 241.2 m | 155.7 m | 459.2 m | 617.5 m | 465.1 m | 326.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Total assets | 3.6 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.6 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.2 bn | 7.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 116.9 m | 156.7 m | 169.4 m | 126.3 m | 225.2 m | 567.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 409.9 m | — | 0 | 10.6 m | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | — | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 40.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 664.6 m | 716.5 m | 633.8 m | 269.3 m | 392.8 m | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.6 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.0 bn † | 1.9 bn † | 1.4 bn † | 957.3 m † | 1.1 bn † | 4.6 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 738.7 m | 459.3 m | 179.8 m | 24.7 m | 126.3 m | 751.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Capex | 84.8 m | 91.2 m | 128.5 m | 133.0 m | 231.0 m | 451.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 653.9 m ≈ | 368.1 m ≈ | 51.3 m ≈ | -108.3 m ≈ | -104.7 m ≈ | 300.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 1.0 m | -226.3 m | -874.0 m | -114.3 m | -84.1 m | -785.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -263.4 m | 282.9 m | 263.0 m | -332.7 m | 41.8 m | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Aug 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Aug 2021verified |
| Share repurchases | 236.0 m | 543.9 m | 175.6 m | 0 | 0 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 43 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 61.7 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet48
- Quality48
- Valuation5
- Growth82
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 46.43 – 103.43 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)66.92 – 103.43 (Mid 81.12)WACC 9.2% · starting FCFF 371.8 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/Sales46.43 – 56.01 (Mid 49.16)5 companies used · median multiple 1.2x · quartiles 1.2x – 1.4xAIOT, KSCP, MTEK, REKR, TBCH
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 43/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | 45.9% | 15 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | 23.5% | 100 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF margin · Quality | 9.5% | 38 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 19.5% | 78 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | 83.2% | 91 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.6x | 48 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | 16.5x | 0 (vs peers) | 19% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 0.6% | 12 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial48/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Growth82/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality48/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
- Valuation5/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-09-26.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.0 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 83.2%; net margin -175.8%; ROE -245.8%.
The estimated value range is 56.67–79.72 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 65.14 USD, the price of 680.16 USD leaves a potential of -90.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -944.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 43/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- EBIT margin: 23.5%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 19.5%
- Revenue growth (YoY): 83.2%
What contradicts it
- Gross margin: 45.9%
- EV/Sales: 16.5x
- FCF yield: 0.6%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Communications Equipment, NEC (SIC 3669) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 11 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITELumentum Holdings Inc. | 61.7 bn | — | -245.8% | -175.8% | +83.2% | +241% / +1,491% |
| ESEEsco Technologies Inc. | 6.2 bn | 19.8 | 21.4% | 24.4% | +19.2% | +13% / +128% |
| NSSCNapco Security Technologies, Inc | 1.1 bn | 25.9 | 23.4% | 21.6% | +11.4% | −21% / +4% |
| AIOTPowerfleet, Inc. | 381.2 m | — | -4.0% | -4.2% | +22.4% | −43% / +22% |
| TBCHTurtle Beach Corporation | 303.7 m | — | -3.2% | -1.1% | −14.2% | +22% / +50% |
| INSGInseego Corp. | 79.3 m | 25.3 | — | -6.4% | −13.1% | −56% / +120% |
| AMPGAmplitech Group, Inc. | 74.5 m | — | -19.4% | -33.4% | +165.0% | −25% / +56% |
| REKRRekor Systems, Inc. | 49.3 m | — | -62.8% | -43.8% | +5.3% | −80% / −87% |
| KSCPKnightscope, Inc. | 34.7 m | — | -201.3% | -217.3% | +4.9% | −91% / −98% |
| SNTSenstar Technologies Corporation | 33.7 m | 10.3 | 8.0% | 8.8% | +1.7% | −63% / +28% |
| UTSIUTStarcom Holdings Corp. | 19.2 m | — | -19.5% | -88.5% | −17.5% | −16% / −42% |
| MTEKMaris-Tech Ltd. | 2.1 m | — | -168.6% | -403.3% | −77.9% | −81% / −75% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LITE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) is a global leader in optical and photonic technologies, with net revenue of $3.01 billion in fiscal 2026 2. Demand from AI and cloud data centers has outpaced current supply, and first-quarter fiscal 2027 guidance points to revenue between $1.225 and $1.275 billion 2. The company runs one integrated segment and has notable customer concentration, which could matter if demand shifts.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading position in optical and photonic technologies, with close relationships with major cloud and AI customers 1.
- Improving margins and cash generation, with substantial liquidity at the end of fiscal 2026 2.
- Broad portfolio from components to complete systems, allowing integrated solutions for customers 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- Expansion into in-rack connectivity and integrated optics as optical links move closer to servers 2.
- Growing AI workloads and cloud data center expansion could sustain long-term demand 1.
- Industrial and 3D sensing markets, including automotive, could add opportunities depending on their development 1.
Risks
- Customer concentrationhigh
A small number of customers account for a large share of revenue, and losing or reducing orders from them could affect results 1.
- Tariffs and export controlshigh
Trade measures between the United States and China could raise costs and limit sales in certain regions 1.
- Limited supplymedium
Reliance on few suppliers for components and materials can lead to production delays if problems arise 1.
- Convertible debt and dilutionmedium
Conversion of certain convertible notes produced a large non-cash loss and could dilute shareholders if further tranches convert 12.
- Cyclical demandmedium
Customers may reduce or delay orders when adjusting inventories, which can cause sudden revenue swings 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for optical connectivity in AI data centers keeps growing, the company could see sustained expansion in revenue and margins 12.
- First-quarter fiscal 2027 guidance points to acceleration ahead of earlier plans, which could support growth in the following period 2.
- A broad portfolio from components to complete systems could let the company capture more value as optical architectures expand 1.
What would break the thesis
- If major customers reduce orders or switch suppliers, revenue could drop quickly given the current concentration 1.
- Tariffs and trade restrictions could raise costs and compress margins if they cannot be passed on to customers 1.
- If competing producers, including those in China, gain share, pricing pressure could increase 1.
What to watch
- Delivery against first-quarter revenue and margin guidanceQ1 2027
- Impact of tariffs and trade investigations on costs2027
- Progress of manufacturing capacity and adoption of new optical products2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Lumentum makes optical and photonic components (laser chips, subassemblies, wavelength management subsystems) and complete systems (optical modules, optical circuit switches, industrial lasers). Its products support high-capacity connectivity for cloud, AI/ML, data center interconnect and telecom networks, as well as precision industrial processing and 3D sensing in consumer electronics 1. Headquarters are in San Jose, California, with manufacturing in North America, Asia-Pacific and Europe 1. From fiscal 2026 the company is managed as a single integrated enterprise with no separate operating segments 1.
Revenue mix shows strong growth: in fiscal 2026 Components generated $2.0 billion and Systems $1.0 billion, versus $1.1 billion and $0.5 billion in fiscal 2025 2. Over time the company has grown through acquisitions, including Oclaro, NeoPhotonics and Cloud Light 1. International exposure is high, with over 79% of revenue from customers outside the United States 1.
Segments
Market context
The company serves optical networking for cloud and AI, telecommunications, industrial lasers and 3D sensing for consumer electronics 1. Demand for optical connectivity is supported by data center expansion and the shift from copper to photonics, and Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue reached $1.01 billion 12.
Customers are concentrated: in fiscal 2026 Customer A accounted for 26.6% of revenue and Customer B for 15.0% 1. If demand from these customers declines, the effect on revenue could be substantial, making these relationships a key factor to watch 1.
Trends
- AI and cloud demandtailwind
Growing AI workloads are accelerating demand for high-speed optical links in data centers, and management says demand is outpacing current supply 1.
- Shift from copper to photonicstailwind
New optical architectures (scale-out, scale-up and scale-across) are increasingly replacing copper interconnects, expanding the addressable market 1.
- Tariffs and trade restrictionsheadwind
Tariffs and export controls can raise costs and pressure margins if the company cannot pass them on to customers, and the policy path remains uncertain 1.
- Customer inventory cyclesmixed
Customers may build or reduce inventories depending on component availability, which caused large demand swings in the past, although inventory levels normalized from fiscal 2025 1.
Competitive position
Lumentum competes with various public and private companies that supply photonic components, modules and systems 1. Some competitors are also customers for certain products, which makes the competitive relationship more complex 1.
The supplied sources do not name specific direct competitors. Competitive pressure could rise if Chinese optical and photonics producers gain share, a possibility the company flags explicitly in its risk factors 1.
- Public and private photonics component companies
The source refers generally to public and private companies in photonic components without naming them.
- Chinese optical and photonics producers
The company warns they could compete more aggressively if trade restrictions favor local suppliers.
- Customers that are also competitors
Some competitors are also customers for certain products, which complicates the commercial relationship.
- Network equipment manufacturers (NEMs)
These manufacturers are both customers and potential in-house suppliers of optical components.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Marvell to Acquire Lumentum in Historic $115B Tech DealBloomberg Markets · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Marvell Technology could plunge on latest multibillion-dollar acquisitionCNBC — Top News · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Индексы S&P 500 и Nasdaq снизились в понедельник, Dow Jones выросInterfax Russia (RU) · 03 Nov 2026 · RU
- How Lumentum Holdings (LITE) Powers the Next Generation of AI Data DemandYahoo Finance — News · 16 Sept 2026 · EN
- Stewart Asset Management: AI Infrastructure Drives Lumentum Holdings’ (LITE) PotentialYahoo Finance — News · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Here Are Monday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: AGCO Corporation, Deere & Co., Edison International, Lumentum Holdings, PG&E, Sempra Energy, STAG Industrial, Ticketplus, and MoreYahoo Finance — News · 31 Aug 2026 · EN
- Coherent (COHR) & Lumentum Holdings (LITE): Two AI Optics Suppliers Just Beat Earnings. Why Did Investors Punish One of Them?Yahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report03 Nov 2026
- Current report02 Nov 2026Material agreement · Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement06 Oct 2026
- Annual report17 Aug 2026
- Current report11 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report30 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report01 Jun 2026Item 3.02
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Current report05 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-06-27 · SEC / Lumentum Holdings Inc. · 17 Aug 2026
- [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Lumentum Holdings Inc. · 11 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.