olivLaw · US equity research
NAPCO Security Technologies, Inc. NSSC
Communications Equipment, NEC · SIC 3669 · Vertical: Communications Equipment, NEC (SIC 3669)
NAPCO Security Technologies makes electronic security devices, fire and intrusion alarm communicators, recurring cellular services and school safety solutions. Net revenues for fiscal 2026 reached 202.3 million USD, and recurring service revenue with a gross margin above 90 percent makes up a growing share of the business, which could support profitability if the trend continues.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 02 Nov 2026, NAPCO Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) stock was 32.11 USD (−18.41% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.1 bn USD, P/E 26.2 on diluted EPS of 1.23 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.90%, beta 1.20, 52-week range 32.11–47.23 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 50.0 m USD (+1.7% YoY), net income of 13.0 m USD (+6.9% YoY), diluted EPS 0.36 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 30.4
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 32.93 – 40.99
- below the lower band · %B -0.10 · band width 21.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 36.39 / 39.11
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.37 / 0.53
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −11.2% | −2.3% | −8.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −15.7% | −0.8% | −14.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −18.9% | +4.7% | −23.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −23.0% | +10.2% | −33.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | −27.3% | +10.3% | −37.5 pp | −40.8% |
| 3 years | +70.8% | +73.0% | −2.3 pp | +38.1% |
| 5 years | +40.2% | +61.8% | −21.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 42.9 m | 44.0 m | 50.7 m | 49.2 m | 48.2 m | 49.2 m | 55.8 m | 50.0 m |
| Cost of revenue | 18.4 m | 18.8 m | 23.9 m | 21.3 m | 19.9 m | 19.7 m | 21.6 m | 20.6 m |
| Gross profit | 24.5 m | 25.1 m | 26.8 m | 27.8 m | 28.2 m | 29.5 m | 34.2 m | 29.4 m |
| Research & development | 3.1 m | 3.2 m | 3.2 m | 3.2 m | 3.5 m | 3.4 m | 3.7 m | 4.1 m |
| SG&A | 10.2 m | 10.8 m | 11.5 m | 11.0 m | 10.0 m | 11.3 m | 12.1 m | 12.2 m |
| Operating income | 11.2 m | 11.1 m | 12.1 m | 13.6 m | 14.8 m | -1.2 m | 18.4 m | 14.1 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 506.0 k | 493.0 k | 492.0 k | 496.0 k | 488.0 k | 463.0 k | 464.0 k | 469.0 k |
| Pre-tax income | 12.1 m | 12.0 m | 13.0 m | 14.6 m | 15.7 m | -202.0 k | 19.7 m | 15.3 m |
| Income tax | 1.6 m | 1.9 m | 1.3 m | 2.5 m | 2.2 m | 206.0 k | 1.9 m | 2.3 m |
| Net income | 10.5 m | 10.1 m | 11.6 m | 12.2 m | 13.5 m | -408.0 k | 17.8 m | 13.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.33 ≈ | 0.34 | 0.38 | -0.01 | 0.50 ≈ | 0.36 |
| Operating cash flow | 13.5 m ≈ | 13.4 m ≈ | 14.6 m | 11.6 m | 15.1 m ≈ | 16.8 m ≈ | 17.7 m | 2.8 m |
| Capex | 1.1 m ≈ | 65.0 k ≈ | 237.0 k | 193.0 k | 585.0 k ≈ | 734.0 k ≈ | 405.0 k | 433.0 k |
| Dividends paid | — | 4.6 m ≈ | 4.5 m | 5.0 m | 5.0 m ≈ | 5.0 m ≈ | 5.4 m | 5.4 m |
| Share repurchases | 10.7 m ≈ | 18.8 m ≈ | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 45 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 12.4, median 29.2, max 71.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 102.9 m | 101.4 m | 114.0 m | 143.6 m | 170.0 m | 188.8 m | 181.6 m | 202.3 m |
| Revenue YoY | +12.2% | −1.5% | +12.5% | +25.9% | +18.4% | +11.1% | −3.8% | +11.4% |
| Net income | 12.5 m | 7.8 m | 15.4 m | 19.6 m | 27.1 m | 49.8 m | 43.4 m | 43.0 m |
| Net income YoY | +63.2% | −37.5% | +97.7% | +27.2% | +38.4% | +83.6% | −12.9% | −0.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.34 | 0.21 | 0.42 | 0.53 | 0.73 | 1.34 | 1.19 | 1.20 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −17.1% | −38.2% | +100.0% | +26.2% | +37.7% | +83.6% | −11.2% | +0.8% |
| net % | 12.1% | 7.7% | 13.5% | 13.6% | 16.0% | 26.4% | 23.9% | 21.3% |
| Free cash flow | 6.7 m | 8.7 m | 22.0 m | 6.9 m | 21.7 m | 43.8 m | 51.4 m | 59.2 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
- Cash
- 126.9 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 191.0 m USD
- Total assets
- 238.7 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 4.90x
- ROE
- 23.9%
- ROA
- 19.7%
- FCF margin
- 29.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 114.0 m | 143.6 m | 170.0 m | 188.8 m | 181.6 m | 202.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 63.3 m | 84.4 m | 96.8 m | 87.1 m | 80.6 m | 82.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 50.7 m | 59.2 m | 73.2 m | 101.8 m | 101.0 m | 119.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Research & development | 7.6 m | 8.0 m | 9.3 m | 10.8 m | 12.6 m | 13.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| SG&A | 25.2 m | 32.9 m | 33.6 m | 37.2 m | 42.2 m | 44.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Operating income | 17.9 m | 18.2 m | 30.3 m | 53.8 m | 46.3 m | 45.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.3 m | 1.4 m | 1.6 m | 1.8 m | 2.0 m | 1.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 19.2 m ≈ | 19.6 m ≈ | 31.9 m ≈ | 55.6 m ≈ | 48.2 m ≈ | 47.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 17.9 m | 21.8 m | 31.2 m | 56.4 m | 50.1 m | 49.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Income tax | 2.5 m | 2.2 m | 4.1 m | 6.6 m | 6.7 m | 6.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Net income | 15.4 m | 19.6 m | 27.1 m | 49.8 m | 43.4 m | 43.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.42 | 0.53 | 0.73 | 1.34 | 1.19 | 1.20 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 36.8 m | 36.9 m | 37.0 m | 37.1 m | 36.5 m | 35.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | 0.06 | 0.36 | 0.52 | 0.58 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 34.8 m | 41.7 m | 36.0 m | 65.3 m | 83.1 m | 126.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Receivables | 28.1 m | 29.2 m | 26.1 m | 31.9 m | 30.1 m | 33.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Nov 2026verified |
| Inventories | 24.9 m | 40.8 m | 35.1 m | 34.8 m | 30.0 m | 30.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Current assets | 95.6 m | 119.6 m | 131.4 m | 168.8 m | 162.4 m | 208.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 7.8 m | 7.9 m | 9.3 m | 9.1 m | 9.2 m | 9.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 4.7 m | 4.3 m | 3.9 m | 3.6 m | 3.3 m | 3.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Total assets | 122.6 m | 148.6 m | 166.7 m | 207.8 m | 198.1 m | 238.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 6.1 m | 11.1 m | 8.1 m | 8.0 m | 5.7 m | 6.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 3.9 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Sept 2021verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.5 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Sept 2021verified |
| Current liabilities | 20.3 m | 26.5 m | 19.7 m | 22.2 m | 24.1 m | 42.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 30.2 m | 34.8 m | 26.5 m | 28.9 m | 29.5 m | 47.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Equity | 92.4 m † | 113.8 m † | 140.2 m † | 178.9 m † | 168.6 m † | 191.0 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 23.0 m | 8.3 m | 24.7 m | 45.4 m | 53.5 m | 61.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.0 m | 1.5 m | 3.0 m | 1.6 m | 2.1 m | 1.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 22.0 m ≈ | 6.9 m ≈ | 21.7 m ≈ | 43.8 m ≈ | 51.4 m ≈ | 59.2 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -6.4 m | -1.6 m | -28.3 m | -3.2 m | 14.6 m | 3.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | — | 155.0 k | -2.2 m | -12.8 m | -50.4 m | -21.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | — | 2.3 m | 13.3 m | 13.6 m | 20.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Aug 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | — | — | 36.8 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Aug 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
02 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
77% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/Salesunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | 59.7% | 49 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | 22.7% | 100 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF margin · Quality | 24.7% | 99 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 6.0% | 24 (on a fixed band) | 22% |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | 11.4% | 64 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 7.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 4.4% | 87 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.8% | 63 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Growth37/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality80/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns63/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial87/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NAPCO SECURITY TECHNOLOGIES, INC (NSSC). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 202.3 m USD in 2026; YoY growth 11.4%; net margin 21.6%; ROE 23.4%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- EBIT margin: 22.7%
- FCF margin: 24.7%
- Current ratio: 7.2x
- FCF yield: 4.4%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 6.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/Sales.
Versus the vertical median
Communications Equipment, NEC (SIC 3669) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 11 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITELumentum Holdings Inc. | 61.4 bn | — | -240.0% | -230.1% | +83.2% | +110% / +1,499% |
| ESEEsco Technologies Inc. | 6.2 bn | 19.9 | 21.4% | 24.4% | +19.2% | +13% / +130% |
| NSSCNapco Security Technologies, Inc | 1.1 bn | 26.2 | 23.4% | 21.6% | +11.4% | −27% / +71% |
| AIOTPowerfleet, Inc. | 394.6 m | — | -4.0% | -4.2% | +22.4% | −41% / +27% |
| TBCHTurtle Beach Corporation | 281.7 m | — | -3.2% | -1.1% | −14.2% | +13% / +39% |
| AMPGAmplitech Group, Inc. | 75.1 m | — | -19.4% | -33.4% | +165.0% | −24% / +57% |
| INSGInseego Corp. | 74.4 m | 23.8 | — | -6.4% | −13.1% | −59% / +106% |
| REKRRekor Systems, Inc. | 46.2 m | — | -62.8% | -43.8% | +5.3% | −81% / −88% |
| SNTSenstar Technologies Corporation | 36.4 m | 11.1 | 8.0% | 8.8% | +1.7% | −60% / +38% |
| KSCPKnightscope, Inc. | 34.0 m | — | -201.3% | -217.3% | +4.9% | −91% / −98% |
| UTSIUTStarcom Holdings Corp. | 20.2 m | — | -19.5% | -88.5% | −17.5% | −12% / −39% |
| MTEKMaris-Tech Ltd. | 2.7 m | — | -168.6% | -403.3% | −77.9% | −75% / −69% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NSSC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 19.27 Total return -38% · Per year -38% | 34.04 Total return 8% · Per year 8% | 51.24 Total return 62% · Per year 62% |
| 3 years | 19.26 Total return -35% · Per year -14% | 38.23 Total return 25% · Per year 8% | 63.11 Total return 105% · Per year 27% |
| 5 years | 19.25 Total return -32% · Per year -8% | 42.93 Total return 45% · Per year 8% | 77.72 Total return 157% · Per year 21% |
- Exit P/E± 9.56
- Net margin± 6.69
- Annual revenue growth± 5.42
- Annual dilution± 0.56
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 24 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (02 Nov 2026).
In brief
NAPCO Security Technologies makes electronic security devices, fire and intrusion alarm communicators, recurring cellular services and school safety solutions. Net revenues for fiscal 2026 reached 202.3 million USD, and recurring service revenue with a gross margin above 90 percent makes up a growing share of the business, which could support profitability if the trend continues.
SWOT
Strengths
- High-margin recurring revenue provides a steady cash flow and reduces dependence on one-time equipment sales.
- Integrated manufacturing, with a plant in the Dominican Republic and management in the United States, supports lower costs and fast technical support for customers.
- A broad product range that links alarms, access control and locks on one platform is an advantage over specialised competitors.
Weaknesses
- Revenue depends on a network of independent distributors and dealers, who may be hurt by a slowdown in construction or by bankruptcies.
- Quarterly results can fluctuate widely for reasons largely outside the company's control, which makes them hard to predict.
- Sales for school security are hard to measure because they go through distribution and are not reported separately.
Opportunities
- Demand for continuous monitoring and mandatory fire systems could grow recurring revenue further.
- The gradual move away from landlines could widen the customer base for the company's cellular services.
- Rising school security budgets and healthcare safety needs could open new markets.
Threats
- Shortages of electronic components driven by AI infrastructure demand could delay deliveries and raise costs.
- Larger competitors with greater research and financing could launch better products or cut prices.
- Changes in tariffs and disrupted shipping could affect product costs and delivery times.
Risks
- Semiconductor supply chainhigh
Demand from AI data centers could reduce component availability for security makers, bringing longer lead times and higher costs.
- Intense competitionmedium
Larger rivals could launch superior products or compete on price, affecting margins.
- Transport and tariffsmedium
Shipping disruptions, port strikes or tariff changes could delay deliveries and increase costs.
- Labour costs in the Dominican Republicmedium
The plant relies on low labour costs, so wage increases or staff shortages could affect results.
- Litigationlow
Outcomes of legal proceedings are uncertain, and a costly settlement such as the one in fiscal 2026 could weigh on profit in a given period.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- High-margin recurring revenue could keep growing and support profitability if the customer base expands.
- Integrated manufacturing and in-house development could help the company stay competitive against larger rivals.
- The move toward cellular communication and mandatory fire systems could open long-term revenue streams.
What would break the thesis
- If the component shortage persists, deliveries could slow and margins could decline.
- Reliance on independent distributors and dealers could make revenue sensitive to construction cycles.
- If well-resourced competitors invest more, the company could lose market share or pricing power.
What to watch
- Growth of recurring service revenue against the run rate of above 100 million USDQ1 2027
- Availability of electronic components and any cost increases2027
- Effect of tariffs and customs refunds on gross marginnext 10-K
- Outcome of litigation and any further settlements2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 24 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (02 Nov 2026).
The business
Founded in 1969 and headquartered in Amityville, New York, the company designs and manufactures security devices such as digital door locks, intrusion and fire alarm systems, control panels, access control systems and video surveillance. Products are sold mainly through independent distributors, dealers and installers, with about 2,200 active customers. The 10-K states that the Dominican Republic plant makes over 90 percent of products, while management and development remain in the United States.
Cellular communication services, for which dealers pay a monthly fee to use the company's communicators and smart devices, have grown steadily and generate a major part of revenue. The company says this recurring stream carries high margins and gives more stable income than equipment sales. According to the source, research and development absorbs roughly 6 to 7 percent of revenue.
Strategy focuses on mandatory systems such as fire systems with central station monitoring in commercial buildings, and on high-margin IoT connectivity. The company is also extending into healthcare security, including anti-ligature locksets, and offers integrated locking and access control for schools. Sales of school security equipment are hard to quantify because they go through distribution.
Segments
Recurring communication services
Recurring service revenue rose 13 percent in fiscal 2026 to 97.5 million USD, with a gross margin of 90.3 percent. The company estimates an annual run rate of about 103 million USD based on July 2026 revenue, and this segment represents about 48 percent of total revenue.
Security equipment
Equipment sales, including door locks, alarms and access systems, grew 10 percent in fiscal 2026. The increase came mainly from door-locking products and intrusion systems, and in the fourth quarter intrusion product sales rose sharply, largely on StarLink fire communicators.
Market context
The electronic security market is described in the company's results as multi-billion dollar and rapidly expanding. The source notes that education security has passed 3 billion USD in revenue while many schools have not yet addressed the issue. The shift from copper landlines to cellular service favors cellular alarm communication.
Demand in commercial and residential buildings depends on construction activity and economic conditions, which the company lists as risks. In a downturn, the pool of independent distributors and installers could shrink, which would directly affect sales.
Trends
- Strong demand for AI componentsheadwind
The buildout of AI infrastructure and data centers has increased demand for semiconductors, and suppliers may allocate capacity to larger customers. The company says it could face longer lead times and higher costs, which would pressure margins if it cannot pass costs on.
- Phase-out of copper landlinestailwind
As copper landlines are phased out, customers move to cellular service, making the company's cellular services more attractive in new and existing installations. This supports growth in recurring revenue.
- Tariffs and customs refundsmixed
US courts invalidated certain IEEPA tariffs and the company has received or accrued some refunds. Replacement tariffs and possible further changes remain uncertain, so the effect on margins could vary from period to period.
- School security and healthcare demandtailwind
Rising school security budgets and interest in safety solutions for hospitals and institutions could open new opportunities. Sales through distribution make it difficult to measure these revenues precisely.
Competitive position
The company says it faces about 12 competitors that make security equipment for distributors and dealers. Most have far greater financial resources, but the company argues that none makes all key building security products, including alarms, access control, connectivity and locking devices.
Competition is based on features, quality, price, technical support and the ability to deliver on time. The company says its integrated manufacturing and US-based technical support are an advantage, while larger rivals with faster innovation or price pressure could affect its margins.
- Unnamed security equipment manufacturers
The source cites about 12 competitors with larger financial resources, without naming them.
- Manufacturers selling to distributors and central stations
Companies selling to distributors, dealers, central stations and OEMs, not named in the source.
- Cellular communication providers for alarms
Providers of similar cellular alarm services could compete for the same customers.
- Larger firms with bigger R and D budgets
Rivals that invest more in research and development could bring new products to market sooner.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Napco’s (NSSC) Record Quarter Comes With A Costly Asterisk AttachedYahoo Finance — News · 01 Sept 2026 · EN
- Napco Security (NSSC) Q4 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptYahoo Finance — News · 31 Aug 2026 · EN
- NAPCO Security Technologies Q4 Earnings Call HighlightsYahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
- Napco Security Technologies, Inc. Q4 2026 Earnings Call SummaryYahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 01 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 02 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report02 Nov 2026
- Current report02 Nov 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement28 Oct 2026
- Annual report24 Aug 2026
- Current report24 Aug 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 May 2026
- Current report04 May 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report02 Feb 2026
- Current report02 Feb 2026Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / NAPCO Security Technologies, Inc. · 24 Aug 2026
- [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / NAPCO Security Technologies, Inc. · 24 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.