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olivLaw · US equity research

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. LTM

Air Transportation, Scheduled · SIC 4512 · Vertical: Air Transportation, Scheduled (SIC 4512)

47.78USD+8.37% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

LATAM Airlines Group is the largest airline group in South America, operating passenger and cargo services across five domestic markets as well as regional and long-haul routes. The group closed fiscal 2025 with total revenues of 14265.1 million USD, up 11.2%, in a period of capacity expansion and a normalising cargo market after the strong performance of late 2024.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) stock was 47.78 USD (+8.37% on the day), with market capitalisation 27,436.0 bn USD, P/E 19,289.5 on diluted EPS of 0.00 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 1.03, 52-week range 42.38–68.46 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
27,436.0 bn USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
19,289.5
Diluted EPS TTM 0.00 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
0.01%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
0.00%
DPS 12m 0.00
Beta (2y)
1.03
Volatility (1y) 45%
52-week range
42.3868.46

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
51.8
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
42.03 – 51.42
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.61 · band width 20.1%
SMA 50 / 200
49.38 / 52.54
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-1.47 / -1.56
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−5.9%−2.0%−3.9 pp—
3 months−17.2%−2.2%−15.0 pp—
6 months−7.8%+4.3%−12.1 pp—
Year to date−11.5%+10.6%−22.1 pp—
1 year+10.0%+10.5%−0.5 pp+3.7%
3 yearsunavailable+73.7%unavailable+63.7%
5 yearsunavailable+61.7%unavailable—
Max drawdown (1y)
−38.1%
02 Feb 2026 → 30 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−38.1%
02 Feb 2026 → 30 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
unavailable
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 17,066.8, median 19,435.7, max 21,804.6; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue9.9 bn10.1 bn3.9 bn4.9 bn9.4 bn11.6 bn12.8 bn14.3 bn
Revenue YoY+2.9%+1.8%−61.0%+24.5%+91.7%+24.3%+10.2%+11.2%
Net income309.8 m190.4 m-4.5 bn-4.6 bn1.3 bn581.8 m977.0 m1.5 bn
Net income YoY+184.5%−38.5%−2,487.2%unavailableunavailable−56.6%+67.9%+49.4%
Diluted EPS0.510.31-7.50-7.660.010.000.000.00
Diluted EPS YoY+184.5%−38.5%−2,487.2%unavailableunavailable−92.9%+67.8%+53.3%
net %3.1%1.9%-115.9%-95.2%14.3%5.0%7.6%10.2%
Free cash flow1.4 bn1.6 bn-819.0 m-771.3 m-683.7 m1.5 bn1.8 bn2.0 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
2.2 bn USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
1.3 bn USD
Total assets
17.6 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
0.60x
ROE
142.5%
ROA
8.9%
FCF margin
13.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
11.6 bn
2024
12.8 bn
2025
14.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
8.8 bn
2024
9.6 bn
2025
10.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
2.8 bn
2024
3.3 bn
2025
4.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
2.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
2.3 bn ≈
2024
3.0 bn ≈
2025
4.1 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
698.2 m
2024
882.0 m
2025
721.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
596.5 m
2024
993.9 m
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
14.9 m
2024
16.5 m
2025
155.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
581.8 m
2024
977.0 m
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.00
2024
0.00
2025
0.00

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.00
2024
0.00
2025
0.00

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026derived

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
1.7 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
592.9 m
2024
438.5 m
2025
458.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
4.2 bn
2024
3.9 bn
2025
4.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
9.1 bn
2024
10.2 bn
2025
11.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
14.7 bn
2024
15.3 bn
2025
17.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
1.8 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
2.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2023verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2022verified

Current liabilities
2023
5.7 bn
2024
6.3 bn
2025
7.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
14.2 bn
2024
14.5 bn
2025
16.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
438.3 m
2024
711.3 m
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
604.4 bn
2024
604.4 bn
2025
574.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
2.3 bn
2024
3.1 bn
2025
3.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
795.8 m
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
1.5 bn ≈
2024
1.8 bn ≈
2025
2.0 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-659.5 m
2024
-1.2 bn
2025
-1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-1.2 bn
2024
-1.6 bn
2025
-2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
0
2024
174.8 m
2025
605.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
0
2025
584.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
11.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
15.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
29.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
51.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
49.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
2.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
53.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-43.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
10.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
29.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBITDA margin
28.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBIT margin
16.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net margin
10.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF margin
13.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Returns

ROE
141.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROA
8.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
22.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Payout ratio (EPS)
42.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Payout ratio (FCF)
30.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
3.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Quick ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Cash

Operating cash flow
3.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Capital expenditure
1.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
2.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF conversion
134.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Cash conversion
91.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
33 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days inventory outstanding
16 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days payables outstanding
87 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash conversion cycle
-38 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
27,436.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
18,792.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/E (TTM)
19,289.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Earnings yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
20,389.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/S
1,923.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
13,988.9x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
FCF yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 38 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40 · (margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])

Closing price

47.78 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 27,436.0 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
27,436.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
19,289.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
20,389.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
141.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net margin
10.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
11.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Coverage and freshness

33/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2025
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2025
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Dec 2025
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 05 Mar 2026
verified 355derived 7

Score by group

  • Balance sheet16
  • Valuation0
  • Quality96
  • Growth50
  • Returns40

Estimated value range

Low
0.02
USD per share
Mid
0.02
USD per share
High
0.03
USD per share
Price: 47.78 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -100.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -237,746.5% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.01 – 0.05 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E0.02 – 0.05 (Mid 0.02)
    7 companies used · median multiple 9.8x · quartiles 9.3x – 19.0x
    CPA, DAL, LUV, RJET, RYAAY, SKYW, UAL
  • Dividend discount (DDM)0.01 – 0.02 (Mid 0.02)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Air Transportation, Scheduled (SIC 4512)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 38/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality10.2%92 (vs peers)9%
FCF conversion · Quality134.3%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth15.1%100 (on a fixed band)12%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-43.3%0 (on a fixed band)12%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet3.2x27 (on a fixed band)9%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.6x0 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation19,289.5x0 (vs peers)15%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation0.0%0 (on a fixed band)12%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.0%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns30.9%100 (on a fixed band)6%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet16/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality96/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns40/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

Memo

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 14.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 11.2%; net margin 10.2%; ROE 141.1%.

The estimated value range is 0.02–0.03 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.02 USD, the price of 47.78 USD leaves a potential of -100.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -237,746.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 38/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 10.2%
  • FCF conversion: 134.3%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 15.1%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 30.9%

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -43.3%
  • Interest coverage: 3.2x
  • Current ratio: 0.6x
  • P/E (TTM): 19,289.5x
  • FCF yield: 0.0%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Air Transportation, Scheduled (SIC 4512) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
19,289.5x
vertical median 13.2x
above median (+145,787.8%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 7.4x
P/S
1,923.3x
vertical median 0.6x
above median (+318,924.6%)
P/B
20,389.5x
vertical median 1.8x
above median (+1,154,418.1%)
ROE
141.1%
vertical median 7.5%
above median (+1,781.0%)
Net margin
10.2%
vertical median 2.1%
above median (+383.2%)
EBIT margin
16.4%
vertical median 7.4%
above median (+122.4%)
Revenue YoY
11.2%
vertical median 3.7%
above median (+198.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 1.3x
Dividend yield
0.0%
vertical median 0.8%
below median (−99.7%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
LTMLATAM Airlines Group S.A.27,436.0 bn19,289.5141.1%10.2%+11.2%+10% / unavailable
RYAAYRyanair Holdings plc61.6 bn40.6——+3.8%−13% / +25%
DALDelta Air Lines, Inc.54.8 bn16.615.9%4.6%+2.8%+30% / +126%
UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.34.8 bn9.822.3%5.5%+3.5%+5% / +172%
LUVSouthwest Airlines Co21.3 bn21.413.9%3.3%+2.1%+25% / +70%
AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.9.0 bn——-0.8%+0.8%−3% / +10%
CPACopa Holdings, S.A.6.0 bn9.026.1%18.6%+5.0%+20% / +57%
ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.4.5 bn—-4.6%-1.2%+21.3%−7% / +6%
SKYWSkywest Inc3.1 bn8.015.1%9.7%+15.0%−19% / +74%
ALGTAllegiant Travel Co2.2 bn56.71.8%0.9%+3.7%+7% / +19%
ULCCFrontier Group Holdings, Inc.1.6 bn—-175.4%-8.9%−1.4%+55% / +81%
JBLUJetblue Airways Corp1.3 bn—-55.4%-10.0%−2.3%−22% / −19%
RJETRepublic Airways Holdings Inc.958.4 m9.67.5%4.6%+13.7%+2% / +90%
FJETStarfighters Space, Inc.46.8 m—-94.2%—unavailableunavailable / unavailable
AZULAzul SA———0.6%+10.8%unavailable / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for LTM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
32.05
Total return -33% · Per year -33%
56.40
Total return 18% · Per year 18%
84.60
Total return 77% · Per year 77%
3 years
38.02
Total return -20% · Per year -7%
74.59
Total return 56% · Per year 16%
121.83
Total return 155% · Per year 37%
5 years
45.09
Total return -6% · Per year -1%
98.65
Total return 106% · Per year 16%
175.43
Total return 267% · Per year 30%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 18.65
  • Net margin± 13.05
  • Annual revenue growth± 9.74
  • Annual dilution± 1.10

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (08 Oct 2026), 6-K (08 Sept 2026), 6-K (02 Sept 2026), 6-K (10 Aug 2026).

In brief

LATAM Airlines Group is the largest airline group in South America, operating passenger and cargo services across five domestic markets as well as regional and long-haul routes. The group closed fiscal 2025 with total revenues of 14265.1 million USD, up 11.2% 1, in a period of capacity expansion and a normalising cargo market after the strong performance of late 2024.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Leading position in South America with a network across five domestic markets and international operations, giving operational flexibility.
  • Diversification between passenger and cargo businesses that helps offset seasonal swings and revenue volatility.
  • Recognised loyalty programme and global partnerships, including the Delta joint venture, that reinforce the commercial position.

Weaknesses

  • High costs for fuel, maintenance and leases, partly fixed, which can weigh on margins when demand falls.
  • Financial exposure to floating interest rates and to local currency movements, which can raise financing costs.
  • Dependence on a small number of aircraft and engine suppliers, Airbus and Boeing, which limits flexibility when deliveries are delayed.

Opportunities

  • Growing travel demand in South America and expansion of international routes could support additional revenues.
  • Renewal of the fleet with more efficient aircraft could reduce fuel use and operating costs over the medium term.
  • Expansion of dedicated cargo and logistics services could generate revenues less sensitive to seasonality.

Threats

  • Low-cost competition and industry consolidation could pressure fares and market share.
  • Political and economic instability in the countries where the group operates could affect demand and access to routes or airports.
  • Changes in regulation or bilateral agreements could restrict routes and available slots.

Risks

  • Intense competitionhigh

    New market entrants or aggressive pricing could reduce unit revenues and the group's market share.

  • Route and slot accesshigh

    Changes to bilateral agreements or slot allocation rules could limit operations and expansion plans.

  • Debt and financing costsmedium

    Exposure to floating interest rates and large liquidity needs could raise costs and limit financial flexibility.

  • Supplier dependencemedium

    Delays or unavailability of aircraft and parts from a small group of suppliers could affect operational capacity.

  • Political and economic environmentmedium

    Regional instability and state intervention in economies could affect demand, costs and the regulatory framework.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If demand in South America remains solid, growth in passenger and cargo revenues could keep supporting the group's expansion.
  • Fleet renewal and cost discipline could improve margins over the medium term, particularly if fuel prices stay below the prior year's level.
  • The loyalty programme and the Delta partnership could strengthen the competitive advantage over smaller regional operators.

What would break the thesis

  • If fares fall under low-cost pressure, margins could suffer, especially given the large fixed cost base.
  • Debt and exposure to floating rates could limit investment capacity if interest rates remain high.
  • Political instability or new regulation could restrict routes and reduce profitability in certain markets.

What to watch

  • Trend in load factor and passenger yieldQ1 2027
  • Delivery of the Embraer and Airbus aircraft in the fleet plan2027
  • Evolution of fuel and personnel costsnext 10-K
  • Changes to slot allocation rules at Brazilian airports2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (08 Oct 2026), 6-K (08 Sept 2026), 6-K (02 Sept 2026), 6-K (10 Aug 2026).

The business

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. is a Chilean holding company that resulted from the 2012 merger of LAN with TAM of Brazil and operates as one unified business enterprise 1. The group carries passengers and cargo and also offers ground handling, courier, logistics and maintenance services; as of December 31, 2025 its consolidated fleet comprised 371 aircraft, including 20 dedicated cargo freighters 1. The company emerged from its Chapter 11 process on November 3, 2022 and is listed on the Santiago Stock Exchange and on the NYSE under the ticker LTM 1.

The LATAM Pass loyalty programme is described by the company as the largest in South America and the eighth largest in the world by number of members 1. The group also runs a joint venture with Delta Air Lines that has added new routes and frequencies between South America and North America 1.

The stated strategy aims to keep the group the leading airline in South America and to strengthen its financial health, with a focus on safety, punctuality, cost efficiency and fleet renewal with new aircraft, including 78 Airbus A320-family and 15 Boeing 787-9 deliveries planned by 2030 1.

Segments

Domestic and international operations

Domestic Brazil accounted for 30.9% of ASKs and international operations for 52.9%, giving geographic diversification but also exposure to several different economies 1.

Market context

The group operates in the South American airline market, where it keeps its leadership by ASKs and competes with low-cost carriers such as JetSmart and Sky Airline 1. Travel demand in the region stayed healthy during 2025 and passenger traffic grew across segments, although revenues still depend on fuel prices and exchange rates 1.

The air cargo market is shaped by international trade and currency movements, and logistics groups such as Maersk, CMA CGM and MSC have entered air transport, which intensifies competition 1.

Trends

  • Capacity and traffic growthmixed

    Capacity and traffic both grew 8.2% in fiscal 2025, which suggests solid demand, but rapid expansion could pressure fares if demand slows 1.

  • Jet fuel pricestailwind

    The average jet fuel price fell during 2025 and fuel expense declined, yet the group remains exposed to price volatility, partly mitigated by its hedging policy 1.

  • Industry consolidationheadwind

    Alliances and mergers such as Abra Group could increase concentration and the resources of competitors, which is a pressure on LATAM's position 1.

  • Personnel and amortisation costsheadwind

    Wage and depreciation expenses rose sharply in fiscal 2025 as the fleet and headcount expanded, which could limit margins if revenues do not keep pace 1.

Competitive position

Airlines compete on fares, frequency, brand recognition and loyalty programmes, and low-cost carriers such as JetSmart and Sky Airline have an important impact on industry revenues 1.

Competitors backed by governments, such as Aerolineas Argentinas, may enjoy an advantage, and in cargo logistics operators such as DSV and MSC become direct competitors 1.

  • JetSmart

    Low-cost carrier active in Chile, Peru and Colombia, exerting pressure on fares, described in the source as having an important impact on regional markets.

  • Sky Airline

    Low-cost operator present in the Chilean and Peruvian markets that contributes to fare competition in the region.

  • Avianca

    Airline that has adopted low-cost elements while keeping its network and loyalty programme, and is part of Abra Group.

  • Azul

    Operator that received slot allocations at Congonhas airport and benefits from agreements with the Brazilian government on tax debts.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 20 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

Sources

  1. [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / LATAM Airlines Group S.A. · 05 Mar 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.