olivLaw · US equity research
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. UAL
Air Transportation, Scheduled · SIC 4512 · Vertical: Air Transportation, Scheduled (SIC 4512)
United Airlines Holdings is the parent company of one of the largest airlines in the world, with a hub-based network in the United States and flights to six continents. In 2026 the company's revenue grew, supported by travel demand and product investment, while fuel prices rose visibly. For investors, this is a period in which operating income faces pressure from volatile costs, and the pace of revenue growth in the latest quarter matters for judging the trend. The exact figures are shown in the table above.
At the close of 03 Nov 2026, United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) stock was 107.21 USD (−1.86% on the day), with market capitalisation 34.8 bn USD, P/E 9.8 on diluted EPS of 10.93 USD over the last 12 months, beta 2.11, 52-week range 85.21–136.11 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 17.9 bn USD (+17.4% YoY), net income of 1.0 bn USD (+8.4% YoY), diluted EPS 3.14 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 53.2
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 94.67 – 111.21
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.76 · band width 16.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 107.44 / 107.99
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.76 / -1.95
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −4.7% | −2.0% | −2.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −19.2% | −2.2% | −17.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +14.5% | +4.3% | +10.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −4.1% | +10.6% | −14.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +11.5% | +10.5% | +1.1 pp | +0.7% |
| 3 years | +185.8% | +73.7% | +112.2 pp | +57.5% |
| 5 years | +118.2% | +61.7% | +56.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14.7 bn | 13.2 bn | 15.2 bn | 15.2 bn | 15.4 bn | 14.6 bn | 17.7 bn | 17.9 bn |
| Operating income | 1.5 bn | 607.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 997.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 759.0 m | 727.0 m | 733.0 m | 730.0 m | 748.0 m | 756.0 m | 762.0 m | 777.0 m |
| Interest expense | 369.0 m | 356.0 m | 361.0 m | 331.0 m | 325.0 m | 327.0 m | 343.0 m | 359.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 1.3 bn | 478.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 870.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn |
| Income tax | 322.0 m | 91.0 m | 275.0 m | 306.0 m | 281.0 m | 172.0 m | 221.0 m | 282.0 m |
| Net income | 985.0 m | 387.0 m | 973.0 m | 949.0 m | 1.0 bn | 699.0 m | 805.0 m | 1.0 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 2.96 ≈ | 1.16 | 2.97 | 2.90 | 3.19 ≈ | 2.14 | 2.46 | 3.14 |
| Operating cash flow | 2.2 bn | 3.7 bn | 2.2 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn | 4.8 bn | 1.6 bn ≈ | 465.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 1.7 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.3 bn ≈ | 2.1 bn ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 80.0 m | 349.0 m | 240.0 m ≈ | 21.0 m ≈ | 27.0 m | 27.0 m | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 71 percentile of its own 34-quarter history (min 2.3, median 8.7, max 18.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 41.3 bn | 43.3 bn | 15.4 bn | 24.6 bn | 45.0 bn | 53.7 bn | 57.1 bn | 59.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +9.5% | +4.7% | −64.5% | +60.4% | +82.5% | +19.5% | +6.2% | +3.5% |
| Net income | 2.1 bn | 3.0 bn | -7.1 bn | -2.0 bn | 737.0 m | 2.6 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.4 bn |
| Net income YoY | −1.0% | +41.8% | −334.9% | unavailable | unavailable | +255.2% | +20.3% | +6.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 7.67 | 11.58 | -25.30 | -6.10 | 2.23 | 7.89 | 9.45 | 10.20 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +8.6% | +51.0% | −318.5% | unavailable | unavailable | +253.8% | +19.8% | +7.9% |
| net % | 5.1% | 7.0% | -46.0% | -8.0% | 1.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% |
| Free cash flow | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | -5.9 bn | -40.0 m | 1.2 bn | -260.0 m | 3.8 bn | 2.6 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 5.9 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 21.3 bn USD
- Net debt
- 15.3 bn USD
- Equity
- 15.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 76.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.39x
- Current ratio
- 0.65x
- ROE
- 24.0%
- ROA
- 4.5%
- FCF margin
- 4.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 15.4 bn | 24.6 bn | 45.0 bn | 53.7 bn | 57.1 bn | 59.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -6.4 bn | -1.0 bn | 2.3 bn | 4.2 bn | 5.1 bn | 4.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -3.9 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 4.8 bn ≈ | 6.9 bn ≈ | 8.0 bn ≈ | 7.7 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | — | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -8.8 bn | -2.6 bn | 990.0 m | 3.4 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -1.8 bn | -593.0 m | 253.0 m | 769.0 m | 1.0 bn | 953.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -7.1 bn | -2.0 bn | 737.0 m | 2.6 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -25.30 | -6.10 | 2.23 | 7.89 | 9.45 | 10.20 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 279.4 m | 321.9 m | 330.1 m | 331.9 m | 333.2 m | 328.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 11.3 bn | 18.3 bn | 7.2 bn | 6.1 bn | 8.8 bn | 5.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 14.8 bn | 21.8 bn | 20.1 bn | 18.5 bn | 18.9 bn | 16.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | — | — | 39.8 bn | 42.9 bn | 46.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 4.5 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 59.5 bn | 68.2 bn | 67.4 bn | 71.1 bn | 74.1 bn | 76.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 1.9 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.9 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 24.8 bn | 30.4 bn | 28.3 bn | 25.1 bn | 21.7 bn | 17.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 12.7 bn | 18.3 bn | 20.0 bn | 22.2 bn | 23.3 bn | 26.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 6.0 bn † | 5.0 bn † | 6.9 bn † | 9.3 bn † | 12.7 bn † | 15.3 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -4.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.9 bn | 9.4 bn | 8.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.7 bn | 2.1 bn | 4.8 bn | 7.2 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -5.9 bn ≈ | -40.0 m ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | -260.0 m ≈ | 3.8 bn ≈ | 2.6 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 50.0 m | -1.7 bn | -13.8 bn | -6.1 bn | -2.7 bn | -6.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 13.0 bn | 6.4 bn | -3.3 bn | -1.9 bn | -4.2 bn | -4.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 353.0 m | 0 | 0 | 0 | 162.0 m | 637.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 65 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 34.8 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet60
- Valuation66
- Quality66
- Growth90
- Returns2
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 101.66 – 338.97 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)116.21 – 171.49 (Mid 137.58)WACC 9.1% · starting FCFF 2.2 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -2.9%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA168.16 – 297.22 (Mid 195.28)8 companies used · median multiple 7.4x · quartiles 6.3x – 11.5xAAL, ALGT, ALK, CPA, DAL, LUV, RJET, SKYW
- Peers: P/E101.66 – 338.97 (Mid 181.89)7 companies used · median multiple 16.6x · quartiles 9.3x – 31.0xALGT, CPA, DAL, LUV, RJET, RYAAY, SKYW
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 65/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 30.9% | 100 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 5.5% | 75 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 31.2% | 2 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 9.5% | 79 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 66.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.6x | 100 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.6x | 33 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 9.8x | 63 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 3.8x | 89 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.2% | 40 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.2% | 2 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet60/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth90/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality66/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial2/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation66/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 59.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 3.5%; net margin 5.5%; ROE 22.3%; net debt/EBITDA -0.6x.
The estimated value range is 116.21–297.22 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 181.89 USD, the price of 107.21 USD leaves a potential of 69.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 41.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 65/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 30.9%
- Net margin: 5.5%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 9.5%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 66.0%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.6x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.8x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: 31.2%
- Current ratio: 0.8x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.2%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Air Transportation, Scheduled (SIC 4512) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTMLATAM Airlines Group S.A. | 27,436.0 bn | 19,289.5 | 141.1% | 10.2% | +11.2% | −1% / unavailable |
| RYAAYRyanair Holdings plc | 61.6 bn | 40.6 | — | — | +3.8% | −13% / +25% |
| DALDelta Air Lines, Inc. | 54.8 bn | 16.6 | 15.9% | 4.6% | +2.8% | +30% / +126% |
| UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc. | 34.8 bn | 9.8 | 22.3% | 5.5% | +3.5% | +12% / +186% |
| LUVSouthwest Airlines Co | 21.3 bn | 21.4 | 13.9% | 3.3% | +2.1% | +25% / +70% |
| AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc. | 9.0 bn | — | — | -0.8% | +0.8% | −3% / +10% |
| CPACopa Holdings, S.A. | 6.0 bn | 9.0 | 26.1% | 18.6% | +5.0% | +20% / +57% |
| ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc. | 4.5 bn | — | -4.6% | -1.2% | +21.3% | −7% / +6% |
| SKYWSkywest Inc | 3.1 bn | 8.0 | 15.1% | 9.7% | +15.0% | −19% / +74% |
| ALGTAllegiant Travel Co | 2.2 bn | 56.7 | 1.8% | 0.9% | +3.7% | +7% / +19% |
| ULCCFrontier Group Holdings, Inc. | 1.6 bn | — | -175.4% | -8.9% | −1.4% | +55% / +81% |
| JBLUJetblue Airways Corp | 1.3 bn | — | -55.4% | -10.0% | −2.3% | −22% / −19% |
| RJETRepublic Airways Holdings Inc. | 958.4 m | 9.6 | 7.5% | 4.6% | +13.7% | +2% / +90% |
| FJETStarfighters Space, Inc. | 46.8 m | — | -94.2% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AZULAzul SA | — | — | — | 0.6% | +10.8% | unavailable / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for UAL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 67.04 Total return -37% · Per year -37% | 118.26 Total return 10% · Per year 10% | 177.75 Total return 66% · Per year 66% |
| 3 years | 71.81 Total return -33% · Per year -13% | 141.87 Total return 32% · Per year 10% | 233.16 Total return 117% · Per year 30% |
| 5 years | 76.92 Total return -28% · Per year -6% | 170.19 Total return 59% · Per year 10% | 305.83 Total return 185% · Per year 23% |
- Exit P/E± 35.47
- Net margin± 24.83
- Annual revenue growth± 19.44
- Annual dilution± 2.09
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
United Airlines Holdings is the parent company of one of the largest airlines in the world, with a hub-based network in the United States and flights to six continents. In 2026 the company's revenue grew, supported by travel demand and product investment, while fuel prices rose visibly 12. For investors, this is a period in which operating income faces pressure from volatile costs, and the pace of revenue growth in the latest quarter matters for judging the trend 23. The exact figures are shown in the table above.
SWOT
Strengths
- An extensive global network with strong hubs in the United States and abroad, plus Star Alliance membership, offers coverage few competitors can match 1.
- The loyalty program and card partnerships create non-flight revenue and customer loyalty 12.
- The company reports leadership in Starlink connectivity and in the number of daily flights with this service, which can attract new customers 3.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Risks
- Execution of the strategic planhigh
The United Next plan depends on aircraft deliveries, workforce and costs, and the company acknowledges it cannot assure success 1. If execution is delayed, costs could rise.
- Fuel priceshigh
A sharp rise in fuel prices has affected quarterly results, and the company does not hedge its full fuel exposure 12. The impact depends on market developments.
- Accidents and incidentsmedium
An accident or incident, even at another airline, can lead to regulatory scrutiny, loss of confidence and operational restrictions 1.
- Intensified competitionmedium
Rising capacity from competitors on the same destinations can lead to fare reductions and loss of market share 1.
- Debt and credit ratingmedium
The high debt level and the goal of an investment grade rating depend on future results and financing conditions 13.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If travel demand stays strong and revenue per available seat keeps growing, the company could recover margins lost to fuel costs.
- The global network, the loyalty program and Starlink could strengthen customer loyalty and support steadier revenue over the long term.
- Growth in non-airline revenue and expansion of international routes could reduce dependence on fare income from flights.
What would break the thesis
- If fuel prices stay high, costs could outpace revenue growth, and margins could fall below current levels.
- Significant debt and aircraft delivery commitments could limit financial flexibility if demand weakens.
- Intense competition on international routes and fare pressure could limit the company's ability to pass costs on to customers.
What to watch
- Evolution of fuel prices and adjusted operating marginQ4 2026
- Guidance on total revenue growth for the final quarterQ4 2026
- Fleet-wide Starlink rollout against the announced timetable2027
- Performance of new international routes announced for summer 20272027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. is a holding company whose principal subsidiary is United Airlines, Inc., which transports passengers and cargo across North America and to destinations in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East and Latin America 1. Its model rests on a hub and spoke system, with main hubs in Chicago, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles, Newark, San Francisco and Washington, D.C., and United Express regional carriers feed passengers into these hubs 1. The company is a member of Star Alliance and has commercial partnerships and joint business arrangements with several airlines 1.
The MileagePlus loyalty program, the Air Cargo service and direct sales channels, including the website and mobile app, complement the core business 1. Passenger revenue is the largest part of operating revenue, while other revenue, such as co-branded credit card income, has grown steadily 12. The United Next strategy aims to expand the product range and global network, with aircraft deliveries planned through 2034 1.
Segments
Passengers
Passenger revenue accounts for most operating revenue, with higher average fare and yield in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the year-earlier period 2. Premium, Basic Economy and loyalty revenue all rose, according to the results release 3.
Market context
The US airline market is described in the filing as highly competitive, with fare discounting, variable capacity and intensified competition on international routes through alliances and partnerships 1. Travel demand grew in 2025, with 181 million passengers carried, although the load factor eased slightly from prior years 1. Seasonality affects results, with higher demand in the second and third quarters 1.
In 2026 fares and demand were influenced by fuel costs, which rose under the effect of geopolitical conflicts, but demand from corporate and long-haul customers remained solid, according to the company 23. Government funding is another factor that can affect airport operations 2.
Trends
- Rising fuel pricesheadwind
The average fuel price rose considerably in 2026 compared with 2025, pushing operating costs up, and the company responded by reducing capacity and adjusting fares 23. If volatility continues, margins could remain under pressure.
- Higher demand and yieldstailwind
Revenue per available seat mile rose in the third quarter of 2026, and the company reports that business travel and premium demand remain strong 23. If this continues, it could support revenue in coming quarters.
- Starlink connectivity on boardmixed
Installing Starlink Wi-Fi across a major part of the fleet is presented by the company as a differentiator from competitors and as a driver of customer satisfaction 3. The financial effect depends on customer adoption and installation cost.
- Regulation and government fundingheadwind
Regulatory decisions and a possible federal government shutdown could limit capacity or delay approvals for new routes, which could affect expansion plans 12. The company is working with government partners to reduce disruption.
Competitive position
Competition comes mainly from other US airlines and from foreign carriers, especially on international routes where alliances and commercial partnerships play a large role 1. Carriers with lower costs can offer lower fares, which could pressure the company's revenue 1.
The competitive position rests on the global network, the Star Alliance membership, the loyalty program and onboard product investments including Starlink 13. Industry consolidation and stronger alliances could reduce the network advantage 1.
- American AirlinesAAL
Named in the results release as one of the three largest US airlines, against which United compares its seat cancellation rate.
- Delta Air LinesDAL
Part of the group of largest US carriers against which United compares punctuality and cancellations.
- Star Alliance members and partners
A global network with European and Asian members; competition also comes from allies whose cost structures may prove more advantageous.
- Foreign carriers with government backing
Described in the filing as creators of intensified competition on international routes, with large financial resources.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Amid Iran conflict, ‘non-hostile’ deaths of 2 US airmen raise overseas tollDefense News (US, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Qatar Becomes Largest Buyer of U.S. LNG Amid Hormuz CrisisOil Price · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- How can Ukraine defend against 190 ballistic missiles a month? In October, it stopped 7%Euromaidan Press (UA, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- UEFA Champions League: Como, victorie istorică la Lens. Arsenal și Manchester City, învingătoareMediafax · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Can Cheap Batteries Deliver COP31’s 35% Electrification Goal?Oil Price · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Democratic wave weakens MAGA's hold on Congress - Ziarul BursaBURSA.ro · 04 Nov 2026 · RO
- Clear expands e-gates to 53 airports, plans nearly full rollout by end of yearThe Points Guy · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- What’s bad for Trump is good for Le PenPolitico EU · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Democratic sweep puts Erdoğan’s reliance on Trump to the testTurkish Minute (TR, EN, exil) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Earth atmosphere emulators could enable faster and more accurate weather predictionsPhys.org · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- UAE Weighs Plans for Third Strait of Hormuz Bypass PipelineOil Price · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- How ranchers on Brazil's 'Dirty List' bypass forced labor safeguards by selling cattle through intermediariesPhys.org · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Canada to Curb Dependence on US Despite Midterm ResultsKyiv Post · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Umerov outlines initial results of talks in BrusselsUkrinform (UA, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Ukraine's foreign intelligence chief discusses Brussels meetings on Ukraine's recovery and 2027 fundingUkrainska Pravda (UA, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Netanyahu, Eisenkot draw rival endorsements as Herzog opens Israel’s government talksAnadolu Agency (TR, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Entrepreneurs who struggle to understand their emotions are less committed to their business goals, study findsPhys.org · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Why Are Wars Increasingly Difficult to End?War on the Rocks · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- COP30 adaptation pledge would meet under a third of poorer nations’ needs, UN warnsClimate Home News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- How to get United Club lounge access: From credit cards to paid membershipsThe Points Guy · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report21 Oct 2026
- Current report20 Oct 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report16 Jul 2026
- Current report15 Jul 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report27 Apr 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report22 Apr 2026
- Current report21 Apr 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement07 Apr 2026
- Annual report12 Feb 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / United Airlines Holdings, Inc. · 12 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / United Airlines Holdings, Inc. · 21 Oct 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / United Airlines Holdings, Inc. · 20 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.