olivLaw · US equity research
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. ULCC
Air Transportation, Scheduled · SIC 4512 · Vertical: Air Transportation, Scheduled (SIC 4512)
Frontier Group Holdings is the parent of Frontier Airlines, an ultra low-cost carrier that builds its model on very low costs and low fares, with a relatively young and fuel-efficient fleet. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue reached a record 1,279 million USD on strong demand, but fuel costs remain a major pressure, as recent oil price increases show.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) stock was 7.12 USD (+0.42% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.6 bn USD, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 2.26, 52-week range 3.10–8.06 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.4 bn USD (+52.9% YoY), net income of -104.0 m USD, diluted EPS -0.45 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 62.8
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 3.99 – 7.42
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.91 · band width 60.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 5.81 / 5.46
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.33 / 0.10
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +13.9% | −5.9% | +19.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −6.1% | −4.6% | −1.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | +31.1% | +0.2% | +30.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +51.2% | +7.4% | +43.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +84.9% | +8.2% | +76.7 pp | −1.6% |
| 3 years | +94.5% | +68.4% | +26.1 pp | +53.1% |
| 5 years | −58.5% | +56.5% | −115.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.0 bn | 912.0 m | 929.0 m | 886.0 m | 997.0 m | 992.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn |
| Operating income | 45.0 m | -46.0 m | -75.0 m | -77.0 m | 49.0 m | -283.0 m | -97.0 m | -108.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 19.0 m | 20.0 m | 21.0 m | 24.0 m | 26.0 m | 62.0 m | 56.0 m | 59.0 m |
| Interest expense | 9.0 m | 9.0 m | 10.0 m | 15.0 m | 12.0 m | 12.0 m | 10.0 m | 12.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 51.0 m | -40.0 m | -70.0 m | -76.0 m | 52.0 m | -281.0 m | -94.0 m | -104.0 m |
| Income tax | -3.0 m | 3.0 m | 0 | 1.0 m | -1.0 m | -9.0 m | -4.0 m | 0 |
| Net income | 54.0 m | -43.0 m | -70.0 m | -77.0 m | 53.0 m | -272.0 m | -90.0 m | -104.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.24 ≈ | -0.19 | -0.31 | -0.34 | 0.23 ≈ | -1.18 | -0.39 | -0.45 |
| Operating cash flow | 87.0 m | -86.0 m | -133.0 m ≈ | -215.0 m ≈ | -91.0 m | 40.0 m | 151.0 m ≈ | -41.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 14.0 m | 18.0 m | 33.0 m ≈ | 2.0 m ≈ | 22.0 m | 12.0 m | 13.0 m ≈ | 10.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 2.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −50.2% | +64.8% | +61.5% | +7.9% | +5.2% | −1.4% |
| Net income | 251.0 m | -225.0 m | -102.0 m | -37.0 m | -11.0 m | 85.0 m | -137.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −189.6% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −261.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.19 | -1.13 | -0.48 | -0.17 | -0.05 | 0.37 | -0.60 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −195.0% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −262.2% |
| net % | 10.0% | -18.0% | -5.0% | -1.1% | -0.3% | 2.3% | -3.7% |
| Free cash flow | 126.0 m | -573.0 m | 189.0 m | -119.0 m | -312.0 m | -158.0 m | -600.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 671.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 614.0 m USD
- Net debt
- -57.0 m USD
- Equity
- 491.0 m USD
- Total assets
- 7.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.25x
- Current ratio
- 0.46x
- ROE
- -25.0%
- ROA
- -2.0%
- FCF margin
- -16.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 2.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -365.0 m | -117.0 m | -45.0 m | -3.0 m | 58.0 m | -149.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 33.0 m | 38.0 m | 45.0 m | 50.0 m | 72.0 m | 91.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -332.0 m ≈ | -79.0 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 47.0 m ≈ | 130.0 m ≈ | -58.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | — | 21.0 m | 29.0 m | 36.0 m | 46.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -372.0 m | -144.0 m | -45.0 m | 32.0 m | 86.0 m | -134.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -147.0 m | -42.0 m | -8.0 m | 43.0 m | 1.0 m | 3.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -225.0 m | -102.0 m | -37.0 m | -11.0 m | 85.0 m | -137.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.13 | -0.48 | -0.17 | -0.05 | 0.37 | -0.60 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 199.3 m | 211.4 m | 217.6 m | 220.1 m | 226.5 m | 227.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 378.0 m | 918.0 m | 761.0 m | 609.0 m | 740.0 m | 671.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 28.0 m | 50.0 m | 90.0 m | 93.0 m | 73.0 m | 85.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 650.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 871.0 m | 990.0 m | 958.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 176.0 m | 186.0 m | 226.0 m | 309.0 m | 376.0 m | 510.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 29.0 m | 29.0 m | 28.0 m | 28.0 m | 27.0 m | 27.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 3.6 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.5 bn | 5.0 bn | 6.2 bn | 7.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 71.0 m | 86.0 m | 89.0 m | 134.0 m | 115.0 m | 130.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 101.0 m | 127.0 m | 157.0 m | 251.0 m | 261.0 m | 301.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 247.0 m | 287.0 m | 272.0 m | 219.0 m | 241.0 m | 313.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.2 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.5 bn | 5.5 bn | 6.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 310.0 m † | 530.0 m † | 509.0 m † | 507.0 m † | 604.0 m † | 491.0 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -557.0 m | 216.0 m | -78.0 m | -261.0 m | -82.0 m | -525.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 16.0 m | 27.0 m | 41.0 m | 51.0 m | 76.0 m | 75.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -573.0 m ≈ | 189.0 m ≈ | -119.0 m ≈ | -312.0 m ≈ | -158.0 m ≈ | -600.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 11.0 m | -67.0 m | -154.0 m | -90.0 m | -75.0 m | -99.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 156.0 m | 391.0 m | 75.0 m | 199.0 m | 288.0 m | 555.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 0 | 1.0 m | 1.0 m | 0 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.6 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4.73 – 6.37 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)4.73 – 6.37 (Mid 5.34)WACC 8.3% · starting FCFF 40.6 m USD · terminal value share of EV 76%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 24.5%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -933.6% | 0 (vs peers) | 24% |
| Net margin · Quality | -8.9% | 8 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 3.8% | 32 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -9.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 0.1% | 2 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial32/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality3/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial2/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -1.4%; net margin -8.9%; ROE -175.4%.
The estimated value range is 4.73–6.37 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 5.34 USD, the price of 7.12 USD leaves a potential of -25.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -33.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -933.6%
- Net margin: -8.9%
- Interest coverage: -9.5x
- Current ratio: 0.6x
- FCF yield: 0.1%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Air Transportation, Scheduled (SIC 4512) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTMLATAM Airlines Group S.A. | 27,028.3 bn | 19,002.8 | 141.1% | 10.2% | +11.2% | −2% / unavailable |
| RYAAYRyanair Holdings plc | 61.1 bn | 40.2 | — | — | +3.8% | −14% / +24% |
| DALDelta Air Lines, Inc. | 56.2 bn | 17.1 | 15.9% | 4.6% | +2.8% | +33% / +131% |
| UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc. | 35.9 bn | 10.1 | 22.3% | 5.5% | +3.5% | +8% / +180% |
| LUVSouthwest Airlines Co | 21.8 bn | 21.9 | 13.9% | 3.3% | +2.1% | +28% / +74% |
| AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc. | 8.6 bn | — | — | -0.8% | +0.8% | −8% / +4% |
| CPACopa Holdings, S.A. | 5.8 bn | 8.7 | 26.1% | 18.6% | +5.0% | +16% / +53% |
| ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc. | 4.3 bn | — | -4.6% | -1.2% | +21.3% | −10% / +2% |
| SKYWSkywest Inc | 3.0 bn | 7.7 | 15.1% | 9.7% | +15.0% | −21% / +69% |
| ALGTAllegiant Travel Co | 2.4 bn | 60.9 | 1.8% | 0.9% | +3.7% | +15% / +28% |
| ULCCFrontier Group Holdings, Inc. | 1.6 bn | — | -175.4% | -8.9% | −1.4% | +85% / +95% |
| JBLUJetblue Airways Corp | 1.3 bn | — | -55.4% | -10.0% | −2.3% | −24% / −21% |
| RJETRepublic Airways Holdings Inc. | 928.9 m | 9.3 | 7.5% | 4.6% | +13.7% | −1% / +84% |
| FJETStarfighters Space, Inc. | 41.0 m | — | -94.2% | — | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| AZULAzul SA | — | — | — | 0.6% | +10.8% | unavailable / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ULCC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
In brief
Frontier Group Holdings is the parent of Frontier Airlines, an ultra low-cost carrier that builds its model on very low costs and low fares, with a relatively young and fuel-efficient fleet. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue reached a record 1,279 million USD on strong demand, but fuel costs remain a major pressure, as recent oil price increases show.
SWOT
Strengths
- A low-cost structure and a relatively new, fuel-efficient fleet let the company offer competitive fares and stay profitable in price-sensitive markets.
- Ancillary revenue and the loyalty program, including the co-branded credit card extended to 2037, provide a steadier income stream than base fares alone.
- Results improved in the second quarter of 2026, and liquidity was reported above the company's guidance range.
Weaknesses
- The 2025 annual results showed a loss before income taxes, and maintenance and aircraft return costs have added to operating expenses.
- The company relies on a single aircraft type family and a relatively small fleet, which limits flexibility when technical or delivery disruptions occur.
- Margins are sensitive to fuel prices, and recent pressures show how quickly results can change.
Opportunities
- If demand remains strong, network expansion and the First Class product could bring in additional revenue.
- Starlink onboard Wi-Fi, planned for 2027, could open new ancillary revenue sources and improve the customer experience.
- If fuel prices fall, the company could benefit from lower costs and better margins.
Threats
- High fuel prices and geopolitical tensions could raise costs and reduce profitability.
- Aggressive fare competition from larger carriers and other ULCCs could limit the ability to raise prices.
- Tax disputes and TSA audits could generate additional costs if the outcomes are unfavorable to the company.
Risks
- Fuel costshigh
Fuel accounted for 24 percent of operating expenses in 2025, and price increases in 2026 pressured margins. If the increase persists, the company could struggle to pass costs on to passengers.
- Fare competitionhigh
The industry is highly sensitive to price cuts, and if larger carriers extend basic economy fares further, Frontier could lose part of its cost advantage.
- Tax and TSA disputesmedium
The contested excise tax assessment and TSA audits could create additional costs if the outcomes are unfavorable.
- Labor negotiationsmedium
The company is negotiating with unions representing pilots, flight attendants and technicians. If talks drag on, labor costs could come under pressure.
- Dependence on leisure demandlow
Most customers travel for leisure, and a drop in consumer confidence could reduce demand quickly.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Revenue reached a record in the second quarter of 2026 and revenue per available seat mile rose sharply, suggesting solid demand and less competition on some routes.
- The low-cost model, efficient fleet and growing ancillary revenue could support better margins if fuel prices stabilize.
- The extension of the co-branded card to 2037 and plans for Starlink could strengthen revenue and customer loyalty over the long term.
What would break the thesis
- The company reported losses before taxes in 2025 and in the first half of 2026, and one-time aircraft return costs worsened results.
- Dependence on fuel and geopolitical tensions could keep costs high, which could limit margins even when demand is solid.
- Tax disputes and TSA reserves could bring additional expenses, and the final outcome remains uncertain.
What to watch
- Third-quarter RASM growth and adjusted loss per share against guidanceQ3 2026
- Outcome of negotiations with pilot and flight attendant unions2027
- Launch of the first Starlink-equipped aircraft and ancillary revenue results2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
The business
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. is the parent company of Frontier Airlines, Inc., an ultra low-cost carrier headquartered in Denver, Colorado, that flies within the United States and to select near international destinations in the Americas. As of December 31, 2025 the fleet numbered 176 Airbus single-aisle aircraft, and by June 30, 2026 it had 165. The company focuses on leisure and visiting-friends-and-relatives travelers, and its main advantage is a low-cost structure. It says it aims to offer a better experience than typical ULCCs, with family-friendly seating, loyalty benefits and optional services.
In July 2026 the company announced plans to introduce Starlink onboard Wi-Fi, with the first equipped aircraft launching in early 2027, and First Class seating is planned for the end of 2026. The network has been expanded into several important markets, including Dallas-Fort Worth, Newark and Fort Lauderdale. Total liquidity at June 30, 2026 was 1.16 billion USD, supporting investment and the early return of aircraft.
Segments
Ancillary revenue
Ancillary revenue includes optional services, the loyalty program and commissions from the co-branded credit card, totaling 67.57 USD per passenger in 2025. It is an important part of total revenue and is supported by the extension of the Barclays partnership to 2037.
Market context
The U.S. airline industry is highly competitive and sensitive to economic cycles, and leisure demand depends on macroeconomic conditions. Higher fuel prices linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raised costs, but demand stayed solid in the second half of 2026, according to the results release.
The market is dominated by legacy carriers and low-cost operators, and ULCCs such as Frontier compete on very low prices. Because fixed costs are high, the sector is sensitive to capacity changes, and extra capacity can lead to fare cuts on competing routes.
Trends
- Fuel pricesheadwind
Tensions in the Middle East raised oil prices, and the company flagged fuel cost pressure in 2026. If prices stay high, costs could weigh on margins, particularly for a low-cost carrier.
- Stronger demand and farestailwind
Revenue per passenger rose substantially in the second quarter of 2026, supported by strong demand and less competitive capacity on some routes. If these conditions persist, the company could keep improving its yields.
- Early aircraft returnsmixed
The agreement to terminate leases on 24 A320neo aircraft produced significant one-time charges in 2026. Over the longer term, a smaller fleet could simplify operations, but the related costs are still visible in results.
- Tax and TSA regulationheadwind
The company is contesting a 133 million USD tax assessment on federal excise tax applied to optional services, and recorded a one-time 73 million USD reserve for TSA audits. The final outcome of these disputes could affect revenue and liabilities.
Competitive position
Principal domestic competitors include the Big Four carriers, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and Southwest Airlines, plus Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines and JetBlue Airways. Competition also comes from other ULCCs such as Allegiant, Spirit and Sun Country, and from newer carriers such as Avelo and Breeze.
The company's main advantage over larger carriers is its cost structure, which lets it price fares low and stay profitable, while larger rivals find it harder to match those fares. Fare competition, especially when capacity is in excess, can nonetheless narrow this gap.
- American AirlinesAAL
A large legacy carrier competing with Frontier on many domestic routes.
- Southwest AirlinesLUV
A low-cost carrier that classifies itself as an LCC and competes in leisure markets.
- Spirit Airlines
Another U.S. ULCC with a business model close to Frontier's.
- Allegiant Travel CompanyALGT
A low-cost carrier focused on secondary markets that competes with Frontier on some routes.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Atmos Rewards elite status: What it is and how to earn itThe Points Guy · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Urgent Warning Issued For Frontier Airlines FlyersSimple Flying · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Frontier Airlines Likely BreachedHacker News · 01 Nov 2026 · EN
- Frontier Airlines Cancels All Flights To 21 Destinations: See Full List NowSimple Flying · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Frontier reports major airfare surge as high jet fuel costs pinch consumersThe Points Guy · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- Frontier Airlines Is Becoming America's Last True ULCC: Is The Model Still Working?Simple Flying · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- America's largest budget airline reports 71% jump in airfareCNBC — Top News · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- Frontier Airlines Begins Retrofitting Aircraft, Sets First Class Launch Date For Early MarchSimple Flying · 25 Oct 2026 · EN
- Frontier Airlines Cancels 7 Routes From World's Busiest Airport: See List NowSimple Flying · 20 Oct 2026 · EN
- Frontier Airlines Cancels 21 International Routes: See Full List NowSimple Flying · 19 Oct 2026 · EN
- Frontier Airlines Passengers Stranded Overnight After Crew Timeout From Weather DiversionSimple Flying · 16 Oct 2026 · EN
- 2nd Life: Frontier Airlines Due For Delivery Of 1st Ex-Spirit Airbus A321neoSimple Flying · 07 Oct 2026 · EN
- Frontier Airlines Clears Plane After Man With Fake Boarding Pass Refuses To LeaveSimple Flying · 05 Oct 2026 · EN
- Frontier Airlines Flight Attendant Criticized For Filling Empty Water Bottles With Tap WaterSimple Flying · 28 Sept 2026 · EN
- The Secondary Leisure Markets Frontier Airlines Chose Over Backfilling Spirit's Vacated Fort Lauderdale HubSimple Flying · 25 Sept 2026 · EN
- Frontier Airlines Cancels 19 Routes From Denver In 2026: See Full List & Map NowSimple Flying · 24 Sept 2026 · EN
- Frontier Airlines Now Allowing Passengers To Cancel Any Flight Up To 24 Hours Before DepartureSimple Flying · 16 Sept 2026 · EN
- Frontier Airlines Passengers Stranded Overnight After Crew Timeout From Weather DiversionSimple Flying · 13 Sept 2026 · EN
- Why Frontier Airlines' Return To Oakland Signals A Quiet ULCC Land Grab After Southwest's 20% PullbackSimple Flying · 13 Sept 2026 · EN
- Frontier Airlines Unveils 1st-Ever Flights To South America: See All 3 Routes NowSimple Flying · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report02 Nov 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report28 Oct 2026
- Current report28 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report31 Aug 2026Exit or disposal costs · Other events
- Quarterly report29 Jul 2026
- Current report29 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report07 Jul 2026Material agreement
- Current report30 Jun 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation
- Current report12 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. · 18 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. · 29 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. · 29 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.