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olivLaw · US equity research

Matson, Inc. MATX

Water Transportation · SIC 4400 · Vertical: Water Transportation (SIC 4400)

213.87USD+1.15% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Matson is an ocean transportation and logistics provider serving mainly Hawaii, Alaska, Guam and the Asia to U.S. West Coast trade, operating as a Jones Act carrier. In the second quarter of 2026 the company reported consolidated revenue of 969.4 million USD, and its China service volume rose 15.2 percent, making the Asia route the main development to watch.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Matson, Inc. (MATX) stock was 213.87 USD (+1.15% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.3 bn USD, P/E 12.1 on diluted EPS of 17.65 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.66%, beta 1.07, 52-week range 102.05–238.60 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.1 bn USD (+26.5% YoY), net income of 209.4 m USD (+55.5% YoY), diluted EPS 6.96 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
6.3 bn USD
shares as of 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
12.1
Diluted EPS TTM 17.65 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
8.25%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.66%
DPS 12m 1.42
Beta (2y)
1.07
Volatility (1y) 35%
52-week range
102.05238.60

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
36.0
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
214.16 – 242.29
below the lower band · %B -0.01 · band width 12.3%
SMA 50 / 200
227.46 / 194.26
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-2.80 / -0.55
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−4.9%−5.9%+1.1 pp—
3 months+3.7%−4.6%+8.3 pp—
6 months+18.7%+0.2%+18.5 pp—
Year to date+73.1%+7.4%+65.7 pp—
1 year+94.8%+8.2%+86.6 pp+14.8%
3 years+134.5%+68.4%+66.1 pp+56.7%
5 years+139.0%+56.5%+82.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−12.8%
02 Mar 2026 → 12 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−54.4%
29 Mar 2022 → 06 Apr 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
+19.0%
S&P 500 +9.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.1 bn USD
+26.5% YoY
Net income
209.4 m USD
+55.5% YoY
Diluted EPS
6.96
+64.2% YoY
net / operating
18.8% / 22.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue890.3 m782.0 m830.5 m880.1 m851.9 m757.8 m969.4 m1.1 bn
Operating income147.5 m82.1 m113.0 m161.0 m143.7 m61.4 m158.9 m255.2 m
Interest expense1.4 m1.7 m1.7 m1.8 m1.6 m1.6 m1.6 m1.6 m
Pre-tax income158.2 m92.2 m121.7 m168.9 m151.0 m67.9 m163.9 m263.3 m
Income tax30.2 m19.9 m27.0 m34.2 m7.9 m11.3 m34.5 m53.9 m
Net income128.0 m72.3 m94.7 m134.7 m143.1 m56.6 m129.4 m209.4 m
Diluted EPS3.81 ≈2.182.924.244.57 ≈1.854.276.96
Operating cash flow174.7 m89.0 m105.6 m ≈175.6 m ≈176.9 m94.0 m137.6 m ≈229.0 m ≈
Capex125.4 m89.2 m86.3 m83.2 m134.7 m48.3 m——
Dividends paid11.3 m11.3 m11.0 m ≈11.4 m ≈11.2 m11.0 m11.0 m ≈11.4 m ≈
Share repurchases31.7 m66.9 m93.5 m ≈65.4 m ≈77.5 m52.8 m67.0 m ≈60.3 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 55 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 1.8, median 11.2, max 21.3; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue2.2 bn2.2 bn2.4 bn3.9 bn4.3 bn3.1 bn3.4 bn3.3 bn
Revenue YoY+8.6%−0.9%+8.2%+64.7%+10.6%−28.7%+10.6%−2.3%
Net income109.0 m82.7 m193.1 m927.4 m1.1 bn297.1 m476.4 m444.8 m
Net income YoY−52.8%−24.1%+133.5%+380.3%+14.7%−72.1%+60.4%−6.6%
Diluted EPS2.531.914.4421.4727.078.3213.9313.81
Diluted EPS YoY−52.7%−24.5%+132.5%+383.6%+26.1%−69.3%+67.4%−0.9%
net %4.9%3.8%8.1%23.6%24.5%9.6%13.9%13.3%
Free cash flowunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable1.1 bn262.1 m457.7 m153.7 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
141.9 m USD
Financial debt
351.8 m USD
Net debt
209.9 m USD
Equity
2.8 bn USD
Total assets
4.6 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.13x
Current ratio
0.89x
ROE
16.4%
ROA
9.6%
FCF margin
4.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
3.1 bn
2024
3.4 bn
2025
3.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
283.3 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2024verified

Operating income
2023
342.8 m
2024
551.3 m
2025
499.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2021verified

EBITDA
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2021derived

Interest expense
2023
12.2 m
2024
7.5 m
2025
6.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
373.0 m
2024
599.4 m
2025
533.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
75.9 m
2024
123.0 m
2025
89.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
297.1 m
2024
476.4 m
2025
444.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
8.32
2024
13.93
2025
13.81

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
35.7 m
2024
34.2 m
2025
32.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
1.26
2024
1.32
2025
1.40

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
134.0 m
2024
266.8 m
2025
141.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
602.3 m
2024
609.6 m
2025
471.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
2.1 bn
2024
2.3 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
327.8 m
2024
327.8 m
2025
327.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
176.4 m
2024
159.4 m
2025
146.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
4.3 bn
2024
4.6 bn
2025
4.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
277.9 m
2024
268.5 m
2025
244.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
39.7 m
2024
39.7 m
2025
39.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
389.3 m
2024
350.8 m
2025
312.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
562.3 m
2024
560.4 m
2025
527.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
2.4 bn †
2024
2.7 bn †
2025
2.8 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
510.5 m
2024
767.8 m
2025
547.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
248.4 m
2024
310.1 m
2025
393.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
262.1 m ≈
2024
457.7 m ≈
2025
153.7 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-338.2 m
2024
-336.1 m
2025
-265.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-289.7 m
2024
-301.2 m
2025
-406.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
45.0 m
2024
44.8 m
2025
44.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
155.2 m
2024
199.1 m
2025
303.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-2.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-8.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
7.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-9.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-6.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-25.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
18.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-0.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-20.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
25.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-66.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
16.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
14.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
7.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
19.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
11.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
17.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
14.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
8.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
15.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
100.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
96.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
637.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
352.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Mar 2026
Free cash flow
285.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
52.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
6.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
6.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
11.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
12.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
8.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
1.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
10.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
1.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
22.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
4.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
4.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 52 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

213.87 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 6.3 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
6.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
12.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
19.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
14.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-2.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 05 Nov 2026
verified 2503derived 138

Score by group

  • Balance sheet70
  • Returns81
  • Quality59
  • Growth0
  • Valuation63

Estimated value range

Low
122.88
USD per share
Mid
176.64
USD per share
High
245.21
USD per share
Price: 213.87 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -17.4% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -21.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 102.52 – 331.78 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)102.52 – 158.65 (Mid 124.25)
    WACC 9.1% · starting FCFF 290.3 m USD · terminal value share of EV 72%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 18.8%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E143.25 – 331.78 (Mid 229.03)
    13 companies used · median multiple 13.0x · quartiles 8.1x – 18.8x
    BIP, CCL, DLNG, FLNG, INSW, KEX, KNOP, NCLH, RCL, RUBI, TDW, TNK, VIK
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate18.40 – 24.74 (Mid 21.10)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Water Transportation (SIC 4400)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 52/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality17.2%73 (vs peers)13%
Net margin · Quality14.6%63 (vs peers)8%
FCF conversion · Quality52.9%33 (on a fixed band)8%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-8.3%0 (on a fixed band)11%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-20.1%0 (on a fixed band)11%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet96.8x100 (on a fixed band)8%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.1x25 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation12.1x69 (vs peers)13%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation4.5%56 (on a fixed band)11%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns4.8%68 (on a fixed band)8%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns15.6%100 (on a fixed band)5%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet70/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality59/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns81/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation63/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

Memo

Matson, Inc. (MATX). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -2.3%; net margin 14.6%; ROE 19.2%.

The estimated value range is 122.88–245.21 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 176.64 USD, the price of 213.87 USD leaves a potential of -17.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -21.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 52/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 17.2%
  • Interest coverage: 96.8x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 15.6%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -8.3%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -20.1%
  • Current ratio: 1.1x
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Water Transportation (SIC 4400) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 21 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
12.1x
vertical median 16.2x
below median (−25.2%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 9.1x
P/S
1.7x
vertical median 2.6x
below median (−32.8%)
P/B
2.2x
vertical median 2.0x
above median (+11.0%)
ROE
19.2%
vertical median 10.1%
above median (+89.8%)
Net margin
14.6%
vertical median 11.0%
above median (+33.0%)
EBIT margin
16.8%
vertical median 20.5%
below median (−18.4%)
Revenue YoY
-2.3%
vertical median -1.0%
below median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.9x
Dividend yield
0.7%
vertical median 4.0%
below median (−83.4%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd86.3 bn19.141.7%23.8%+8.8%+21% / +200%
CCLCarnival Corp Ltd.39.8 bn13.024.0%11.4%+6.4%+15% / +96%
BIPBrookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P.11.2 bn42.07.7%11.0%+9.8%+5% / +44%
NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.8.2 bn9.831.2%8.2%+3.7%−4% / +16%
MATXMatson, Inc.6.3 bn12.119.2%14.6%−2.3%+95% / +135%
KEXKirby Corporation6.3 bn18.410.4%10.2%+3.0%+5% / +56%
INSWInternational Seaways, Inc.4.8 bn4.549.0%68.2%−11.4%+78% / +107%
GLNGGolar Lng Limited4.3 bn65.73.4%16.7%+51.1%+15% / +98%
TDWTidewater Inc3.4 bn14.019.5%18.3%+0.5%+28% / +15%
SEAL-PASeapeak LLC2.0 bn76.8—4.1%−10.4%−2% / −2%
FLNGFLEX LNG Ltd.1.4 bn18.89.8%21.5%−2.4%+2% / −11%
NATNORDIC AMERICAN TANKERS Ltd1.4 bn108.82.6%4.2%−16.6%+79% / +68%
GLOP-PAGasLog Partners LP1.2 bn—-1.7%-7.2%−21.9%−2% / +5%
CMDBCostamare Bulkers Holdings Limited430.2 m—-11.2%-6.3%unavailable+8% / unavailable
KNOPKNOT Offshore Partners LP288.4 m12.4—6.4%+14.4%−15% / +58%
EDRYEurodry Ltd.102.6 m—-4.0%—+8.9%+173% / +79%
OMEXOdyssey Marine Exploration, Inc.26.0 m——-13,366.3%−54.0%+437% / +200%
USEAUnited Maritime Corp22.2 m—-11.0%-16.4%−16.8%+40% / −4%
RUBIRubico Inc.682.3 k0.06.6%11.2%−2.8%−100% / unavailable
VIKViking Holdings Ltd—33.5263.5%17.7%+21.9%+29% / unavailable
DLNGDynagas Lng Partners LP—2.212.9%—−100.0%−16% / +16%
TNKTeekay Tankers Ltd.—8.118.5%36.9%−22.6%+42% / +65%

1- and 3-year price returns: for MATX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
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Bull
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Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
117.71
Total return -44% · Per year -44%
209.16
Total return -2% · Per year -2%
316.49
Total return 49% · Per year 49%
3 years
93.47
Total return -55% · Per year -23%
188.77
Total return -10% · Per year -3%
316.49
Total return 50% · Per year 15%
5 years
74.22
Total return -63% · Per year -18%
170.36
Total return -17% · Per year -4%
316.49
Total return 52% · Per year 9%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 47.19
  • Net margin± 33.03
  • Annual revenue growth± 29.83
  • Annual dilution± 2.78

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (05 Nov 2026), 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

In brief

Matson is an ocean transportation and logistics provider serving mainly Hawaii, Alaska, Guam and the Asia to U.S. West Coast trade, operating as a Jones Act carrier. In the second quarter of 2026 the company reported consolidated revenue of 969.4 million USD, and its China service volume rose 15.2 percent, making the Asia route the main development to watch 123.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company holds a strong position on Jones Act routes, where foreign competition is restricted by regulation 1.
  • Service frequency, dedicated terminals and the inter-island barge network support an integrated offer that is hard to replicate 1.
  • The company reported solid net income in 2025 and raised its 2026 outlook after a strong quarter 13.

Weaknesses

  • Revenue is concentrated in a few large customers, and losing these relationships could significantly affect results 1.
  • Fuel costs and their recovery are a material exposure, and delays could pressure margins 12.
  • Volumes on the Hawaii and Alaska routes declined in the second quarter of 2026, showing dependence on local demand 2.

Opportunities

  • Strong China route demand and the extra capacity of new vessels could support revenue growth 12.
  • The Honolulu terminal expansion and fleet modernization could improve operating efficiency 1.
  • The Logistics segment could benefit from growth in forwarding and brokerage if the current trend continues 2.

Threats

  • Changes to or repeal of the Jones Act could allow foreign competitors into the company's core markets 1.
  • Trade tensions and tariffs between the U.S. and China could affect demand and rates on the Transpacific route 1.
  • Environmental regulation and investor pressure on sustainability could raise compliance costs 1.

Risks

  • Jones Act changeshigh

    If the Jones Act were repealed or substantially amended, competitors could enter the Hawaii and Alaska markets at lower cost 1.

  • Trade tensionshigh

    Tariffs and trade measures between major economies could reduce demand for the company's Transpacific services 1.

  • Fuel pricesmedium

    Higher fuel prices and difficulty recovering costs through surcharges could affect results 12.

  • Reliance on large customersmedium

    Losing key customers could affect revenue, given the concentration of commercial relationships 1.

  • Emission ruleslow

    IMO carbon intensity requirements could require additional fleet investment if not met 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • The Jones Act position and the integrated Pacific network give the company competitive protection and potentially stable long-term revenue 1.
  • Growing China route demand and the raised outlook could lead to higher operating income in 2026 23.
  • The new vessels and terminal expansion could increase capacity and efficiency in the coming years 1.

What would break the thesis

  • Volumes on Hawaii and Alaska declined, which could signal weaker local demand than expected 2.
  • China route growth depends on a volatile trade environment, and a return to normal seasonality could narrow the advantage 2.
  • Fuel costs and fleet investment could pressure margins and cash flow 12.

What to watch

  • Delivery of the first Aloha Class vessel and its integration on the China routeQ1 2027
  • China route volume and rate trends through peak seasonQ4 2026
  • Recovery of fuel costs in line with the company's outlook2026
  • Actual results against the 2026 operating income outlooknext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (05 Nov 2026), 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

The business

Matson operates two segments: Ocean Transportation, which provides ocean freight services to Hawaii, Alaska, Guam, Micronesia and other islands, plus the expedited China-Long Beach service, and Logistics, which includes transportation brokerage, freight forwarding, warehousing and supply chain management 1. The company holds a 35 percent interest in SSA Terminals, a joint venture operating West Coast terminals including three dedicated to Matson 1. The fleet includes owned and chartered vessels, and the company is building three Aloha Class vessels for the China route 1.

Total operating revenue in fiscal 2025 was 3344.5 million USD, slightly lower than the prior year, and net income was 444.8 million USD 1. Ocean Transportation generated most of the revenue, while Logistics contributed 609.0 million USD 1. As a Jones Act operator, the company holds a special position on routes between the West Coast and U.S. Pacific territories 1.

In the second quarter of 2026 consolidated revenue reached 969.4 million USD, and the company raised its full-year outlook, now expecting consolidated operating income for 2026 to exceed the 2025 level 3. The revised outlook rests on solid U.S. consumer demand and a stable trading environment on the Transpacific route 23.

Segments

Ocean Transportation

Ocean Transportation generated operating revenue of 2735.5 million USD in fiscal 2025 and is the company's main revenue source 1. In the second quarter of 2026 segment revenue rose to 767.4 million USD, driven by higher volume and freight rates on the China service 3. The company expects 2026 segment operating income to be higher than 2025, although SSAT's contribution may be lower 2.

Market context

Matson competes in island and niche Pacific markets, where competition is limited by Jones Act rules but demand depends on local economies in Hawaii, Alaska and Guam 1. On the China route the Transpacific market has been volatile due to tariffs and U.S.-China trade relations, which have affected both volumes and rates 12. Hawaii volume edged down in the second quarter of 2026 while China demand rose sharply 2.

The market for shipping between the continental U.S. and Pacific territories is sensitive to tourism, construction, military spending and fuel prices 1. The company notes that a weakening of these drivers could reduce demand for transport and logistics 1. Alaska volume fell 2.3 percent in the second quarter of 2026, indicating a less dynamic market there 2.

Trends

  • Demand on the China routetailwind

    China route volume rose sharply in the second quarter of 2026 and the company expects the service to be at or near capacity through peak season 23. The increase was supported by e-commerce demand and tighter supply on the Transpacific route 3. If demand reverts to a more traditional seasonal pattern in the fourth quarter, the advantage could narrow 2.

  • Hawaii and Alaska economiesmixed

    Hawaii route volume declined slightly on weaker demand, while the Alaska economy remains stable, supported by oil and gas activity 2. Energy-related inflation is a headwind for consumption in Hawaii 2. In the near term the company expects volumes on these routes to be comparable to or near 2025 levels 2.

  • Fuel costsheadwind

    The Iran conflict has affected fuel prices in all of the company's markets, although it has not yet affected operating performance 2. The company says it continues to expect to fully recover fuel costs by year end 2. If prices stay high or recovery is delayed, margins could be pressured 1.

  • Fleet investment and emission rulesmixed

    The company is building three Aloha Class vessels with delivery planned for 2027 and 2028 to add China route capacity and renew the fleet 1. IMO carbon intensity rules become stricter toward 2030, imposing compliance costs 1. The investments may support efficiency but require significant capital spending 1.

Competitive position

On the Hawaii route Matson competes with Pasha, the barge operator Aloha Marine Lines, and foreign carriers such as ONE and CMA CGM 1. On the Alaska route the main competitors are Totem Ocean Trailer Express, Alaska Marine Lines and Samson Tug & Barge 1. The company differentiates through service frequency, dedicated terminals and its inter-island barge network 1.

The market is competitive with limited barriers to entry for ocean carriers, and air freight carriers add another competitive layer 1. If the Jones Act were changed, foreign competitors with lower costs could enter the Hawaii and Alaska markets 1. This remains an important structural variable for the company 1.

  • Pasha Hawaii

    Main Jones Act competitor on the Hawaii route, offering container and roll-on/roll-off services to Hawaii 1.

  • Aloha Marine Lines

    Jones Act barge operator serving the route between Seattle and Oahu 1.

  • Totem Ocean Trailer Express

    Jones Act competitor on the Alaska route, with roll-on/roll-off service between Tacoma and Anchorage 1.

  • ONE

    Foreign carrier that brings cargo to Oahu from non-U.S. locations, offering importers alternatives 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 22 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 05 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Matson, Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Matson, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Matson, Inc. · 03 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.