olivLaw · US equity research
MaxLinear, Inc. MXL
Semiconductors & Related Devices · SIC 3674 · Vertical: Semiconductors & Related Devices (SIC 3674)
MaxLinear designs communications systems-on-chip for data center, broadband, mobile and industrial markets without owning fabs. The company is in a phase of accelerated growth, driven mainly by demand for optical AI data center infrastructure, with third-quarter 2026 revenue of 218.1 million USD.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL) stock was 56.85 USD (−11.13% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.2 bn USD, beta 2.82, 52-week range 13.05–128.03 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 218.1 m USD (+72.4% YoY), net income of 28.9 m USD, diluted EPS 0.30 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 35.4
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 53.33 – 95.52
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.08 · band width 56.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 76.92 / 60.58
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -5.70 / -3.85
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −46.1% | −1.1% | −45.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −15.7% | −0.5% | −15.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −30.0% | +4.4% | −34.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +226.2% | +12.3% | +213.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +297.0% | +13.5% | +283.5 pp | +35.9% |
| 3 years | +233.6% | +76.4% | +157.2 pp | +30.1% |
| 5 years | −15.9% | +63.7% | −79.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 92.2 m | 95.9 m | 108.8 m | 126.5 m | 136.4 m | 137.2 m | 168.8 m | 218.1 m |
| Cost of revenue | 40.9 m | 42.1 m | 47.3 m | 54.6 m | 57.9 m | 58.3 m | 71.2 m | 90.0 m |
| Gross profit | 51.2 m | 53.8 m | 61.5 m | 71.9 m | 78.6 m | 78.9 m | 97.7 m | 128.1 m |
| SG&A | 38.1 m | 36.6 m | 33.4 m | 47.7 m | 42.0 m | 42.5 m | 45.8 m | 36.9 m |
| Operating income | -41.2 m | -46.1 m | -24.6 m | -41.3 m | -14.9 m | -17.2 m | -4.2 m | 30.2 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 11.7 m | 11.1 m | 7.4 m ≈ | 9.0 m ≈ | 16.4 m | 10.9 m | 7.2 m ≈ | 8.9 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 2.8 m | 2.5 m | 2.5 m | 2.6 m | 2.4 m | 2.2 m | 2.3 m | 2.7 m |
| Pre-tax income | -40.8 m | -49.0 m | -30.7 m | -43.4 m | -17.8 m | -18.7 m | -6.6 m | 28.2 m |
| Income tax | 17.0 m | 711.0 k | -4.1 m | 2.1 m | -2.9 m | 26.5 m | -8.3 m | -732.0 k |
| Net income | -57.8 m | -49.7 m | -26.6 m | -45.5 m | -14.9 m | -45.1 m | 1.8 m | 28.9 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.68 ≈ | -0.58 | -0.31 | -0.52 | -0.17 ≈ | -0.52 | 0.02 | 0.30 |
| Operating cash flow | -27.8 m | -11.4 m | 10.5 m ≈ | 10.1 m ≈ | 10.4 m | -8.9 m | 4.8 m ≈ | -13.6 m ≈ |
| Capex | 2.2 m | 2.0 m | 1.2 m ≈ | 5.7 m ≈ | 3.7 m | 1.4 m | 2.3 m ≈ | 5.9 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 385.0 m | 317.2 m | 478.6 m | 892.4 m | 1.1 bn | 693.3 m | 360.5 m | 467.6 m |
| Revenue YoY | −8.4% | −17.6% | +50.9% | +86.5% | +25.5% | −38.1% | −48.0% | +29.7% |
| Net income | -26.2 m | -19.9 m | -98.6 m | 42.0 m | 125.0 m | -73.1 m | -245.2 m | -136.7 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +197.9% | −158.5% | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.38 | -0.28 | -1.35 | 0.53 | 1.55 | -0.91 | -2.93 | -1.58 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +192.5% | −158.7% | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -6.8% | -6.3% | -20.6% | 4.7% | 11.2% | -10.6% | -68.0% | -29.2% |
| Free cash flow | 94.9 m | 71.5 m | 61.1 m | 129.1 m | 347.5 m | 29.9 m | -63.0 m | 7.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 72.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- 123.6 m USD
- Net debt
- 50.8 m USD
- Equity
- 451.9 m USD
- Total assets
- 796.4 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.27x
- Current ratio
- 1.34x
- ROE
- -28.2%
- ROA
- -16.5%
- FCF margin
- 1.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 478.6 m | 892.4 m | 1.1 bn | 693.3 m | 360.5 m | 467.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 265.8 m | 396.6 m | 470.5 m | 307.6 m | 165.7 m | 201.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 212.8 m | 495.8 m | 649.8 m | 385.7 m | 194.8 m | 265.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| SG&A | 130.0 m | 149.9 m | 168.0 m | 132.2 m | 138.3 m | 159.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Operating income | -101.1 m | 65.2 m | 180.2 m | -38.2 m | -223.4 m | -126.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 76.5 m | 91.8 m | 80.7 m | 71.5 m | 54.1 m | 44.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -24.6 m ≈ | 157.0 m ≈ | 261.0 m ≈ | 33.3 m ≈ | -169.2 m ≈ | -82.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 13.0 m | 13.0 m | 9.8 m | 10.7 m | 10.9 m | 10.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -114.9 m | 47.9 m | 174.2 m | -63.8 m | -238.7 m | -140.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Income tax | -16.3 m | 5.9 m | 49.2 m | 9.3 m | 6.5 m | -4.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Net income | -98.6 m | 42.0 m | 125.0 m | -73.1 m | -245.2 m | -136.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.35 | 0.53 | 1.55 | -0.91 | -2.93 | -1.58 | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 73.1 m | 79.7 m | 80.9 m | 80.7 m | 83.6 m | 86.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 148.9 m | 130.6 m | 187.4 m | 187.3 m | 118.6 m | 72.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Receivables | 67.4 m | 119.7 m | 171.0 m | 170.6 m | 85.5 m | 46.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Inventories | 97.8 m | 131.7 m | 160.5 m | 99.9 m | 90.3 m | 78.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Current assets | 361.7 m | 404.1 m | 563.1 m | 488.0 m | 323.4 m | 248.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 39.5 m | 60.9 m | 79.0 m | 66.4 m | 59.3 m | 48.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 302.8 m | 306.7 m | 306.7 m | 318.6 m | 318.6 m | 318.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 207.3 m | 152.5 m | 109.3 m | 73.6 m | 55.0 m | 48.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 864.6 m | 796.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 32.8 m | 53.0 m | 68.6 m | 21.6 m | 31.4 m | 37.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 363.6 m | 306.2 m | 121.8 m | 122.4 m | 123.0 m | 123.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 233.7 m | 207.4 m | 341.1 m | 222.1 m | 182.3 m | 186.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 631.3 m | 561.2 m | 503.6 m | 394.0 m | 348.4 m | 344.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Equity | 391.1 m † | 489.2 m † | 676.4 m † | 686.3 m † | 516.3 m † | 451.9 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 73.6 m | 168.2 m | 388.7 m | 43.4 m | -45.3 m | 19.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Capex | 12.5 m | 39.2 m | 41.3 m | 13.5 m | 17.7 m | 12.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 61.1 m ≈ | 129.1 m ≈ | 347.5 m ≈ | 29.9 m ≈ | -63.0 m ≈ | 7.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -175.3 m | -91.8 m | -91.8 m | -15.9 m | -23.4 m | -19.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 159.6 m | -91.9 m | -240.4 m | -26.4 m | 1.3 m | -18.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 23.5 m | 31.5 m | 0 | 0 | 20.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 28 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 5.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet49
- Growth25
- Quality26
- Returns40
- Valuation20
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.34 – 76.44 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/Sales23.37 – 76.44 (Mid 36.36)28 companies used · median multiple 5.1x · quartiles 3.3x – 10.7xAAOI, ADI, ALGM, AMAT, AMD, AMKR, AVGO, DIOD, FSLR, FTCI, ICHR, INTC, MCHP, MRAM, MRVL, MTSI, MU, NVDA, NXPI, ON, PLAB, Q, QUIK, SPCB, STM, SYNA, TXN, WOLF
- Peers: EV/EBITDA2.34 – 8.68 (Mid 6.19)12 companies used · median multiple 17.3x · quartiles 7.9x – 23.4xAMAT, AMKR, FSLR, ICHR, MCHP, MU, NVDA, NXPI, ON, PLAB, SPCB, STM
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 28/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | 58.0% | 45 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | -0.9% | 30 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF margin · Quality | -3.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -25.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | 29.7% | 74 (vs peers) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 2.2x | 14 (vs peers) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.2x | 83 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | 8.0x | 36 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -0.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.4% | 40 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet49/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Growth25/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality26/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns40/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Valuation20/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
Memo
MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 467.6 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 29.7%; net margin -4.4%; ROE -5.9%; net debt/EBITDA 2.2x.
The estimated value range is 12.85–42.56 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 21.28 USD, the price of 56.85 USD leaves a potential of -62.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -167.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 28/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue growth (YoY): 29.7%
- Current ratio: 2.2x
What contradicts it
- EBIT margin: -0.9%
- FCF margin: -3.1%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -25.3%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 2.2x
- FCF yield: -0.4%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Semiconductors & Related Devices (SIC 3674) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDANvidia Corp | 4,823.1 bn | 25.3 | 117.2% | 63.7% | +65.5% | +13% / +328% |
| AVGOBroadcom Inc. | 1,553.7 bn | 41.6 | 44.2% | 42.9% | +23.9% | −19% / +252% |
| MUMicron Technology, Inc. | 899.7 bn | 10.7 | 88.3% | 63.8% | +256.3% | +236% / +945% |
| AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc | 801.6 bn | 106.3 | 11.8% | 16.8% | +34.3% | +125% / +303% |
| INTCIntel Corporation | 309.7 bn | — | -10.9% | -20.1% | −0.5% | +44% / +30% |
| AMATApplied Materials Inc | 293.2 bn | 31.9 | 41.1% | 30.1% | +4.4% | +46% / +147% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Inc | 284.6 bn | 40.4 | 39.7% | 34.3% | +13.0% | +85% / +104% |
| ARMArm Holdings PLC | 204.1 bn | 225.6 | 12.0% | 18.4% | +22.8% | +41% / +212% |
| ADIAnalog Devices Inc | 196.8 bn | 48.2 | 12.2% | 29.8% | +16.9% | +53% / +122% |
| MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc | 140.1 bn | 52.8 | 16.5% | 27.9% | +42.1% | +79% / +187% |
| NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V. | 66.8 bn | 20.8 | 29.2% | 23.4% | −2.7% | +36% / +30% |
| MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc. | 61.5 bn | 69.5 | 25.1% | 23.9% | +26.4% | +36% / +130% |
| MCHPMicrochip Technology Incorporated | 40.9 bn | 104.2 | 7.2% | 9.3% | +7.1% | +41% / −10% |
| STMSTMicroelectronics N.V. | 40.5 bn | 253.3 | 0.9% | 1.4% | −11.1% | +98% / −4% |
| ALABAstera Labs, Inc. | 39.0 bn | 89.0 | 28.2% | 29.6% | +115.1% | +42% / unavailable |
| ONOn Semiconductor Corp | 27.7 bn | 41.4 | 8.9% | 10.8% | −15.3% | +42% / −0% |
| CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding Ltd | 25.7 bn | 48.7 | 30.7% | 33.8% | +205.7% | −23% / +662% |
| QQnity Electronics, Inc. | 24.8 bn | 42.0 | 7.6% | 11.5% | +9.7% | +46% / unavailable |
| FSLRFirst Solar, Inc. | 20.9 bn | 11.3 | 18.7% | 37.1% | +24.1% | −29% / +23% |
| MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | 17.8 bn | 74.6 | 17.2% | 20.7% | +32.6% | +33% / +178% |
| AMKRAmkor Technology, Inc. | 8.8 bn | 14.4 | 13.6% | 8.3% | +6.2% | −2% / +27% |
| ALGMAllegro Microsystems, Inc. | 5.8 bn | 209.1 | 3.2% | 3.1% | +22.8% | +17% / +15% |
| CRUSCirrus Logic, Inc. | 5.8 bn | 14.6 | 19.5% | 20.2% | +5.3% | −4% / +53% |
| MXLMaxLinear, Inc. | 5.2 bn | — | -5.9% | -4.4% | +29.7% | +297% / +234% |
| AAOIApplied Optoelectronics, Inc. | 5.0 bn | — | -5.4% | -9.6% | +82.8% | +121% / +347% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MXL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
MaxLinear designs communications systems-on-chip for data center, broadband, mobile and industrial markets without owning fabs. The company is in a phase of accelerated growth, driven mainly by demand for optical AI data center infrastructure, with third-quarter 2026 revenue of 218.1 million USD 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company achieves high functional integration on one chip by designing analog and mixed-signal circuits in CMOS 1. Rapid growth in the optical segment and rising gross margins point to a solid position in advanced products 3.
- Products have long life cycles in many markets, making them difficult to replace once designed in 2. The company has also reported an increased revolving credit facility available to it 3.
- The fabless model gives a flexible cost structure and lets investment concentrate on research and development 1.
Weaknesses
- Customers are few and concentrated, and losing a major one could significantly affect revenue 12. Orders come on a purchase order basis with no long-term commitments 2.
- The company does not own fabs and depends on third parties for manufacturing, which makes the supply chain vulnerable 1.
- The dispute over the Silicon Motion merger creates legal costs and a risk of paying damages 1.
Opportunities
- Demand for high-speed optical links and AI in data centers could significantly expand the infrastructure segment 3. The launch of 1.6T products could raise content per product 3.
- Industrial and multi-market connectivity could bring new customers if products qualify for new applications 1.
- Rising investment in 5G and backhaul infrastructure could support the radio product lines 1.
Threats
- Tariffs and export restrictions between the United States and other countries could reduce demand and pressure prices 13.
- If hyperscaler AI investment declines, demand for optical products could fall quickly 3.
- Competition is intensifying, and falling average selling prices could weigh on the company's margins 1.
Risks
- Dependence on a few large customershigh
A small number of customers generate a major share of revenue, and lower orders from them could affect results 12.
- Growth concentrated in AI infrastructurehigh
Recent growth depends on the programs of hyperscale customers, and qualification delays or lower investment could affect revenue 3.
- Silicon Motion litigationmedium
Silicon Motion has started arbitration in Singapore, and damages could be significant and could require drawing on existing credit lines 1.
- Tariffs and export restrictionsmedium
Changes in trade policy and export controls could affect sales and access to some markets 1.
- Industry cyclicalitymedium
Demand in the semiconductor industry is cyclical, and inventory reduction or lower orders could quickly affect revenue 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Rising revenue in the AI optical infrastructure segment and expanding margins could support a long expansion period, if 1.6T products reach production on time 3.
- The Keystone PAM4 DSP platform and the Rushmore and Annapurna families could strengthen the company's position in high-speed optical connections 3.
- Diversification into connectivity, industrial and 5G could reduce dependence on a single segment if demand in these areas stabilizes 1.
What would break the thesis
- Recent growth is concentrated in a few hyperscale customers, and a change in their plans could quickly reverse the trend 23.
- The legal dispute over Silicon Motion could generate costs and damages that consume company resources 1.
- Trade tensions and export restrictions could reduce access to important markets and pressure prices 13.
What to watch
- Actual fourth-quarter results against the revenue guidanceQ4 2026
- Development of the optical infrastructure segment and production ramp of 1.6T products2027
- Status of the Silicon Motion arbitration and any damagesnext 10-K
- Customer concentration and the share of revenue from the ten largest customersnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
MaxLinear is a fabless integrated circuit design company based in Carlsbad, California, developing SoCs that integrate RF, high-performance analog, mixed-signal, digital signal processing and power management 1. Products are sold mainly to distributors, module makers, OEMs and ODMs that incorporate them into routers, modems, optical transceivers and 5G base stations 1. Fiscal 2025 revenue came partly from RF receivers, connectivity solutions, optical interconnect products and interface and power management solutions 1.
Customers are concentrated: in fiscal 2025 two customers accounted for 28% of revenue and the ten largest for 65% 1. Products are shipped mainly to Asia, a share that reached 85% in the first nine months of 2026 2. The company has no long-term purchase commitments with customers, who buy on a purchase order basis 2.
Financially, the third-quarter 2026 GAAP gross margin was 58.7% and the non-GAAP gross margin 60.0% 3. The terminated Silicon Motion merger agreement of 2023 remains a source of legal costs and uncertainty 1.
Segments
Data center and AI infrastructure
The infrastructure segment, which includes PAM4 optical transceivers for data centers, grew 210% year over year in the third quarter of 2026 on accelerated adoption of optical AI products 3. The company points to the Keystone PAM4 DSP platform and the 1.6T-capable Rushmore and Annapurna families as main growth drivers 3.
Broadband, connectivity and industrial
Products for broadband gateways, DOCSIS and PON modems, Wi-Fi routers and connectivity are tied to operator modems and gateways 1. The industrial and multi-market line offers serial interfaces, USB, PCIe and power management 1. The company has reported a recovery from excess channel inventory in broadband and connectivity 1.
Market context
The company operates in markets linked to hyperscale data centers, 5G networks, fixed broadband, home connectivity and industrial automation 1. Rising demand for data transfer and AI computing could support the optical segment if data center infrastructure investment is sustained 1. The quarterly report also notes that dependence on a small number of hyperscale customers creates program and qualification risks 3.
The semiconductor market is cyclical, and trade tensions and tariffs between the United States and China affect demand and average selling prices 1. Revenue from Asian customers depends on exports to European and North American markets through Asian system makers 2.
Trends
- AI expansion in data centerstailwind
Rapid adoption of AI applications and cloud services raises demand for high-speed optical links between servers, which has produced double-digit growth in the infrastructure segment 13. If hyperscaler AI investment stays at current levels, the segment could sustain growth 3.
- Transition to 1.6T connectionsmixed
Migration from 800G to 1.6T in routers and switches increases chip content per product, and the company is already developing products for this generation 13. Qualification or production delays could push back the related revenue 3.
- Trade tensions and export controlsheadwind
Tariffs, export controls and geopolitical tensions could reduce demand and pressure average selling prices, and the company explicitly lists these risks 13.
- Inventory cycles and volatile demandmixed
The semiconductor industry goes through cycles of channel inventory build and reduction, which has affected the company's revenue in the past 1. The current recovery from excess inventory could be followed by a normalization of orders 1.
Competitive position
The supplied sources describe competition as intense and increasing, with firms competing on integrating RF, analog and digital functions on one chip and on low power consumption 1. The company argues its solutions have integration and cost advantages versus competitors, but does not quantify its market share 1.
Competition arises both in design wins and in average selling prices, which have declined in the past 1. The risk of losing share is particularly high in the optical segment, where demand is concentrated 13.
- Silicon Motion Technology Corporation
Provider of NAND flash controllers for solid state drives; the company whose merger with MaxLinear was terminated in 2023 1.
- Asian analog and RF semiconductor companies
The sources do not name them but refer to competitors offering integrated circuits for the same product classes 1.
- Optical module DSP makers
Suppliers of digital signal processors for optical transceivers compete directly with the Keystone PAM4 DSP platform, per the source descriptions 13.
- Connectivity and gateway module makers
Competition in Wi-Fi and broadband gateways comes from makers that also integrate connectivity functions 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report22 Oct 2026
- Current report22 Oct 2026Material agreement · Results of operations · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report23 Jul 2026
- Current report23 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Jun 2026Item 4.01 · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report23 Apr 2026
- Current report23 Apr 2026Material agreement · Results of operations · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement02 Apr 2026
- Current report17 Feb 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / MaxLinear, Inc. · 29 Jan 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / MaxLinear, Inc. · 22 Oct 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / MaxLinear, Inc. · 22 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.