olivLaw · US equity research
NVIDIA Corporation NVDA
Semiconductors & Related Devices · SIC 3674 · Vertical: Semiconductors & Related Devices (SIC 3674)
NVIDIA is a data-center-scale AI infrastructure company that reported fiscal 2026 revenue of 215.9 billion USD, up 65%. In the second quarter of fiscal 2027 revenue reached 96.2 billion USD, up 106% year on year, with Data Center contributing 89.0 billion USD. Guidance for the third quarter points to about 108.0 billion USD, with no Data Center compute revenue from China assumed.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) stock was 200.13 USD (−3.17% on the day), with market capitalisation 4,823.1 bn USD, P/E 25.3 on diluted EPS of 7.91 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.14%, beta 1.91, 52-week range 165.17–239.24 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 96.2 bn USD (+105.9% YoY), net income of 59.7 bn USD (+125.9% YoY), diluted EPS 2.46 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 34.5
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 199.21 – 233.04
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.03 · band width 15.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 221.20 / 204.67
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -5.31 / -3.50
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −16.2% | −1.1% | −15.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −8.7% | −0.5% | −8.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −3.7% | +4.4% | −8.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +7.3% | +12.3% | −5.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +13.5% | −12.8 pp | +37.6% |
| 3 years | +344.7% | +76.4% | +268.3 pp | +112.8% |
| 5 years | +572.7% | +63.7% | +509.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 26 Jul 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 35.1 bn | 39.3 bn | 44.1 bn | 46.7 bn | 57.0 bn | 68.1 bn | 81.6 bn | 96.2 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 8.9 bn | 10.6 bn | 17.4 bn | 12.9 bn | 15.2 bn | 17.0 bn | 20.5 bn | 24.1 bn |
| Gross profit | 26.2 bn | 28.7 bn | 26.7 bn | 33.9 bn | 41.8 bn | 51.1 bn | 61.2 bn | 72.1 bn |
| Research & development | 3.4 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.7 bn | 5.5 bn | 6.3 bn | 7.1 bn |
| SG&A | 897.0 m | 975.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn |
| Operating income | 21.9 bn | 24.0 bn | 21.6 bn | 28.4 bn | 36.0 bn | 44.3 bn | 53.5 bn | 63.7 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 478.0 m ≈ | 543.0 m | 611.0 m | 669.0 m ≈ | 751.0 m ≈ | 812.0 m | 997.0 m | 1.1 bn ≈ |
| Interest expense | 61.0 m | 61.0 m | 63.0 m | 62.0 m | 61.0 m | 73.0 m | 102.0 m | 227.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 22.3 bn | 25.2 bn | 21.9 bn | 31.2 bn | 37.9 bn | 50.4 bn | 69.9 bn | 71.5 bn |
| Income tax | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.1 bn | 4.8 bn | 6.0 bn | 7.4 bn | 11.6 bn | 11.8 bn |
| Net income | 19.3 bn | 22.1 bn | 18.8 bn | 26.4 bn | 31.9 bn | 43.0 bn | 58.3 bn | 59.7 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 0.78 | 0.89 ≈ | 0.76 | 1.08 | 1.30 | 1.76 ≈ | 2.39 | 2.46 |
| Operating cash flow | 17.6 bn ≈ | 16.6 bn | 27.4 bn | 15.4 bn ≈ | 23.8 bn ≈ | 36.2 bn | 50.3 bn | 24.1 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 813.0 m ≈ | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.9 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.7 bn ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 245.0 m | 245.0 m | 244.0 m | 244.0 m | 244.0 m ≈ | 242.0 m | 243.0 m | 6.0 bn |
| Share repurchases | 11.0 bn ≈ | 7.8 bn | 14.1 bn | 9.7 bn ≈ | 12.5 bn ≈ | 3.8 bn | 19.3 bn | 19.7 bn ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 70 percentile of its own 43-quarter history (min 0.6, median 5.0, max 55.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11.7 bn | 10.9 bn | 16.7 bn | 26.9 bn | 27.0 bn | 60.9 bn | 130.5 bn | 215.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +20.6% | −6.8% | +52.7% | +61.4% | +0.2% | +125.9% | +114.2% | +65.5% |
| Net income | 4.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 4.3 bn | 9.8 bn | 4.4 bn | 29.8 bn | 72.9 bn | 120.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | +35.9% | −32.5% | +54.9% | +125.1% | −55.2% | +581.3% | +144.9% | +64.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 6.63 | 1.13 | 1.73 | 3.85 | 0.17 | 1.19 | 2.94 | 4.90 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +37.6% | −83.0% | +53.1% | +122.5% | −95.6% | +600.0% | +147.1% | +66.7% |
| net % | 35.3% | 25.6% | 26.0% | 36.2% | 16.2% | 48.8% | 55.8% | 55.6% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | 8.1 bn | 3.8 bn | 27.0 bn | 60.9 bn | 96.7 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 25 Jan 2026
- Cash
- 10.6 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 8.5 bn USD
- Net debt
- -2.1 bn USD
- Equity
- 157.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 206.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.05x
- Current ratio
- 3.91x
- ROE
- 101.5%
- ROA
- 75.4%
- FCF margin
- 44.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 16.7 bn | 26.9 bn | 27.0 bn | 60.9 bn | 130.5 bn | 215.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 6.3 bn | 9.4 bn | 11.6 bn | 16.6 bn | 32.6 bn | 62.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 10.4 bn | 17.5 bn | 15.4 bn | 44.3 bn | 97.9 bn | 153.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 3.9 bn | 5.3 bn | 7.3 bn | 8.7 bn | 12.9 bn | 18.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 1.9 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 4.5 bn | 10.0 bn | 4.2 bn | 33.0 bn | 81.5 bn | 130.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 5.6 bn ≈ | 11.2 bn ≈ | 5.8 bn ≈ | 34.5 bn ≈ | 83.3 bn ≈ | 133.2 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 184.0 m | 236.0 m | 262.0 m | 257.0 m | 247.0 m | 259.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 4.4 bn | 9.9 bn | 4.2 bn | 33.8 bn | 84.0 bn | 141.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 77.0 m | 189.0 m | -187.0 m | 4.1 bn | 11.1 bn | 21.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 4.3 bn | 9.8 bn | 4.4 bn | 29.8 bn | 72.9 bn | 120.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.73 | 3.85 | 0.17 | 1.19 | 2.94 | 4.90 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 25.1 bn | 24.9 bn | 24.8 bn | 24.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.04 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 847.0 m | 2.0 bn | 3.4 bn | 7.3 bn | 8.6 bn | 10.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 2.4 bn | 4.7 bn | 3.8 bn | 10.0 bn | 23.1 bn | 38.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.8 bn | 2.6 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.3 bn | 10.1 bn | 21.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 16.1 bn | 28.8 bn | 23.1 bn | 44.3 bn | 80.1 bn | 125.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.9 bn | 6.3 bn | 10.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 4.2 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.4 bn | 5.2 bn | 20.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 2.7 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.1 bn | 807.0 m | 3.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 28.8 bn | 44.2 bn | 41.2 bn | 65.7 bn | 111.6 bn | 206.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.1 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.2 bn | 2.7 bn | 6.3 bn | 9.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 999.0 m | 0 | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 0 | 999.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 6.0 bn | 10.9 bn | 9.7 bn | 8.5 bn | 8.5 bn | 7.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 3.9 bn | 4.3 bn | 6.6 bn | 10.6 bn | 18.0 bn | 32.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 11.9 bn | 17.6 bn | 19.1 bn | 22.8 bn | 32.3 bn | 49.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 16.9 bn † | 26.6 bn † | 22.1 bn † | 43.0 bn † | 79.3 bn † | 157.3 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 620.0 m | — | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Nov 2023verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 5.8 bn | 9.1 bn | 5.6 bn | 28.1 bn | 64.1 bn | 102.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | — | 976.0 m | 1.8 bn | 1.1 bn | 3.2 bn | 6.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | — | 8.1 bn ≈ | 3.8 bn ≈ | 27.0 bn ≈ | 60.9 bn ≈ | 96.7 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -19.7 bn | -9.8 bn | 7.4 bn | -10.6 bn | -20.4 bn | -52.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 3.8 bn | 1.9 bn | -11.6 bn | -13.6 bn | -42.4 bn | -48.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 395.0 m | 399.0 m | 398.0 m | 395.0 m | 834.0 m | 974.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 10.0 bn | 9.5 bn | 33.7 bn | 40.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 71 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 4,823.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet71
- Valuation32
- Quality94
- Growth94
- Returns55
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 54.53 – 252.35 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)86.93 – 133.03 (Mid 104.91)WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 127.4 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/Sales54.53 – 178.94 (Mid 97.78)24 companies used · median multiple 7.8x · quartiles 4.4x – 14.3xAAOI, ADI, AMAT, AMD, AVGO, AXTI, FSLR, FTCI, GFS, INTC, MCHP, MRAM, MRVL, MTSI, MU, MXL, NXPI, ON, Q, SMTC, TE, TSEM, TXN, UCTT
- Peers: EV/EBITDA92.05 – 252.35 (Mid 132.63)9 companies used · median multiple 15.9x · quartiles 11.1x – 30.3xAMAT, FSLR, GFS, MCHP, MU, NXPI, ON, TSEM, UCTT
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 71/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | 74.7% | 87 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | 65.2% | 97 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF margin · Quality | 41.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 100.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | 65.5% | 82 (vs peers) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.1x | 42 (vs peers) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 4.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | 16.0x | 16 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 2.6% | 53 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.3% | 55 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet71/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Growth94/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality94/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns55/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Valuation32/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
Memo
NVIDIA CORP (NVDA). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-07-26.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 215.9 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 65.5%; net margin 63.7%; ROE 117.2%; net debt/EBITDA 0.1x.
The estimated value range is 86.93–178.94 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 104.91 USD, the price of 200.13 USD leaves a potential of -47.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -90.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 71/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Gross margin: 74.7%
- EBIT margin: 65.2%
- FCF margin: 41.9%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 100.0%
- Revenue growth (YoY): 65.5%
- Current ratio: 4.6x
What contradicts it
- EV/Sales: 16.0x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Versus the vertical median
Semiconductors & Related Devices (SIC 3674) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | 10,262.8 bn | 291.0 | 29.3% | 40.0% | +25.0% | +36% / +307% |
| NVDANvidia Corp | 4,823.1 bn | 25.3 | 117.2% | 63.7% | +65.5% | +1% / +345% |
| AVGOBroadcom Inc. | 1,553.7 bn | 41.6 | 44.2% | 42.9% | +23.9% | −19% / +252% |
| MUMicron Technology, Inc. | 899.7 bn | 10.7 | 88.3% | 63.8% | +256.3% | +236% / +945% |
| AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc | 801.6 bn | 106.3 | 11.8% | 16.8% | +34.3% | +125% / +303% |
| INTCIntel Corporation | 309.7 bn | — | -10.9% | -20.1% | −0.5% | +44% / +30% |
| AMATApplied Materials Inc | 293.2 bn | 31.9 | 41.1% | 30.1% | +4.4% | +46% / +147% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Inc | 284.6 bn | 40.4 | 39.7% | 34.3% | +13.0% | +85% / +104% |
| ADIAnalog Devices Inc | 196.8 bn | 48.2 | 12.2% | 29.8% | +16.9% | +53% / +122% |
| MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc | 140.1 bn | 52.8 | 16.5% | 27.9% | +42.1% | +79% / +187% |
| NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V. | 66.8 bn | 20.8 | 29.2% | 23.4% | −2.7% | +36% / +30% |
| MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc. | 61.5 bn | 69.5 | 25.1% | 23.9% | +26.4% | +36% / +130% |
| MCHPMicrochip Technology Incorporated | 40.9 bn | 104.2 | 7.2% | 9.3% | +7.1% | +41% / −10% |
| ALABAstera Labs, Inc. | 39.0 bn | 89.0 | 28.2% | 29.6% | +115.1% | +42% / unavailable |
| ONOn Semiconductor Corp | 27.7 bn | 41.4 | 8.9% | 10.8% | −15.3% | +42% / −0% |
| CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding Ltd | 25.7 bn | 48.7 | 30.7% | 33.8% | +205.7% | −23% / +662% |
| QQnity Electronics, Inc. | 24.8 bn | 42.0 | 7.6% | 11.5% | +9.7% | +46% / unavailable |
| GFSGLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | 22.4 bn | 25.4 | 7.8% | 13.0% | +0.6% | +13% / −25% |
| FSLRFirst Solar, Inc. | 20.9 bn | 11.3 | 18.7% | 37.1% | +24.1% | −29% / +23% |
| MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | 17.8 bn | 74.6 | 17.2% | 20.7% | +32.6% | +33% / +178% |
| TSEMTower Semiconductor Ltd. | 16.7 bn | 76.7 | 7.9% | 14.1% | +9.1% | +38% / +443% |
| SMTCSemtech Corporation | 10.3 bn | — | -5.8% | -3.0% | +15.5% | +50% / +578% |
| RMBSRambus Inc | 8.9 bn | 34.1 | 19.6% | 33.4% | +27.1% | −13% / +23% |
| MXLMaxLinear, Inc. | 5.2 bn | — | -5.9% | -4.4% | +29.7% | +265% / +204% |
| AAOIApplied Optoelectronics, Inc. | 5.0 bn | — | -5.4% | -9.6% | +82.8% | +121% / +347% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NVDA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 132.35 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 232.91 Total return 17% · Per year 17% | 349.36 Total return 75% · Per year 75% |
| 3 years | 156.98 Total return -21% · Per year -8% | 308.02 Total return 54% · Per year 16% | 503.08 Total return 152% · Per year 36% |
| 5 years | 186.21 Total return -6% · Per year -1% | 407.36 Total return 105% · Per year 15% | 724.44 Total return 263% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 77.01
- Net margin± 53.90
- Annual revenue growth± 40.20
- Annual dilution± 4.53
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
NVIDIA is a data-center-scale AI infrastructure company that reported fiscal 2026 revenue of 215.9 billion USD, up 65% 1. In the second quarter of fiscal 2027 revenue reached 96.2 billion USD, up 106% year on year, with Data Center contributing 89.0 billion USD 3. Guidance for the third quarter points to about 108.0 billion USD, with no Data Center compute revenue from China assumed 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The CUDA software ecosystem and its libraries create a large developer base and a platform that is hard to replace.
- Data-center-scale architecture lets the company deliver integrated systems spanning chips, networking and software.
- A long record of innovation and research investment supports its leadership position in AI.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on third-party manufacturers limits control over product quantity, quality and delivery schedules.
- Long manufacturing lead times and demand estimates can produce both product shortages and excess inventory.
- Concentration of sales among a limited number of partners and distributors exposes the company to revenue risk.
Opportunities
- Wider AI adoption in enterprises and on local PCs could open new categories of demand for the company's products.
- New platforms such as Rubin could support data center growth if they enter production on schedule.
- Partnerships to finance AI infrastructure could make large-scale data center construction easier.
Threats
- Export controls and tariffs could limit sales to certain markets, including China.
- Competitors and customers developing their own chips could reduce the company's market share.
- Shortages of energy, land and capital at customers could delay deployments and reduce demand.
Risks
- Dependence on suppliers and manufacturing capacityhigh
Shortages of components or capacity can delay deliveries and affect revenue across the data center ecosystem 1.
- Demand estimationhigh
Inaccurate estimates can lead to product shortages or excess inventory, which can reduce gross margins 1.
- Export restrictionshigh
Licenses and tariffs could block or reduce sales to China, where demand remains uncertain 13.
- Financial commitments for infrastructuremedium
Guarantees for land and power, including those tied to the Ohio campus, could create large obligations if partners do not meet their payments 2.
- Investments in private companiesmedium
Investments in early-stage startups and infrastructure funds are often illiquid, and a return is not assured 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If demand for AI infrastructure keeps accelerating, Data Center growth could support revenue in the coming quarters.
- The software ecosystem and data center position could keep NVIDIA the preferred partner for customers building complex AI systems.
- If the Rubin platform enters production without delay, it could open a new phase of growth.
What would break the thesis
- If large customers build their own chips, the company's market share could decline.
- If energy, land and capital constraints slow data center construction, demand could be postponed.
- If export restrictions widen, revenue from certain markets could disappear and inventory could lead to new write-downs.
What to watch
- Third-quarter results and delivery against the revenue guidanceQ3 2027
- Timing of Rubin contribution to Data Center revenue2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
NVIDIA began as a maker of GPUs for graphics but has extended into accelerated computing, artificial intelligence, data science, autonomous vehicles and robotics. The company builds its platform on GPU architecture, CPUs, networking and the CUDA software ecosystem used by over 7.5 million developers 1. It reports two segments: Compute & Networking, covering data center and automotive, and Graphics, covering GeForce and Quadro/RTX GPUs 1.
The platform is designed at data center scale, where chips, networking, systems and software are co-designed so that hundreds of thousands of GPUs can operate as one computer 1. The Blackwell architecture launched in fiscal 2025 and Blackwell Ultra in fiscal 2026, while Rubin, in production from the third quarter of fiscal 2027, is the next generation 12.
Customers include major cloud providers, AI model makers, enterprises and the public sector, reached through OEMs, ODMs and system integrators 1. Manufacturing relies on third-party foundries and contract manufacturers, and some production is expanding into the United States and Latin America 1.
Market context
NVIDIA operates in four large markets: Data Center, Gaming, Professional Visualization and Automotive 1. The company describes AI demand as accelerating, with new AI labs and startups seeking compute capacity 3. The market is constrained by the availability of data centers, energy and capital, which could delay customer deployments 2.
Trends
- Accelerating AI infrastructure investmenttailwind
Large customers are building data centers at scale, and demand for training and inference compute remains high 3. If this demand persists, Data Center revenue could keep growing.
- Constraints on energy, land and capitalheadwind
Availability of energy, land and financing can delay customer projects, and less-capitalized companies may struggle to secure funding 2.
- Open-source AI modelsheadwind
High-quality open-source models make advanced AI broadly accessible, and if they run on competitors' platforms, demand for NVIDIA products could fall 1.
Competitive position
Competition comes from companies that operate their own fabrication facilities and have longer histories, larger customer bases and broader patent portfolios 1. Some customers have in-house expertise and can build their own solutions, and other providers offer cloud services that compete with NVIDIA's AI cloud offerings 1.
Competition is intensifying through new entrants and consolidation, and rivals may gain market share or secure foundry capacity more effectively in a supply-constrained market 1. Securing manufacturing capacity is therefore an important advantage 1.
- Providers of AI cloud services
Companies offering cloud services that compete with NVIDIA's AI cloud offerings, named among the risk factors.
- Developers of open-source models
Open-source models run on competing platforms could reduce demand for NVIDIA products.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- The Return-on-Capital Question Looming Over NVIDIA Corporation’s (NVDA) AI InvestmentsYahoo Finance — News · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- Jim Cramer Tries To Predict NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) Share Price Movement Following Anthropic CEO’s RemarksYahoo Finance — News · 14 Sept 2026 · EN
- Jim Cramer Discussed The Contradictions Surrounding NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)’s SharesYahoo Finance — News · 12 Sept 2026 · EN
- Jim Cramer Explained What Turned The Tide For NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)’s StockYahoo Finance — News · 29 Aug 2026 · EN
- Jim Cramer Revealed What Made NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)’s Shares Move Post-EarningsYahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) & Blackstone (BX): Nvidia Wants Wall Street to Lend Against AI Chips Like They’re MortgagesYahoo Finance — News · 26 Aug 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report03 Sept 2026Other events
- Quarterly report26 Aug 2026
- Current report26 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Aug 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure
- Current report02 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report30 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report18 Jun 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report20 May 2026
- Current report20 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement12 May 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-01-25 · SEC / NVIDIA Corporation · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-26 · SEC / NVIDIA Corporation · 26 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / NVIDIA Corporation · 26 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.