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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited TSM

Semiconductors & Related Devices · SIC 3674 · Vertical: Semiconductors & Related Devices (SIC 3674)

395.75USD−2.24% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is the world's largest dedicated semiconductor foundry, making chips to customers' designs from fabless firms to system integrators. Revenue rose to NT$3,809,054 million in fiscal 2025, driven by demand for high-performance computing and artificial intelligence, while the company systematically shifts production to advanced nodes.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) stock was 395.75 USD (−2.24% on the day), with market capitalisation 10,262.8 bn USD, P/E 291.0 on diluted EPS of 1.36 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.11%, beta 1.71, 52-week range 275.06–485.80 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
10,262.8 bn USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
291.0
Diluted EPS TTM 1.36 · TTM to 31 Dec 2024
E/P (TTM)
0.34%
TTM to 31 Dec 2024
Dividend yield
0.11%
DPS 12m 0.43
Beta (2y)
1.71
Volatility (1y) 40%
52-week range
275.06485.80

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
36.4
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
391.42 – 459.74
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.06 · band width 16.1%
SMA 50 / 200
433.97 / 401.10
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-9.65 / -6.04
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−18.5%−2.0%−16.5 pp—
3 months−4.4%−2.2%−2.2 pp—
6 months−5.7%+4.3%−9.9 pp—
Year to date+30.2%+10.6%+19.7 pp—
1 year+34.6%+10.5%+24.1 pp+34.8%
3 years+331.1%+73.7%+257.5 pp+35.5%
5 years+236.0%+61.7%+174.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−21.5%
30 Jun 2026 → 29 Jul 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−57.1%
14 Jan 2022 → 03 Nov 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+27.4%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 8-quarter history (min 59.6, median 111.8, max 155.8; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20172018201920202021202220232024
Revenue33.0 bn33.7 bn35.8 bn47.7 bn57.2 bn73.7 bn70.6 bn88.3 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable+2.2%+6.2%+33.3%+20.0%+28.7%−4.2%+25.0%
Net income11.6 bn11.9 bn11.8 bn18.2 bn21.4 bn32.3 bn27.8 bn35.3 bn
Net income YoYunavailable+1.9%−0.2%+53.7%+17.4%+51.3%−13.9%+27.0%
Diluted EPS0.450.460.460.700.821.251.071.36
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable+2.2%0.0%+52.2%+17.1%+52.4%−14.4%+27.1%
net %35.3%35.2%33.1%38.1%37.3%43.9%39.4%40.0%
Free cash flow8.6 bn8.4 bn5.2 bn11.2 bn9.8 bn17.2 bn9.5 bn26.5 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024

Cash
64.9 bn USD
Financial debt
2.8 bn USD
Net debt
-62.1 bn USD
Equity
130.5 bn USD
Total assets
204.1 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.02x
Current ratio
2.36x
ROE
29.0%
ROA
18.4%
FCF margin
30.1%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2022
73.7 bn
2023
70.6 bn
2024
88.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Cost of revenue
2022
29.8 bn
2023
32.2 bn
2024
38.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Gross profit
2022
43.9 bn
2023
38.4 bn
2024
49.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Research & development
2022
5.3 bn
2023
6.0 bn
2024
6.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Operating income
2022
36.5 bn
2023
30.1 bn
2024
40.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Interest expense
2022
382.4 m
2023
391.9 m
2024
320.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Pre-tax income
2022
37.2 bn
2023
32.0 bn
2024
42.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Income tax
2022
4.9 bn
2023
4.2 bn
2024
7.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Net income
2022
32.3 bn
2023
27.8 bn
2024
35.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Diluted EPS
2022
1.25
2023
1.07
2024
1.36

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2022
25.9 bn
2023
25.9 bn
2024
25.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Dividend per share
2022
0.36
2023
0.37
2024
0.43

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025derived

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2022
43.9 bn
2023
44.7 bn
2024
64.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Inventories
2022
7.2 bn
2023
8.2 bn
2024
8.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Current assets
2022
66.8 bn
2023
71.7 bn
2024
94.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2022
87.7 bn
2023
100.1 bn
2024
98.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Total assets
2022
161.6 bn
2023
180.7 bn
2024
204.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Short-term debt
2022
628.5 m
2023
303.5 m
2024
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Long-term debt
2022
154.9 m
2023
143.1 m
2024
970.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Current liabilities
2022
32.1 bn
2023
30.8 bn
2024
39.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Total liabilities
2022
66.6 bn
2023
67.9 bn
2024
73.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Equity
2022
95.0 bn
2023
112.8 bn
2024
130.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2022
25.9 bn
2023
25.9 bn
2024
25.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2022
52.4 bn
2023
40.6 bn
2024
55.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Capex
2022
35.2 bn
2023
31.0 bn
2024
29.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Free cash flow
2022
17.2 bn ≈
2023
9.5 bn ≈
2024
26.5 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025derived

Investing cash flow
2022
-38.8 bn
2023
-29.6 bn
2024
-26.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Financing cash flow
2022
-6.5 bn
2023
-6.7 bn
2024
-10.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Dividends paid
2022
9.3 bn
2023
9.5 bn
2024
11.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
25.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Revenue CAGR 3Y
15.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2024
Revenue CAGR 5Y
19.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2019 → FY 2024
EBIT growth (YoY)
34.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Net income growth (YoY)
27.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Net income CAGR 3Y
18.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2024
Net income CAGR 5Y
24.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2019 → FY 2024
EPS growth (YoY)
27.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
EPS CAGR 3Y
18.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2024
EPS CAGR 5Y
24.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2019 → FY 2024
FCF growth (YoY)
178.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2024

Profitability

Gross margin
56.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
45.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Net margin
40.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
FCF margin
30.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2024

Returns

ROE
29.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
ROA
18.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
ROIC
48.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
ROCE
24.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Payout ratio (EPS)
31.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Payout ratio (FCF)
41.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2024

Balance sheet

Net debt
-62.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Interest coverage
126.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2024

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Cash ratio
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024

Cash

Operating cash flow
55.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Capital expenditure
29.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Free cash flow
26.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2024
FCF conversion
75.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
10,262.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Enterprise value
10,200.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Market cap / net income TTM
290.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2024
P/E (TTM)
291.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Earnings yield
0.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
P/B
79.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
P/S
116.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
253.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
EV/Sales
115.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
P/FCF
386.7x
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
FCF yield
0.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Dividend yield
0.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024

4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 48 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])

Closing price

395.75 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 10,262.8 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
10,262.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
P/E (TTM)
291.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2024
P/B
79.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
29.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2024 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2024
Net margin
40.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Revenue growth (YoY)
25.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2024
Dividend yield
0.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2024

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2024
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2024
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2024
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Dec 2025
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 16 Apr 2026
verified 254derived 8

The data is older than the freshness threshold.

Score by group

  • Valuation2
  • Returns35
  • Quality75
  • Balance sheet92
  • Growth62

Estimated value range

Low
16.63
USD per share
Mid
22.62
USD per share
High
37.67
USD per share
Price: 395.75 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -94.3% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -1,649.4% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 13.84 – 47.00 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)19.42 – 28.35 (Mid 22.91)
    WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 26.8 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/Sales13.84 – 47.00 (Mid 22.34)
    26 companies used · median multiple 5.9x · quartiles 3.4x – 13.1x
    AAOI, ADI, ALGM, AMAT, AMD, AVGO, FSLR, GFS, ICHR, INTC, JKS, MCHP, MRAM, MRVL, MTSI, MU, NVDA, NXPI, ON, PENG, Q, QUIK, SPCB, TE, TXN, WOLF
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Semiconductors & Related Devices (SIC 3674)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 48/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
Gross margin · Quality56.1%40 (on a fixed band)11%
EBIT margin · Quality45.7%92 (vs peers)9%
FCF margin · Quality30.1%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth15.5%62 (on a fixed band)18%
Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth25.0%62 (vs peers)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.4x92 (on a fixed band)7%
EV/Sales · Valuation115.6x0 (vs peers)18%
FCF yield · Valuation0.3%5 (on a fixed band)14%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.1%35 (on a fixed band)5%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial92/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Growth62/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality75/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns35/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
  • Valuation2/100 · 2/2 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 88.3 bn USD in 2024; YoY growth 25.0%; net margin 40.0%; ROE 29.3%.

The estimated value range is 16.63–37.67 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 22.62 USD, the price of 395.75 USD leaves a potential of -94.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -1,649.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 48/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • EBIT margin: 45.7%
  • FCF margin: 30.1%
  • Current ratio: 2.4x

What contradicts it

  • EV/Sales: 115.6x
  • FCF yield: 0.3%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Semiconductors & Related Devices (SIC 3674) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
291.0x
vertical median 42.3x
above median (+587.8%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 18.3x
P/S
116.3x
vertical median 5.8x
above median (+1,898.1%)
P/B
79.3x
vertical median 4.3x
above median (+1,726.9%)
ROE
29.3%
vertical median 8.9%
above median (+228.9%)
Net margin
40.0%
vertical median 10.8%
above median (+269.9%)
EBIT margin
45.7%
vertical median 10.7%
above median (+328.9%)
Revenue YoY
25.0%
vertical median 16.9%
above median (+48.2%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.1x
Dividend yield
0.1%
vertical median 0.7%
below median (−84.5%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited10,262.8 bn291.029.3%40.0%+25.0%+35% / +331%
NVDANvidia Corp4,981.2 bn26.1117.2%63.7%+65.5%+17% / +342%
AVGOBroadcom Inc.1,585.5 bn42.444.2%42.9%+23.9%−18% / +259%
MUMicron Technology, Inc.967.5 bn11.588.3%63.8%+256.3%+262% / +1,023%
AMDAdvanced Micro Devices Inc790.0 bn124.510.1%15.6%+34.3%+122% / +299%
INTCIntel Corporation321.8 bn—-10.9%-20.1%−0.5%+49% / +35%
AMATApplied Materials Inc303.1 bn32.941.1%30.1%+4.4%+51% / +155%
TXNTexas Instruments Inc285.5 bn40.539.7%34.3%+13.0%+86% / +105%
ADIAnalog Devices Inc203.4 bn49.812.2%29.8%+16.9%+58% / +129%
MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc150.8 bn56.816.5%27.9%+42.1%+92% / +209%
NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V.66.2 bn20.729.2%23.4%−2.7%+35% / +29%
MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc.64.8 bn73.225.1%23.9%+26.4%+43% / +142%
MCHPMicrochip Technology Incorporated42.3 bn107.77.2%9.3%+7.1%+45% / −7%
ALABAstera Labs, Inc.40.5 bn115.825.8%30.7%+115.1%+48% / unavailable
CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding Ltd28.4 bn53.830.7%33.8%+205.7%−15% / +743%
ONOn Semiconductor Corp28.3 bn42.28.9%10.8%−15.3%+45% / +2%
QQnity Electronics, Inc.24.9 bn40.18.9%12.4%+9.7%+47% / unavailable
GFSGLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.22.4 bn25.47.8%13.0%+0.6%+13% / −25%
FSLRFirst Solar, Inc.20.0 bn10.818.7%37.1%+24.1%−32% / +18%
MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.18.0 bn75.317.2%20.7%+32.6%+35% / +180%
RMBSRambus Inc8.9 bn34.119.6%33.4%+27.1%−13% / +23%
ALGMAllegro Microsystems, Inc.5.8 bn209.13.2%3.1%+22.8%+17% / +15%
AAOIApplied Optoelectronics, Inc.5.4 bn—-5.4%-9.6%+82.8%+139% / +383%
HIMXHimax Technologies, Inc.3.6 bn80.34.9%5.3%−8.2%+38% / +83%
KLICKulicke And Soffa Industries, Inc.3.6 bn31.513.2%12.2%−7.4%+52% / +33%

1- and 3-year price returns: for TSM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
259.04
Total return -34% · Per year -34%
455.87
Total return 15% · Per year 15%
683.81
Total return 73% · Per year 73%
3 years
307.26
Total return -22% · Per year -8%
602.89
Total return 53% · Per year 15%
984.69
Total return 149% · Per year 36%
5 years
364.46
Total return -7% · Per year -2%
797.33
Total return 102% · Per year 15%
1,417.95
Total return 259% · Per year 29%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 150.72
  • Net margin± 105.51
  • Annual revenue growth± 78.69
  • Annual dilution± 8.87

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 16 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (22 Oct 2026), 6-K (15 Oct 2026), 6-K (08 Oct 2026), 6-K (24 Sept 2026), 6-K (10 Sept 2026), 6-K (01 Sept 2026).

In brief

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is the world's largest dedicated semiconductor foundry, making chips to customers' designs from fabless firms to system integrators. Revenue rose to NT$3,809,054 million in fiscal 2025, driven by demand for high-performance computing and artificial intelligence, while the company systematically shifts production to advanced nodes.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Gross margin rose in 2025, showing the company's ability to spread high fixed costs over a larger output volume 1.
  • The customer base is broad, from fabless companies to system integrators, which helps smooth demand fluctuations 1.

Weaknesses

  • Geographic concentration of revenue on customers headquartered in North America is high and rose in 2025 1.
  • Most sales are in U.S. dollars while reporting is in NT dollars, exposing reported results to currency movements 1.
  • Fab fixed costs are large, and unused capacity could weigh on unit costs if demand falls 1.

Opportunities

  • Demand for high-performance computing and artificial intelligence could support new orders on advanced nodes and advanced packaging 1.
  • Capacity expansion across several countries could reduce dependence on a single region, if the plans are carried out 1.

Threats

  • A decline in demand for advanced computing could leave new capacity underused, affecting margins 1.
  • Currency movements could again affect revenue reported in the local currency 1.
  • Competitors expanding capacity or developing their own technologies could reduce market share if execution slips 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on artificial intelligence demandhigh

    Recent growth rests on demand for advanced computing, and a slowdown in AI investment could affect orders and capacity utilization 1.

  • Currency exposuremedium

    Revenue is in U.S. dollars while reporting is in NT dollars, so exchange rate moves can change reported figures 1.

  • Large capital investmentsmedium

    Expected spending for 2026 is very large and may be adjusted depending on market conditions, creating long-term financial commitments 1.

  • Customer and regional concentrationmedium

    The high share of customers in North America could make revenue sensitive to policy or demand changes in that region 1.

  • Accounting estimateslow

    Depreciation, revenue recognition and deferred tax assets depend on estimates that may differ from actual results, affecting reporting 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Leadership in advanced nodes and demand for AI could support revenue and margin growth over the medium term, if technology execution holds 1.
  • Gross margin rose in 2025, and productive scale can dilute fixed costs in strong periods 1.
  • Capacity plans and next-generation technologies could expand the offering if delivered on schedule 1.

What would break the thesis

  • If AI investment slows, newly added capacity could remain underused and pressure margins 1.
  • Local currency appreciation reduced reported revenue and could do so again in future periods 1.
  • Concentration on a few large customers in North America could make results vulnerable to order changes 1.

What to watch

  • Actual pace of capital expenditure against the US$52 billion to US$56 billion range2026
  • Trend in gross margin and the effect of the exchange rateQ1 2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 16 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (22 Oct 2026), 6-K (15 Oct 2026), 6-K (08 Oct 2026), 6-K (24 Sept 2026), 6-K (10 Sept 2026), 6-K (01 Sept 2026).

The business

The company operates as a dedicated foundry, manufacturing semiconductors based on designs provided by customers, and also offers design, mask making, TSMC 3DFabric advanced stacking and packaging, and testing services 1. Net revenue for 2025 was NT$3,809,054 million (US$121,423 million) and net income attributable to shareholders was NT$1,697,604 million (US$54,116 million) 1. Wafer fabrication accounted for approximately 86% of net revenue in 2025, with the rest mainly from packaging and testing, mask making, design and royalty income 1.

The company operates fabs in Taiwan, the United States, China, and Japan, and is expanding capacity for 2- and 3-nanometer nodes and advanced packaging 1. Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to be between US$52 billion and US$56 billion, which may be adjusted depending on market conditions 1.

Segments

Packaging, testing, mask making and design

The remaining revenue, described in the report as coming from packaging and testing, mask making, design and royalty income, complements the service offering to customers 1. Advanced packaging, including TSMC 3DFabric, SoIC and CoWoS, is presented as a strategic component for high-performance computing 1.

High-performance computing

The report describes high-performance computing as the key growth driver, with AI accelerators, server processors and networking chips built on advanced nodes 1. The platform is treated as a priority for investment and customer collaboration 1.

Market context

Demand is framed around the 5G, artificial intelligence and high-performance computing megatrends, which the report considers the basis of a period of higher growth 1. Concentration on advanced nodes and HPC customers could make the market react quickly to changes in AI investment, if those were to shift 1.

Trends

  • Strong demand for artificial intelligencetailwind

    The report says new AI products such as GPUs, ASICs and servers support demand on advanced nodes and advanced packaging 1. The effect is favorable for both revenue and capacity plans 1.

  • Migration to advanced nodesmixed

    The share of 3- and 5-nanometer nodes in wafer revenue has risen year on year while older nodes have declined 1. This process supports margins but concentrates revenue on fewer technologies 1.

  • High capital expendituremixed

    Investments for 2026 are expected between US$52 billion and US$56 billion for capacity, 2- and 3-nanometer nodes and packaging 1. Such spending could raise future capacity if demand holds, but weighs on cash flow if demand falls 1.

  • Exchange rateheadwind

    Almost all sales are in U.S. dollars while the financial statements are published in NT dollars 1. Appreciation of the local currency reduced reported revenue in 2025 1.

Competitive position

The stated advantage is scale and capacity, especially for advanced technologies, combined with close customer relationships and a full service offering 1. Differentiation depends on maintaining yields and technological leadership on new nodes 1.

  • Other dedicated semiconductor foundries

    Foundry competitors that could contest customers on advanced nodes, in line with the segment description in the report 1.

  • Integrated device manufacturers

    Manufacturers that produce in-house and could reduce demand for external services, a factor implied by the customer classification in the report 1.

  • Advanced packaging providers

    Companies offering stacking and packaging solutions, an area where the company is building its own 3DFabric offering 1.

  • Systems companies with in-house chip design

    System companies that design their own chips and may choose in-house or outsourced production, per the customer classification in the report 1.

News & filings

In the press

Sources

  1. [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited · 16 Apr 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.