olivLaw · US equity research
ATI Inc. ATI
Steel Pipe & Tubes · SIC 3317 · Vertical: Primary metal industries (SIC 331x)
ATI Inc. produces specialty materials and complex components from nickel-based alloys, titanium and zirconium, with a focus on jet engines and defense. Aerospace and defense demand pushed the company's results higher in 2026, and management raised its full-year outlook.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, ATI Inc. (ATI) stock was 179.09 USD (−0.69% on the day), with market capitalisation 24.3 bn USD, P/E 44.7 on diluted EPS of 4.00 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 1.62, 52-week range 94.80–231.78 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.4 bn USD (+26.5% YoY), net income of 189.8 m USD (+72.5% YoY), diluted EPS 1.37 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 49.5
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 156.46 – 199.80
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.52 · band width 24.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 188.51 / 174.16
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -4.63 / -5.78
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −7.3% | −1.1% | −6.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −12.7% | −0.5% | −12.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +8.5% | +4.4% | +4.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +56.1% | +12.3% | +43.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +86.5% | +13.5% | +73.0 pp | +6.4% |
| 3 years | +329.5% | +76.4% | +253.1 pp | +20.6% |
| 5 years | +909.5% | +63.7% | +845.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 27 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 924.1 m | 908.6 m | 897.9 m | 870.2 m | 903.7 m | 888.6 m | 951.3 m | 1.0 bn |
| Gross profit | 248.6 m | 235.8 m | 242.5 m | 255.3 m | 273.4 m | 262.9 m | 309.8 m | 380.2 m |
| SG&A | 89.0 m | 85.0 m | 82.8 m | 94.6 m | 102.7 m | 92.1 m | 95.7 m | 107.7 m |
| Operating income | 208.9 m | 146.9 m | 161.0 m | 162.4 m | 170.6 m | 163.8 m | 220.0 m | 271.9 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 39.1 m | 40.8 m | 41.6 m | 42.6 m | 43.1 m | 45.0 m | 44.0 m | 44.9 m |
| Pre-tax income | 175.0 m | 121.5 m | 133.3 m | 144.6 m | 122.9 m | 136.6 m | 192.9 m | 244.8 m |
| Income tax | 32.9 m | 21.0 m | 29.3 m | 31.0 m | 22.4 m | 16.1 m | 38.6 m | 51.5 m |
| Net income | 137.1 m | 97.0 m | 100.7 m | 110.0 m | 96.6 m | 118.2 m | 151.0 m | 189.8 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.94 ≈ | 0.67 | 0.70 | 0.78 | 0.69 ≈ | 0.85 | 1.09 | 1.37 |
| Operating cash flow | 380.9 m | -92.5 m | 161.5 m ≈ | 229.5 m ≈ | 315.8 m | 128.2 m | 131.8 m ≈ | 154.6 m ≈ |
| Capex | 47.3 m | 53.3 m | 72.1 m ≈ | 62.5 m ≈ | 92.7 m | 55.2 m | 68.6 m ≈ | 92.8 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 70.0 m | 70.0 m | 250.0 m | 150.0 m | 0 | 75.0 m | 50.0 m ≈ | 70.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 89 percentile of its own 27-quarter history (min 4.5, median 19.0, max 57.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.0 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +14.8% | +1.9% | −27.7% | −6.1% | +37.0% | +8.8% | +4.5% | +5.2% |
| Net income | 222.4 m | 252.5 m | -1.6 bn | 184.6 m | 323.5 m | 410.8 m | 367.8 m | 404.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +13.5% | −722.8% | unavailable | +75.2% | +27.0% | −10.5% | +9.9% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.61 | 1.81 | -12.43 | 1.32 | 2.23 | 2.81 | 2.55 | 2.85 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +12.4% | −786.7% | unavailable | +68.9% | +26.0% | −9.3% | +11.8% |
| net % | 5.5% | 6.1% | -52.7% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% |
| Free cash flow | 253.6 m | 61.9 m | 30.4 m | -136.5 m | 94.0 m | -114.8 m | 168.1 m | 333.7 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 28 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 416.7 m USD
- Financial debt
- 31.1 m USD
- Net debt
- -385.6 m USD
- Equity
- 1.9 bn USD
- Total assets
- 5.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.02x
- Current ratio
- 2.66x
- ROE
- 20.9%
- ROA
- 7.8%
- FCF margin
- 7.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.7 bn | 2.5 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 292.8 m | 333.2 m | 714.2 m | 802.6 m | 898.2 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 14.1 m | 16.5 m | 16.3 m | 20.7 m | 19.6 m | 21.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 201.0 m | 226.9 m | 297.5 m | 328.1 m | 342.3 m | 365.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -1.3 bn | 117.6 m | 316.1 m | 466.4 m | 608.9 m | 640.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 143.3 m | 143.9 m | 142.9 m | 146.1 m | 151.5 m | 168.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -1.2 bn ≈ | 261.5 m ≈ | 459.0 m ≈ | 612.5 m ≈ | 760.4 m ≈ | 809.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 96.1 m | 97.6 m | 87.4 m | 92.8 m | 108.2 m | 110.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -1.5 bn | 233.4 m | 354.6 m | 295.2 m | 486.1 m | 522.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 77.7 m | 26.8 m | 15.5 m | -128.2 m | 103.4 m | 103.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -1.6 bn | 184.6 m | 323.5 m | 410.8 m | 367.8 m | 404.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -12.43 | 1.32 | 2.23 | 2.81 | 2.55 | 2.85 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 126.5 m | 152.7 m | 151.2 m | 150.0 m | 146.6 m | 141.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 645.9 m | 687.7 m | 584.0 m | 743.9 m | 721.2 m | 416.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 345.8 m | 470.0 m | 579.2 m | 625.0 m | 709.2 m | 686.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 997.1 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 240.7 m | 227.9 m | 227.2 m | 227.2 m | 227.2 m | 225.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.0 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.4 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 290.6 m | 375.5 m | 553.3 m | 524.8 m | 609.1 m | 568.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 17.8 m | 131.3 m | 41.7 m | 31.9 m | 180.4 m | 31.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 653.3 m | 856.4 m | 963.9 m | 977.1 m | 1.2 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 641.4 m | 832.7 m | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 166.9 m | 16.1 m | 224.9 m | 85.9 m | 407.2 m | 614.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 136.5 m | 152.6 m | 130.9 m | 200.7 m | 239.1 m | 280.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 30.4 m ≈ | -136.5 m ≈ | 94.0 m ≈ | -114.8 m ≈ | 168.1 m ≈ | 333.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -128.7 m | -77.3 m | -126.7 m | -193.2 m | -159.6 m | -234.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 116.9 m | 103.0 m | -201.9 m | 267.2 m | -260.4 m | -699.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 139.9 m | 85.2 m | 260.0 m | 470.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 57 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 24.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation16
- Returns11
- Quality86
- Balance sheet98
- Growth54
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 54.21 – 111.91 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)54.21 – 80.83 (Mid 64.61)WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 511.4 m USD · terminal value share of EV 73%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA70.36 – 111.91 (Mid 89.03)7 companies used · median multiple 11.7x · quartiles 9.1x – 14.8xCRS, MT, ROCK, STLD, SXC, TWI, WOR
- Peers: P/E63.09 – 110.93 (Mid 71.42)11 companies used · median multiple 17.8x · quartiles 15.8x – 27.7xCMC, CRS, FRD, IIIN, MT, MTUS, NUE, NWPX, STLD, TS, WOR
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 57/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 39.8% | 100 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 11.1% | 83 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 75.8% | 65 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 6.1% | 51 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 8.5% | 57 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.4x | 100 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 7.5x | 92 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 44.7x | 15 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 23.9x | 13 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 1.7% | 22 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.8% | 11 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet98/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth54/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality86/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial11/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation16/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ATI Inc. (ATI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-27.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 5.2%; net margin 11.1%; ROE 29.9%; net debt/EBITDA -0.4x.
The estimated value range is 63.09–110.93 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 71.42 USD, the price of 179.09 USD leaves a potential of -60.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -150.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 57/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 39.8%
- Net margin: 11.1%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.4x
- Interest coverage: 7.5x
- Current ratio: 2.8x
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 44.7x
- EV/EBITDA: 23.9x
- FCF yield: 1.7%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.8%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Primary metal industries (SIC 331x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 23 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXTernium S.A. | 97.5 bn | 221.1 | 3.6% | 2.7% | −11.6% | +32% / +23% |
| NUENucor Corp | 60.8 bn | 35.6 | 8.2% | 5.4% | +5.7% | +68% / +58% |
| TSTenaris SA | 60.6 bn | 31.4 | 11.6% | 16.1% | −4.3% | +41% / +63% |
| MTArcelorMittal | 46.0 bn | 14.7 | 6.1% | 5.1% | −1.7% | +40% / +140% |
| STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc. | 34.1 bn | 17.7 | 20.8% | 8.8% | +3.6% | +43% / +102% |
| ATIATI Inc. | 24.3 bn | 44.7 | 29.9% | 11.1% | +5.2% | +87% / +329% |
| CRSCarpenter Technology Corporation | 13.8 bn | 24.6 | 27.8% | 17.9% | +8.6% | −12% / +294% |
| CMCCommercial Metals Company | 6.8 bn | 10.6 | 14.8% | 7.0% | +20.5% | −2% / +37% |
| WORWorthington Enterprises, Inc | 3.0 bn | 18.5 | 16.3% | 11.5% | +19.7% | +12% / +38% |
| WSWorthington Steel, Inc. | 1.8 bn | — | -3.6% | -0.7% | +11.3% | +6% / +31% |
| ROCKGibraltar Industries, Inc. | 940.7 m | — | -15.6% | -10.4% | +11.0% | −37% / −53% |
| SXCSuncoke Energy, Inc. | 823.3 m | — | -8.5% | -2.9% | −5.1% | +49% / +4% |
| NWPXNWPX Infrastructure, Inc. | 797.7 m | 15.2 | 13.0% | 8.9% | +6.8% | +41% / +205% |
| MTUSMetallus Inc. | 650.2 m | 30.8 | 3.4% | 1.9% | +6.9% | −7% / −22% |
| IIINInsteel Industries Inc. | 521.4 m | 17.8 | 7.9% | 4.0% | +14.2% | −12% / −21% |
| TWITitan International, Inc. | 303.7 m | — | -22.9% | -5.7% | −0.9% | −42% / −64% |
| FRDFriedman Industries Inc | 256.1 m | 16.4 | 10.4% | 2.7% | −13.9% | +75% / +196% |
| LUDLuda Technology Group Limited | 86.4 m | 127.0 | 3.2% | 1.7% | −25.3% | −58% / unavailable |
| HUDIHuadi International Group Co., Ltd. | 7.3 m | — | -1.8% | -2.2% | −15.3% | −62% / −84% |
| SIDNational Steel Co | — | — | -17.4% | -5.9% | −3.9% | −51% / −76% |
| PKXPosco Holdings Inc. | — | — | 2.1% | 1.5% | −4.7% | −8% / −48% |
| GGBGerdau S.A. | — | — | 2.5% | 2.0% | +4.2% | +22% / +18% |
| SIMGRUPO SIMEC, S.A.B. de C.V. | — | — | 19.2% | 31.2% | −18.2% | −8% / −15% |
| ASTLAlgoma Steel Group Inc. | — | — | -98.5% | -47.2% | −25.4% | +17% / −41% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ATI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 109.96 Total return -39% · Per year -39% | 194.26 Total return 8% · Per year 8% | 292.40 Total return 63% · Per year 63% |
| 3 years | 110.28 Total return -38% · Per year -15% | 218.86 Total return 22% · Per year 7% | 361.20 Total return 102% · Per year 26% |
| 5 years | 110.59 Total return -38% · Per year -9% | 246.58 Total return 38% · Per year 7% | 446.19 Total return 149% · Per year 20% |
- Exit P/E± 54.72
- Net margin± 38.30
- Annual revenue growth± 30.95
- Annual dilution± 3.22
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
ATI Inc. produces specialty materials and complex components from nickel-based alloys, titanium and zirconium, with a focus on jet engines and defense. Aerospace and defense demand pushed the company's results higher in 2026, and management raised its full-year outlook.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has its own materials science capabilities and a qualified asset base for jet engines, giving it a differentiation advantage 1.
- Most HPMC products are sold under multi-year agreements, which brings visibility into revenue 1.
- Margin gains in 2026 show that pricing and product mix are improving profitability, and debt has been reduced 23.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a small number of large aerospace and defense customers raises the risk of revenue loss if one relationship deteriorates 1.
- The company relies on raw materials and energy bought from suppliers whose availability can be volatile 1.
- The AA&S segment is more exposed to industrial and conventional energy cycles, which can reduce demand quickly 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Cyclical demandmedium
Demand from aviation and industry is cyclical, and an economic downturn can affect prices and profitability 1.
- Dependence on key customershigh
Loss or unfavourable renegotiation of a major contract could significantly reduce revenue 1.
- Raw material volatilityhigh
Prices for nickel, titanium and other materials can rise quickly, and cost recovery through pricing is not always complete 1.
- Geopolitical and export risksmedium
Armed conflicts and sanctions can disrupt supply chains and international sales 1.
- Shortage of skilled workersmedium
Difficulty recruiting technical staff can raise costs and slow production 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Sales and margin growth in the first half of fiscal 2026 show that pricing and product mix are working in the company's favour 23.
- A record backlog and raised full-year guidance suggest visibility into future revenue 3.
- A leading position in jet engine alloys, backed by long-term contracts, could support growth over several years 1.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on aerospace and defense makes the company vulnerable to shocks in these industries if the cycle turns 1.
- Rising production costs in HPMC and qualification issues at new facilities could limit margins 3.
- Raw material volatility and trade restrictions could reduce profitability if costs cannot be fully passed on to customers 1.
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
ATI is a global producer of specialty materials and technically complex components, whose strength comes from materials science and proprietary process technologies. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and operates two segments: High Performance Materials & Components (HPMC) and Advanced Alloys & Solutions (AA&S). According to the fiscal 2025 annual report, sales reached 4.6 billion USD, the highest total since 2012 1.
Segments
High Performance Materials & Components (HPMC)
The HPMC segment makes high performance materials, precision forgings and metallic powders for jet engines, with approximately 92% of its revenue coming from aerospace and defense 1. Demand is driven mainly by the commercial aerospace cycle, and many contracts run for several years 1.
Trends
- Growth of next-generation jet enginestailwind
Next-generation jet engines use advanced nickel-based alloys and metallic powders, which could support long-term demand for ATI's products. The company has been expanding its capacity for advanced powders 1.
- Defense demandtailwind
Defense sales grew strongly in 2025 and 2026, and management expects continued growth in this market 12. If military budgets change, the pace of this growth could slow.
- Cyclicality of customer industriesheadwind
Customers in general industry, conventional energy and automotive are sensitive to economic cycles, and demand for AA&S products can drop quickly 1. This risk weighs mainly on the AA&S segment.
- Raw material and energy costsmixed
Prices for nickel, titanium and energy have been volatile, and producers may struggle to pass these costs fully on to customers 1. Trade rules and export restrictions can add to the pressure.
Competitive position
In the HPMC segment, principal competitors include Berkshire Hathaway through Precision Castparts, Howmet Aerospace, Carpenter Technology and Aubert & Duval 1. In AA&S, competition comes from Haynes International and VDM Metals, a subsidiary of Acerinox 1. Major aerospace customers such as Boeing and Airbus also maintain supply relationships with several vendors 1.
- Berkshire Hathaway (Precision Castparts)BRK.B
Competes in nickel alloys, titanium alloys and precision forgings for aerospace, through Precision Castparts 1.
- Howmet AerospaceHWM
Competes in titanium alloys and aerospace components 1.
- Carpenter TechnologyCRS
Competes in nickel-based alloys, superalloys and specialty steels 1.
- Haynes InternationalHAYN
Competes in nickel and specialty alloys in the AA&S segment 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Jun 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Jun 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Jun 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report19 May 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
- Current report30 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-28 · SEC / ATI Inc. · 20 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-28 · SEC / ATI Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / ATI Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.