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olivLaw · US equity research

NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. NWPX

Steel Pipe & Tubes · SIC 3317 · Vertical: Primary metal industries (SIC 331x)

82.83USD−9.90% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

NWPX Infrastructure makes steel pipe and concrete products for water and sewer infrastructure in North America, through two segments: Water Transmission Systems and Precast. It matters now because demand is supported by the need to renew aging water infrastructure, and in the second quarter of 2026 the company reported net sales of $159.5 million.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. (NWPX) stock was 82.83 USD (−9.90% on the day), with market capitalisation 797.7 m USD, P/E 15.2 on diluted EPS of 5.46 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.05, 52-week range 53.85–149.94 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 179.4 m USD (+18.7% YoY), net income of 18.2 m USD (+35.0% YoY), diluted EPS 1.86 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
797.7 m USD
shares as of 21 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
15.2
Diluted EPS TTM 5.46 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
6.59%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.05
Volatility (1y) 41%
52-week range
53.85149.94

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
21.6
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
89.59 – 104.72
below the lower band · %B -0.45 · band width 15.6%
SMA 50 / 200
101.86 / 102.21
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-3.03 / -2.15
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−21.5%−1.1%−20.4 pp—
3 months−30.1%−0.5%−29.6 pp—
6 months−24.3%+4.4%−28.7 pp—
Year to date+32.5%+12.3%+20.2 pp—
1 year+36.1%+13.5%+22.6 pp+6.4%
3 years+212.2%+76.4%+135.8 pp+20.6%
5 years+226.2%+63.7%+162.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−44.8%
30 Jun 2026 → 05 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−44.8%
30 Jun 2026 → 05 Nov 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+26.7%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
179.4 m USD
+18.7% YoY
Net income
18.2 m USD
+35.0% YoY
Diluted EPS
1.86
+34.8% YoY
net / operating
10.2% / 13.6%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue119.6 m116.1 m133.2 m151.1 m125.6 m138.3 m159.5 m179.4 m
Cost of revenue97.2 m96.8 m107.8 m118.9 m98.9 m111.6 m125.1 m141.2 m
Gross profit22.4 m19.4 m25.4 m32.2 m26.8 m26.7 m34.4 m38.2 m
SG&A11.9 m13.8 m12.1 m13.1 m13.7 m14.0 m13.2 m13.9 m
Operating income10.5 m5.6 m13.2 m19.0 m13.0 m12.7 m21.2 m24.3 m
Interest expense911.0 k635.0 k763.0 k788.0 k423.0 k348.0 k320.0 k372.0 k
Pre-tax income9.7 m4.9 m12.5 m18.2 m10.8 m12.5 m21.5 m24.0 m
Income tax-436.0 k977.0 k3.4 m4.7 m1.9 m2.0 m5.6 m5.7 m
Net income10.1 m4.0 m9.1 m13.5 m8.9 m10.5 m15.8 m18.2 m
Diluted EPS1.00 ≈0.390.911.380.90 ≈1.081.621.86
Operating cash flow36.1 m4.8 m5.4 m ≈21.0 m ≈36.0 m29.3 m14.1 m ≈27.4 m ≈
Capex4.2 m3.7 m3.5 m ≈7.8 m ≈5.2 m3.5 m4.2 m ≈7.0 m ≈
Share repurchases007.5 m ≈8.2 m ≈2.7 m2.4 m306.0 k ≈1.2 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 65 percentile of its own 34-quarter history (min 7.6, median 14.3, max 262.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue172.1 m279.3 m285.9 m333.3 m457.7 m444.4 m492.5 m526.0 m
Revenue YoY+29.6%+62.3%+2.4%+16.6%+37.3%−2.9%+10.8%+6.8%
Net income20.3 m27.9 m19.1 m11.5 m31.1 m21.1 m34.2 m35.4 m
Net income YoYunavailable+37.4%−31.7%−39.5%+170.3%−32.4%+62.3%+3.5%
Diluted EPS2.092.851.931.163.112.093.403.56
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable+36.4%−32.3%−39.9%+168.1%−32.8%+62.7%+4.7%
net %11.8%10.0%6.7%3.5%6.8%4.7%6.9%6.7%
Free cash flow-22.2 m34.3 m42.1 m-19.1 m-5.3 m35.2 m34.3 m47.1 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
2.3 m USD
Financial debt
11.5 m USD
Net debt
9.2 m USD
Equity
394.8 m USD
Total assets
579.6 m USD
Debt / equity
0.03x
Current ratio
3.78x
ROE
9.2%
ROA
6.1%
FCF margin
9.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
444.4 m
2024
492.5 m
2025
526.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
366.7 m
2024
397.1 m
2025
422.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
77.6 m
2024
95.4 m
2025
103.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
43.8 m
2024
47.2 m
2025
52.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
33.9 m
2024
48.2 m
2025
50.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
15.8 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2024verified

EBITDA
2023
49.7 m ≈
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Mar 2024derived

Interest expense
2023
4.9 m
2024
5.7 m
2025
2.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
29.3 m
2024
42.4 m
2025
46.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
8.2 m
2024
8.2 m
2025
11.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
21.1 m
2024
34.2 m
2025
35.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
2.09
2024
3.40
2025
3.56

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
10.1 m
2024
10.1 m
2025
9.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
4.1 m
2024
5.0 m
2025
2.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
91.2 m
2024
79.8 m
2025
74.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
272.5 m
2024
262.5 m
2025
251.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
144.0 m
2024
150.5 m
2025
157.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
55.5 m
2024
55.5 m
2025
55.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
31.1 m
2024
27.0 m
2025
23.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
597.9 m
2024
589.7 m
2025
579.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
31.1 m
2024
27.8 m
2025
22.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
10.8 m
2024
0
2025
3.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
0
2024
11.5 m
2025
8.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
96.2 m
2024
75.1 m
2025
66.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
257.5 m
2024
215.7 m
2025
184.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
340.4 m †
2024
374.0 m †
2025
394.8 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
53.5 m
2024
55.1 m
2025
67.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
18.3 m
2024
20.8 m
2025
20.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
35.2 m ≈
2024
34.3 m ≈
2025
47.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-20.4 m
2024
-20.7 m
2025
-20.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-32.7 m
2024
-33.4 m
2025
-49.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
707.0 k
2024
4.4 m
2025
18.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
6.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
4.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
13.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
5.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
3.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
4.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
13.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
4.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
4.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
13.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
37.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
20.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
11.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
8.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
14.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
13.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
8.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
13.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
12.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
3.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
48.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
106.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
19.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
86.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
162.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
63 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
26 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
797.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
800.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
14.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
15.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
6.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
1.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
11.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
1.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
9.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
10.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
4.06
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Attractive profile

Score: 72 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']

Closing price

82.83 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 797.7 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
797.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
15.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
13.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
8.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
6.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 21 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 29 Oct 2026
verified 2486derived 172

Score by group

  • Growth35
  • Returns12
  • Balance sheet100
  • Valuation91
  • Quality85

Estimated value range

Low
107.05
USD per share
Mid
123.30
USD per share
High
177.10
USD per share
Price: 82.83 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 48.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 32.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 93.05 – 184.40 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)121.04 – 184.40 (Mid 145.73)
    WACC 9.2% · starting FCFF 88.0 m USD · terminal value share of EV 73%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -18.2%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E93.05 – 169.81 (Mid 100.87)
    11 companies used · median multiple 18.5x · quartiles 17.0x – 31.1x
    ATI, CMC, CRS, FRD, IIIN, MT, MTUS, NUE, STLD, TS, WOR
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Primary metal industries (SIC 331x)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Attractive profile · Score 72/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality13.2%80 (vs peers)14%
Net margin · Quality8.9%78 (vs peers)8%
FCF conversion · Quality162.4%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth4.7%40 (on a fixed band)11%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth4.6%31 (on a fixed band)11%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet48.6x100 (on a fixed band)8%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.6x100 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation15.2x85 (vs peers)14%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation10.9%100 (on a fixed band)11%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.8%12 (on a fixed band)8%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth35/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality85/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial12/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation91/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. (NWPX). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 526.0 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 6.8%; net margin 8.9%; ROE 13.0%.

The estimated value range is 107.05–177.10 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 123.30 USD, the price of 82.83 USD leaves a potential of 48.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 32.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 72/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 13.2%
  • Net margin: 8.9%
  • FCF conversion: 162.4%
  • Interest coverage: 48.6x
  • Current ratio: 2.6x
  • P/E (TTM): 15.2x
  • FCF yield: 10.9%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.8%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Primary metal industries (SIC 331x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 23 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
15.2x
vertical median 24.6x
below median (−38.3%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 13.4x
P/S
1.3x
vertical median 0.7x
above median (+79.1%)
P/B
1.8x
vertical median 1.7x
above median (+9.2%)
ROE
13.0%
vertical median 3.6%
above median (+265.1%)
Net margin
8.9%
vertical median 2.7%
above median (+231.1%)
EBIT margin
11.8%
vertical median 4.9%
above median (+139.1%)
Revenue YoY
6.8%
vertical median -0.9%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 1.6x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 0.8%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
TXTernium S.A.97.5 bn221.13.6%2.7%−11.6%+32% / +23%
NUENucor Corp60.8 bn35.68.2%5.4%+5.7%+68% / +58%
TSTenaris SA60.6 bn31.411.6%16.1%−4.3%+41% / +63%
MTArcelorMittal46.0 bn14.76.1%5.1%−1.7%+40% / +140%
STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc.34.1 bn17.720.8%8.8%+3.6%+43% / +102%
ATIATI Inc.24.3 bn44.729.9%11.1%+5.2%+78% / +307%
CRSCarpenter Technology Corporation13.8 bn24.627.8%17.9%+8.6%−12% / +294%
CMCCommercial Metals Company6.8 bn10.614.8%7.0%+20.5%−2% / +37%
WORWorthington Enterprises, Inc3.0 bn18.516.3%11.5%+19.7%+12% / +38%
WSWorthington Steel, Inc.1.8 bn—-3.6%-0.7%+11.3%+6% / +31%
ROCKGibraltar Industries, Inc.940.7 m—-15.6%-10.4%+11.0%−37% / −53%
SXCSuncoke Energy, Inc.823.3 m—-8.5%-2.9%−5.1%+49% / +4%
NWPXNWPX Infrastructure, Inc.797.7 m15.213.0%8.9%+6.8%+36% / +212%
MTUSMetallus Inc.650.2 m30.83.4%1.9%+6.9%−7% / −22%
IIINInsteel Industries Inc.521.4 m17.87.9%4.0%+14.2%−12% / −21%
TWITitan International, Inc.303.7 m—-22.9%-5.7%−0.9%−42% / −64%
FRDFriedman Industries Inc256.1 m16.410.4%2.7%−13.9%+75% / +196%
LUDLuda Technology Group Limited86.4 m127.03.2%1.7%−25.3%−58% / unavailable
HUDIHuadi International Group Co., Ltd.7.3 m—-1.8%-2.2%−15.3%−62% / −84%
ASTLAlgoma Steel Group Inc.——-98.5%-47.2%−25.4%+17% / −41%
SIMGRUPO SIMEC, S.A.B. de C.V.——19.2%31.2%−18.2%−8% / −15%
GGBGerdau S.A.——2.5%2.0%+4.2%+22% / +18%
SIDNational Steel Co——-17.4%-5.9%−3.9%−51% / −76%
PKXPosco Holdings Inc.——2.1%1.5%−4.7%−8% / −48%

1- and 3-year price returns: for NWPX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
49.91
Total return -40% · Per year -40%
88.22
Total return 7% · Per year 7%
132.87
Total return 60% · Per year 60%
3 years
48.68
Total return -41% · Per year -16%
96.80
Total return 17% · Per year 5%
160.04
Total return 93% · Per year 25%
5 years
47.48
Total return -43% · Per year -11%
106.21
Total return 28% · Per year 5%
192.77
Total return 133% · Per year 18%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 24.20
  • Net margin± 16.94
  • Annual revenue growth± 13.87
  • Annual dilution± 1.42

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

NWPX Infrastructure makes steel pipe and concrete products for water and sewer infrastructure in North America, through two segments: Water Transmission Systems and Precast. It matters now because demand is supported by the need to renew aging water infrastructure, and in the second quarter of 2026 the company reported net sales of $159.5 million 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company presents itself as the largest maker of engineered water transmission systems in North America, with a broad plant network 1.
  • The balance sheet is solid, with an undrawn revolving facility and rising operating cash flow 3.

Weaknesses

  • The WTS segment relies largely on government spending on public water projects, which can be delayed 1.
  • The Precast segment is geographically concentrated in Texas and Utah, which raises regional risk 1.
  • The company has reported internal control weaknesses in prior years, raising questions about processes 1.

Opportunities

  • Federal and state water funding programmes could open new long-term projects 1.
  • Demand from data centres for stormwater management could extend the Precast market 1.
  • The Boughton’s Precast acquisition could broaden geographic reach in stormwater and sewer products 2.

Threats

  • Overcapacity in the WTS segment could press prices and margins in future bids 1.
  • Steel price volatility could hurt margins, especially on fixed-price contracts 1.
  • Environmental rules and tariffs could raise compliance and production costs 12.

Risks

  • Delays in public projectshigh

    Water projects can be postponed for budget or regulatory reasons, which could reduce plant utilisation 1.

  • Dependence on government fundinghigh

    Cuts to federal funding or delays in state money could affect WTS orders 12.

  • Overcapacity and competitionmedium

    Competitors could add capacity, and substitute materials could lower prices 1.

  • Steel price volatilitymedium

    Fixed-price contracts could expose the company to rising steel costs if prices do not pass through 1.

  • Environmental regulationlow

    Compliance costs and possible contamination liabilities could reduce profitability 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If water funding holds up, the high backlog and rising margins could support solid results over several years 23.
  • Record results in the second quarter of 2026 could suggest that execution and pricing are sustainable 3.
  • Expansion in Precast and acquisitions could diversify revenue sources 2.

What would break the thesis

  • If public project delays continue, plant utilisation could fall quickly, given that the WTS backlog declined from the prior quarter 3.
  • Precast could stay weak if residential construction does not recover, and its sales fell in the second quarter of 2026 3.
  • WTS margins could suffer if market overcapacity forces price competition 1.

What to watch

  • Development of WTS backlog and confirmed ordersQ3 2026
  • Recovery pace of the Precast segment after delays in Texas and UtahQ3 2026
  • Flow of IIJA funding into water projects2027
  • Effect of the Boughton acquisition on Precast salesnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

NWPX Infrastructure, Inc., formerly Northwest Pipe Company, is a major maker of water-related infrastructure products, headquartered in Vancouver, Washington 1. It mainly supplies large-diameter steel pipe for water transmission, along with precast concrete products for sewer and stormwater systems, generally sold through installation contractors who bid on public projects 1. After the February 2026 acquisition of Boughton’s Precast, the company operates 14 manufacturing facilities in North America 2.

Segments

Water Transmission Systems (WTS)

The WTS segment makes large-diameter, high-pressure welded steel pipe, used mainly for drinking water but also for hydroelectric, industrial and other uses 1. It accounted for 66.7% of net sales in fiscal 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 its sales rose 33.8% to $113.2 million 13.

Precast Infrastructure and Engineered Systems (Precast)

The Precast segment makes reinforced concrete pipe, manholes and stormwater and wastewater systems, with plants in Texas and Utah 1. It depends on residential and commercial construction, and in the second quarter of 2026 its sales fell slightly to $46.3 million 3.

Market context

The market is shaped by the age of US water infrastructure and by federal and state funding programmes such as the IIJA, which commits $55 billion to clean drinking water 1. Over the longer term demand depends on population growth and drought, while in the short term government budgets and project delays matter most 12.

The Precast market is more sensitive to the housing cycle, with privately-owned housing starts at 1.4 million in December 2025 1. The company also notes extra demand from data centre development for stormwater management solutions, which could support the segment 1.

Trends

  • Investment in water infrastructuremixed

    Water and sewer investment needs are large, and federal and state programmes could support demand over several years 1. Delays in federal funding could, however, push back orders.

  • Replacement of ageing pipestailwind

    Many pipes have passed their useful lives and await replacement, which could generate sustained long-term demand 1.

  • Residential construction cycleheadwind

    A slowdown in housing construction and high interest rates could reduce demand for Precast products, especially in residential markets 12.

  • Steel pricesmixed

    Steel price swings affect WTS margins, since contracts are often fixed-price, and the average purchased steel price ranged from $914 to $994 per ton over 2023-2025 1.

Competitive position

The WTS market is competitive, with overcapacity, and most projects are bid with vigorous price competition 1. Concrete pressure pipe, ductile iron, PVC and HDPE compete as substitute materials for the same projects 1.

In Precast, competition depends on region and local production capacity, and competitors expanding their plants could affect prices and margins 1.

  • Concrete pressure pipe manufacturers

    Offer a substitute material for water transmission pipelines, competing with steel pipe 1.

  • Ductile iron pipe producers

    Compete for water pipe projects, though limited in diameter 1.

  • PVC pipe manufacturers

    Provide an alternative material for certain water and sewer projects 1.

  • HDPE pipe manufacturers

    Compete with polymer materials in water transmission applications 1.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. · 29 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.