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olivLaw · US equity research

Spectral AI, Inc. MDAI

Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus · SIC 3841 · Vertical: Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus (SIC 3841)

1.38USD−9.80% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Spectral AI is an artificial intelligence company developing the DeepView System, a predictive diagnostic tool for wound healing with a focus on burns. Following FDA De Novo classification in May 2026, the company is preparing for its first commercial sales, while its current revenue comes almost entirely from U.S. government contracts and research revenue has declined, making the transition to commercialization decisive. Guidance for 2026 points to revenue of about 18.5 million USD.

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Spectral AI, Inc. (MDAI) stock was 1.38 USD (−9.80% on the day), with market capitalisation 44.4 m USD, beta 1.37, 52-week range 1.20–2.68 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 3.5 m USD (−30.4% YoY), net income of -4.2 m USD, diluted EPS -0.13 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
44.4 m USD
shares as of 11 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.34 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-24.32%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.37
Volatility (1y) 65%
52-week range
1.202.68

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
32.6
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
1.42 – 1.63
below the lower band · %B -0.18 · band width 14.0%
SMA 50 / 200
1.57 / 1.70
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.03 / -0.02
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−16.9%−5.9%−10.9 pp—
3 months−16.9%−4.6%−12.2 pp—
6 months−38.7%+0.2%−38.9 pp—
Year to date−2.8%+7.4%−10.2 pp—
1 year−29.9%+8.2%−38.2 pp+0.7%
3 years−53.4%+68.4%−121.8 pp−11.8%
5 years−85.8%+56.5%−142.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−48.5%
22 May 2026 → 05 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−93.5%
07 Sept 2023 → 24 Sept 2024
Compound annual growth (5y)
−32.3%
S&P 500 +9.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
3.5 m USD
−30.4% YoY
Net income
-4.2 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.13
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-118.5% / -122.7%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue8.2 m7.6 m6.7 m5.1 m3.8 m4.1 m4.0 m3.5 m
Cost of revenue4.5 m4.3 m3.5 m2.8 m2.2 m2.2 m2.0 m2.4 m
Gross profit3.7 m3.3 m3.2 m2.3 m1.6 m1.8 m2.0 m1.1 m
Research & development——3.6 m1.5 m6.2 m ≈—2.0 m1.7 m
Operating income-886.0 k-1.1 m-896.0 k-2.1 m-3.3 m-2.2 m-2.0 m-4.3 m
Interest expense8.0 k—20.0 k120.0 k300.0 k289.0 k258.0 k378.0 k
Pre-tax income-1.5 m-7.6 m3.0 m-8.0 m-3.6 m1.0 m-3.4 m-4.0 m
Income tax37.0 k-14.0 k71.0 k-19.0 k2.0 k-43.0 k-10.0 k170.0 k
Net income-1.5 m-7.6 m2.9 m-8.0 m-3.6 m1.1 m-3.4 m-4.2 m
Diluted EPS-0.08-0.39 ≈0.11-0.31-0.130.03 ≈-0.11-0.13
Operating cash flow-1.6 m ≈469.0 k-1.5 m-3.4 m ≈-2.5 m ≈-2.6 m-3.7 m-4.1 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20212022202320242025
Revenueunavailable25.4 m18.1 m29.6 m19.7 m
Revenue YoYunavailableunavailable−28.8%+63.8%−33.6%
Net income-2.1 m-2.9 m-20.9 m-15.2 m-7.6 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPSunavailable-0.22-1.48-0.85-0.29
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %unavailable-11.5%-115.5%-51.2%-38.5%
Free cash flowunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
15.4 m USD
Financial debt
5.5 m USD
Net debt
-9.9 m USD
Equity
-5.7 m USD
Total assets
21.4 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
0.94x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
-45.2%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
18.1 m
2024
29.6 m
2025
19.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
10.2 m
2024
16.3 m
2025
10.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
7.9 m
2024
13.3 m
2025
8.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Research & development
2023
15.1 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Mar 2024verified

Operating income
2023
-13.0 m
2024
-6.6 m
2025
-8.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
—
2024
-14.0 k
2025
886.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-20.8 m
2024
-15.0 m
2025
-7.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
11.0 k
2024
114.0 k
2025
11.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-20.9 m
2024
-15.2 m
2025
-7.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-1.48
2024
-0.85
2025
-0.29

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
14.1 m
2024
17.9 m
2025
26.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
4.8 m
2024
5.2 m
2025
15.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
2.3 m
2024
2.5 m
2025
1.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
230.0 k
2024
425.0 k
2025
838.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
9.9 m
2024
10.1 m
2025
19.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
12.0 k
2024
2.0 k
2025
258.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
10.7 m
2024
12.1 m
2025
21.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
2.7 m
2024
4.0 m
2025
3.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
2.8 m
2025
5.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
12.4 m
2024
17.6 m
2025
20.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
12.4 m
2024
19.3 m
2025
27.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
-2.1 m †
2024
-7.3 m †
2025
-5.7 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-13.2 m
2024
-9.2 m
2025
-9.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Investing cash flow
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2023verified

Financing cash flow
2023
3.8 m
2024
9.6 m
2025
20.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2023verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-33.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-8.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
42.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
-77.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-65.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
ROA
-56.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
unavailable
insufficient data
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-2.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Interest coverage
-9.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-12.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
31 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
27 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
77 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
-19 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
44.4 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
42.3 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-24.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
2.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
2.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 4 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

1.38 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 44.4 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
44.4 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Net margin
-65.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-33.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing

Coverage and freshness

26/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 11 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 11 Aug 2026
verified 608derived 47

Score by group

25% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus (SIC 3841)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-65.5%25 (vs peers)25%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-8.2%0 (on a fixed band)33%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-9.7x0 (on a fixed band)25%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.9x8 (on a fixed band)17%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet3/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial25/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

SPECTRAL AI, INC. (MDAI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 19.6 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -33.6%; net margin -65.5%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: -65.5%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -8.2%
  • Interest coverage: -9.7x
  • Current ratio: 0.9x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus (SIC 3841) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 29.2x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 16.8x
P/S
2.9x
vertical median 2.7x
above median (+7.8%)
P/B
—
vertical median 2.6x
ROE
—
vertical median 0.1%
Net margin
-65.5%
vertical median -0.5%
below median
EBIT margin
-77.2%
vertical median 3.1%
below median (−2,557.8%)
Revenue YoY
-33.6%
vertical median 11.5%
below median (−393.1%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 1.2x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.1%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
SYKStryker Corp127.6 bn35.716.0%13.8%+11.2%−10% / +13%
MMM3m Company97.0 bn28.080.8%14.0%+1.5%+9% / +127%
BSXBoston Scientific Corporation64.7 bn18.914.3%16.6%+19.9%−56% / −20%
BDXBecton, Dickinson And Company58.2 bn64.53.8%4.0%+8.2%+40% / +15%
RMDResMed Inc.33.7 bn21.826.4%27.8%+9.9%−6% / +52%
DXCMDexcom, Inc.31.5 bn33.337.7%19.4%+15.6%+33% / −27%
WSTWest Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.27.3 bn44.121.2%18.8%+6.3%+42% / +12%
SOLVSolventum Corporation14.8 bn98.23.2%1.9%+0.9%+2% / unavailable
PENPenumbra, Inc12.7 bn80.910.7%10.1%+17.5%+10% / +45%
GMEDGlobus Medical, Inc.10.9 bn20.012.1%17.8%+16.7%−11% / +81%
TFXTeleflex Incorporated6.0 bn18.58.3%13.5%+17.2%+33% / −33%
MMSIMerit Medical Systems Inc5.4 bn33.79.8%9.9%+11.8%+3% / +25%
ATRCAtriCure, Inc.3.1 bn206.62.9%2.5%+14.9%+70% / +73%
LMATLemaitre Vascular, Inc.1.9 bn30.415.6%23.5%+13.5%+1% / +58%
NVCRNovoCure Limited1.6 bn—-35.2%-16.8%+8.3%+6% / +10%
KIDSOrthoPediatrics Corp841.3 m—-9.8%-12.8%+15.4%+74% / +5%
TCMDTactile Systems Technology, Inc.590.7 m25.711.0%6.7%+12.5%+3% / +98%
CERSCerus Corp430.2 m—-10.7%-2.9%+16.1%+21% / +32%
BWAYBrainsway Ltd.415.5 m212.25.6%7.1%+29.0%+21% / +238%
TMCITreace Medical Concepts, Inc.271.8 m—-72.0%-29.0%+1.6%+40% / −52%
ANIKAnika Therapeutics, Inc.258.7 m—-2.7%-3.1%−5.9%+96% / −12%
UTMDUtah Medical Products, Inc.226.2 m21.78.8%29.0%−5.8%+26% / −16%
LUCDLucid Diagnostics Inc.79.3 m—-556.3%-959.8%+8.3%−63% / −74%
ICCMIceCure Medical Ltd.50.4 m2.9-188.8%-445.6%+2.7%−97% / −98%
MDAISpectral Ai, Inc.44.4 m——-65.5%−33.6%−30% / −53%

1- and 3-year price returns: for MDAI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Spectral AI is an artificial intelligence company developing the DeepView System, a predictive diagnostic tool for wound healing with a focus on burns. Following FDA De Novo classification in May 2026, the company is preparing for its first commercial sales, while its current revenue comes almost entirely from U.S. government contracts and research revenue has declined, making the transition to commercialization decisive. Guidance for 2026 points to revenue of about 18.5 million USD 3.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • Patented technology and a proprietary clinical database offer a technical advantage that is hard to replicate 1.
    • Extensive government funding provides non-dilutive capital and institutional validation 12.

    Weaknesses

    • The company has no product revenue yet and depends almost entirely on government contracts 12.
    • Gross margin has fallen considerably, and development costs are not fully covered by contracts 3.
    • Liquidity is limited, and the company relies on credit and further financing 3.

    Opportunities

    • First sales in the U.S. and the UK could extend the customer base to burn centers and hospitals 13.
    • Expanding the indication to other body areas and outcome studies could support clinical adoption 3.
    • The SaaS model could generate recurring revenue after devices are installed 1.

    Threats

    • Delays in first commercial sales or launch could extend dependence on funding 3.
    • Dependence on a concentrated set of suppliers and contract manufacturers could affect deliveries 2.
    • Clinical adoption could be slow if physicians do not accept the predictive tool 1.

    Risks

    • Dependence on government fundinghigh

      Revenue comes almost entirely from contracts with government agencies, and a decline in them could seriously affect the financial position 2.

    • Limited liquidityhigh

      Cash on hand is low, and the company depends on credit and additional financing to sustain operations 3.

    • Delay in commercial salesmedium

      First sales are targeted for year-end 2026, and delays could push back expected revenue 3.

    • Pressure on marginsmedium

      Cost-share provisions and launch pricing could reduce gross margins during the launch period 23.

    • Supply chainlow

      Dependence on contract manufacturers and a concentration of suppliers could lead to delays or cost increases 2.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • The FDA authorization of May 2026 could turn the company from a research-focused one into one with commercial sales, if first deliveries follow the schedule 3.
    • Its proprietary clinical database and the absence of comparable products could support a durable market position 1.
    • BARDA funding provides a base for the next development and procurement phases 23.

    What would break the thesis

    • The company has no product revenue yet, and falling contract revenue could deepen losses 23.
    • Cash on hand is low, and credit financing could become a pressure if sales are delayed 3.
    • Clinical adoption of a new tool can be slow, particularly without an obvious direct competitor creating demand 1.

    What to watch

    • First commercial sales of the DeepView System in the U.S.year-end 2026
    • Achievement of the revenue guidance of about 18.5 million USD2026
    • Trend in gross margin and BARDA cost-share provisionsQ3 2026
    • Results of the triage and treatment outcome studyQ4 2026

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Spectral AI, Inc. is an artificial intelligence company focused on predictive medical diagnostics. Its DeepView System combines a multispectral imaging component that captures tissue invisible to the naked eye with the AI-Burn software, which gives a binary prediction of a wound's capacity to heal 1. The company operates in one segment and concentrates its efforts on research and development, mainly for the burn indication 12.

    The company has not yet generated product revenue. Its revenue comes almost exclusively from government contracts, especially from BARDA, part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and from other Department of Defense funding 12. The BARDA PBS contract, worth up to 150.0 million USD, supported clinical validation and the De Novo submission to the FDA 2.

    The anticipated business model combines a SaaS component, with a software licensing fee covering maintenance, image hosting and access to algorithm updates, with a directly sold imaging device. Pricing is expected to be set per country and site of service 12.

    Segments

    DeepView System for burns

    The company's single segment includes the DeepView System with the burn indication, authorized by the FDA in May 2026 and by UKCA in the United Kingdom 23. The company completed enrollment of 164 patients for its validation study, 49 of them pediatric 2.

    Development and auxiliary programs

    Programs in development include DeepView SnapShot M, a portable device for military and emergency use, and a 3D wound measurement technology partly funded by BARDA 1. MTEC funding for the portable device was extended through December 31, 2026 2.

    Market context

    The company estimates that over 57,000 clinical sites in the United States could host the technology, and over 20,000 across the UK and EU 1. The size of the market depends on whether the first commercial sales, scheduled for year-end 2026, are achieved 3.

    Target customers are burn centers, trauma centers and emergency departments, and the claimed advantage is day-one diagnosis, which could shorten hospital stays 1. The company has also cited estimated cost savings per hospital stay 1.

    Trends

    • FDA authorization and the move to commercializationtailwind

      The De Novo authorization of May 2026 opens the path to first sales in the U.S., which could move the company from one dependent on funding toward one with commercial revenue 3.

    • Declining government contract revenueheadwind

      As work under the BARDA PBS contract winds down, research and development revenue falls, and the company bears part of its development costs 3.

    • Pressure on marginsheadwind

      Gross margin fell in the second quarter of 2026 because of cost-share provisions, and launch pricing could compress margins further 23.

    • Institutional interest and financingmixed

      The Avenue Capital credit facility and government funding provide non-dilutive capital, but reliance on these sources remains an important factor 3.

    Competitive position

    The company says there are no comparable digital wound healing predictive products that give clinicians an objective, immediate AI-based assessment of healing potential 1. Indirect competition comes from standard clinical methods that rely on subjective assessment and weeks of observation 1.

    According to the company, its principal barrier to entry is its clinically validated database of more than 340 billion pixels of image data 1.

    • Standard clinical assessment of burns

      Subjective clinical assessment followed by observation over several weeks, described by the company as the main alternative 1.

    • Advanced wound care products and surgical interventions

      Options clinicians choose after the initial assessment, without an objective predictive tool 1.

    • Other medical imaging instrument makers

      The sources do not name competitors; the company only states that no comparable products are cited.

    • Portable military diagnostic tools

      Possible competition for the portable variant aimed at military and emergency settings 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    • Current report15 Sept 2026
      Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report12 Aug 2026
      Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Quarterly report11 Aug 2026
    • Current report08 Jul 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report01 Jun 2026
      Shareholder vote · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report26 May 2026
      Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Quarterly report13 May 2026
    • Current report22 Apr 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Proxy statement16 Apr 2026
    • Current report08 Apr 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Spectral AI, Inc. · 25 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Spectral AI, Inc. · 11 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Spectral AI, Inc. · 12 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.