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olivLaw · US equity research

Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. TCMD

Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus · SIC 3841 · Vertical: Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus (SIC 3841)

27.18USD+9.69% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Tactile Medical develops and sells medical devices for at-home treatment of lymphedema, chronic venous insufficiency and chronic respiratory conditions. The company reported revenue of 329.5 million USD for fiscal 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 revenue grew 9%.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (TCMD) stock was 27.18 USD (+9.69% on the day), with market capitalisation 608.9 m USD, P/E 26.5 on diluted EPS of 1.03 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.77, 52-week range 21.71–33.05 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 91.9 m USD (+7.1% YoY), net income of 7.2 m USD (−12.8% YoY), diluted EPS 0.31 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
608.9 m USD
shares as of 29 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
26.5
Diluted EPS TTM 1.03 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
3.78%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.77
Volatility (1y) 60%
52-week range
21.7133.05

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
72.4
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
21.16 – 25.57
above the upper band · %B 1.36 · band width 18.9%
SMA 50 / 200
22.82 / 25.79
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.56 / 0.25
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+21.0%−2.0%+23.0 pp—
3 months−9.3%−2.2%−7.2 pp—
6 months+7.4%+4.3%+3.2 pp—
Year to date−6.3%+10.6%−16.8 pp—
1 year+22.5%+10.5%+12.1 pp−43.3%
3 years+110.9%+73.7%+37.2 pp−7.7%
5 years−28.4%+61.7%−90.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−34.3%
18 Feb 2026 → 01 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−82.8%
08 Nov 2021 → 13 Jun 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
−6.5%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
91.9 m USD
+7.1% YoY
Net income
7.2 m USD
−12.8% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.31
−13.9% YoY
net / operating
7.8% / 10.4%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue85.6 m61.3 m78.9 m85.8 m103.6 m75.3 m85.7 m91.9 m
Cost of revenue21.2 m15.9 m20.1 m20.8 m22.6 m17.7 m20.3 m21.4 m
Gross profit64.4 m45.3 m58.8 m65.0 m81.0 m57.6 m65.3 m70.5 m
Research & development2.0 m1.7 m2.0 m2.2 m2.5 m2.8 m2.5 m2.5 m
Operating income12.5 m-4.5 m4.1 m11.0 m18.8 m-1.5 m6.8 m9.6 m
Depreciation & amortisation1.7 m1.7 m1.7 m ≈1.6 m ≈1.6 m1.6 m1.8 m ≈1.8 m ≈
Interest expense471.0 k424.0 k410.0 k193.0 k11.0 k28.0 k19.0 k20.0 k
Pre-tax income13.0 m-4.1 m4.5 m11.4 m19.4 m-896.0 k7.4 m10.1 m
Income tax3.3 m-1.1 m1.3 m3.2 m8.8 m867.0 k-417.0 k3.0 m
Net income9.7 m-3.0 m3.2 m8.2 m10.6 m-1.8 m7.8 m7.2 m
Diluted EPS0.40 ≈-0.130.140.360.46 ≈-0.080.340.31
Operating cash flow16.3 m417.0 k14.8 m ≈10.3 m ≈17.3 m-339.0 k3.3 m ≈12.0 m ≈
Capex460.0 k379.0 k369.0 k ≈1.1 m ≈510.0 k821.0 k1.3 m ≈553.0 k ≈
Share repurchases—10.0 m16.5 m ≈0 ≈-1.0 k1.1 m5.3 m ≈6.2 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 34 percentile of its own 29-quarter history (min 8.7, median 81.5, max 868.3; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue143.8 m189.5 m187.1 m208.1 m246.8 m274.4 m293.0 m329.5 m
Revenue YoY+31.5%+31.8%−1.2%+11.2%+18.6%+11.2%+6.8%+12.5%
Net income6.6 m11.0 m-620.0 k-11.8 m-17.9 m28.5 m17.0 m19.1 m
Net income YoY+13.1%+65.7%−105.7%unavailableunavailableunavailable−40.5%+12.5%
Diluted EPS0.340.56-0.03-0.60-0.891.230.700.82
Diluted EPS YoY+9.7%+64.7%−105.4%unavailableunavailableunavailable−43.1%+17.1%
net %4.6%5.8%-0.3%-5.7%-7.2%10.4%5.8%5.8%
Free cash flow4.8 m-2.9 m735.0 k528.0 k3.4 m33.5 m38.3 m40.4 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
83.4 m USD
Financial debt
0 USD
Net debt
-83.4 m USD
Equity
218.9 m USD
Total assets
273.9 m USD
Debt / equity
0.00x
Current ratio
4.03x
ROE
8.8%
ROA
6.7%
FCF margin
12.3%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
274.4 m
2024
293.0 m
2025
329.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
79.3 m
2024
76.3 m
2025
79.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
195.1 m
2024
216.7 m
2025
250.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
7.8 m
2024
8.8 m
2025
8.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
18.0 m
2024
22.2 m
2025
29.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
6.5 m
2024
6.8 m
2025
6.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
24.6 m ≈
2024
29.0 m ≈
2025
35.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
4.1 m
2024
2.1 m
2025
1.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
15.8 m
2024
23.5 m
2025
31.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
-12.7 m
2024
6.5 m
2025
12.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
28.5 m
2024
17.0 m
2025
19.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
1.23
2024
0.70
2025
0.82

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
23.2 m
2024
24.1 m
2025
23.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
61.0 m
2024
94.4 m
2025
83.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
43.2 m
2024
44.9 m
2025
43.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
22.5 m
2024
18.7 m
2025
14.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
145.3 m
2024
177.6 m
2025
165.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
6.2 m
2024
5.6 m
2025
5.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
31.1 m
2024
31.1 m
2025
31.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
46.7 m
2024
42.8 m
2025
39.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
281.4 m
2024
297.9 m
2025
273.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
6.7 m
2024
5.6 m
2025
5.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
16.8 m
2024
—
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
41.1 m
2024
40.7 m
2025
41.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
87.8 m
2024
81.3 m
2025
55.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
193.6 m †
2024
216.6 m †
2025
218.9 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
35.9 m
2024
40.7 m
2025
42.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
2.3 m
2024
2.4 m
2025
2.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
33.5 m ≈
2024
38.3 m ≈
2025
40.4 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-2.5 m
2024
-2.5 m
2025
-2.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
5.7 m
2024
-4.8 m
2025
-51.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
—
2024
3.5 m
2025
26.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
12.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
10.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
12.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
32.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
12.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
17.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
5.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
77.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
11.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
9.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
6.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
8.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
11.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
8.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
15.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
13.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-75.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-1.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
431.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
3.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
3.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
32.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
3.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
29.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
121.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
79.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
44 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
71 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
44 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
70 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
608.9 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
533.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
25.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
26.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
3.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
1.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
15.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
1.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
21.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
4.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
2.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 74 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

27.18 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 608.9 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
608.9 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
26.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
11.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
6.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
12.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 29 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 02 Nov 2026
verified 1704derived 126

Score by group

  • Balance sheet95
  • Growth84
  • Quality84
  • Returns29
  • Valuation59

Estimated value range

Low
22.63
USD per share
Mid
26.55
USD per share
High
32.67
USD per share
Price: 27.18 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -2.3% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -2.4% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4.25 – 33.65 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)22.63 – 32.67 (Mid 26.55)
    WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 29.1 m USD · terminal value share of EV 73%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 11.4%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA24.23 – 32.49 (Mid 29.64)
    8 companies used · median multiple 14.5x · quartiles 11.5x – 16.1x
    BAX, BDX, BSX, EMBC, INFU, MMM, RMD, SYK
  • Peers: P/E4.25 – 33.65 (Mid 24.17)
    12 companies used · median multiple 23.5x · quartiles 4.1x – 32.8x
    BDX, BSX, DRIO, DXCM, EMBC, ICCM, INFU, MMM, PLSM, RMD, SYK, WST
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus (SIC 3841)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 74/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality15.3%78 (vs peers)12%
Net margin · Quality6.7%80 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality121.9%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth10.1%84 (on a fixed band)10%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-1.9x90 (vs peers)12%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet431.5x100 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet3.5x100 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation26.5x46 (vs peers)12%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation13.2x70 (vs peers)12%
FCF yield · Valuation4.8%60 (on a fixed band)10%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns2.1%29 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet95/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial84/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality84/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial29/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation59/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (TCMD). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 329.5 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 12.5%; net margin 6.7%; ROE 11.0%; net debt/EBITDA -1.9x.

The estimated value range is 22.63–32.67 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 26.55 USD, the price of 27.18 USD leaves a potential of -2.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -2.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 74/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 15.3%
  • Net margin: 6.7%
  • FCF conversion: 121.9%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 10.1%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: -1.9x
  • Interest coverage: 431.5x
  • Current ratio: 3.5x
  • EV/EBITDA: 13.2x

What contradicts it

  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 2.1%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus (SIC 3841) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
26.5x
vertical median 26.4x
at median
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
vertical median 15.5x
below median (−15.0%)
P/S
1.7x
vertical median 2.5x
below median (−31.5%)
P/B
2.7x
vertical median 2.6x
at median
ROE
11.0%
vertical median -17.6%
above median
Net margin
6.7%
vertical median -10.2%
above median
EBIT margin
9.4%
vertical median -9.5%
above median
Revenue YoY
12.5%
vertical median 12.5%
at median
Net debt/EBITDA
-1.9x
vertical median 1.2x
below median (−255.3%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 0.6%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
SYKStryker Corp118.2 bn33.116.0%13.8%+11.2%−16% / +5%
MMM3m Company91.5 bn26.480.8%14.0%+1.5%+3% / +114%
BSXBoston Scientific Corporation63.1 bn18.414.3%16.6%+19.9%−57% / −22%
BDXBecton, Dickinson And Company54.0 bn59.83.8%4.0%+8.2%+30% / +7%
RMDResMed Inc.31.9 bn20.726.4%27.8%+9.9%−11% / +44%
DXCMDexcom, Inc.30.9 bn32.737.7%19.4%+15.6%+31% / −28%
WSTWest Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.28.4 bn45.721.2%18.8%+6.3%+47% / +16%
BAXBaxter International Inc.13.7 bn—-10.5%-6.2%+5.7%+41% / −27%
KMTSKestra Medical Technologies, Ltd.1.8 bn—-73.7%-140.4%+59.0%+13% / unavailable
TNDMTandem Diabetes Care, Inc.1.3 bn—-48.0%-6.1%+7.9%−9% / −6%
AORTArtivion, Inc.1.3 bn—-0.7%-0.7%+13.6%−43% / +49%
SIBNSi-Bone, Inc.1.1 bn—-7.7%-6.2%+20.2%+28% / +32%
BBNXBeta Bionics, Inc.921.5 m—-23.9%-65.3%+53.9%−46% / unavailable
KIDSOrthoPediatrics Corp875.0 m—-9.8%-12.8%+15.4%+81% / +9%
TCMDTactile Systems Technology, Inc.608.9 m26.511.0%6.7%+12.5%+23% / +111%
DCTHDelcath Systems, Inc.514.2 m1,195.50.5%0.6%+129.1%+53% / +439%
CERSCerus Corp487.7 m—-10.7%-2.9%+16.1%+37% / +50%
MDXGMimedx Group, Inc.467.0 m—-8.5%-6.3%+20.0%−53% / −59%
EMBCEmbecta Corp.369.4 m4.4—8.6%−3.8%−49% / −64%
INFUInfusystem Holdings, Inc261.9 m32.315.0%6.0%+6.4%+42% / +31%
TLSITriSalus Life Sciences, Inc.239.5 m——-62.6%+53.4%−43% / −3%
STIMNeuronetics, Inc.206.1 m—-135.3%-19.6%+99.2%+82% / +49%
GUTSFractyl Health, Inc.154.8 m———−100.0%−95% / unavailable
MBOTMicrobot Medical Inc.76.6 m—-32.9%—unavailable−53% / −10%
ICCMIceCure Medical Ltd.57.8 m3.3-188.8%-445.6%+2.7%−96% / −98%

1- and 3-year price returns: for TCMD from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
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Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
17.57
Total return -35% · Per year -35%
30.98
Total return 14% · Per year 14%
46.56
Total return 71% · Per year 71%
3 years
19.03
Total return -30% · Per year -11%
37.57
Total return 38% · Per year 11%
61.70
Total return 127% · Per year 31%
5 years
20.61
Total return -24% · Per year -5%
45.55
Total return 68% · Per year 11%
81.76
Total return 201% · Per year 25%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 9.39
  • Net margin± 6.57
  • Annual revenue growth± 5.12
  • Annual dilution± 0.55

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 10 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q/A (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (02 Nov 2026).

In brief

Tactile Medical develops and sells medical devices for at-home treatment of lymphedema, chronic venous insufficiency and chronic respiratory conditions. The company reported revenue of 329.5 million USD for fiscal 2025 1, and in the second quarter of 2026 revenue grew 9% 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • At-home care platform with broad coverage and established reimbursement relationships 1.
  • Rising gross margin and capacity to fund investments from operating cash flow 3.
  • Randomized clinical evidence for head and neck lymphedema 3.

Weaknesses

  • Revenue concentrated in lymphedema products 1.
  • Dependence on third-party suppliers and on the DME channel for AffloVest 1.
  • Quarterly revenue that fluctuates, with seasonal effects 1.

Opportunities

  • Expansion of AffloVest Gen 6 and MyoSleeve distribution through federal channels 2.
  • Integrating LymphaTech could extend the portfolio across the care pathway 3.
  • Rising awareness of bronchiectasis could support demand for HFCWO therapy 1.

Threats

  • Changes in Medicare coverage could reduce patient access 1.
  • Cybersecurity and data breach risks could disrupt operations 1.
  • Tariff and component cost pressures could weigh on margins 3.

Risks

  • Medicare coveragehigh

    Changes to national or local coverage decisions could reduce revenue from compression products 1.

  • Price pressuremedium

    Private payers could seek price reductions, which could reduce gross margin 1.

  • DME providersmedium

    If DME distributors reduce orders, AffloVest volumes could decline 1.

  • Cybersecuritymedium

    An attack on information systems could disrupt operations and patient data 1.

  • Supply chainmedium

    Disruption at a single-source supplier could limit production and shipments 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Revenue and gross margin growth in the first half of 2026 could indicate solid operational execution 3.
  • If the LymphaTech integration and MyoSleeve distribution add channels, the portfolio could grow faster 23.
  • Randomized clinical evidence could support adoption by clinicians and payers 3.

What would break the thesis

  • If AffloVest inventory adjustments persist, respiratory revenue could stay below expectations 3.
  • Reimbursement pressure could limit long-term growth and margins 1.
  • Concentration on a few products could amplify the impact of policy changes 1.

What to watch

  • Ritmul comenzilor AffloVest la furnizorii DMEQ3 2026
  • AffloVest order pace at DME providersQ3 2026
  • Effect of Medicare prior authorization on denials2026
  • LymphaTech integration and related revenue2026
  • Fiscal 2026 revenue guidancenext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 10 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q/A (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (02 Nov 2026).

The business

Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. is a medical technology company that develops and provides devices for underserved chronic diseases with a focus on home care 1. Its direct-to-patient and -provider model in lymphedema includes referrals from clinicians, claims management and patient training 1. For respiratory therapy, it sells AffloVest through accredited DME providers 1.

The company launched its AffloVest Gen 6 in June 2026 after FDA clearance in April 2026 2. The LymphaTech acquisition, completed in February 2026, adds a digital 3D body measurement platform for lymphedema 2. The ElastiMed agreement gives exclusive VA and DoD distribution rights for MyoSleeve 2.

The company operates as one segment for financial reporting and relies on third-party suppliers for components and controller assembly 12. The Kylee app lets patients track treatments and symptoms 1.

Segments

Lymphedema and venous insufficiency

Flexitouch Plus, Entre Plus and Nimbl products accounted for 84% of revenue in fiscal 2025 1. Nimbl has replaced most Entre orders 1.

AffloVest airway clearance

AffloVest generated 16% of revenue in fiscal 2025 1. Sales run through DME providers, and one large provider slowed placements due to eligibility changes 1.

Market context

The company estimates that more than 16 million people in the United States live with lymphedema due to chronic venous insufficiency 1. Bronchiectasis affects over 500,000 US adults and could be growing at a high single-digit annual rate 1.

The market is shaped by Medicare coverage decisions and private payer reimbursement, which can change access conditions 1. The company operates mainly in the United States 1.

Trends

  • New Medicare prior authorizationheadwind

    From April 2026 Medicare requires prior authorization for pneumatic compression devices, which could raise claim denials and delays 1.

  • Oncology expansiontailwind

    The randomized trial of Flexitouch Plus in head and neck cancer-related lymphedema, with six-month results published in 2026, could support clinical adoption 3.

  • Payer price pressureheadwind

    The company expects pricing pressure from private insurers, which could slow revenue growth 1.

  • DME inventory levelsmixed

    The AffloVest launch has created temporary inventory adjustments at some DME providers, which could affect near-term orders 3.

Competitive position

The company competes with other pneumatic compression and respiratory therapy suppliers, although the sources do not name specific competitors. Its advantage rests on the at-home care platform and investments in reimbursement and clinical support 1.

If new manufacturers enter the market, clinical differentiation and reimbursement coverage could become the main decision criteria 1.

  • Pneumatic compression device suppliers

    Sources do not name specific competitors; competition is described in general terms 1.

  • Respiratory DME providers

    DME distributors are the main channel for AffloVest and can influence volumes 1.

  • Bronchiectasis therapy makers

    Sources mention a drug approved in 2025 as complementary therapy, not a direct competitor 1.

  • Other home medical device makers

    Not identified in the analysed sources.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. · 17 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. · 10 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. · 10 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.