olivLaw · US equity research
Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. TNDM
Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus · SIC 3841 · Vertical: Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus (SIC 3841)
Tandem Diabetes Care is a global insulin delivery company that makes automated insulin pumps and digital diabetes solutions, serving nearly 500,000 people in more than 25 countries. The company is now expanding its pay-as-you-go reimbursement model in the U.S., and its second quarter 2026 sales reached $254.6 million with a 57% gross margin.
At the close of 02 Nov 2026, Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (TNDM) stock was 18.67 USD (−2.30% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.3 bn USD, beta 1.16, 52-week range 12.82–28.26 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 254.6 m USD (+5.8% YoY), net income of -21.2 m USD, diluted EPS -0.31 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 58.0
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 14.50 – 19.99
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.76 · band width 31.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 17.95 / 18.92
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.51 / 0.15
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +13.2% | −2.3% | +15.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −7.2% | −0.8% | −6.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −6.0% | +4.7% | −10.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −15.1% | +10.2% | −25.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +33.4% | +10.3% | +23.1 pp | −17.3% |
| 3 years | +18.5% | +73.0% | −54.5 pp | −12.8% |
| 5 years | −86.8% | +61.8% | −148.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 244.0 m | 282.6 m | 234.4 m | 240.7 m | 249.3 m | 290.4 m | 247.2 m | 254.6 m |
| Cost of revenue | 119.3 m | 125.2 m | 116.0 m | 114.8 m | 115.0 m | 122.9 m | 110.4 m | 109.8 m |
| Gross profit | 124.7 m | 157.5 m | 118.4 m | 125.9 m | 134.3 m | 167.5 m | 136.8 m | 144.8 m |
| SG&A | 99.6 m | 105.8 m | 113.9 m | 109.6 m | 108.4 m | 113.1 m | 108.2 m | 111.6 m |
| Operating income | -26.1 m | -581.0 k | -120.9 m | -51.8 m | -22.9 m | 8.3 m | -17.4 m | -13.8 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 4.2 m ≈ | 4.2 m | 4.3 m | 4.4 m ≈ | 4.5 m ≈ | 4.5 m | 4.5 m | 4.5 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 1.9 m | 1.9 m | 1.9 m | 1.9 m | 2.1 m | 2.1 m | 2.2 m | 2.5 m |
| Pre-tax income | -22.6 m | 16.0 k | -122.1 m | -57.7 m | -25.1 m | 4.7 m | -19.9 m | -20.7 m |
| Income tax | 637.0 k | -739.0 k | 8.5 m | -5.3 m | -4.0 m | 5.3 m | 516.0 k | 510.0 k |
| Net income | -23.3 m | 755.0 k | -130.6 m | -52.4 m | -21.2 m | -589.0 k | -20.4 m | -21.2 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.35 | 0.01 | -1.97 | -0.78 | -0.31 | -0.01 | -0.30 | -0.31 |
| Operating cash flow | 26.8 m ≈ | 10.7 m | -18.3 m | -9.5 m ≈ | 8.3 m ≈ | 9.8 m | 11.1 m | -34.6 m ≈ |
| Capex | 5.2 m ≈ | 3.1 m | 3.0 m | 6.2 m ≈ | 4.1 m ≈ | 6.7 m | 6.3 m | 4.1 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 ≈ | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 183.9 m | 362.3 m | 498.8 m | 702.8 m | 801.2 m | 747.7 m | 940.2 m | 1.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +70.9% | +97.0% | +37.7% | +40.9% | +14.0% | −6.7% | +25.7% | +7.9% |
| Net income | -122.6 m | -24.8 m | -34.4 m | 15.6 m | -94.6 m | -222.6 m | -96.0 m | -204.7 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −707.7% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | -0.42 | -0.56 | 0.24 | -1.47 | -3.43 | -1.47 | -3.04 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −712.5% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -66.7% | -6.8% | -6.9% | 2.2% | -11.8% | -29.8% | -10.2% | -20.2% |
| Free cash flow | -11.3 m | 22.4 m | -2.7 m | 97.2 m | 16.4 m | -58.6 m | 5.0 m | -29.7 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 90.6 m USD
- Financial debt
- 310.0 m USD
- Net debt
- 219.4 m USD
- Equity
- 155.2 m USD
- Total assets
- 881.1 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 2.00x
- Current ratio
- 2.55x
- ROE
- -97.9%
- ROA
- -22.1%
- FCF margin
- -2.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 498.8 m | 702.8 m | 801.2 m | 747.7 m | 940.2 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 238.3 m | 326.6 m | 388.2 m | 380.0 m | 450.6 m | 468.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 260.5 m | 376.2 m | 413.0 m | 367.7 m | 489.6 m | 546.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 63.6 m | 92.1 m | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Feb 2022verified |
| SG&A | 204.9 m | 261.5 m | 335.7 m | 352.5 m | 389.8 m | 445.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -8.0 m | 22.7 m | -92.8 m | -233.2 m | -99.1 m | -187.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 10.5 m | 13.8 m | 14.3 m | 15.7 m | 16.6 m | 17.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 2.5 m ≈ | 36.5 m ≈ | -78.5 m ≈ | -217.5 m ≈ | -82.5 m ≈ | -169.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | — | 6.2 m | 9.9 m | 7.4 m | 7.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -36.3 m | 15.9 m | -92.9 m | -220.3 m | -91.9 m | -200.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -1.9 m | 335.0 k | 1.7 m | 2.4 m | 4.2 m | 4.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -34.4 m | 15.6 m | -94.6 m | -222.6 m | -96.0 m | -204.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.56 | 0.24 | -1.47 | -3.43 | -1.47 | -3.04 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 61.0 m | 64.3 m | 64.1 m | 65.0 m | 65.5 m | 67.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 94.6 m | 71.2 m | 172.5 m | 58.9 m | 69.2 m | 90.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 82.2 m | 110.7 m | 114.7 m | 105.6 m | 114.6 m | 165.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 63.7 m | 68.6 m | 111.1 m | 157.9 m | 149.6 m | 128.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 637.2 m | 811.5 m | 850.0 m | 748.0 m | 724.5 m | 618.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 50.0 m | 50.4 m | 68.6 m | 76.5 m | 78.2 m | 83.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 6.6 m | 4.6 m | 2.8 m | 925.0 k | 11.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 716.4 m | 905.1 m | 1.1 bn | 952.7 m | 967.7 m | 881.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 17.8 m | 28.0 m | 55.7 m | 49.6 m | 44.7 m | 47.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | — | — | 0 | 40.7 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | — | — | — | 285.0 m | 308.3 m | 310.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 103.9 m | 131.9 m | 165.3 m | 195.3 m | 247.0 m | 242.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 350.1 m | 472.0 m | 612.8 m | 639.0 m | 704.6 m | 725.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 366.3 m † | 433.1 m † | 439.9 m † | 313.6 m † | 263.1 m † | 155.2 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 24.7 m | 111.4 m | 50.5 m | -31.8 m | 24.2 m | -9.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 27.4 m | 14.2 m | 34.1 m | 26.8 m | 19.2 m | 19.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -2.7 m ≈ | 97.2 m ≈ | 16.4 m ≈ | -58.6 m ≈ | 5.0 m ≈ | -29.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -296.1 m | -186.9 m | 33.2 m | -85.7 m | -23.5 m | 72.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 314.4 m | 51.9 m | 16.9 m | 4.1 m | 8.4 m | -43.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 0 | 0 | 30.0 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
02 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
50% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -7.3% | 38 (vs peers) | 21% |
| Net margin · Quality | -6.1% | 56 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 8.2% | 68 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -5.2x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -2.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial68/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality44/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (TNDM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 7.9%; net margin -6.1%; ROE -48.0%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 3.2x
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: -5.2x
- FCF yield: -2.0%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus (SIC 3841) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYKStryker Corp | 116.8 bn | 32.7 | 16.0% | 13.8% | +11.2% | −17% / +4% |
| MMM3m Company | 92.2 bn | 26.6 | 80.8% | 14.0% | +1.5% | +4% / +115% |
| BSXBoston Scientific Corporation | 64.2 bn | 18.8 | 14.3% | 16.6% | +19.9% | −56% / −21% |
| BDXBecton, Dickinson And Company | 54.1 bn | 60.0 | 3.8% | 4.0% | +8.2% | +30% / +7% |
| RMDResMed Inc. | 32.8 bn | 21.2 | 26.4% | 27.8% | +9.9% | −9% / +48% |
| DXCMDexcom, Inc. | 31.6 bn | 33.4 | 37.7% | 19.4% | +15.6% | +34% / −27% |
| WSTWest Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. | 28.4 bn | 45.8 | 21.2% | 18.8% | +6.3% | +47% / +16% |
| PENPenumbra, Inc | 12.7 bn | 80.9 | 10.7% | 10.1% | +17.5% | +10% / +45% |
| HTFLHeartflow, Inc. | 4.7 bn | — | — | -55.8% | +39.9% | +69% / unavailable |
| ICUIIcu Medical Inc | 4.1 bn | 135.6 | 1.4% | 1.4% | −6.3% | +9% / +85% |
| PLSEPulse Biosciences, Inc. | 3.8 bn | — | -78.5% | -6,755.8% | unavailable | +286% / +486% |
| SKINSkinHealth Systems Inc. | 1.4 bn | — | -43.9% | -9.8% | −10.0% | +601% / +305% |
| TNDMTandem Diabetes Care, Inc. | 1.3 bn | — | -48.0% | -6.1% | +7.9% | +33% / +19% |
| PRCTPROCEPT BioRobotics Corporation | 1.1 bn | — | -30.2% | -32.5% | +37.2% | −39% / −48% |
| IARTIntegra Lifesciences Holdings Corp | 1.1 bn | 81.1 | 1.2% | 0.8% | +1.5% | +4% / −65% |
| BBNXBeta Bionics, Inc. | 864.4 m | — | -23.9% | -65.3% | +53.9% | −49% / unavailable |
| TCMDTactile Systems Technology, Inc. | 512.3 m | 22.3 | 11.0% | 6.7% | +12.5% | −11% / +72% |
| SGHTSight Sciences, Inc. | 504.1 m | — | -48.4% | -35.7% | −3.1% | +9% / +168% |
| DCTHDelcath Systems, Inc. | 495.8 m | 1,152.7 | 0.5% | 0.6% | +129.1% | +47% / +420% |
| CARLCarlsmed, Inc. | 410.1 m | — | -6,196.9% | -57.4% | +85.9% | −8% / unavailable |
| CTSOCytosorbents Corporation | 258.9 m | — | -336.2% | -48.9% | +4.1% | −75% / −83% |
| PROFProfound Medical Corp. | 245.9 m | — | -73.5% | -171.6% | +50.7% | +2% / −38% |
| UTMDUtah Medical Products, Inc. | 224.6 m | 21.5 | 8.8% | 29.0% | −5.8% | +25% / −16% |
| TLSITriSalus Life Sciences, Inc. | 223.5 m | — | — | -62.6% | +53.4% | −47% / −9% |
| PDEXPro-Dex, Inc. | 184.5 m | 15.9 | 26.5% | 15.1% | +16.5% | +58% / +257% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TNDM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Tandem Diabetes Care is a global insulin delivery company that makes automated insulin pumps and digital diabetes solutions, serving nearly 500,000 people in more than 25 countries. The company is now expanding its pay-as-you-go reimbursement model in the U.S., and its second quarter 2026 sales reached $254.6 million with a 57% gross margin.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company offers pumps with closed-loop technology validated in peer-reviewed clinical studies, supporting its claim to global leadership. Remote software updates for pumps are a competitive advantage the company highlights.
- The recurring revenue model from supplies creates a stable customer base. The company reported a marked improvement in gross and operating margin in the second quarter of 2026.
- Partnerships with CGM makers such as Dexcom and Abbott allow pumps to integrate with several glucose monitoring systems.
Weaknesses
- The company has incurred net losses since its founding, and sustained profitability is not assured. Revenue depends almost entirely on insulin pumps and their associated supplies.
- The company relies on a few independent distributors for fulfilment in the U.S. and Canada, and some suppliers are sole or limited sources, creating supply risk.
- The shift to pharmacy reimbursement could temporarily reduce sales and profit when pumps ship, making quarterly results more volatile.
Opportunities
- The insulin pump market is under-penetrated, especially outside the U.S. and among people with type 2 diabetes, offering growth potential. Expanded Control-IQ+ indications could open new segments.
- Development of a tubeless Mobi, a patch pump and a dual glucose-ketone sensor could broaden the product range. The FDA submission for tubeless Mobi is under review.
- The move to direct operations in Europe could improve margins and control over customers if execution succeeds.
Threats
- Competitors with new products or more competitive prices could reduce market share. New therapeutic breakthroughs could make pumps less attractive.
- Changes to U.S. reimbursement policy, including Medicare competitive bidding, could affect revenue per pump and the timing of recognized sales.
- Dependence on CGM sensor supply agreements, which can be terminated on short notice, could affect product compatibility.
Risks
- Persistent net losseshigh
The company has not yet achieved consistent net profitability, and expenses could rise with new product launches. If sales do not grow in proportion, operating losses could increase.
- Transition to pharmacy reimbursementhigh
If the pay-as-you-go model fails to attract and retain customers, growth could be affected. The company acknowledges that the short-term effect on sales is uncertain.
- Medicare reimbursement reformmedium
The proposed Medicare competitive bidding and monthly rental payment could reduce reimbursement rates and delay recognition of pump sales.
- Supplier and distributor dependencemedium
Some components and supplies come from a limited number of suppliers, and a disruption could limit production and deliveries to customers.
- Intellectual property litigationmedium
The medical device industry is marked by frequent patent litigation. A challenge to the company's patents or infringement claims could lead to damages or restrictions on sales.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If pump adoption rises from today's under-penetrated levels, the company could benefit from a broad customer base and a growing stream of recurring supply revenue.
- Rising gross margin and an improved operating margin in the second quarter of 2026 could suggest the business model is stabilising, particularly if the pharmacy transition succeeds.
- Expanded indications and CGM compatibility could open new markets and ease competitive pressure.
What would break the thesis
- The company has not yet demonstrated consistent net profitability, and operating losses could persist if sales do not grow enough.
- The shift to pharmacy reimbursement could temporarily reduce revenue and create quarterly volatility if adoption is insufficient.
- Competitors with new products or more favourable reimbursement terms could reduce the company's market share and add pricing pressure.
What to watch
- Trend in gross margin and whether sales guidance stays within the reaffirmed 2026 rangeQ3 2026
- Pace of sales growth through the pharmacy channel and the effect of the pay-as-you-go model on pump shipmentsQ3 2026
- FDA decision on the 510(k) submission for tubeless Mobi2026
- Results of the transition to direct operations in Europe and other international marketsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Tandem Diabetes Care, headquartered in San Diego, designs, develops and sells automated insulin delivery systems, mainly the t:slim X2 and Tandem Mobi pumps, both featuring Control-IQ+ hybrid closed-loop technology 13. The company serves nearly 500,000 people with diabetes in more than 25 countries and is expanding its portfolio toward people with type 2 diabetes who need intensive insulin therapy 1. Its products are assembled and tested in San Diego, while single-use supplies are partly supplied by third parties 1.
Revenue combines the sale of durable pumps with recurring sales of supplies such as insulin cartridges and infusion sets, which are replaced every few days 1. As the company shifts to pharmacy reimbursement, the pump is no longer fully reimbursed upfront, so revenue depends increasingly on supplies, making customer retention essential 12. The company reports a positive overall gross margin in 2023, 2024 and 2025, but net losses in those same years 1.
Guidance for 2026 was reaffirmed in the August 2026 results, with sales estimated between $1.065 billion and $1.085 billion, a gross margin of 56% to 57% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 5% to 6% 3. The company also lowered its estimate of non-cash charges to about $85 million from $100 million 3.
Segments
Automated insulin pumps (Tandem Mobi and t:slim X2)
These pumps generate nearly all of the company's sales, and the supplies used with them provide recurring revenue 1. Tandem Mobi is described as the world's smallest durable automated insulin delivery system, with mobile app control and an Android release in the U.S. 1.
Market context
The company estimates about 5 million people with type 1 diabetes live in its served geographies, about 2 million of them in the U.S., plus about 2.5 million people in the U.S. with type 2 diabetes who require intensive insulin therapy 1. Insulin pump penetration remains low: in the U.S. only about 40% of people with type 1 diabetes and 5% of people with type 2 diabetes use pump therapy 1.
Internationally, average pump adoption is estimated at about 20%, which leaves considerable room for growth 1. American Diabetes Association standards prefer automated systems over non-automated pumps and multiple daily injections, which could support adoption 1.
Trends
- Shift to pharmacy reimbursementmixed
The company is moving from durable medical equipment reimbursement to a pay-as-you-go pharmacy model in which the pump is not reimbursed upfront 12. The company expects the lower upfront cost could accelerate adoption, but sales and gross profit could fall temporarily when pumps ship 1.
- Control-IQ+ launch and expanded indicationstailwind
Control-IQ+, launched in 2025, received FDA clearance and CE Mark for use in pregnancy with type 1 diabetes and CE Mark for adults with type 2 diabetes in 2026 23. These expansions could open new patient segments.
- Medicare reimbursement pressureheadwind
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services finalized a competitive bidding process for some equipment, including insulin pumps, and a monthly rental payment basis, which could affect reimbursement rates and the timing of sales 1.
- Direct international expansionmixed
From 2026 the company is moving from distributors to direct operations in several European markets, starting with the United Kingdom, Austria and Switzerland, and has begun the international commercial rollout of Mobi 13. The transition could raise costs in the short term but could improve control over sales.
Competitive position
The insulin delivery market is intensely competitive, with companies such as Beta Bionics, Insulet, Medtronic, mylife (formerly Ypsomed) and Sequel, and several other firms developing their own systems 1. Competition also comes from pharmaceutical and research companies developing new delivery devices, sensors or therapies 1.
Competitive risk shows up in pricing, user adoption and rival product launches, which could reduce market share or customer retention 1. The company notes that competitor approvals and launches can delay purchasing decisions 1.
- Beta Bionics
Maker of automated insulin delivery systems, named in the annual report as a primary competitor.
- InsuletPODD
Maker of insulin pump systems, named explicitly as a primary competitor for insulin pumps.
- MedtronicMDT
Medical technology company with an insulin pump line, cited as a direct competitor in the annual report.
- mylife (formerly Ypsomed)
Insulin system maker named as a competitor, which the company faces in international markets.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Grain boundary engineering using metallomesogen in formamidinium–caesium lead triiodide for stable perovskite/silicon tandem solar cellsNature Energy · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Sunt șanse mari ca dronele care vor lupta în tandem cu avioanele Rafale F5 să nu fie franceze. De ce ar alege Franța drone americaneDefenseRomania.ro · 30 Oct 2026 · RO
- Portret de candidat.Cine este Dan Barna, candidatul Alianţei USR-PLUS la alegerile prezidenţiale. A lucrat cu Dacian Cioloş şi a ajuns să facă tandem cu el, preşedinte-premier - LibertateaLibertatea.ro · 30 Oct 2026 · RO
- O nouă strategie: ofensivă a nemţilor pe retail banking în România, în tandem cu creditarea IMM-urilor. Singura bancă românească cu capital german schimbă strategia. ProCredit Bank, specializată pe finanţarea IMM-urilor, vrea să dezvolte mai mult şi segmentul retail şi consolidează şi echipa de managementZiarul Financiar · 29 Oct 2026 · RO
- Perovskite lattice compliance enables efficient and stable bifacial perovskite/silicon tandem photovoltaicsNature Energy · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Tandem repeat variation shapes immune cell type-specific gene expressionNature · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- Assisted Tandem Catalysis with M–M Bonded Heterobimetallic Pd–Pt Complexes: Accessing Both Pd and Pt Catalytic CyclesJournal of the American Chemical Society · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- Accelerated Zeolite Defect Healing Suppresses Oxygen-Containing Species Trapping for Tandem Propene EpoxidationJournal of the American Chemical Society · 16 Oct 2026 · EN
- Tandem Health tops Sifted’s ranking of 100 standout AI startups in EuropeSifted (EU startups) · 15 Oct 2026 · EN
- Mode-Selective Tip-Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy Reveals Asymmetric Chemical and Carrier-Sensitive Raman Grading in Photovoltaic III–V Tandem Nanowire JunctionsACS Nano · 12 Oct 2026 · EN
- Tandem RNA-binding domain architecture drives PKR activation through an intramolecular interfacePNAS · 30 Sept 2026 · EN
- Băsescu explică strategiile lui Călin Georgescu și George Simion: „Tandem încă nedeclarat” - Newsweek RomâniaSurge — Google News · 20 Sept 2026 · RO
- EU Scaleup Fund leads $100m Tandem Health raiseSifted (EU startups) · 14 Sept 2026 · EN
- Tandem Health scores $100M Series B, led by EU’s €5bn tech startup fundTech.eu · 14 Sept 2026 · EN
- Le Pen-Bardella, tandem en péril ?Politico EU · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Uniform film formation helps tandem solar cells work better for longerNature · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Interfacial Charge Reconfiguration Decouples Tandem Kinetics of Dilute Nitrate Electroreduction for Ammonia RecoveryEnvironmental Science & Technology · 07 Sept 2026 · EN
- Russia develops unmanned boats operating in tandem with UAVsTASS (RU, EN) · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
- Vaporization trick enables ‘tandem’ solar cells to be made at lower temperaturesNature · 26 Aug 2026 · EN
- LG’s 27-inch Tandem OLED gaming monitor is cheaper than everThe Verge · 30 Jun 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 May 2026Item 3.03 · Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement07 Apr 2026
- Current report27 Feb 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Item 3.02 · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report19 Feb 2026
- Current report19 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. · 19 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.