olivLaw · US equity research
Merck & Co., Inc. MRK
Pharmaceutical Preparations · SIC 2834 · Vertical: Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834)
Merck & Co., Inc. is a global health care company selling prescription medicines, vaccines and animal health products, organized into two reportable segments: Pharmaceutical and Animal Health. Sales were 65,011 million USD in fiscal 2025, and Keytruda represented 49% of total sales. For 2026 the company now expects worldwide sales between 66.3 and 67.3 billion USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) stock was 150.36 USD (+3.93% on the day), with market capitalisation 370.7 bn USD, P/E 154.7 on diluted EPS of 0.97 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.26%, beta 0.30, 52-week range 84.39–156.45 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 18.1 bn USD (+4.7% YoY), net income of 5.1 bn USD (−12.4% YoY), diluted EPS 2.04 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 56.7
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 139.76 – 151.32
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.92 · band width 7.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 146.54 / 127.28
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.58 / 0.15
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +7.8% | −1.1% | +8.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | +17.2% | −0.5% | +17.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | +32.4% | +4.4% | +28.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +42.8% | +12.3% | +30.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | +79.3% | +13.5% | +65.8 pp | +28.1% |
| 3 years | +45.4% | +76.4% | −31.0 pp | +66.7% |
| 5 years | +84.2% | +63.7% | +20.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 15.6 bn | 15.5 bn | 15.8 bn | 17.3 bn | 16.4 bn | 16.3 bn | 16.6 bn | 18.1 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 3.8 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.9 bn | 5.6 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.9 bn |
| Research & development | 4.6 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.2 bn | 3.9 bn | 12.6 bn | 9.7 bn | 4.5 bn |
| SG&A | 2.9 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn |
| Interest expense | 328.0 m | 313.0 m | 305.0 m | 327.0 m | 411.0 m | 479.0 m | 525.0 m | 546.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 4.2 bn | 5.9 bn | 5.0 bn | 6.7 bn | 3.4 bn | -3.5 bn | -683.0 m | 5.6 bn |
| Income tax | 426.0 m | 818.0 m | 571.0 m | 958.0 m | 458.0 m | 709.0 m | 654.0 m | 492.0 m |
| Net income | 3.7 bn | 5.1 bn | 4.4 bn | 5.8 bn | 3.0 bn | -4.2 bn | -1.3 bn | 5.1 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 1.48 ≈ | 2.01 | 1.76 | 2.32 | 1.19 ≈ | -1.72 | -0.54 | 2.04 |
| Operating cash flow | 3.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 3.3 bn ≈ | 7.8 bn ≈ | 2.9 bn | 3.9 bn | 5.4 bn ≈ | 6.6 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 937.0 m | 1.3 bn | 764.0 m ≈ | 987.0 m ≈ | 1.0 bn | 991.0 m | 893.0 m ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn ≈ | 2.0 bn ≈ | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn ≈ | 2.1 bn ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 489.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn | 874.0 m | 757.0 m ≈ | 653.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 98 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 11.1, median 27.4, max 792.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 42.3 bn | 39.1 bn | 41.5 bn | 48.7 bn | 59.3 bn | 60.1 bn | 64.2 bn | 65.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +5.4% | −7.5% | +6.1% | +17.3% | +21.7% | +1.4% | +6.7% | +1.3% |
| Net income | 6.2 bn | 9.8 bn | 7.1 bn | 13.0 bn | 14.5 bn | 365.0 m | 17.1 bn | 18.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | +159.8% | +58.2% | −28.2% | +84.6% | +11.3% | −97.5% | +4,589.6% | +6.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.32 | 3.81 | 2.78 | 5.14 | 5.71 | 0.14 | 6.74 | 7.28 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +166.7% | +64.2% | −27.0% | +84.9% | +11.1% | −97.5% | +4,714.3% | +8.0% |
| net % | 14.7% | 25.2% | 17.0% | 26.8% | 24.5% | 0.6% | 26.7% | 28.1% |
| Free cash flow | 8.3 bn | 10.1 bn | 5.8 bn | unavailable | 14.7 bn | 9.1 bn | 18.1 bn | 12.4 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 14.6 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 49.3 bn USD
- Net debt
- 34.8 bn USD
- Equity
- 52.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 136.9 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.94x
- Current ratio
- 1.54x
- ROE
- 36.9%
- ROA
- 14.4%
- FCF margin
- 19.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 41.5 bn | 48.7 bn | 59.3 bn | 60.1 bn | 64.2 bn | 65.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 13.6 bn | 13.6 bn | 17.4 bn | 16.1 bn | 15.2 bn | 16.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 27.9 bn ≈ | 35.1 bn ≈ | 41.9 bn ≈ | 44.0 bn ≈ | 49.0 bn ≈ | 48.6 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived |
| Research & development | 13.4 bn | 12.2 bn | 13.5 bn | 30.5 bn | 17.9 bn | 15.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 9.0 bn | 9.6 bn | 10.0 bn | 10.5 bn | 10.8 bn | 10.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 831.0 m | 806.0 m | 962.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 5.9 bn | 13.9 bn | 16.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 19.9 bn | 21.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 7.1 bn | 13.0 bn | 14.5 bn | 365.0 m | 17.1 bn | 18.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.78 | 5.14 | 5.71 | 0.14 | 6.74 | 7.28 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.48 | 2.64 | 2.80 | 2.96 | 3.12 | 3.28 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 8.1 bn | 8.1 bn | 12.7 bn | 6.8 bn | 13.2 bn | 14.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 6.8 bn | 9.2 bn | 9.5 bn | 10.3 bn | 10.3 bn | 11.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 5.6 bn | 6.0 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 27.8 bn | 30.3 bn | 35.7 bn | 32.2 bn | 38.8 bn | 43.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 17.0 bn | 19.3 bn | 21.4 bn | 23.1 bn | 23.8 bn | 25.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 18.9 bn | 21.3 bn | 21.2 bn | 21.2 bn | 21.7 bn | 21.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 14.1 bn | 22.9 bn | 20.3 bn | 18.0 bn | 16.4 bn | 26.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 91.6 bn | 105.7 bn | 109.2 bn | 106.7 bn | 117.1 bn | 136.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 4.3 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.3 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 6.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 25.4 bn | 30.7 bn | 28.7 bn | 33.7 bn | 34.5 bn | 46.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 27.3 bn | 23.9 bn | 24.2 bn | 25.7 bn | 28.4 bn | 28.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 25.4 bn | 38.3 bn | 46.1 bn | 37.6 bn | 46.4 bn | 52.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 10.3 bn | — | 19.1 bn | 13.0 bn | 21.5 bn | 16.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 4.4 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.4 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 5.8 bn ≈ | — | 14.7 bn ≈ | 9.1 bn ≈ | 18.1 bn ≈ | 12.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -9.4 bn | — | -5.0 bn | -14.1 bn | -7.7 bn | -13.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -2.8 bn | — | -9.1 bn | -4.8 bn | -7.0 bn | -1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 6.2 bn | 6.6 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.4 bn | 7.8 bn | 8.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 1.3 bn | 840.0 m | 0 | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 44 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 370.7 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation28
- Balance sheet46
- Quality55
- Growth41
- Returns64
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 30.75 – 126.78 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)71.96 – 126.78 (Mid 92.58)WACC 8.5% · starting FCFF 15.8 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 22.6%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E30.75 – 43.15 (Mid 41.24)8 companies used · median multiple 42.4x · quartiles 31.6x – 44.4xABBV, ABT, BMY, JNJ, LLY, PFE, REGN, VRTX
- Dividend discount (DDM)43.10 – 57.97 (Mid 49.44)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 44/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 3.6% | 10 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 601.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 3.1% | 26 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 8.4% | 56 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 46 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 154.7x | 10 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 4.0% | 50 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.2% | 46 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 56.7% | 90 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial46/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth41/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality55/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns64/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation28/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 65.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 1.3%; net margin 3.6%; ROE 5.1%.
The estimated value range is 43.10–57.97 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 49.44 USD, the price of 150.36 USD leaves a potential of -67.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -204.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 44/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 601.1%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 56.7%
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 3.6%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 3.1%
- P/E (TTM): 154.7x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 45.4 bn and 2,906.1 bn (within 8× of the company's); 365 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLYEli Lilly And Company | 1,334.0 bn | 46.0 | 86.1% | 31.9% | +44.7% | +32% / +140% |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | 665.2 bn | 41.9 | 20.0% | 16.2% | +6.0% | +34% / +79% |
| ONCBeone Medicines Ltd. | 558.4 bn | 869.9 | 14.7% | 10.7% | +40.2% | +11% / +102% |
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | 521.1 bn | 50.7 | — | 15.7% | +8.6% | +29% / +107% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | 370.7 bn | 154.7 | 5.1% | 3.6% | +1.3% | +79% / +45% |
| ABTAbbott Laboratories | 200.1 bn | 43.0 | 9.2% | 9.7% | +5.7% | −10% / +11% |
| PFEPfizer Inc | 175.5 bn | 43.9 | 4.4% | 6.3% | −1.6% | +20% / +1% |
| VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Inc | 139.2 bn | 35.3 | 20.8% | 30.7% | +8.9% | +27% / +55% |
| BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | 131.2 bn | 14.2 | 44.1% | 18.5% | −0.2% | +30% / +30% |
| TEVATeva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited | 48.8 bn | 97.4 | 6.6% | 3.6% | +4.3% | +56% / +326% |
| REGNRegeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | — | 20.6 | 14.9% | 28.5% | +1.0% | +19% / +13% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MRK from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 89.74 Total return -40% · Per year -40% | 158.77 Total return 6% · Per year 6% | 239.29 Total return 60% · Per year 60% |
| 3 years | 84.70 Total return -42% · Per year -17% | 168.84 Total return 14% · Per year 5% | 279.74 Total return 89% · Per year 24% |
| 5 years | 79.94 Total return -44% · Per year -11% | 179.54 Total return 23% · Per year 4% | 327.03 Total return 122% · Per year 17% |
- Exit P/E± 42.21
- Net margin± 29.55
- Annual revenue growth± 24.58
- Annual dilution± 2.48
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Merck & Co., Inc. is a global health care company selling prescription medicines, vaccines and animal health products, organized into two reportable segments: Pharmaceutical and Animal Health. Sales were 65,011 million USD in fiscal 2025 1, and Keytruda represented 49% of total sales 1. For 2026 the company now expects worldwide sales between 66.3 and 67.3 billion USD 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- A strong oncology franchise led by Keytruda, with recent subcutaneous launches.
- Diversification across several segments, including animal health, which keeps growing.
- Substantial research capacity, with many Phase 3 studies underway.
Weaknesses
- High dependence on a few products, especially Keytruda, which accounts for almost half of sales.
- Lower Gardasil sales in China have significantly weighed on the business in that region.
- Recent acquisitions created large research charges that reduce near-term profit.
Opportunities
- Launches such as Winrevair, Lipfendra and Welireg could open new markets and support growth.
- Subcutaneous formulations could widen use of oncology therapies.
- Acquisitions in antiviral and oncology areas could complement the internal pipeline.
Threats
- Patent expirations, including for Keytruda, could lead to rapid sales declines.
- Government pricing pressure in the U.S. and Europe could reduce margins.
- Biosimilar and generic competition could reduce share for mature products.
Risks
- Loss of exclusivityhigh
Losing exclusivity on important products could lead to rapid sales declines, and the company relies on new launches to offset them 1.
- Concentration on Keytrudahigh
A negative event affecting Keytruda could have a major impact on financial results 1.
- Pricing pressuremedium
Reforms in the U.S. and other countries could reduce prices and margins, and cost-reduction measures could continue 2.
- China exposuremedium
Lower demand for Gardasil in China has significantly reduced business in that region 1.
- Research and development riskmedium
The failure rate in drug research is high, and if an acquired candidate fails, the investment could be lost 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If recent launches such as Winrevair, Welireg and Lipfendra keep growing, they could offset losses from exclusivity on mature products.
- If Keytruda Qlex expands adoption, the subcutaneous form could support the company's oncology position.
- If diversification through acquisitions yields successful candidates, the company could reduce its dependence on Keytruda.
What would break the thesis
- If Keytruda patent expiry leads to early biosimilar competition, its main sales could fall quickly.
- If pricing pressure in the U.S. and Europe intensifies, margins could be affected over the long term.
- If large acquisition costs do not produce clinical results, profit could remain below expectations.
What to watch
- Progress against the 2026 sales and non-GAAP EPS outlookQ3 2026
- Uptake of Keytruda Qlex and its effect on the share of the intravenous formQ4 2026
- Loss of exclusivity for Januvia and Bridion in the U.S. and the effect on sales2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
Market context
Merck operates in pharmaceutical and animal health markets in the United States and worldwide. Worldwide sales were 65.0 billion USD in fiscal 2025, up 1% from 2024, or 2% excluding the unfavorable effect of foreign exchange 1. Growth came from oncology, cardiometabolic and respiratory, diabetes and animal health, offset by declines in vaccines and virology 1.
Pricing pressure is significant: the Inflation Reduction Act set a government price for Januvia effective January 2026, and Keytruda is expected to be selected for price setting in 2027 2. The three-year most-favored-nation agreement with the U.S. government signed in December 2025 includes discounted Medicaid pricing and direct-to-patient pricing 2.
Trends
- Loss of market exclusivityheadwind
Bridion, Januvia and Janumet lose exclusivity in the U.S. in 2026, and Keytruda biosimilar competition could begin in late 2028 1. These losses could reduce sales significantly unless offset by new products.
- New product launchestailwind
Winrevair, Capvaxive, Welireg and Ohtuvayre grew quickly in 2026, and Lipfendra, the first once-daily oral PCSK9 inhibitor approved by the FDA, could open a new market 3. These launches could offset losses from exclusivity.
- Pricing pressure and reformsheadwind
The IRA, 340B program rules and most-favored-nation agreements pressure U.S. pricing, and Germany's GKV-BStabG law could reduce sales from 2027 2.
- Acquisitions and external innovationmixed
The Cidara, Terns and TARGAN acquisitions broadened the portfolio, but research charges may weigh on profitability in the short term 23. The outcome depends on the clinical success of the acquired candidates.
Competitive position
Competition comes from generic and biosimilar products as well as from other companies' medicines, which may offer more effective treatments 1. Pressure is amplified as key product patents expire.
Competition in vaccines and diabetes has intensified, and the decline in U.S. Januvia sales reflects direct competition and generic competition 3. The company remains exposed to demand shifts in markets such as China.
- PfizerPFE
Partner on the Keytruda and Padcev combination and a competitor in oncology 1.
- AstraZenecaAZN
Collaborator on Lynparza, an alliance partner of Merck 1.
- Gilead SciencesGILD
Partner on HIV programs and on the Keytruda combination with sacituzumab govitecan 13.
- ModernaMRNA
Partner on the individualized neoantigen therapy V940, still in development 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- STAT+: Pharmalittle: We’re reading about a generic HIV prevention shot, Lonza buying U.S. facilities, and moreSTAT News · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Regulatable membrane-bound IL-15 engineered TIL cell therapy for immune checkpoint inhibitor-resistant advanced melanoma: pooled analysis of phase 1 and 1/2 trialsNature Medicine · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- STAT+: Pharmalittle: We’re reading about payments to Russian middlemen, a possible Dupixent rival, and moreSTAT News · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Pharma's next cash cows could be specialized treatmentsAxios · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Vaccinurile viitorului ar putea fi administrate fără ace și personalizate pentru fiecare pacientMediafax · 02 Nov 2026 · RO
- Neoadjuvant botensilimab with or without balstilimab in pMMR and dMMR colon cancer: the phase 2 UNICORN trialNature Medicine · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Povorcitinib for nonsegmental vitiligo: two randomized, controlled, phase 3 STOP-V trialsNature Medicine · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Global, regional and national burden of cervical cancer in 1990–2023 with forecasts to 2050: a Global Burden of Disease studyNature Medicine · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Nasdaq scade 2,8% pe fondul rezultatelor Intel și Amazon, care amplifică vânzările în AI - InvezzSurge — Google News · 30 Oct 2026 · RO
- Assessing Merck and Moderna’s mRNA cancer vaccineSTAT News · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Merck tops quarterly estimates, hikes profit outlook as new form of Keytruda shows strengthCNBC — Top News · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- 5-year outcomes of chemotherapy de-escalation in HER2-positive early breast cancer and exploratory circulating tumor DNA analyses from the randomized phase 2 PHERGain trialNature Medicine · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Birth weight, cognitive reserve and outcomes after first-episode psychosisNature Mental Health · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- Q&A: Could a new melanoma vaccine change cancer treatment?Medical Xpress · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- STAT+: Pharmalittle: We’re reading about a Novo setback in court, a House probe into big PBMs, and moreSTAT News · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- Фондовые индексы США выросли вслед за акциями ИИ-компанийInterfax Russia (RU) · 27 Oct 2026 · RU
- Metabolic heterogeneity of obesityNature Medicine · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- Moderna CEO Sees Cancer Vaccines Working Beyond MelanomaBloomberg Markets · 26 Oct 2026 · EN
- Zile libere suplimentare, program flexibil și sprijin pentru părinți. România pregătește certificarea companiilor prietenoase cu familiaMediafax · 26 Oct 2026 · RO
- STAT+: Merck ADC drug cut risk of death by one-third in advanced endometrial cancerSTAT News · 26 Oct 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 03 Nov 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report22 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report04 May 2026
- Current report30 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement08 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Merck & Co., Inc. · 24 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Merck & Co., Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Merck & Co., Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.