olivLaw · US equity research
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX
Pharmaceutical Preparations · SIC 2834 · Vertical: Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834)
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) is a global biotechnology company focused on serious diseases, with total revenues of 12.0 billion USD in fiscal 2025. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue rose 12% to 3.33 billion USD, and full-year 2026 guidance was raised to 13.1-13.2 billion USD. The company is diversifying beyond cystic fibrosis, and the pending Crinetics acquisition could add a fifth pillar in rare endocrine disease.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) stock was 549.04 USD (+3.44% on the day), with market capitalisation 139.2 bn USD, P/E 35.3 on diluted EPS of 15.54 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.48, 52-week range 409.47–558.88 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 3.4 bn USD (+11.8% YoY), net income of 653.6 m USD (−39.6% YoY), diluted EPS 2.56 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 59.3
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 482.07 – 559.21
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.87 · band width 14.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 522.90 / 480.77
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 8.42 / 4.75
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +9.0% | −1.1% | +10.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | +13.2% | −0.5% | +13.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +28.4% | +4.4% | +24.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +21.1% | +12.3% | +8.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +30.2% | +13.5% | +16.7 pp | +27.3% |
| 3 years | +45.9% | +76.4% | −30.5 pp | +90.4% |
| 5 years | +184.7% | +63.7% | +121.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.9 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 423.4 m | 363.0 m | 407.5 m | 414.8 m | 466.0 m | 392.8 m | 489.2 m | 526.1 m |
| SG&A | 377.6 m | 396.4 m | 424.6 m | 445.1 m | 487.0 m | 493.7 m | 582.2 m | 844.1 m |
| Operating income | 1.0 bn | 630.1 m | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 712.9 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 46.5 m | 48.4 m | 51.7 m | 54.0 m | 55.7 m | 55.9 m | 56.5 m | 69.2 m |
| Interest expense | 2.8 m | 3.0 m | 3.7 m | 3.3 m | 3.3 m | — | — | 36.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 1.1 bn | 730.4 m | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 783.4 m |
| Income tax | 223.5 m | 84.1 m | 250.1 m | 215.9 m | 139.9 m | 221.5 m | 292.0 m | 129.8 m |
| Net income | 913.0 m | 646.3 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 653.6 m |
| Diluted EPS | 3.55 ≈ | 2.49 | 3.99 | 4.20 | 4.65 ≈ | 4.02 | 4.31 | 2.56 |
| Operating cash flow | 584.6 m | 818.9 m | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 498.0 m | 1.4 bn | 1.1 bn ≈ | 643.1 m ≈ |
| Capex | 92.6 m | 40.7 m | 145.7 m ≈ | 101.8 m ≈ | 149.4 m | 133.4 m | 112.2 m ≈ | 97.3 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 417.9 m | 426.1 m | 391.8 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 128.4 m | 336.9 m | 469.5 m ≈ | 126.7 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 71 percentile of its own 35-quarter history (min 20.5, median 27.2, max 194.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | ⚠ 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.0 bn | 4.2 bn | 6.2 bn | 7.6 bn | 8.9 bn | 9.9 bn | 11.0 bn | 12.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +22.5% | — | +49.1% | +22.1% | +17.9% | +10.5% | +11.7% | +8.9% |
| Net income | 2.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.6 bn | -535.6 m | 4.0 bn |
| Net income YoY | +695.8% | — | +130.4% | −13.6% | +41.8% | +9.0% | −114.8% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 8.09 | 4.51 | 10.29 | 9.01 | 12.82 | 13.89 | -2.08 | 15.32 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +677.9% | — | +128.2% | −12.4% | +42.3% | +8.3% | −115.0% | unavailable |
| net % | 68.8% | 28.3% | 43.7% | 30.9% | 37.2% | 36.7% | -4.9% | 32.9% |
| Free cash flow | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.3 bn | -790.3 m | 3.2 bn |
The series breaks before 2019: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 5.1 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 0 USD
- Net debt
- -5.1 bn USD
- Equity
- 18.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 25.6 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- 2.90x
- ROE
- 22.5%
- ROA
- 16.4%
- FCF margin
- 26.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.2 bn | 7.6 bn | 8.9 bn | 9.9 bn | 11.0 bn | 12.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 736.3 m | 904.2 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 5.5 bn ≈ | 6.7 bn ≈ | 7.9 bn ≈ | 8.6 bn ≈ | 9.5 bn ≈ | 10.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Research & development | 1.8 bn | 3.1 bn | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2022verified |
| SG&A | 770.5 m | 840.1 m | 944.7 m | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 2.9 bn | 2.8 bn | 4.3 bn | 3.8 bn | -232.9 m | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 109.5 m | 125.6 m | 148.3 m | 181.3 m | 207.2 m | 209.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 3.0 bn ≈ | 2.9 bn ≈ | 4.5 bn ≈ | 4.0 bn ≈ | -25.7 m ≈ | 4.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 58.2 m | — | 54.8 m | 44.1 m | 30.6 m | 13.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 3.1 bn | 2.7 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.4 bn | 248.5 m | 4.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 405.2 m | 388.3 m | 910.4 m | 760.2 m | 784.1 m | 690.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 2.7 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.6 bn | -535.6 m | 4.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 10.29 | 9.01 | 12.82 | 13.89 | -2.08 | 15.32 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 263.4 m | 259.9 m | 259.1 m | 260.5 m | 257.9 m | 258.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 6.0 bn | 6.8 bn | 10.5 bn | 10.4 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 885.4 m | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 280.8 m | 353.1 m | 460.6 m | 738.8 m | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 8.1 bn | 9.6 bn | 13.2 bn | 14.1 bn | 9.6 bn | 11.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 400.0 m | 400.0 m | 603.6 m | 839.9 m | 825.9 m | 424.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 11.8 bn | 13.4 bn | 18.2 bn | 22.7 bn | 22.5 bn | 25.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 155.1 m | 195.0 m | 303.9 m | 364.9 m | 413.0 m | 461.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Nov 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 4.2 bn | 5.1 bn | 6.1 bn | 7.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 8.7 bn | 10.1 bn | 13.9 bn † | 17.6 bn † | 16.4 bn † | 18.7 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 3.3 bn | 2.6 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.5 bn | -492.6 m | 3.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 259.8 m | 235.0 m | 204.7 m | 200.4 m | 297.7 m | 437.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 3.0 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | 3.9 bn ≈ | 3.3 bn ≈ | -790.3 m ≈ | 3.2 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 99.4 m | -340.9 m | -321.1 m | -3.1 bn | -3.8 bn | -945.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -505.3 m | -1.5 bn | -67.7 m | -562.2 m | -1.5 bn | -2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 539.1 m | 1.4 bn | 0 | 427.6 m | 1.2 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 61 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 139.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation30
- Balance sheet100
- Quality76
- Growth64
- Returns11
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 195.84 – 678.11 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)195.84 – 299.63 (Mid 236.14)WACC 9.2% · starting FCFF 3.2 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/E250.98 – 678.11 (Mid 503.97)10 companies used · median multiple 32.4x · quartiles 16.2x – 43.6xABBV, ABT, ALNY, BMY, JNJ, PFE, REGN, RPRX, UTHR, ZTS
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 61/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 17.6% | 71 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 30.7% | 88 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 80.5% | 72 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 10.4% | 86 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 6.1% | 41 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 94.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 35.3x | 62 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 30.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 2.3% | 29 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.8% | 11 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth64/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality76/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial11/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation30/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INC / MA (VRTX). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 12.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 8.9%; net margin 30.7%; ROE 20.8%; net debt/EBITDA -0.1x.
The estimated value range is 223.41–488.87 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 370.05 USD, the price of 549.04 USD leaves a potential of -32.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -48.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 61/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 17.6%
- Net margin: 30.7%
- FCF conversion: 80.5%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 10.4%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.1x
- Interest coverage: 94.4x
- Current ratio: 2.3x
What contradicts it
- EV/EBITDA: 30.5x
- FCF yield: 2.3%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.8%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Pharmaceutical Preparations (SIC 2834) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 16 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 17.0 bn and 1,085.2 bn (within 8× of the company's); 359 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | 665.2 bn | 41.9 | 20.0% | 16.2% | +6.0% | +34% / +79% |
| ONCBeone Medicines Ltd. | 558.4 bn | 869.9 | 14.7% | 10.7% | +40.2% | +11% / +102% |
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | 521.1 bn | 50.7 | — | 15.7% | +8.6% | +29% / +107% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | 370.7 bn | 154.7 | 5.1% | 3.6% | +1.3% | +43% / +47% |
| ABTAbbott Laboratories | 200.1 bn | 43.0 | 9.2% | 9.7% | +5.7% | −10% / +11% |
| PFEPfizer Inc | 175.5 bn | 43.9 | 4.4% | 6.3% | −1.6% | +20% / +1% |
| VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Inc | 139.2 bn | 35.3 | 20.8% | 30.7% | +8.9% | +30% / +46% |
| BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | 131.2 bn | 14.2 | 44.1% | 18.5% | −0.2% | +30% / +30% |
| TEVATeva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited | 48.8 bn | 97.4 | 6.6% | 3.6% | +4.3% | +56% / +326% |
| ZTSZoetis Inc. | 36.9 bn | 14.7 | 64.4% | 27.5% | +2.3% | −30% / −50% |
| ROIVRoivant Sciences Ltd. | 27.6 bn | — | -6.2% | -3,535.0% | −71.6% | +84% / +300% |
| RPRXRoyalty Pharma plc | 26.2 bn | 47.7 | 6.9% | 25.7% | +5.1% | +69% / +150% |
| UTHRUnited Therapeutics Corporation | 25.9 bn | 23.0 | 19.1% | 38.6% | +10.6% | +25% / +154% |
| INSMInsmed Inc | 24.1 bn | — | -72.5% | -39.9% | +66.7% | −47% / +340% |
| VTRSViatris Inc. | 22.1 bn | — | -23.6% | -23.9% | −3.0% | +80% / +109% |
| ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 21.6 bn | 8.1 | 126.6% | 52.8% | +65.2% | −64% / −4% |
| REGNRegeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | — | 20.6 | 14.9% | 28.5% | +1.0% | +19% / +13% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for VRTX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 346.78 Total return -37% · Per year -37% | 611.45 Total return 11% · Per year 11% | 918.79 Total return 67% · Per year 67% |
| 3 years | 377.31 Total return -31% · Per year -12% | 744.60 Total return 36% · Per year 11% | 1,222.55 Total return 123% · Per year 31% |
| 5 years | 410.53 Total return -25% · Per year -6% | 906.75 Total return 65% · Per year 11% | 1,626.74 Total return 196% · Per year 24% |
- Exit P/E± 186.15
- Net margin± 130.31
- Annual revenue growth± 101.28
- Annual dilution± 10.95
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) is a global biotechnology company focused on serious diseases, with total revenues of 12.0 billion USD in fiscal 2025 1. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue rose 12% to 3.33 billion USD, and full-year 2026 guidance was raised to 13.1-13.2 billion USD 3. The company is diversifying beyond cystic fibrosis, and the pending Crinetics acquisition could add a fifth pillar in rare endocrine disease 2.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Concentration on cystic fibrosishigh
Nearly all product sales come from CF medicines, so any demand, manufacturing or safety problem could weigh heavily on results 1.
- Pricing and reimbursement pressurehigh
Cost-containment programs and pricing initiatives could reduce revenue or limit access to medicines 1.
- Crinetics integrationmedium
Closing and integrating the acquisition could face unexpected conditions or costs, and guidance does not yet include it 23.
- CASGEVY cost and complexitylow
The cell therapy is more complex and costly to produce than small molecules, which could limit margin gains 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Second-quarter 2026 revenue growth and raised guidance suggest diversification beyond CF is beginning to work, if the trend holds.
- If povetacicept is approved on schedule, the company could launch the first product of a new kidney franchise.
- Substantial cash gives flexibility for acquisitions and investment in new programs.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on CF remains high, and emerging alternatives or pricing pressure could slow growth.
- Operating costs are rising faster than some new revenue, which could compress profitability.
- Clinical setbacks in type 1 diabetes or other programs could delay or cancel future revenue sources.
What to watch
- FDA decision on povetacicept in IgANNovember 30 2026
- Closing of the Crinetics acquisition and updated guidanceQ3 2026
- AMPLITUDE interim data for inaxaplinearly 2027
- CASGEVY and JOURNAVX sales in coming quartersQ3 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (03 Nov 2026), 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Its serial innovation model aims to follow first-in-class medicines with best-in-class candidates, combining internal discovery with acquisitions and collaborations such as those with CRISPR, Moderna and Entrada 1. Vertex says its approved CF medicines can treat about 95% of people with CF in core markets 3. If later-stage programs succeed, the company could significantly expand its eligible patient base.
In 2026 Vertex agreed to acquire Crinetics for about 10.0 billion USD in total equity value, with closing expected in the third quarter 2. If the transaction closes, updated 2026 guidance could follow, since current guidance does not reflect it 3.
Segments
Cystic fibrosis (CF)
CF remains the main revenue source, led by TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO and the newer ALYFTREK, which is now reimbursed in 25 countries after second-quarter 2026 expansions 2. Vertex expects continued CF growth, including uptake of ALYFTREK in children aged 2 to 5 3.
Market context
With 13.6 billion USD in cash and marketable securities at June 30, 2026 3, the company has resources for investment and acquisitions. It could gain share in new segments if reimbursement follows approvals quickly.
Trends
- Expansion to younger age groupstailwind
Approvals for young children in CF and CASGEVY open new patient populations 23. This could support volume growth if reimbursement keeps pace with approvals.
- Launch of non-CF productstailwind
CASGEVY and JOURNAVX sales grew quickly quarter over quarter 2. Guidance for over 500 million USD from non-CF products could make them a meaningful revenue pillar 3.
- Pricing and reimbursement pressureheadwind
Governments and payers are pursuing cost containment, including PDAB reviews and most-favored-nation proposals, which could lower prices or access 1.
Competitive position
Vertex faces competitors with greater resources that may reach the market first or acquire innovative smaller companies 1. Competition turns on safety, efficacy, patient convenience and price 1.
In acute pain, JOURNAVX could face cheaper alternatives, and in kidney disease povetacicept must compete in markets where other players are already active 1. The Crinetics deal could open a new front in rare endocrine disease 2.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- STAT+: Vertex kidney disease drug scrutinized for infection riskSTAT News · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals Maps Growth Beyond CF at Cantor ConferenceYahoo Finance — News · 12 Sept 2026 · EN
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX): Crinetics Acquisition Creates a New Growth Engine Beyond Cystic FibrosisYahoo Finance — News · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- Strong Core Business, Raised Guidance Push Vertex Pharmaceuticals HigherYahoo Finance — News · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- Vertex vs. Regeneron: Which Biotech Giant Is the Better Buy Right Now?Yahoo Finance — News · 04 Sept 2026 · EN
- How Is Vertex Pharmaceuticals' Stock Performance Compared to Other Biotech Stocks?Yahoo Finance — News · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
- Google Vertex AI SDK Flaw Let Attackers Hijack Model Uploads via Bucket SquattingThe Hacker News · 16 Jun 2026 · RO
The latest news item in our archive is from 29 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report03 Nov 2026
- Current report02 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report01 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
- Current report03 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report07 Jul 2026Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report05 May 2026
- Current report04 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated · 13 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated · 04 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated · 03 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.