olivLaw · US equity research
RBLX RBLX
Services-Prepackaged Software · SIC 7372 · Vertical: Services-Prepackaged Software (SIC 7372)
Roblox (RBLX) is an immersive gaming and creation platform that reported revenue of 4,890.551 million USD in fiscal 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 revenue grew 36% year-over-year to 1.5 billion USD. The company remains unprofitable, with a net loss attributable to common stockholders of 1,065.1 million USD in 2025, while bookings growth slowed to 8% in the same quarter.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, RBLX (RBLX) stock was 49.31 USD (+8.49% on the day), with market capitalisation 35.3 bn USD, beta 1.34, 52-week range 35.54–106.84 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.6 bn USD (+15.6% YoY), net income of -227.0 m USD, diluted EPS -0.32 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 51.5
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 42.93 – 56.93
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.46 · band width 28.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 46.79 / 51.75
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.25 / 1.11
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +10.6% | −1.1% | +11.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +36.3% | −0.5% | +36.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +12.7% | +4.4% | +8.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −39.1% | +12.3% | −51.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −52.6% | +13.5% | −66.2 pp | −0.1% |
| 3 years | +41.3% | +76.4% | −35.1 pp | +24.0% |
| 5 years | −36.8% | +63.7% | −100.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 988.2 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 218.7 m | 225.0 m | 236.0 m | 296.0 m | 315.3 m | 294.0 m | 292.0 m | 318.0 m |
| Research & development | 355.0 m | 374.0 m | 385.0 m | 399.0 m | 409.7 m | 422.0 m | 420.0 m | 435.0 m |
| Operating income | -244.1 m | -255.0 m | -322.0 m | -296.0 m | -359.3 m | -294.0 m | -229.0 m | -283.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 51.3 m | 54.0 m | 54.0 m | 55.0 m | 62.8 m | 61.0 m | 65.0 m | 67.0 m |
| Interest expense | 10.3 m | 10.0 m | 11.0 m | 10.0 m | 10.5 m | 10.0 m | 10.0 m | 11.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | -218.4 m | -215.0 m | -279.0 m | -257.0 m | -317.0 m | -247.0 m | -183.0 m | -229.0 m |
| Income tax | 2.6 m | 1.0 m | 1.0 m | 1.0 m | 593.0 k | 1.0 m | 2.0 m | 1.0 m |
| Net income | -219.6 m | -215.0 m | -278.0 m | -256.0 m | -316.1 m | -246.0 m | -183.0 m | -227.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.33 ≈ | -0.32 | -0.41 | -0.37 | -0.45 ≈ | -0.35 | -0.26 | -0.32 |
| Operating cash flow | 184.5 m | 444.0 m | 199.0 m ≈ | 546.0 m ≈ | 607.4 m | 629.0 m | 318.0 m ≈ | 395.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 63.9 m | 17.0 m | 23.0 m ≈ | 103.0 m ≈ | 298.0 m | 33.0 m | 22.0 m ≈ | 28.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | — | — | — | 0 ≈ | — | — | — | 201.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 508.4 m | 923.9 m | 1.9 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +81.7% | +107.7% | +15.9% | +25.8% | +28.7% | +35.8% |
| Net income | -71.0 m | -253.3 m | -491.7 m | -924.4 m | -1.2 bn | -935.4 m | -1.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.44 | -1.39 | -0.97 | -1.55 | -1.87 | -1.44 | -1.54 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -14.0% | -27.4% | -25.6% | -41.5% | -41.2% | -26.0% | -21.8% |
| Free cash flow | 15.9 m | 420.2 m | 565.8 m | -56.9 m | 137.5 m | 642.7 m | 1.4 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.2 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 1.0 bn USD
- Net debt
- -197.0 m USD
- Equity
- 375.0 m USD
- Total assets
- 9.6 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 2.69x
- Current ratio
- 0.96x
- ROE
- -364.7%
- ROA
- -12.7%
- FCF margin
- 27.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 923.9 m | 1.9 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 239.9 m | 496.9 m | 547.7 m | 649.1 m | 801.2 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 684.0 m ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 2.2 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | 3.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived |
| Research & development | 201.4 m | 533.2 m | 873.5 m | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -266.1 m | -495.1 m | -923.8 m | -1.3 bn | -1.1 bn | -1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 43.8 m | 75.6 m | 130.1 m | 208.1 m | 226.4 m | 225.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -222.3 m ≈ | -419.5 m ≈ | -793.7 m ≈ | -1.1 bn ≈ | -836.9 m ≈ | -1.0 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 0 | 7.0 m | 39.9 m | 40.7 m | 41.2 m | 41.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -264.3 m | -503.8 m | -930.6 m | -1.2 bn | -936.5 m | -1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -6.7 m | -320.0 k | 3.6 m | 454.0 k | 4.1 m | 3.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -253.3 m | -491.7 m | -924.4 m | -1.2 bn | -935.4 m | -1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.39 | -0.97 | -1.55 | -1.87 | -1.44 | -1.54 | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 182.1 m | 505.9 m | 595.6 m | 616.4 m | 647.5 m | 689.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 893.9 m | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 678.5 m | 711.7 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 247.0 m | 307.3 m | 379.4 m | 505.8 m | 614.8 m | 901.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.4 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 206.4 m | 271.4 m | 592.3 m | 695.4 m | 659.6 m | 885.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 59.6 m | 118.1 m | 134.3 m | 142.1 m | 141.7 m | 143.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 42.3 m | 59.7 m | 54.7 m | 53.1 m | 34.2 m | 18.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.8 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.4 bn | 6.2 bn | 7.2 bn | 9.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 12.0 m | 64.4 m | 71.2 m | 60.1 m | 42.9 m | 65.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | — | — | — | 0 | 15.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 0 | 987.7 m | 989.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 993.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.5 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.7 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.7 bn | 4.0 bn | 5.1 bn | 6.1 bn | 7.0 bn | 9.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | -232.4 m | 592.9 m | 305.0 m | 68.6 m | 209.0 m | 375.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 524.3 m | 659.1 m | 369.3 m | 458.2 m | 822.3 m | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 104.2 m | 93.3 m | 426.2 m | 320.7 m | 179.6 m | 441.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 420.2 m ≈ | 565.8 m ≈ | -56.9 m ≈ | 137.5 m ≈ | 642.7 m ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -97.0 m | -146.8 m | -441.1 m | -2.8 bn | -852.1 m | -1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 165.0 m | 1.6 bn | 43.6 m | 67.2 m | 65.9 m | 88.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 75 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 35.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet0
- Growth100
- Valuation71
- Quality72
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 37.56 – 61.44 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)37.56 – 57.67 (Mid 45.37)WACC 9.2% · starting FCFF 1.6 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 19.0%
- Peers: EV/Sales38.65 – 61.44 (Mid 48.19)10 companies used · median multiple 5.8x · quartiles 4.7x – 7.4xADBE, ADSK, CRM, INTU, NOW, PTC, SNPS, SSNC, TTWO, TWLO
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 75/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | 79.3% | 98 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | -19.8% | 10 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF margin · Quality | 26.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 30.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | 35.8% | 100 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | 6.0x | 58 (vs peers) | 19% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 4.4% | 89 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality72/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
- Valuation71/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Roblox Corporation (RBLX). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 35.8%; net margin -16.5%; ROE -478.2%.
The estimated value range is 38.10–59.55 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 46.78 USD, the price of 49.31 USD leaves a potential of -5.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -5.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 75/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Gross margin: 79.3%
- FCF margin: 26.6%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 30.0%
- Revenue growth (YoY): 35.8%
- FCF yield: 4.4%
What contradicts it
- EBIT margin: -19.8%
- Current ratio: 0.8x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Prepackaged Software (SIC 7372) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 21 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 4.8 bn and 308.3 bn (within 8× of the company's); 200 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | 246.8 bn | 1,120.4 | 1.3% | 1.1% | +21.7% | +89% / +307% |
| CRMSalesforce, Inc. | 186.9 bn | 20.7 | 19.4% | 22.0% | +9.6% | −1% / −10% |
| NOWServicenow, Inc. | 112.9 bn | 78.1 | 11.8% | 9.4% | +20.9% | −33% / −21% |
| SNOWSnowflake Inc. | 102.5 bn | — | -48.2% | -20.1% | +29.2% | +16% / +55% |
| ADBEAdobe Inc. | 96.7 bn | 13.9 | 61.9% | 28.0% | +10.5% | −22% / −59% |
| INTUIntuit Inc. | 95.3 bn | 21.7 | 23.6% | 21.3% | +13.9% | −44% / −38% |
| CDNSCadence Design Systems, Inc. | 90.4 bn | 65.5 | 22.9% | 22.5% | +14.1% | +6% / +21% |
| SNPSSynopsys Inc | 88.7 bn | 81.8 | 3.7% | 11.4% | +15.1% | +11% / −15% |
| ADSKAutodesk, Inc. | 56.4 bn | 35.0 | 53.9% | 21.1% | +17.5% | −11% / +24% |
| VEEVVeeva Systems Inc. | 50.3 bn | 50.8 | 14.4% | 29.3% | +16.3% | +29% / +78% |
| TTWOTake-Two Interactive Software, Inc. | 39.1 bn | — | -9.0% | -4.8% | +18.2% | −15% / +32% |
| RBLXRoblox Corporation | 35.3 bn | — | -478.2% | -16.5% | +35.8% | −53% / +41% |
| TWLOTwilio Inc. | 33.0 bn | 26.8 | 14.9% | 21.8% | +13.7% | +65% / +230% |
| MDBMongodb, Inc. | 26.5 bn | 449.1 | 2.0% | 2.1% | +22.8% | −1% / −21% |
| PTCPTC Inc. | 21.2 bn | 19.0 | 35.1% | 41.4% | +19.2% | +11% / +24% |
| UUnity Software Inc. | 18.7 bn | — | -18.9% | -29.0% | +2.0% | −0% / +44% |
| SSNCSs&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. | 18.7 bn | 22.9 | 12.7% | 13.2% | +6.6% | −7% / +41% |
| NTNXNutanix, Inc. | 17.2 bn | 12.3 | 37,460.2% | 52.8% | +12.4% | +33% / +48% |
| TYLTyler Technologies, Inc. | 16.8 bn | 53.3 | 10.5% | 13.5% | +9.1% | −10% / +4% |
| DOCUDocusign, Inc. | 15.0 bn | 49.1 | 17.8% | 9.8% | +8.2% | +16% / +87% |
| GWREGuidewire Software, Inc. | 14.0 bn | 104.7 | 10.5% | 9.4% | +22.7% | −21% / +71% |
| DTDynatrace, Inc. | 13.4 bn | 87.0 | 6.4% | 7.4% | +18.8% | +5% / −13% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for RBLX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Roblox (RBLX) is an immersive gaming and creation platform that reported revenue of 4,890.551 million USD in fiscal 2025 1, and in the second quarter of 2026 revenue grew 36% year-over-year to 1.5 billion USD 3. The company remains unprofitable, with a net loss attributable to common stockholders of 1,065.1 million USD in 2025 1, while bookings growth slowed to 8% in the same quarter 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The platform has a large user base and a creator community that continuously produces new content 1. Network effects through connections between friends support organic growth 1.
- The Robux revenue model generated large bookings and strong cash flow in the second quarter of 2026 3. Proprietary safety infrastructure is a point of differentiation.
- The company has expanded its creator toolset, including Build and Roblox Studio, which could lower the barrier to entry for new creators 3.
Weaknesses
- The company is not profitable and reports net losses in each year mentioned in the source 1. Operating costs keep rising, including infrastructure and stock-based compensation 1.
- Most users do not pay, and paying users are a small fraction of the audience 1. Revenue depends on a relatively narrow group of high-spending users.
- Seasonality makes quarterly results hard to predict, and the dual-class share structure limits the influence of other shareholders 1.
Opportunities
- Expansion into 2D games and toward adult users could open new market segments 3. AI creation tools could increase the number of games and creators.
- Partnerships with established studios could bring popular franchises to the platform and attract new audiences 3. The acquisition of an AI company could accelerate photorealistic game technology 3.
- Advertising in Moments and IP licensing could diversify revenue sources if adoption grows 3.
Threats
- Regulation on protecting minors could restrict access or features in some countries and raise costs 1. Fines under some laws can be very large 1.
- Litigation is costly and can affect reputation and financial results 1. Dependence on third-party operating systems and networks can change operating costs 1.
- A decline in monetization per hour of play, if engagement moves to lower-revenue games, can weigh on short-term bookings 3.
Risks
- Lack of profitabilityhigh
The company has not yet become profitable and expects to continue incurring losses, which could affect funding if revenue growth is insufficient 1.
- Regulation of minorshigh
Laws in several jurisdictions could restrict access or require platform changes, with significant penalties for non-compliance 1.
- Declining monetizationmedium
A shift of user behaviour toward lower-monetizing games reduced bookings growth in the second quarter of 2026 3.
- Dependence on creatorsmedium
The platform depends on creators producing engaging content, and if payout systems fail to motivate them, growth could slow 1.
- Security and reputationmedium
A compromise of data or user safety could seriously harm the company's reputation and operations 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If revenue keeps growing and monetization of the adult audience strengthens, the company could build a steadier and more diversified revenue base 3.
- Network effects and community-generated content could support long-term organic growth, especially if AI lowers the cost of creating games 13.
- Operating cash generation in the second quarter of 2026 shows the company's ability to fund investment without relying solely on external capital 3.
What would break the thesis
- Repeated net losses show that the cost structure has not yet adapted to current revenue, and profitability could remain distant 1.
- Slowing bookings growth and changing user behaviour could signal pressure on monetization, especially among younger users 3.
- Stricter rules on minors could limit the company's core market and raise compliance costs, with effects that are hard to anticipate 1.
What to watch
- Evolution of bookings and monetization per hour of playQ3 2026
- Impact of mandatory age checks on engagement2026
- Effect of the new recommendation algorithm on retentionQ3 2026
- Pace of partner game launches and 2D features2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
Roblox offers a platform made of a free client application, the Roblox Studio creation toolset and the Roblox Cloud infrastructure, through which users explore experiences built by the creator community 1. In 2025 an average of 127 million daily active users across more than 180 countries used the platform 1, of which about 1.8 million were daily unique paying users 1. The economic model is based on the in-game currency Robux, which creators can earn through in-experience purchases, the Creator Rewards Program, advertising or selling avatar items 1.
The network effect is the growth engine: user-generated content attracts players, more players attract more creators, and connections between friends bring new users 1. The company invests heavily in safety, with automated and human moderation and age-check systems introduced from 2026 1.
Segments
Bookings from virtual currency sales
Almost all bookings come from sales of Robux, which can be converted into virtual items through one-time purchases or subscriptions 1. Revenue is recognized over the estimated average lifetime of a paying user, so changes in the business appear in revenue with a delay 1.
Market context
Competition includes both games and gaming platforms and social networks, which compete for user time, and Roblox states it accounts for roughly 4% of global gaming revenue 3. Market share depends on audience development and monetization per hour of play.
Trends
- Age checks and child safetymixed
The mandatory age-check for chat, begun in 2026, could limit engagement and revenue but may support compliance with regulation 12. The company says safety changes have already affected engagement and bookings 2.
- Regulation of minorsheadwind
Legislation in the United Kingdom, the EU, Brazil and Australia imposes obligations on child protection, and penalties can be significant if the platform does not comply 1. This evolving regulatory environment could raise compliance costs.
- Change in the recommendation algorithmheadwind
The new Recommended For You algorithm favours games with high retention, which could reduce short-term monetization but could support long-term users 3. The effect on bookings was felt in the second quarter of 2026 3.
Competitive position
Roblox competes for players' attention and spending with other games and interactive platforms, and the supplied sources do not detail specific direct competitors. The company bases its advantage on community-generated content and network effects 1.
The advantage depends on retaining users, attracting creators and remaining safe for children, while regulation differs from one jurisdiction to another 1. The sources do not contain a full competitive analysis.
- Other console and PC game developers
Compete for users' play time; no detailed data in the supplied sources.
- Mobile gaming platforms
Compete for the younger audience and for spending on games, per the market context in source 3.
- Social networks and video platforms
Compete for attention time, particularly through short-form content and discovery, with no further detail in the sources.
- Developers of large franchise games
Are new partners of the company but could also become competitors for user attention.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- What Australian kids are teaching their parents about techPhys.org · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Cum ajung copiii, prin TikTok și Roblox, în comunități în care criminalii sunt idoli. Ce este True Crime CommunityHotNews.ro · 02 Nov 2026 · RO
- STUDIU: Românii petrec peste 4 ore pe zi pe internet / Platformele online TikTok, Roblox și Snapchat, considerate cele mai riscanteG4Media · 02 Nov 2026 · RO
- Studiu: Românii petrec peste 4 ore pe zi pe internet. Ce platforme online consideră că sunt riscanteMediafax · 02 Nov 2026 · RO
- Индексы S&P 500 и Nasdaq снизились по итогам 3-й недели подряд впервые с мартаInterfax Russia (RU) · 02 Nov 2026 · RU
- Investițiile în inteligența artificială se apropie de 1.000 de miliarde de dolari, iar acțiunile companiilor tech din SUA se prăbușescLibertatea.ro · 31 Oct 2026 · RO
- 📈 ⚡️ — Chinese and US stock markets are crashing without stopping. Shares of all…Telegram — Intel Slava Z (pro-RU OSINT EN) · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Rezumatul zilei: Prăbușirea sectorului tehnologic pe Wall Street și un atac istoric asupra Binance - XTB.comSurge — Google News · 30 Oct 2026 · RO
- Alex Velea a dezvăluit de ce nu are permis de conducere. Cine îi duce copiii la școalăLibertatea.ro · 30 Oct 2026 · RO
- Intel Plummets, Reddit Sinks | Stock MoversBloomberg Markets · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Amazon, Intel, Twilio, Reddit, Roblox & moreCNBC — Top News · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Theo Zeciu este Creatorul de Conținut al Anului la Gaming Video Awards 2026SpotMedia.ro · 29 Oct 2026 · RO
- Billionaires shatter spending record to fight California wealth taxPolitico EU · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- Norvegia pregătește restricții privind accesul copiilor sub 16 ani la rețelele sociale / Și jocurile online „care pot fi dăunătoare” sunt pe listăG4Media · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
- Norvegia pregătește restricții privind accesul copiilor sub 16 ani la rețelele sociale. Și jocurile online „care pot fi dăunătoare” sunt pe listăMediafax · 19 Oct 2026 · RO
- Norvegia interzice rețelele sociale pentru copiii sub 16 ani. Pe listă intră și TikTok, Snapchat și RobloxAntena 3 CNN · 19 Oct 2026 · RO
- AI researchers stranded Claude on a virtual desert island. It started to “play.”MIT Technology Review · 19 Oct 2026 · EN
- Более 20 тысяч полицейских направлены на охрану школ в ПольшеKommersant (RU) · 12 Oct 2026 · RU
- Polonia a mobilizat peste 20.000 de polițiști în școli, după trei atacuri cu cuțitul, în decurs de c... - BizidayBiziday.ro · 12 Oct 2026 · RO
- Polonia a mobilizat peste 20.000 de polițiști în școli, după trei atacuri cu cuțitul, în decurs de câteva zile. Anterior, poliția a efectuat verificări și a reținut mai mulți copii care aveau cuțite sau făceau amenințări.Biziday.ro · 12 Oct 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report19 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
- Current report30 Apr 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement16 Apr 2026
- Current report20 Mar 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / RBLX · 11 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / RBLX · 30 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / RBLX · 30 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.