olivLaw · US equity research
Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. RXRX
Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) · SIC 2836 · Vertical: Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) (SIC 2836)
Recursion Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage biotechnology company that uses its AI platform, the Recursion OS, to discover and develop medicines, both in-house and through partnerships with large pharmaceutical companies. The company has no approved products, and its revenue comes from partner payments, with 74.7 million dollars in total revenue in 2025, so the stakes lie in validating the platform through clinical data and milestones reached.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RXRX) stock was 3.88 USD (+5.43% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.4 bn USD, beta 2.77, 52-week range 2.84–4.96 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 18.6 m USD (+258.5% YoY), net income of -119.0 m USD, diluted EPS -0.22 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 50.1
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 3.37 – 4.38
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.50 · band width 26.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 3.77 / 3.52
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.02 / 0.04
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −18.8% | −1.1% | −17.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +22.4% | −0.5% | +22.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | +13.1% | +4.4% | +8.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −5.1% | +12.3% | −17.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −22.4% | +13.5% | −35.9 pp | +9.1% |
| 3 years | −34.3% | +76.4% | −110.8 pp | +16.5% |
| 5 years | −79.8% | +63.7% | −143.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.5 m | 14.7 m | 19.2 m | 5.2 m | 35.5 m | 6.5 m | 7.7 m | 18.6 m |
| Cost of revenue | 12.8 m | 21.8 m | 20.2 m | 14.7 m | 14.3 m | 12.5 m | 11.5 m | 10.0 m |
| Research & development | 98.3 m | 129.6 m | 128.6 m | 121.1 m | 95.9 m | 87.9 m | 89.6 m | 99.1 m |
| Operating income | -183.8 m | -191.4 m | -176.2 m | -172.2 m | -108.3 m | -128.5 m | -135.0 m | -123.2 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 13.0 m | 19.3 m | 23.8 m ≈ | 21.0 m ≈ | 19.5 m | 19.7 m | 18.2 m ≈ | 16.5 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 605.0 k | 508.0 k | 480.0 k | 833.0 k | -11.0 k | 350.0 k | 309.0 k | 266.0 k |
| Pre-tax income | -178.9 m | -202.6 m | -171.9 m | -162.3 m | -108.1 m | -122.1 m | -131.0 m | -119.0 m |
| Income tax | 7.0 k | -158.0 k | 0 | 3.0 k | 20.0 k | -4.6 m | -1.0 k | 25.0 k |
| Net income | -178.9 m | -202.5 m | -171.9 m | -162.3 m | -108.1 m | -117.5 m | -131.0 m | -119.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.53 ≈ | -0.50 | -0.41 | -0.36 | -0.21 ≈ | -0.22 | -0.25 | -0.22 |
| Operating cash flow | -115.4 m | -132.0 m | -76.4 m ≈ | -117.4 m ≈ | -46.1 m | -81.1 m | -105.9 m ≈ | -77.4 m ≈ |
| Capex | 1.3 m | 1.8 m | 3.2 m ≈ | 243.0 k ≈ | 1.2 m | 258.0 k | 44.0 k ≈ | 407.0 k ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.3 m | 4.0 m | 10.2 m | 39.8 m | 44.6 m | 58.8 m | 74.7 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +70.8% | +156.9% | +291.5% | +11.9% | +32.0% | +26.9% |
| Net income | -61.9 m | -87.0 m | -186.5 m | -239.5 m | -328.1 m | -463.7 m | -644.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -2.87 | -3.99 | -1.49 | -1.36 | -1.58 | -1.69 | -1.44 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -2,668.3% | -2,196.0% | -1,832.2% | -601.0% | -736.0% | -788.0% | -863.4% |
| Free cash flow | -61.0 m | -51.2 m | -198.4 m | -120.6 m | -299.7 m | -372.9 m | -378.3 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 743.3 m USD
- Financial debt
- 9.1 m USD
- Net debt
- -734.2 m USD
- Equity
- 1.1 bn USD
- Total assets
- 1.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.01x
- Current ratio
- 5.50x
- ROE
- -59.5%
- ROA
- -44.1%
- FCF margin
- -506.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.0 m | 10.2 m | 39.8 m | 44.6 m | 58.8 m | 74.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 0 | 0 | 48.3 m | 42.6 m | 45.2 m | 71.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 4.0 m ≈ | 10.2 m ≈ | -8.4 m ≈ | 2.0 m ≈ | 13.6 m ≈ | 3.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Research & development | 63.3 m | 135.3 m | 155.7 m | 241.2 m | 314.4 m | 475.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -84.6 m | -182.8 m | -245.7 m | -350.1 m | -479.0 m | -648.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 3.9 m | 8.4 m | 11.8 m | 24.4 m | 36.5 m | 83.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -80.7 m ≈ | -174.4 m ≈ | -234.0 m ≈ | -325.7 m ≈ | -442.5 m ≈ | -564.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 1.4 m | 3.0 m | 55.0 k | 97.0 k | 1.6 m | 1.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | — | -186.5 m | -239.5 m | -332.1 m | -464.8 m | -644.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.1 m | -1.1 m | -136.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -87.0 m | -186.5 m | -239.5 m | -328.1 m | -463.7 m | -644.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -3.99 | -1.49 | -1.36 | -1.58 | -1.69 | -1.44 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 21.8 m | 125.3 m | 175.5 m | 207.9 m | 274.2 m | 447.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 262.1 m | 285.1 m | 549.9 m | 391.6 m | 594.4 m | 743.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 156.0 k | 34.0 k | 0 | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2023verified |
| Current assets | 266.4 m | 534.7 m | 569.8 m | 438.1 m | 714.3 m | 812.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 26.0 m | 64.7 m | 88.2 m | 86.5 m | 141.1 m | 103.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 801.0 k | 801.0 k | 801.0 k | 52.1 m | 148.9 m | 162.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.7 m | 1.4 m | 1.3 m | 36.4 m | 335.9 m | 309.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 298.6 m | 610.3 m | 701.3 m | 653.7 m | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.1 m | 2.8 m | 4.6 m | 4.0 m | 21.6 m | 18.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | — | — | 41.0 k | 8.4 m | 9.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 723.0 k | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Mar 2022verified |
| Current liabilities | 23.1 m | 46.7 m | 100.3 m | 93.2 m | 187.5 m | 147.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 56.6 m | 67.4 m | 215.5 m | 190.3 m | 413.8 m | 343.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | -206.3 m † | 542.9 m † | 485.8 m † | 463.4 m † | 1.0 bn † | 1.1 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -45.4 m | -158.6 m | -83.5 m | -287.8 m | -359.2 m | -371.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 5.8 m | 39.8 m | 37.1 m | 12.0 m | 13.7 m | 6.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -51.2 m ≈ | -198.4 m ≈ | -120.6 m ≈ | -299.7 m ≈ | -372.9 m ≈ | -378.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -8.7 m | -271.7 m | 193.2 m | -10.2 m | 260.1 m | -16.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 246.1 m | 458.5 m | 154.3 m | 140.1 m | 304.1 m | 521.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.4 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -108.9% | 14 (vs peers) | 24% |
| Net margin · Quality | -697.1% | 25 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 23.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -541.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 5.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -12.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality18/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
RECURSION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (RXRX). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 74.7 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 26.9%; net margin -697.1%; ROE -48.7%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 23.3%
- Current ratio: 5.0x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -108.9%
- Net margin: -697.1%
- Interest coverage: -541.6x
- FCF yield: -12.9%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) (SIC 2836) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGNAmgen Inc. | 258.8 bn | 27.7 | 78.4% | 24.1% | +10.0% | +39% / +77% |
| GILDGilead Sciences, Inc. | 216.4 bn | — | -22.3% | -12.5% | +2.4% | +39% / +128% |
| MRNAModerna, Inc. | 103.2 bn | — | -39.0% | -141.4% | −39.9% | +895% / +233% |
| ARGXArgenx Se | 57.6 bn | 47.6 | 20.2% | — | +254.4% | +2% / +107% |
| RVMDRevolution Medicines, Inc. | 43.2 bn | — | -93.6% | -946.8% | unavailable | +157% / +756% |
| BIIBBiogen Inc. | 37.6 bn | 108.8 | 1.9% | 3.4% | +2.2% | +40% / +9% |
| EXELExelixis, Inc. | 17.8 bn | 21.7 | 44.3% | 35.5% | +7.0% | +65% / +234% |
| NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc. | 16.8 bn | 24.6 | 20.4% | 19.0% | +21.4% | +9% / +42% |
| HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc. | 14.8 bn | 38.4 | 173.7% | 24.9% | +37.6% | +83% / +238% |
| KYMRKymera Therapeutics, Inc. | 11.6 bn | — | -27.3% | -341.8% | −16.7% | +101% / +556% |
| RGENRepligen Corp | 11.4 bn | — | -0.6% | -1.5% | +16.4% | +4% / +13% |
| QGENQiagen N.V. | 11.0 bn | 26.2 | 11.6% | 20.3% | +5.7% | +6% / +20% |
| KRYSKrystal Biotech, Inc. | 9.2 bn | 42.2 | 17.5% | 47.9% | +33.9% | +43% / +198% |
| SCNIScinai Immunotherapeutics Ltd. | 6.2 bn | — | -91.9% | -633.6% | +99.2% | −96% / −99% |
| DNLIDenali Therapeutics Inc. | 3.4 bn | — | -33.9% | -1,470.5% | unavailable | +8% / +13% |
| RXRXRecursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 2.4 bn | — | -48.7% | -697.1% | +26.9% | −22% / −34% |
| BCRXBiocryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 2.1 bn | — | — | -37.4% | +94.1% | +15% / +40% |
| VIRVir Biotechnology, Inc. | 2.0 bn | — | -21.8% | -61.0% | −7.6% | +83% / +24% |
| EVAXEvaxion A | 1.2 bn | — | -100.2% | -102.4% | +125.1% | −50% / −93% |
| DNAGinkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. | 742.2 m | — | -56.3% | -260.0% | −25.1% | +26% / −77% |
| ATYRaTYR PHARMA INC | 606.2 m | — | -98.4% | -32,003.7% | −19.1% | +691% / +375% |
| ALLOAllogene Therapeutics, Inc. | 411.1 m | — | -42.4% | -3,566.7% | −100.0% | −18% / −49% |
| CCCCC4 Therapeutics, Inc. | 383.8 m | — | -48.1% | -289.4% | +1.0% | +15% / +91% |
| XFORX4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc | 330.8 m | — | -80.3% | -813.3% | +150.0% | −11% / −86% |
| IPSCCentury Therapeutics, Inc. | 302.4 m | — | -49.7% | -100.6% | +1,556.8% | +206% / +22% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for RXRX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 15 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (02 Nov 2026).
In brief
Recursion Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage biotechnology company that uses its AI platform, the Recursion OS, to discover and develop medicines, both in-house and through partnerships with large pharmaceutical companies. The company has no approved products, and its revenue comes from partner payments, with 74.7 million dollars in total revenue in 2025 1, so the stakes lie in validating the platform through clinical data and milestones reached.
SWOT
Strengths
- The integrated AI platform covers the entire discovery and development chain, from biology to clinical studies 1.
- Collaborations with large pharmaceutical companies bring payments and external validation of the technology 23.
- The company has obtained first positive clinical data for an AI-based discovery platform, in FAP 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- New candidates from collaborations, such as the one optioned by Sanofi, could generate additional payments 3.
- Extending the platform to new therapies could open further partnerships.
Threats
- A clinical failure of a major program could reduce confidence in the platform and in partnerships.
- Financing difficulties or shareholder dilution could limit program development.
- Partners' decisions to delay or stop programs could reduce expected revenue 3.
Risks
- No approved productshigh
The company has no medicines approved for sale and cannot guarantee it will obtain them, which makes its prospects hard to evaluate 1.
- Continuing operating losseshigh
The company has reported losses every year since inception and expects continued losses, without being able to predict when it will become profitable 1.
- Need for additional capitalhigh
The company will need additional funding; if it cannot raise it in time, it could reduce or stop programs 1.
- Dependence on partnersmedium
Payments and milestones depend on partners' decisions, which can delay or stop joint programs 3.
- Shareholder dilutionmedium
New share issuances for financing can reduce existing shareholders' stakes and may affect the share price 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The AI platform has produced positive clinical data in FAP and could lead to a registration path for the medicine if results are maintained 12.
- Collaborations with large companies bring payments and can validate the technology at industrial scale 23.
- If new candidates reach clinical phases, the company could diversify risk across several programs.
What to watch
- Go/no-go decision on starting phase 1 for REC-7735 and REC-1022H26
- Entry of the Sanofi-optioned candidate into phase 1 and other collaboration milestones2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 15 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (02 Nov 2026).
The business
Recursion presents itself as a clinical-stage TechBio company whose goal is to decode biology to radically improve lives for patients 1. Its activity rests on the Recursion Operating System, an integrated platform covering biological discovery, molecule design and clinical development 1. The company says the platform lets it synthesize considerably fewer compounds than the industry average, which could speed up discovery if these results hold 1.
Segments
Pharmaceutical partnerships
Recursion has collaborations with Roche and Genentech, Sanofi, Bayer and Merck KGaA, under which it has received upfront and milestone payments 12. The Sanofi collaboration produced an option in October 2026 on a development candidate for immunology, which is expected to enter phase 1 in 2027 3. The Roche and Genentech collaboration includes payments for biological maps built by the company 2.
Market context
Recursion operates in drug discovery, where the company notes that fewer than 4% of drug discovery programs initiated result in an approved medicine 1. Its focus is mainly oncology and rare diseases, such as FAP, where the total addressable market is estimated above 10 billion dollars 2. The real commercial potential, however, depends on clinical success, which remains uncertain.
Recursion operates in pharmaceutical drug discovery, where the company notes that fewer than 4% of drug discovery programs initiated result in an approved medicine 1. Its focus is mainly oncology and rare diseases, such as FAP, where the total addressable market is estimated above 10 billion dollars 2. The real commercial potential, however, depends on clinical success, which remains uncertain.
Trends
- Artificial intelligence in drug discoverytailwind
Pharmaceutical companies increasingly use AI in discovery and development, which could raise interest in platforms such as Recursion OS 1. The company notes, however, that the extent and timing of benefits remain subject to validation 1.
- Emphasis on clinical validationmixed
The industry increasingly demands clinical evidence for AI platforms, and the FAP results are the first data of this kind reported by the company 1. If these results do not hold, investor and partner confidence could decline.
- Need for additional fundingheadwind
The company expects it will need additional capital for development and commercialization, which exposes it to conditions in financial markets 1. If financing becomes more expensive, programs could be slowed.
- Partnerships with large pharmaceutical companiesmixed
Collaborations with large companies bring payments and external validation, but they depend on partners' decisions to continue programs 3. A partner's decision to delay or stop a program could reduce expected revenue.
Competitive position
Recursion competes with other companies building AI platforms for drug discovery and with pharmaceutical firms building their own internal capabilities 1. The company argues its differentiator is end-to-end integration, from biology to patient, within one system 1. Competition at the therapy level, especially in FAP, is limited because no approved medicines exist, but competing programs could change this context.
Recursion competes with other companies building AI platforms for drug discovery and with pharmaceutical firms building their own internal capabilities 1. The company argues its differentiator is complete integration, from biology to patient, in one system 1. Competition at the therapy level, especially in FAP, is limited because no approved medicines exist, but competing programs could change this context.
- Sanofi
Partner in the small-molecule collaboration in immunology and oncology, which may also compete in drug development.
- Roche and Genentech
Partner in neuroscience and gastrointestinal oncology, which also runs its own discovery programs.
- Bayer
Partner in precision oncology programs, which could develop its own alternatives.
- Merck KGaA
Partner in identifying targets in oncology and immunology, active in the same discovery field.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Constructing a Quine from Kleene's Second Recursion TheoremHacker News · 31 Oct 2026 · EN
- Recursion into MadnessHacker News · 07 Sept 2026 · EN
- Price recursion is the rational theory of rewardLessWrong · 18 Aug 2026 · EN
- Recursion Is Lying to YouHacker News · 28 Jul 2026 · EN
- Conquering Recursion (2019)Hacker News · 11 Jun 2026 · EN
- How Other Link Checkers Do RecursionHacker News · 03 Jun 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 31 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 02 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report02 Nov 2026
- Current report02 Nov 2026Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 Oct 2026Material agreement · Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Sept 2026Material agreement
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement30 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · 15 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.