olivLaw · US equity research
Alpha Technology Group Ltd ATGL
Services-Computer Programming Services · SIC 7371 · Vertical: Services-Computer Programming Services (SIC 7371)
Alpha Technology Group Ltd (ATGL) is a Hong Kong-based group providing cloud-based IT services, including customised CRM and ERP systems, web and mobile applications and AI-OCR services. The company's revenue fell 40.13% in fiscal 2025, so its trajectory is worth watching given fragile technology demand in the region.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Alpha Technology Group Ltd (ATGL) stock was 9.60 USD (+6.08% on the day), with market capitalisation 146.5 m USD, beta 0.58, 52-week range 4.40–30.61 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 62.2
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.40 – 12.83
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.69 · band width 137.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 6.50 / 12.79
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.22 / 1.02
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +100.0% | −1.1% | +101.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | +29.7% | −0.5% | +30.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −40.4% | +4.4% | −44.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −54.1% | +12.3% | −66.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | −45.1% | +13.5% | −58.7 pp | −39.9% |
| 3 years | +63.0% | +76.4% | −13.4 pp | −43.3% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.1 m | 1.6 m | 950.5 k |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +43.3% | −40.2% |
| Net income | -872.3 k | -706.3 k | -9.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.75 | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -78.6% | -44.4% | -952.0% |
| Free cash flow | 542.5 k | -2.5 m | -1.8 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025
- Cash
- 4.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 39.2 k USD
- Net debt
- -3.9 m USD
- Equity
- 3.2 m USD
- Total assets
- 4.5 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.01x
- Current ratio
- 3.33x
- ROE
- -184.7%
- ROA
- -148.6%
- FCF margin
- -188.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.1 m | 1.6 m | 950.5 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 746.2 k | 759.0 k | 483.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 363.4 k | 831.2 k | 467.6 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| SG&A | 900.7 k | 1.5 m | 2.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Operating income | -840.4 k | -804.9 k | -7.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | — | 2.0 k | 11.1 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| EBITDA | — | -803.0 k ≈ | -7.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 9.5 k | 13.1 k | 146.8 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -840.1 k | -706.3 k | -9.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Income tax | 32.2 k | — | -136.5 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Net income | -872.3 k | -706.3 k | -9.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.75 | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jan 2024verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 1.2 m | 14.9 m | 16.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 467.1 k | 5.4 m | 4.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Receivables | 31.6 k | 164.0 k | 138.2 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Current assets | 3.3 m | 5.6 m | 4.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 7.0 k | 9.5 k | 99.4 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.3 m | 1.3 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 588.1 k | 526.9 k | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2025verified |
| Total assets | 5.2 m | 7.7 m | 4.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | — | 46.7 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 71.8 k | 76.5 k | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 116.4 k | 39.3 k | 39.2 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.6 m | 882.7 k | 1.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.7 m | 1.1 m | 1.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.5 m † | 6.6 m † | 3.2 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 13.3 m | 15.3 m | 15.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 548.7 k | -2.5 m | -1.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Capex | 6.2 k | 4.4 k | 100.9 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 542.5 k ≈ | -2.5 m ≈ | -1.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.3 m | -10.7 k | -100.9 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 869.7 k | 7.4 m | 393.8 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 15 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 146.5 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
- Quality13
- Growth10
- Valuation0
- Balance sheet100
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.28 – 0.33 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/Sales0.28 – 0.33 (Mid 0.29)9 companies used · median multiple 0.6x · quartiles 0.4x – 1.1xCINT, CTSH, DOX, EPAM, FORTY, MWC, RDNW, WIT, XTIA
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 15/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | 49.2% | 23 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | -770.5% | 13 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF margin · Quality | -188.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | -40.2% | 10 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | 150.0x | 0 (vs peers) | 24% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -1.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Growth· partial10/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality13/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
- Valuation0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Alpha Technology Group Ltd (ATGL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 950.5 k USD in 2025; YoY growth -40.2%; net margin -952.0%; ROE -184.7%.
The estimated value range is 0.28–0.33 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.29 USD, the price of 9.60 USD leaves a potential of -96.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -3,171.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 15/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance, growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 3.3x
What contradicts it
- Gross margin: 49.2%
- EBIT margin: -770.5%
- FCF margin: -188.5%
- Revenue growth (YoY): -40.2%
- EV/Sales: 150.0x
- FCF yield: -1.2%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Computer Programming Services (SIC 7371) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 32 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFYInfosys Limited | 49.6 bn | 16.1 | 29.0% | 16.4% | +3.9% | −30% / −30% |
| ZSZscaler Inc | 36.6 bn | — | -2.9% | -1.9% | +25.4% | −11% / +14% |
| CTSHCognizant Technology Solutions Corporation | 29.4 bn | 12.0 | 17.4% | 11.8% | +7.0% | −15% / −7% |
| VRSNVerisign Inc | 28.5 bn | 33.6 | — | 49.1% | +6.4% | +26% / +50% |
| WITWipro Limited | 22.7 bn | 15.4 | 16.4% | 14.7% | −3.2% | −21% / −11% |
| EPAMEpam Systems, Inc. | 7.1 bn | 18.6 | 11.2% | 7.2% | +15.4% | −27% / −47% |
| DOCSDoximity, Inc. | 6.2 bn | 40.9 | 17.2% | 25.5% | +13.1% | −33% / +49% |
| DOXAmdocs Limited | 4.9 bn | 10.3 | 14.1% | 9.9% | +2.4% | −43% / −48% |
| RGTIRigetti Computing, Inc. | 3.7 bn | — | -43.8% | -1,787.4% | −34.3% | −56% / +958% |
| FORTYFormula Systems (1985) Ltd. | 1.8 bn | 23.4 | 12.2% | 2.9% | +5.2% | −20% / +96% |
| MGRTMega Fortune Co Ltd | 1.6 bn | 698.9 | 21.1% | 16.1% | +233.3% | +1,864% / unavailable |
| PERIPerion Network Ltd. | 446.8 m | — | -1.1% | -1.8% | −11.7% | +12% / −59% |
| MFImF International Limited | 367.8 m | 36.4 | 3.9% | 232.8% | +29.4% | −68% / unavailable |
| IAInnovative Solutions And Support, Inc. | 353.7 m | 18.8 | 28.5% | 20.5% | +78.6% | +103% / +167% |
| GDEVGDEV Inc. | 176.1 m | 2.6 | — | 17.1% | −3.9% | −44% / −57% |
| ATGLAlpha Technology Group Ltd | 146.5 m | — | -184.7% | -952.0% | −40.2% | −45% / +63% |
| MLGOMicroAlgo Inc. | 135.7 m | 1.2 | 7.6% | 30.2% | −20.3% | −61% / −100% |
| MWCMicware Co., Ltd. | 82.0 m | 8.1 | 20.0% | 7.3% | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| PDCPerpetuals.com Ltd | 74.9 m | — | -75.8% | -1,069.9% | −47.0% | −61% / −13% |
| CINTCI&T Inc | 73.8 m | 10.3 | 13.8% | 8.3% | +11.5% | −31% / −40% |
| CYCUCycurion, Inc. | 65.1 m | — | -76.7% | -98.0% | −14.8% | −91% / unavailable |
| XTIAXti Aerospace, Inc. | 37.7 m | — | — | -89.6% | +602.4% | −40% / −100% |
| MNDOMind Cti Ltd | 18.3 m | 6.9 | 11.0% | 13.4% | −9.3% | −24% / −53% |
| CHGAChange Agents Corporation | 17.8 m | — | -606.9% | -643.1% | +6.2% | −97% / −99% |
| RDNWRideNow Group, Inc. | 11.7 m | — | — | -0.8% | −10.5% | +7% / −9% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ATGL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jan 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (30 Sept 2026), 6-K (25 Jun 2026), 6-K (16 Jun 2026), 6-K (24 Apr 2026), 6-K (04 Mar 2026).
In brief
Alpha Technology Group Ltd (ATGL) is a Hong Kong-based group providing cloud-based IT services, including customised CRM and ERP systems, web and mobile applications and AI-OCR services. The company's revenue fell 40.13% in fiscal 2025 1, so its trajectory is worth watching given fragile technology demand in the region.
SWOT
Strengths
- Diversified cloud-based IT service portfolio combined with proprietary AI capabilities.
- Established relationships with customers across varied sectors, from consulting to carpark management.
- Automated AI-OCR services generally carry higher gross margins than the company's other service lines.
Weaknesses
- Revenue fell sharply in fiscal 2025 and the net loss was driven largely by share compensation.
- The company depends on a limited number of major customers and a few key suppliers.
- Operations are concentrated in one market, Hong Kong, increasing exposure to local economic swings.
Opportunities
- Extending AI-OCR services into the financial and insurance sector and later into Southeast Asian markets.
- Continuing demand created by Hong Kong government digitalisation programmes.
- The AI research lab could shorten the time needed to build dedicated AI models for clients.
Threats
- A slowdown in the economy or in customers' technology spending could reduce revenue further.
- Pricing pressure from competitors could compress profit margins.
- Regulatory changes in Hong Kong and mainland China could affect operations and the value of the shares.
Risks
- Customer concentrationhigh
Reliance on a few major customers could significantly hit revenue if one of them reduces or ends its engagement 1.
- Receivables credit riskmedium
The company is exposed to credit risk when collecting receivables from customers 1.
- Regulatory risk in China and Hong Konghigh
Rapid changes in PRC laws could affect operations and the value of the shares 1.
- Dual-class share structuremedium
The structure with shares carrying different voting rights limits minority shareholders' influence over decisions 1.
- Cybersecuritymedium
Security incidents could harm the company's reputation and expose client data 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- AI-OCR services, with better margins and lower staffing needs, could become a more important growth driver.
- Expansion into new sectors and markets could reduce dependence on the current customer base.
What would break the thesis
- If pricing pressure persists, gross margins could keep declining.
- Share compensation may continue to dominate the net result and obscure operating performance.
- Dependence on a few major customers could turn the loss of one contract into a significant revenue shock.
What to watch
- Revenue and gross margin trend as customer spending resumesNext annual report
- Level of share compensation and its effect on the net loss2026
- Progress in extending AI-OCR services into the financial sector2026
- Hong Kong regulatory developments that could affect operationsNext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jan 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (30 Sept 2026), 6-K (25 Jun 2026), 6-K (16 Jun 2026), 6-K (24 Apr 2026), 6-K (04 Mar 2026).
The business
Alpha is a holding company incorporated in the British Virgin Islands that has no material operations of its own and conducts its business through operating subsidiaries Techlution and NSL in Hong Kong 1. These provide cloud-based IT solutions combining analytic, programming and artificial intelligence skills to optimise customers' business performance. The company's ordinary shares began trading on the Nasdaq Capital Market in October 2023 under the symbol ATGL 1.
In fiscal 2025 revenue was HK$7,396,068, approximately US$950,541 1. The revenue mix covers system development, hardware installation, web and mobile application development, AI-OCR services, technological support and other services, all generated in Hong Kong 1.
Segments
AI-OCR services
The AI-based optical character recognition service extracts data from invoices, receipts and identification documents. The company says this line tends to earn higher gross margins than its other services, although its revenue was reduced in fiscal 2025 1.
Web, mobile and technical support
These services include building applications for clients in logistics, consulting and carpark management, along with maintenance of existing systems. The company also began generating hardware installation revenue in fiscal 2025, a new line for it 1.
Market context
According to the company, markets for system development, applications and AI-OCR services have grown gradually in recent years, supported by digitalisation in Hong Kong and government technology programmes 1. However, economic uncertainty and pricing pressure from industry peers could slow customers' technology spending 1.
The local market is small and spread across customers in varied sectors, which offers diversification but also exposure to each client's budget cycle. The company noted that some customers postponed purchasing decisions in the first half of fiscal 2025 1.
Trends
- Government digitalisationtailwind
The Government Cloud Infrastructure Services platform in Hong Kong supports demand for IT and application development services. The company believes there will be continuing demand for such solutions 1.
- Adoption of artificial intelligencetailwind
Growing interest in AI automation could create demand for AI-OCR services, which need less staff involvement 1.
- Economic uncertaintyheadwind
A slowdown in Hong Kong's economy could reduce customers' technology budgets, which already appeared in fiscal 2025 1.
- Price competitionmixed
Competition from industry peers has put pressure on prices, and the company has shifted its service mix to stay competitive 1.
Competitive position
The company describes competition as intense, with many IT service providers of varying size in Hong Kong 1. Pricing pressure from industry peers contributed to the revenue decline in fiscal 2025 1.
Stated strengths include the combination of cloud and AI services and relationships with clients across several sectors. However, the company's small size and reliance on a limited number of major customers could leave it exposed to larger competitors 1.
- Local Hong Kong IT service providers
Companies in the same region offering system and application development, cited in the context of pricing pressure 1.
- Other CRM and ERP solution providers
Providers competing for the same customised cloud systems among corporate clients 1.
- Document OCR and AI providers
Firms offering AI-driven document recognition that compete with the AI-OCR service 1.
- Smart parking solution integrators
Providers the company competes with in hardware installations and parking solutions 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)25 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)24 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)04 Mar 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)30 Jan 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)19 Dec 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Sept 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Mar 2025
- Annual report (foreign issuer)27 Jan 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / Alpha Technology Group Ltd · 30 Jan 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.