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olivLaw · US equity research

Bakkt, Inc. BKKT

Finance Services · SIC 6199 · Vertical: Finance Services (SIC 6199)

4.77USD+2.14% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Bakkt builds digital financial infrastructure so institutions can take part in the digital asset economy, through three lines of activity: Bakkt Markets, Bakkt Agent and Bakkt Global. The company went through a transformation during 2025, and in the first half of 2026 its transacting volume reached 410.0 million USD, amid growing stablecoin adoption and new US regulation. However, revenue figures show a sharp decline from the prior year, so the trajectory depends on client activation.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Bakkt, Inc. (BKKT) stock was 4.77 USD (+2.14% on the day), with market capitalisation 215.0 m USD, beta 3.59, 52-week range 4.40–23.86 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): net income of 80.8 m USD, diluted EPS 1.94 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
215.0 m USD
shares as of 05 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -3.51 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-73.65%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
3.59
Volatility (1y) 107%
52-week range
4.4023.86

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
33.0
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
3.99 – 7.04
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.26 · band width 55.3%
SMA 50 / 200
7.05 / 8.73
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.73 / -0.72
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−37.0%−1.1%−35.9 pp—
3 months−35.5%−0.5%−35.0 pp—
6 months−47.8%+4.4%−52.2 pp—
Year to date−52.5%+12.3%−64.8 pp—
1 year−77.9%+13.5%−91.4 pp−50.9%
3 years−80.3%+76.4%−156.7 pp−63.8%
5 years−99.4%+63.7%−163.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−81.6%
05 Nov 2025 → 02 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−99.4%
08 Nov 2021 → 02 Nov 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−64.2%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
unavailable USD
unavailable YoY
Net income
80.8 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
1.94
unavailable YoY
net / operating
unavailable / unavailable

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue328.4 m1.7 bn1.1 bn577.9 m————
Operating income-25.1 m-10.0 m-15.4 m-16.1 m-25.3 m-91.0 m-16.9 m-19.6 m
Depreciation & amortisation107.0 k62.0 k220.0 k154.0 k153.0 k80.0 k66.0 k1.1 m
Pre-tax income-3.9 m-39.7 m19.4 m-26.8 m-21.6 m-68.4 m-11.4 m81.1 m
Income tax-113.0 k-9.0 k49.0 k76.0 k-25.0 k-150.0 k12.0 k5.0 k
Net income-2.9 m-19.2 m7.7 m-14.7 m-14.9 m-85.3 m-11.7 m80.8 m
Diluted EPS-0.45-2.96 ≈1.13-2.16-1.15-3.89 ≈-0.411.94
Operating cash flow-25.1 m ≈31.4 m-101.3 m5.4 m ≈-46.7 m ≈-10.8 m-12.1 m-14.8 m ≈
Capex545.0 k ≈308.0 k130.0 k19.0 k ≈————
Share repurchases112.0 k ≈260.0 k906.0 k806.0 k ≈1.7 m ≈—280.0 k49.0 k ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20202022⚠ 202320242025
Revenue28.5 m56.2 m727.0 m3.4 bn2.3 bn
Revenue YoYunavailableunavailable—+373.3%−32.1%
Net income-79.6 m-578.1 m-74.9 m-46.7 m-107.2 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailable—unavailableunavailable
Diluted EPSunavailable-203.08-21.01-7.97-8.87
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailable—unavailableunavailable
net %-279.4%-1,028.2%-10.3%-1.4%-4.6%
Free cash flow-51.5 m-148.1 m-70.1 m-24.3 munavailable

The series breaks before 2023: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
27.0 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
112.8 m USD
Total assets
162.8 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
2.19x
ROE
-122.1%
ROA
-49.6%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
727.0 m
2024
3.4 bn
2025
2.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-156.2 m
2024
-82.6 m
2025
-147.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
13.9 m
2024
343.0 k
2025
607.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-142.3 m ≈
2024
-82.2 m ≈
2025
-147.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2023
-153.3 m
2024
-94.3 m
2025
-97.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
355.0 k
2024
110.0 k
2025
-49.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-74.9 m
2024
-46.7 m
2025
-107.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-21.01
2024
-7.97
2025
-8.87

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
3.6 m
2024
5.9 m
2025
12.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
52.9 m
2024
39.0 m
2025
27.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
29.7 m
2024
7.7 m
2025
12.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
181.1 m
2024
183.8 m
2025
72.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
60.0 k
2024
2.1 m
2025
1.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
68.0 m
2024
68.0 m
2025
64.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
2.9 m
2024
2.9 m
2025
5.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
265.3 m
2024
269.4 m
2025
162.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
14.9 m
2024
3.1 m
2025
3.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2021verified

Current liabilities
2023
100.5 m
2024
137.7 m
2025
33.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
129.6 m
2024
206.5 m
2025
50.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
135.7 m
2024
62.9 m
2025
112.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-60.7 m
2024
-21.2 m
2025
-153.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
9.4 m
2024
3.1 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2025verified

Free cash flow
2023
-70.1 m ≈
2024
-24.3 m ≈
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2025derived

Investing cash flow
2023
66.0 m
2024
14.1 m
2025
-38.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-2.6 m
2024
43.8 m
2025
82.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
2.6 m
2024
2.7 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-32.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
246.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
141.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
-6.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBIT margin
-6.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net margin
-1.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF margin
-3.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Returns

ROE
-15.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-10.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
-41.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
3.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-84.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
1.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2025
Free cash flow
-85.4 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
3 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
215.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-73.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
0.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-39.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
1.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 5 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

4.77 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 215.0 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
215.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-15.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-1.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
-32.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

27/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 05 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 10 Aug 2026
verified 744derived 45

Score by group

33% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Finance Services (SIC 6199)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-1.3%63 (vs peers)19%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth246.3%100 (on a fixed band)25%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet3.1x100 (on a fixed band)13%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-39.7%0 (on a fixed band)25%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns1.7%24 (on a fixed band)19%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial63/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial24/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Bakkt, Inc. (BKKT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -32.1%; net margin -1.3%; ROE -15.9%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 246.3%
  • Current ratio: 3.1x

What contradicts it

  • FCF yield: -39.7%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.7%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Finance Services (SIC 6199) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 12.8x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
0.1x
vertical median 3.3x
below median (−97.2%)
P/B
0.6x
vertical median 1.1x
below median (−46.1%)
ROE
-15.9%
vertical median -16.4%
at median
Net margin
-1.3%
vertical median -81.1%
above median
EBIT margin
-6.5%
vertical median -162.1%
above median
Revenue YoY
-32.1%
vertical median 12.2%
below median (−363.9%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median -0.4x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.8%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
AXPAmerican Express Co223.0 bn18.735.9%27.9%+6.4%−9% / +95%
COINCoinbase Global, Inc.40.1 bn—-4.7%-12.5%+9.4%−44% / +21%
SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc.22.4 bn36.37.1%104.3%+23.1%−42% / +138%
KLARKlarna Group plc5.2 bn—-11.9%-7.8%+24.8%−56% / unavailable
GPGIGPGI, Inc.3.7 bn—-20.6%—−85.8%−36% / +208%
BLSHBullish3.5 bn—-27.3%-0.3%−2.2%−47% / unavailable
CIFRCipher Digital Inc.3.0 bn—-156.8%-742.3%+48.0%−68% / +135%
MARAMara Holdings, Inc.2.7 bn—-107.2%-430.2%+38.2%−42% / −43%
WLTHWealthfront Corporation1.7 bn—-20.5%-19.4%+18.2%unavailable / unavailable
WDWalker & Dunlop, Inc.1.3 bn34.42.2%3.0%+9.0%−41% / −54%
KEELKeel Infrastructure Corp.1.3 bn—-87.6%-230.6%+72.0%−40% / +47%
XYFX Financial1.2 bn5.920.2%19.2%+35.8%−28% / +15%
CDChaince Digital Holdings Inc.741.4 m—-12.3%-182.5%+277.9%−30% / +622%
GDOTGreen Dot Corp727.1 m—-2.8%-1.1%+20.7%+2% / +59%
JFU9F Inc.536.7 m23.24.7%125.2%+12.2%−52% / −43%
CANGCango Inc.272.7 m—-130.8%-90.4%+524.3%−92% / −76%
BKKTBakkt, Inc.215.0 m—-15.9%-1.3%−32.1%−78% / −80%
ZSQRZ Squared Inc.192.4 m—-25.9%-642.0%unavailable−81% / −84%
DEFTDefi Technologies Inc.152.4 m2.374.0%62.9%+215.5%−74% / unavailable
HSDTSolana Company127.0 m—-183.2%-1,302.8%+1,057.1%−49% / −100%
GHIGreystone Housing Impact Investors LP111.0 m——-5.1%−6.4%−33% / −72%
AGPUAxe Compute Inc86.2 m—-1,565.2%-7,769.8%+47.7%+24% / −85%
YRDYiren Digital Ltd.68.9 m8.80.6%1.0%−85.9%−91% / −86%
BTCSBTCS Inc.54.6 m—-354.8%-746.3%+304.8%−67% / +6%
ZSTKZeroStack Corp.47.4 m—-1,993.6%-444.2%−0.5%−67% / −94%

1- and 3-year price returns: for BKKT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Bakkt builds digital financial infrastructure so institutions can take part in the digital asset economy, through three lines of activity: Bakkt Markets, Bakkt Agent and Bakkt Global. The company went through a transformation during 2025, and in the first half of 2026 its transacting volume reached 410.0 million USD, amid growing stablecoin adoption and new US regulation. However, revenue figures show a sharp decline from the prior year, so the trajectory depends on client activation.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The company holds money transmitter licenses in several states and a New York BitLicense, a compliance framework that is hard to replicate quickly.
    • Bakkt has eliminated long-term debt, which gives it financial flexibility for commercial investments.
    • The platform is modular, so clients can activate only the capabilities they need without rebuilding the infrastructure.

    Weaknesses

    • Revenue fell significantly in 2026, and the company has a history of operating losses.
    • The company depends on digital asset trading volumes, which are volatile and hard to forecast.
    • Second-quarter net income was influenced by non-cash gains from warrant fair value changes, which makes underlying profitability harder to read.

    Opportunities

    • Bank and institutional adoption of stablecoins could open new clients for payments and on- and off-ramps.
    • If Bakkt Agent launches succeed, the company could extend into banking-style products and cards for partner clients.
    • International investments could provide access to licences and local distribution in Japan and India.

    Threats

    • Changes in digital asset regulation could affect the business model or require rapid adaptation.
    • Competition from established custody and payment providers could limit the company's ability to win new clients.
    • Cybersecurity incidents and loss of private keys could cause financial and reputational harm.

    Risks

    • Losses and falling revenuehigh

      The company has reported net losses and sharp revenue declines from the prior year, which makes future results hard to forecast.

    • Dependence on digital asset volumeshigh

      Revenue depends on digital asset transactions, which could fall sharply if the market cools or prices move.

    • Regulatory uncertaintymedium

      The legal framework for digital assets is changing quickly, and licences could be suspended or could require extra conditions.

    • Investment and integration effectsmedium

      Acquisitions and strategic investments may not deliver the expected benefits, and integration could divert management attention.

    • Shareholder dilutionmedium

      Share issuances, including direct offerings and at-the-market programmes, could reduce the ownership stake of existing shareholders.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If stablecoin adoption continues and clients activate Bakkt Markets and Agent products, transacting volume could grow meaningfully from current levels.
    • A balance sheet without long-term debt and existing licences could give the company room to invest in new products.
    • Global investments such as the Indian warrants could add value if approvals and execution follow the plan.

    What would break the thesis

    • If revenue keeps falling and digital asset volumes stay weak, the company could struggle to reach profitability.
    • Accounting gains from warrant revaluation do not reflect operating performance, and a negative revaluation could change reported results.
    • Planned launches in the Agent and card areas could be delayed by partner or regulatory requirements.

    What to watch

    • Achievement of the expected transacting volume for 20262026
    • Launch of co-branded cards and the Neobank-as-a-Service offeringQ4 2026
    • Quarterly revenue and adjusted EBITDA loss trendQ3 2026
    • Exercise of the Transchem warrants and changes in their fair valuenext 10-Q

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Bakkt, Inc. presents itself as a regulated fintech company that builds and operates infrastructure for digital asset trading, programmable payments and cross-border payments. Its main operations run through Bakkt Financial Solutions I, LLC, which holds money transmitter licenses in US states and a New York BitLicense. According to the Form 10-K, in 2025 the company sold its loyalty business and focused on a pure-play digital asset infrastructure platform.

    Segments

    Bakkt Markets

    Bakkt Markets gives financial institutions and fintech firms access to trading, stablecoin on- and off-ramps, custody and payment infrastructure. According to the Q2 2026 release, the six live commercial offerings in this line cover trading, OTC, stablecoin ramps, cross-border payments and the Bakkt Widget. Revenue is mainly tied to digital asset transactions and is sensitive to trading volumes.

    Bakkt Agent

    Bakkt Agent is the AI-driven financial services layer that lets clients embed onboarding, accounts, payments and international transfers into their own products. According to the August 2026 release, the Embedded Finance component is available for partner integration, while co-branded cards and the Neobank-as-a-Service offering are targeted for Q4 2026, subject to partner and regulatory requirements.

    Bakkt Global

    Bakkt Global extends the business outside the US through strategic investments in locally regulated entities. Current positions include the stake in Bitcoin Japan Corporation, accounted for under the equity method, and a warrant position in Transchem Limited in India. The fair value of the warrants is reported separately, and its development depends on market prices and local approvals.

    Market context

    The market Bakkt operates in shifted during 2025 from a speculative retail market to institutional infrastructure, and stablecoins grew quickly. According to the Form 10-K, the GENIUS Act of July 2025 created a federal framework for payment stablecoins, and adjusted stablecoin payment volume grew 733% year over year. This is relevant for Bakkt, but its activity remains sensitive to volatility in the crypto market.

    Trends

    • Regulatory clarity for stablecoinstailwind

      The federal framework introduced in 2025 gives banks a clear path to integrate stablecoins into payment infrastructure. This could support demand for Bakkt Markets and Bakkt Agent products if institutions accelerate adoption.

    • Growing stablecoin adoptiontailwind

      Stablecoin payment volumes have grown very fast, and corporate treasuries are moving more cash into yield-bearing assets. If this trend continues, Bakkt's ramps and cross-border payments could generate larger volumes.

    • Digital asset volatility and lower volumesheadwind

      Quarterly revenue fell sharply from the prior year, partly because of weaker digital asset trading volumes. If volatility persists, trading revenue could stay under pressure.

    • Shift from gross revenue to payment fees and spreadsmixed

      With payment flows from the acquired infrastructure, part of the activity is based on fees and spreads, not notional value. This change could stabilise revenue, but it depends on client adoption.

    Competitive position

    Bakkt competes with custody providers, digital asset trading platforms and stablecoin payment providers. According to the Form 10-K, the company faces intense competition worldwide, and many incumbent providers already handle most of the assets Bakkt integrates. Differentiation depends on regulation, integration and how fast clients can be activated.

    • CoinbaseCOIN

      Digital asset trading and custody platform competing with Bakkt's trading and custody services.

    • PayPalPYPL

      Digital payments provider cited in the source as a comparison point for stablecoin payment volumes.

    • Bank custody providers

      Large banks are expanding custody offerings, creating competition for Bakkt's infrastructure.

    • Cross-border payment providers

      International payment firms offering settlement and currency conversion compete with Bakkt's cross-border payments.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Bakkt, Inc. · 19 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Bakkt, Inc. · 10 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Bakkt, Inc. · 10 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.