olivLaw · US equity research
Klarna Group plc KLAR
Finance Services · SIC 6199 · Vertical: Finance Services (SIC 6199)
Klarna Group plc is a digital bank and flexible payments provider that connects consumers and merchants through a global commerce network. The company is growing its financing products quickly, and in fiscal 2025 revenue reached 3509 million USD while the net loss remained a key concern for investors.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Klarna Group plc (KLAR) stock was 13.89 USD (+5.07% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.2 bn USD, beta 2.42, 52-week range 12.27–37.65 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 56.8
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 12.55 – 14.03
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.91 · band width 11.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 13.51 / 16.20
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.07 / -0.19
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +6.1% | −1.1% | +7.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −31.8% | −0.5% | −31.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −2.8% | +4.4% | −7.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −52.0% | +12.3% | −64.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −62.4% | +13.5% | −75.9 pp | −47.5% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | −48.3% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.3 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +23.5% | +24.8% |
| Net income | -244.0 m | 21.0 m | -273.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −1,400.0% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.69 | 0.01 | -0.79 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −8,000.0% |
| net % | -10.7% | 0.7% | -7.8% |
| Free cash flow | 807.0 m | 586.0 m | -1.0 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 3.8 bn USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 2.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 18.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- -11.1%
- ROA
- -1.7%
- FCF margin
- -29.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.3 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -323.0 m | -121.0 m | -230.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -304.0 m | 33.0 m | -241.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -60.0 m | 12.0 m | 32.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -244.0 m | 21.0 m | -273.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.69 | 0.01 | -0.79 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 362.1 m | 364.4 m | 370.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2.4 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | 613.0 m | 685.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 376.0 m | 383.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 13.8 bn | 18.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 11.5 bn | 16.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 377.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 808.0 m | 587.0 m | -1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.0 m | 1.0 m | 3.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 807.0 m ≈ | 586.0 m ≈ | -1.0 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -83.0 m | 154.0 m | -30.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -62.0 m | 312.0 m | 988.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 2 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 14.6% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 5.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
15% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 14.6% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -7.8% | 57 (vs peers) | 43% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -19.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 57% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial57/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Klarna Group plc (KLAR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 24.8%; net margin -7.8%; ROE -11.9%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 14.6% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- FCF yield: -19.7%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Finance Services (SIC 6199) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXPAmerican Express Co | 223.0 bn | 18.7 | 35.9% | 27.9% | +6.4% | −9% / +95% |
| ARBKArgo Blockchain PLC | 45.2 bn | — | — | -117.2% | −7.0% | −97% / −99% |
| COINCoinbase Global, Inc. | 40.1 bn | — | -4.7% | -12.5% | +9.4% | −44% / +21% |
| SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc. | 22.4 bn | 36.3 | 7.1% | 104.3% | +23.1% | −42% / +138% |
| KLARKlarna Group plc | 5.2 bn | — | -11.9% | -7.8% | +24.8% | −62% / unavailable |
| MARAMara Holdings, Inc. | 2.7 bn | — | -107.2% | -430.2% | +38.2% | −42% / −43% |
| UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc. | 2.3 bn | 39.9 | 8.0% | 4.9% | +64.0% | −48% / −13% |
| PURRHyperliquid Strategies Inc | 1.9 bn | 3.0 | 32.6% | 3,229.8% | unavailable | unavailable / unavailable |
| CLSKCleanSpark, Inc. | 1.7 bn | — | -68.6% | -130.2% | +102.2% | −55% / +9% |
| BTDRBitdeer Technologies Group | 1.5 bn | — | -196.7% | -171.3% | −5.1% | −51% / +45% |
| RHLDResolute Holdings Management, Inc. | 1.0 bn | 24.1 | — | 4.2% | +9.9% | −26% / unavailable |
| CDChaince Digital Holdings Inc. | 741.4 m | — | -12.3% | -182.5% | +277.9% | −30% / +622% |
| GDOTGreen Dot Corp | 727.1 m | — | -2.8% | -1.1% | +20.7% | +2% / +59% |
| TRONTron Inc. | 664.1 m | 96.8 | 3.8% | 135.6% | +10.0% | −24% / −48% |
| JFU9F Inc. | 536.7 m | 23.2 | 4.7% | 125.2% | +12.2% | −52% / −43% |
| BTBTBit Digital, Inc. | 300.9 m | — | -56.7% | -237.2% | +5.1% | −65% / −68% |
| CANGCango Inc. | 272.7 m | — | -130.8% | -90.4% | +524.3% | −92% / −76% |
| CNTNCanton Strategic Holdings, Inc. | 172.1 m | — | -43.1% | — | unavailable | −17% / −83% |
| USBCUsbc, Inc. | 166.5 m | — | -414.1% | — | −100.0% | −47% / −97% |
| SNFCASecurity National Financial Corporation | 166.1 m | 6.5 | 9.0% | 11.1% | +3.0% | +15% / +37% |
| TONXTon Strategy Company | 159.7 m | — | -75.5% | -532.8% | +1,327.8% | −15% / −93% |
| BMHLBluemount Holdings Limited | 79.0 m | 61,098.2 | 26.2% | 18.8% | unavailable | −8% / unavailable |
| UPXIUpexi, Inc. | 62.9 m | — | -1,356.3% | -984.3% | +58.1% | −73% / −95% |
| SGRXSangrix Inc. | 40.8 m | — | -300.3% | -36,190.3% | −98.6% | −99% / −100% |
| AVXAvax One Technology Ltd. | 34.9 m | — | -189.6% | -1,533.9% | +8,709.3% | −80% / −100% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for KLAR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 26 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (18 Aug 2026), 6-K (28 Jul 2026), 6-K (06 Jul 2026), 6-K (01 Jul 2026), 6-K (23 Jun 2026), 6-K (27 May 2026).
In brief
Klarna Group plc is a digital bank and flexible payments provider that connects consumers and merchants through a global commerce network. The company is growing its financing products quickly, and in fiscal 2025 revenue reached 3509 million USD while the net loss remained a key concern for investors.
SWOT
Strengths
- A large global network of consumers and merchants and strong brand recognition in several markets 1.
- Risk underwriting based on proprietary data and real-time decisions, which supports credit losses below the industry average 1.
- A banking licence and access to consumer deposits give a funding source that can be cheaper than many alternatives 1.
Weaknesses
- The company posted operating and net losses in fiscal 2025, showing that scale has not yet fully translated into profit 1.
- Processing and funding costs rose as a share of volume, and the U.S. market carries structurally higher fees 1.
- Rapid growth in products with higher upfront provisions makes profit more sensitive to shifts in credit risk 1.
Opportunities
- Expanding the Klarna Card and in-app services could raise consumer retention and transaction volume 1.
- Advertising and merchant marketing services could generate additional revenue at lower cost 1.
- The AI assistant and personalised shopping services could deepen customer relationships and open new revenue streams 1.
Risks
- Credit losseshigh
Credit losses rose alongside Fair Financing, and a deterioration in the economy could amplify this effect 1.
- Profitabilityhigh
The company reported operating and net losses in fiscal 2025, and profitability could stay under pressure if costs grow faster than revenue 1.
- Funding costsmedium
Funding costs, including fair value adjustments on sold loans, could rise if market conditions worsen 1.
- Banking and consumer regulationmedium
Banking status and consumer-protection rules could bring restrictions or penalties, as the company experienced with its supervisor in the past 1.
- Concentration on the U.S. marketlow
Growth in the United States brings higher processing fees, and dependence on that market could expose the company to local shifts 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If transaction volume keeps growing and fees stabilise, revenue could become more predictable and support a return to profitability 1.
- The large consumer and merchant network together with the strong brand could make Klarna a default payment option for many shoppers 1.
- If banking services, the card and advertising grow together, the company could diversify its revenue and reduce dependence on one product 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Trend in credit losses and provisions on Fair FinancingQ1 2027
- Operating margin and the path of the net loss2027
- Pace of adoption of the Klarna Card and advertising servicesnext 10-K
- Funding and processing costs as a share of GMVQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 26 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (18 Aug 2026), 6-K (28 Jul 2026), 6-K (06 Jul 2026), 6-K (01 Jul 2026), 6-K (23 Jun 2026), 6-K (27 May 2026).
The business
Klarna began in Sweden in 2005 with pay-after-delivery payments and has grown into a global digital commerce network with approximately 118 million active consumers and 966 thousand merchants in 26 countries as of December 31, 2025 1. Revenue comes mainly from merchant fees, interest and the sale of receivables, and GMV reached 128 billion USD in fiscal 2025 1. The company listed on the New York Stock Exchange after its May 2024 reorganization, which moved the parent to the United Kingdom 1.
Segments
Merchant payments (Pay Later and Pay in Full)
This line generates transaction and service revenue from merchant fees, which grew in fiscal 2025 alongside GMV, and is monetised mainly by driving more sales across the network rather than by charging consumers interest 1. The company states that 97% of transactions were interest-free in fiscal 2025 1.
Market context
Klarna operates in digital payments, where shoppers seek flexible payment options and large merchants are increasingly willing to integrate them at checkout 1. The United States is the most important growth market but also the most costly, since processing fees there are structurally higher 1.
The company shows that consumer credit grew faster than fee revenue in fiscal 2025, changing the risk and funding profile of the business 1. It states its credit losses are below the industry average, though this depends on economic conditions 1.
Trends
- Growth of fixed-term financingmixed
Fair Financing grew rapidly and pushed interest income higher, which could support growth if consumer demand holds 1.
- Card and digital banking expansiontailwind
Expanding the card and in-app banking features could deepen direct consumer relationships and reduce reliance on a single product 1.
- Funding and processing costsheadwind
Funding and processing costs rose as a share of GMV in fiscal 2025, which could weigh on margins if the trend continues 1.
- Banking regulationmixed
Holding a banking licence in the European Economic Area gives access to deposits but also brings strict prudential supervision that could limit product flexibility 1.
Competitive position
Klarna competes with other flexible payment providers, with banks offering short-term credit, and with card networks that increasingly integrate deferred payments 1. The company's stated edge is its proprietary closed-loop network, which lets it issue, fund and settle the entire payment 1.
- VisaV
Card network cited in the source as a model of an open network that Klarna compares itself with 1.
- MastercardMA
Card network cited in the source alongside Visa and American Express as a reference for open networks 1.
- American ExpressAXP
Card network cited in the source as a reference point for open networks in the comparison with Klarna 1.
- Payment processors (PSPs) and traditional banks
Partners and indirect competitors, including payment processors and banks offering short-term credit, named in the source 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Here Are Tuesday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Abercrombie & Fitch, Affirm Holdings, Eagle Materials, Klarna Group, Martin Marietta Materials, Oklo, Qualcomm, Robinhood Markets, Ulta Beauty, and MoreYahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Klarna Recently Went for Its Worst Week Ever, Down More Than 30%Yahoo Finance — News · 30 Aug 2026 · EN
- Here’s What Jim Cramer Thinks Is In Store For PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) & KlarnaYahoo Finance — News · 29 Aug 2026 · EN
- Klarna CEO Scoops Up $10 Million of Stock as Post-IPO Slump ContinuesYahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
- Klarna Billionaire Sebastian Siemiatkowski Buys $10 Million Shares. Is This a Signal to Buy KLAR Too?Yahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
- Klarna Rallies 6%, Sezzle Gains 2% as Buy Now Pay Later Relief Trade Broadens, Affirm Jumps 10%Yahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
- Klarna (KLAR) Q2 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptYahoo Finance — News · 25 Aug 2026 · EN
- Affirm (AFRM) Slipped After Klarna Cut Guidance. Category Warning or Share-Gain Opportunity?Yahoo Finance — News · 25 Aug 2026 · EN
- Here Are Tuesday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Advanced Micro Devices, Dynatrace, Five Below, Fortune Brands, Klarna Group, Jersey Mike’s Subs, Moderna, Sherwin-Williams, and MoreYahoo Finance — News · 25 Aug 2026 · EN
- Klarna loses two more senior executivesSifted (EU startups) · 18 Aug 2026 · EN
- Bath & Body Works Surges on Stock Recommendation; Klarna Drops on Guidance | Stock MoversBloomberg Markets · 18 Aug 2026 · EN
- Klarna Cuts Revenue Guidance as It Widens User OfferingsBloomberg Markets · 18 Aug 2026 · EN
- Klarna and Zilch launch new paid membership packagesTech.eu · 13 Aug 2026 · EN
- Apple plans to lease iPhones for $17.99 a month through partnership with KlarnaCNBC World · 28 Jul 2026 · EN
- Europe’s ‘real’ founder factories: Klarna and ImprobableSifted (EU startups) · 15 Jul 2026 · RO
- Klarna Plans New Buy-Now-Pay-Later SRT as It Targets US GrowthBloomberg Markets · 14 Jul 2026 · EN
- This founder sold his startup to Klarna for €110m. Now he's raised €12m to build againSifted (EU startups) · 14 Jul 2026 · RO
- Klarna applies for US banking licenceTech.eu · 06 Jul 2026 · RO
- В Швеции Google оштрафовали на $1,5 млрд в пользу сервиса KlarnaKommersant (RU) · 01 Jul 2026 · RU
- Klarna wins $1.97bn antitrust lawsuit against GoogleSifted (EU startups) · 01 Jul 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)06 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)23 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 May 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)26 Feb 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Feb 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)19 Feb 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Klarna Group plc · 26 Feb 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.