olivLaw · US equity research
Qfin Holdings, Inc. QFIN
Finance Services · SIC 6199 · Vertical: Finance Services (SIC 6199)
Qfin Holdings is an AI-empowered Credit-Tech platform in China that matches consumers and small businesses with financial institutions providing credit. Its relevance has grown as China's consumer credit sector has faced regulatory adjustments and higher delinquencies, with loan facilitation of RMB327.1 billion in 2025.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Qfin Holdings, Inc. (QFIN) stock was 5.51 USD (+4.46% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.3 bn USD, P/E 1.7 on diluted EPS of 3.15 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 14.68%, beta 0.97, 52-week range 5.17–23.53 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 36.8
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 5.05 – 6.12
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.43 · band width 19.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 7.08 / 12.37
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.53 / -0.65
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −16.0% | −1.1% | −14.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −58.1% | −0.5% | −57.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −60.0% | +4.4% | −64.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | −71.4% | +12.3% | −83.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | −75.2% | +13.5% | −88.7 pp | −52.3% |
| 3 years | −65.5% | +76.4% | −141.9 pp | −66.7% |
| 5 years | −73.2% | +63.7% | −136.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 7-quarter history (min 6.1, median 8.2, max 13.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 646.8 m | 1.3 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +104.8% | +57.0% | +25.6% | −8.1% | −4.4% | +2.5% | +16.8% |
| Net income | 173.6 m | 359.3 m | 535.7 m | 904.6 m | 580.8 m | 601.2 m | 856.0 m | 854.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +107.0% | +49.1% | +68.8% | −35.8% | +3.5% | +42.4% | −0.2% |
| Diluted EPS | -1.37 | 1.19 | 1.75 | 2.82 | 1.81 | 1.84 | 2.83 | 3.15 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +47.1% | +61.1% | −35.8% | +1.7% | +53.8% | +11.3% |
| net % | 26.8% | 27.1% | 25.8% | 34.7% | 24.2% | 26.2% | 36.4% | 31.1% |
| Free cash flow | 40.2 m | 423.4 m | 813.9 m | 904.6 m | 854.8 m | 990.7 m | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 671.6 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 3.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 8.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.43x
- ROE
- 25.2%
- ROA
- 11.6%
- FCF margin
- 56.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.1 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 245.3 m | 353.4 m | 344.1 m | 374.6 m | 397.4 m | 429.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.8 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | 2.1 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | 2.0 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026derived |
| Operating income | 580.9 m | 1.1 bn | 648.4 m | 684.1 m | 1.0 bn | 955.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 5.5 m | 10.4 m | 11.2 m | 10.4 m | 10.3 m | 9.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 586.4 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 659.6 m ≈ | 694.5 m ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 964.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 625.6 m | 1.1 bn | 687.6 m | 743.3 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 89.8 m | 197.4 m | 106.8 m | 142.1 m | 225.3 m | 200.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 535.7 m | 904.6 m | 580.8 m | 601.2 m | 856.0 m | 854.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.75 | 2.82 | 1.81 | 1.84 | 2.83 | 3.15 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 306.7 m | 321.4 m | 322.0 m | 328.5 m | 303.4 m | 272.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.61 | 0.81 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 677.2 m | 959.8 m | 1.0 bn | 588.4 m | 610.0 m | 671.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 3.4 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.9 bn | 7.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 3.0 m | 3.9 m | 6.9 m | 32.6 m | 49.7 m | 91.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | — | — | 5.8 m | 5.8 m | 6.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 522.0 k | 778.0 k | 681.0 k | 1.9 m | 1.6 m | 1.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 3.7 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.6 bn | 8.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | — | 17.9 m | 90.6 m | 247.5 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.3 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.3 bn | 4.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.5 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 322.8 m | 315.2 m | 284.0 m | 243.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 816.2 m | 908.5 m | 858.7 m | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 2.3 m | 4.0 m | 3.9 m | 11.9 m | 21.0 m | 34.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 813.9 m ≈ | 904.6 m ≈ | 854.8 m ≈ | 990.7 m ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 136.8 m | -951.6 m | -1.1 bn | -1.6 bn | -1.1 bn | -1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -503.1 m | 355.2 m | 464.5 m | 150.2 m | -289.7 m | 398.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | — | 143.3 m | 132.6 m | 173.0 m | 197.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | — | 89.6 m | 407.3 m | 693.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 89 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet100
- Valuation94
- Quality92
- Growth69
- Returns100
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 10.62 – 69.53 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E12.65 – 69.53 (Mid 40.48)10 companies used · median multiple 12.8x · quartiles 4.0x – 22.1xAXP, DEFT, HKD, JFU, LX, SOFI, VIP, WD, XYF, YRD
- Dividend discount (DDM)10.62 – 14.28 (Mid 12.18)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 89/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 31.1% | 84 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 181.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 4.6% | 38 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 20.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 1.7x | 90 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 115.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 66.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 12.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth69/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality92/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation94/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Qfin Holdings, Inc. (QFIN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 16.8%; net margin 31.1%; ROE 25.3%.
The estimated value range is 11.64–41.90 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 26.33 USD, the price of 5.50 USD leaves a potential of 378.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 79.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 89/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 31.1%
- FCF conversion: 181.5%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 20.3%
- Current ratio: 2.4x
- P/E (TTM): 1.7x
- FCF yield: 115.5%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 66.3%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 12.7%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Finance Services (SIC 6199) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXPAmerican Express Co | 223.0 bn | 18.7 | 35.9% | 27.9% | +6.4% | −9% / +95% |
| COINCoinbase Global, Inc. | 40.1 bn | — | -4.7% | -12.5% | +9.4% | −44% / +21% |
| SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc. | 22.4 bn | 36.3 | 7.1% | 104.3% | +23.1% | −42% / +138% |
| KLARKlarna Group plc | 5.2 bn | — | -11.9% | -7.8% | +24.8% | −56% / unavailable |
| GPGIGPGI, Inc. | 3.7 bn | — | -20.6% | — | −85.8% | −36% / +208% |
| BLSHBullish | 3.5 bn | — | -27.3% | -0.3% | −2.2% | −47% / unavailable |
| CIFRCipher Digital Inc. | 3.0 bn | — | -156.8% | -742.3% | +48.0% | −68% / +135% |
| MARAMara Holdings, Inc. | 2.7 bn | — | -107.2% | -430.2% | +38.2% | −42% / −43% |
| QFINQfin Holdings, Inc. | 1.3 bn | 1.7 | 25.3% | 31.1% | +16.8% | −75% / −65% |
| WDWalker & Dunlop, Inc. | 1.3 bn | 34.4 | 2.2% | 3.0% | +9.0% | −41% / −54% |
| KEELKeel Infrastructure Corp. | 1.3 bn | — | -87.6% | -230.6% | +72.0% | −40% / +47% |
| XYFX Financial | 1.2 bn | 5.9 | 20.2% | 19.2% | +35.8% | −28% / +15% |
| CDChaince Digital Holdings Inc. | 741.4 m | — | -12.3% | -182.5% | +277.9% | −30% / +622% |
| GDOTGreen Dot Corp | 727.1 m | — | -2.8% | -1.1% | +20.7% | +2% / +59% |
| JFU9F Inc. | 536.7 m | 23.2 | 4.7% | 125.2% | +12.2% | −52% / −43% |
| CANGCango Inc. | 272.7 m | — | -130.8% | -90.4% | +524.3% | −92% / −76% |
| BKKTBakkt, Inc. | 215.0 m | — | -15.9% | -1.3% | −32.1% | −70% / −87% |
| ZSQRZ Squared Inc. | 192.4 m | — | -25.9% | -642.0% | unavailable | −81% / −84% |
| DEFTDefi Technologies Inc. | 152.4 m | 2.3 | 74.0% | 62.9% | +215.5% | −74% / unavailable |
| HSDTSolana Company | 127.0 m | — | -183.2% | -1,302.8% | +1,057.1% | −49% / −100% |
| GHIGreystone Housing Impact Investors LP | 111.0 m | — | — | -5.1% | −6.4% | −33% / −72% |
| AGPUAxe Compute Inc | 86.2 m | — | -1,565.2% | -7,769.8% | +47.7% | +24% / −85% |
| YRDYiren Digital Ltd. | 68.9 m | 8.8 | 0.6% | 1.0% | −85.9% | −91% / −86% |
| BTCSBTCS Inc. | 54.6 m | — | -354.8% | -746.3% | +304.8% | −67% / +6% |
| ZSTKZeroStack Corp. | 47.4 m | — | -1,993.6% | -444.2% | −0.5% | −67% / −94% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for QFIN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 3.62 Total return -21% · Per year -21% | 6.41 Total return 33% · Per year 33% | 9.65 Total return 96% · Per year 96% |
| 3 years | 3.52 Total return 2% · Per year 1% | 7.01 Total return 81% · Per year 22% | 11.59 Total return 178% · Per year 41% |
| 5 years | 3.43 Total return 25% · Per year 5% | 7.67 Total return 133% · Per year 18% | 13.92 Total return 278% · Per year 30% |
- Exit P/E± 1.75
- Net margin± 1.23
- Annual revenue growth± 1.01
- Annual dilution± 0.10
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 27 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (21 Sept 2026), 6-K (25 Aug 2026), 6-K (13 Aug 2026), 6-K (30 Jun 2026), 6-K (03 Jun 2026), 6-K (27 May 2026).
In brief
Qfin Holdings is an AI-empowered Credit-Tech platform in China that matches consumers and small businesses with financial institutions providing credit. Its relevance has grown as China's consumer credit sector has faced regulatory adjustments and higher delinquencies, with loan facilitation of RMB327.1 billion in 2025.
SWOT
Strengths
- The platform has a broad user base with approved credit lines and a high rate of repeat borrowing, which supports long-term customer relationships.
- The capital-light model and platform services reduce direct exposure to credit risk on a significant part of the business.
- A wide network of institutional partners and diversified funding through ABSs and ABNs give flexibility in accessing capital.
Weaknesses
- The operating history is relatively short, and the company has not yet gone through a full credit cycle in China.
- Delinquencies rose in the second half of 2025, showing the portfolio's sensitivity to regulatory changes and macroeconomic conditions.
- The VIE structure relies on contractual arrangements, which may give weaker operational control than direct ownership.
Opportunities
- Overseas expansion, begun in 2024, could diversify the business geographically if the model adapts to local markets.
- Total technology solutions for financial institutions could deepen partner cooperation and generate service revenue.
- If AI models improve their accuracy, the company could reduce delinquencies and attract higher-quality borrowers.
Threats
- Regulatory measures on interest rate caps and online lending could limit revenue margins and loan volumes.
- Legislative changes on the VIE structure or data protection could affect the operating model and costs.
- If partner institutions restrict funding because of deteriorating credit, access to capital could fall significantly.
Risks
- Regulatory riskhigh
Changes to rules on online lending, interest rate caps and the VIE structure could substantially alter how the business operates and affect the sustainability of its model.
- Credit riskhigh
A deterioration in borrower credit profiles during a weak economic cycle could lead to higher defaults, and the company bears the risk on part of its portfolio.
- Dependence on fundersmedium
Partner institutions that tighten approval policies could limit funding available to the intermediary.
- Limited operating historymedium
The absence of a full credit cycle in China makes it harder to estimate portfolio behavior under prolonged stress.
- Data and cybersecurity riskmedium
Personal data protection and cybersecurity are subject to new regulations, and breaches could bring penalties and reputational harm.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- A base of users with approved credit lines and a high repeat-borrowing rate could support recurring revenue if the regulatory environment stabilizes.
- The capital-light model reduces direct credit exposure, and growth in platform services could improve profitability.
- AI development and international expansion could open new revenue sources if execution is strong.
What would break the thesis
- The rise in delinquencies in the second half of 2025 shows the portfolio is sensitive to regulatory changes and macroeconomic pressure.
- The VIE structure and reliance on contractual arrangements could weaken control over operations if legislation changes.
- Dependence on funding institutions and an unknown credit cycle could limit growth if access to funds tightens.
What to watch
- Trend in the 90 day+ delinquency rate and vintage delinquenciesQ1 2027
- Effects of interest rate cap measures on loan facilitation volume2027
- Results of overseas expansion and total technology solutionsnext 10-K
- Number of institutional partners and funding conditionsQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 27 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (21 Sept 2026), 6-K (25 Aug 2026), 6-K (13 Aug 2026), 6-K (30 Jun 2026), 6-K (03 Jun 2026), 6-K (27 May 2026).
The business
Founded in 2016, the company provides technology services that help financial institutions, consumers and SMEs through the loan lifecycle, from borrower acquisition and credit assessment to fund matching and post-facilitation services, with the Qifu Jietiao app as its primary user interface. It earns revenue mainly from service fees charged to its institutional partners. The annual report says it began exploring overseas expansion in 2024. 1
Activities are split into credit-driven services and platform services. In credit-driven services, partner institutions mostly fund loans and the company bears credit risk on some of them and guarantees loans funded by partners. Platform services, which include the capital-light model launched in 2018, carry no credit risk for the company, which earns service fees. 1
The China structure relies on variable interest entities (VIEs) controlled through contractual arrangements rather than direct equity ownership. Investors therefore buy shares of a Cayman Islands holding company, not of the operating entities, and this structure can be affected by regulatory changes in China. 1
Segments
Platform services
These include loan facilitation and post-facilitation services under the capital-light model, the Intelligence Credit Engine marketing service, referral fees and other technology solutions. The company takes no credit risk on these, and their share of facilitated volume was 44.1% in 2025. 1
Other technology solutions
This includes total technology solutions for financial institutions covering customer acquisition, risk management and credit operations, delivered on-premise, as SaaS or as a hybrid model. Basic RM SaaS solutions were discontinued at the end of 2024. 1
Market context
China's Credit-Tech market is still developing and its regulatory framework is evolving. The sector has not gone through a full credit cycle, which makes long-term prospects harder to assess. The company reports that loan facilitation volume rose slightly in 2025 after a decline in 2024. 1
From April 2025, regulators introduced measures for the consumer credit industry, including interest rate caps on certain online lending products, which led to a liquidity squeeze in the second half of the year. The company says this context increased pressure on its risk performance. 1
Trends
- Consumer credit regulatory adjustmentsmixed
Interest rate caps and online lending measures have tightened liquidity across the sector, but they may also clarify the long-term operating framework. The effect will depend on how the rules are applied.
- Rising delinquenciesheadwind
The 90 day+ delinquency rate increased in 2025, pointing to pressure on portfolio quality in an uncertain macroeconomic setting.
- Customer retentiontailwind
The share of repeat borrowings stayed high, suggesting that revolving credit lines and user experience continue to support the customer base.
- AI in risk assessmenttailwind
Development of machine learning models and the Argus Engine could improve fraud detection and assessment accuracy if it translates into better portfolio performance.
Competitive position
The annual report does not name specific competitors. The company operates in a crowded sector with other online lending platforms and traditional financial institutions, and competition centers on product quality and partnerships with funding institutions. 1
Relationships with financial institutions and diversified funding sources are key competitive factors. The company has collaborated with 167 partners cumulatively and has issued ABSs and ABNs, which can reduce dependence on any single funder. 1
- Other online lending platforms in China
The annual report refers to other online lending companies as rivals without naming them. No US-listed competitors are identified.
- Traditional financial institutions
Banks and other financial institutions may compete for the same borrowers or reduce the need for intermediation through their own digital channels.
- Financial technology providers
Providers of credit risk and marketing solutions may offer similar services to partner institutions.
- Guarantee and credit insurance companies
These are cited as partners in guarantee coverage but may also become competitors in certain risk segments.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- A Profit Collapse Masks Qfin’s (QFIN) Bigger AI AmbitionsYahoo Finance — News · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 03 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 21 Sept 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)21 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)25 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)12 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Qfin Holdings, Inc. · 27 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.