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olivLaw · US equity research

Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc. CPSS

Finance Services · SIC 6199 · Vertical: Finance Services (SIC 6199)

10.14USD+3.89% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Consumer Portfolio Services buys and services auto retail contracts for customers with limited or past credit problems, sourced mainly through US franchised dealers. Origination volume in the third quarter of 2026 rose by more than a third, 109 percent, while the portfolio reached a record level of 4.711 billion USD, making the firm relevant to the sub-prime auto credit market.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc. (CPSS) stock was 10.14 USD (+3.89% on the day), with market capitalisation 221.6 m USD, P/E 9.9 on diluted EPS of 1.02 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.46, 52-week range 7.53–10.30 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 131.9 m USD (+21.7% YoY), net income of 7.0 m USD (+43.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.30 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
221.6 m USD
shares as of 16 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
9.9
Diluted EPS TTM 1.02 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
10.06%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.46
Volatility (1y) 40%
52-week range
7.5310.30

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
60.8
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
8.67 – 10.26
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.92 · band width 16.8%
SMA 50 / 200
9.37 / 9.04
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.20 / 0.11
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+12.5%−1.1%+13.6 pp—
3 months+10.5%−0.5%+10.9 pp—
6 months−0.4%+4.4%−4.8 pp—
Year to date+8.7%+12.3%−3.6 pp—
1 year+24.3%+13.5%+10.7 pp−52.3%
3 years+2.4%+76.4%−74.0 pp−82.2%
5 years+37.0%+63.7%−26.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−22.1%
16 Dec 2025 → 13 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−69.0%
09 May 2022 → 19 Oct 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+6.5%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
131.9 m USD
+21.7% YoY
Net income
7.0 m USD
+43.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.30
+50.0% YoY
net / operating
5.3% / unavailable

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue105.3 m106.9 m109.8 m108.4 m109.4 m112.3 m121.4 m131.9 m
Depreciation & amortisation212.0 k249.0 k249.0 k207.0 k176.0 k225.0 k249.0 k265.0 k
Interest expense52.5 m54.9 m58.7 m59.1 m59.3 m60.1 m64.3 m70.5 m
Pre-tax income7.4 m6.8 m7.0 m7.0 m7.2 m8.0 m9.0 m10.1 m
Income tax2.2 m2.1 m2.2 m2.2 m2.2 m2.5 m2.8 m3.1 m
Net income5.1 m4.7 m4.8 m4.9 m5.0 m5.5 m6.2 m7.0 m
Diluted EPS0.21 ≈0.190.200.200.21 ≈0.240.270.30
Operating cash flow68.0 m73.9 m54.5 m ≈84.9 m ≈75.8 m83.8 m106.1 m ≈94.6 m ≈
Capex77.0 k471.0 k124.0 k ≈49.0 k ≈65.0 k796.0 k172.0 k ≈400.0 k ≈
Share repurchases005.1 m ≈981.0 k ≈2.6 m1.2 m2.5 m ≈5.2 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 78 percentile of its own 37-quarter history (min 2.2, median 5.6, max 103.8; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue389.8 m345.8 m271.2 m267.8 m329.7 m352.0 m393.5 m434.5 m
Revenue YoY−10.3%−11.3%−21.6%−1.2%+23.1%+6.8%+11.8%+10.4%
Net income14.9 m5.4 m21.7 m47.5 m86.0 m45.3 m19.2 m19.3 m
Net income YoY+294.7%−63.6%+301.0%+119.2%+80.9%−47.3%−57.6%+0.6%
Diluted EPS0.590.220.901.843.231.800.790.80
Diluted EPS YoY+321.4%−62.7%+309.1%+104.4%+75.5%−44.3%−56.1%+1.3%
net %3.8%1.6%8.0%17.7%26.1%12.9%4.9%4.4%
Free cash flow215.1 m216.0 m238.7 m196.2 m213.8 m237.4 m233.3 m288.3 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
6.3 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
309.5 m USD
Total assets
3.9 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
unavailable
ROE
unavailable
ROA
0.5%
FCF margin
66.4%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
352.0 m
2024
393.5 m
2025
434.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
847.0 k
2024
862.0 k
2025
881.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
146.6 m
2024
191.3 m
2025
232.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
61.1 m
2024
27.4 m
2025
28.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
15.8 m
2024
8.2 m
2025
8.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
45.3 m
2024
19.2 m
2025
19.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
1.80
2024
0.79
2025
0.80

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
25.2 m
2024
24.3 m
2025
24.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
6.2 m
2024
11.7 m
2025
6.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
1.4 m
2024
943.0 k
2025
771.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
2.9 bn
2024
3.5 bn
2025
3.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
62.5 m
2024
70.2 m
2025
65.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 11 May 2021verified

Total liabilities
2023
2.6 bn
2024
3.2 bn
2025
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
274.7 m †
2024
0 †
2025
309.5 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
238.0 m
2024
233.8 m
2025
289.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
559.0 k
2024
433.0 k
2025
709.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
237.4 m ≈
2024
233.3 m ≈
2025
288.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-359.5 m
2024
-769.7 m
2025
-590.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
84.2 m
2024
547.9 m
2025
335.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
20.3 m
2024
12.8 m
2025
8.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
10.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
9.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
9.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income growth (YoY)
0.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-39.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-2.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
1.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-37.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-2.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
23.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
unavailable
input data missing
Net margin
5.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
75.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
7.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
0.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
unavailable
input data missing

Cash

Operating cash flow
360.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
1.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
358.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
1,513.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
221.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
9.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
9.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
10.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
0.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
162.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
5.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

10.14 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 221.6 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
221.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
9.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
7.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
5.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
10.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

21/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 16 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 30 Oct 2026
verified 1810derived 147

Score by group

54% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
3.56
USD per share
Mid
14.03
USD per share
High
24.34
USD per share
Price: 10.14 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 38.4% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 27.7% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.56 – 24.34 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E3.56 – 24.34 (Mid 14.03)
    10 companies used · median multiple 13.8x · quartiles 3.5x – 23.9x
    ATCH, AXP, CRCL, DEFT, JFU, LX, QFIN, RHLD, SOFI, YRD
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Finance Services (SIC 6199)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality5.0%75 (vs peers)12%
FCF conversion · Quality1,513.6%100 (on a fixed band)12%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth9.6%80 (on a fixed band)15%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-37.2%0 (on a fixed band)15%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
P/E (TTM) · Valuation9.9x50 (vs peers)19%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation162.0%100 (on a fixed band)15%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns5.2%74 (on a fixed band)12%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
  • Growth40/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality88/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial74/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation72/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

CONSUMER PORTFOLIO SERVICES, INC. (CPSS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 434.5 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 10.4%; net margin 5.0%; ROE 7.5%.

The estimated value range is 3.56–24.34 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 14.03 USD, the price of 10.14 USD leaves a potential of 38.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 27.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 5.0%
  • FCF conversion: 1,513.6%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 9.6%
  • FCF yield: 162.0%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.2%

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -37.2%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Finance Services (SIC 6199) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
9.9x
vertical median 13.8x
below median (−27.7%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
0.5x
vertical median 5.0x
below median (−90.7%)
P/B
0.7x
vertical median 1.0x
below median (−32.4%)
ROE
7.5%
vertical median -36.4%
above median
Net margin
5.0%
vertical median -89.2%
above median
EBIT margin
—
vertical median -127.0%
Revenue YoY
10.4%
vertical median 12.2%
below median (−14.5%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 4.0%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
AXPAmerican Express Co223.0 bn18.735.9%27.9%+6.4%−9% / +95%
BMNPBitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc.59.2 bn—-150.9%-14,306.6%+84.1%unavailable / unavailable
ARBKArgo Blockchain PLC45.2 bn——-117.2%−7.0%−97% / −99%
COINCoinbase Global, Inc.40.1 bn—-4.7%-12.5%+9.4%−44% / +21%
SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc.22.4 bn36.37.1%104.3%+23.1%−42% / +138%
RIOTRiot Platforms, Inc.5.8 bn—-50.5%-210.8%+71.9%−5% / +22%
BTDRBitdeer Technologies Group1.5 bn—-196.7%-171.3%−5.1%−51% / +45%
QFINQfin Holdings, Inc.1.3 bn1.725.3%31.1%+16.8%−72% / −65%
KEELKeel Infrastructure Corp.1.3 bn—-87.6%-230.6%+72.0%−40% / +47%
RHLDResolute Holdings Management, Inc.1.0 bn24.1—4.2%+9.9%−26% / unavailable
CDChaince Digital Holdings Inc.741.4 m—-12.3%-182.5%+277.9%−30% / +622%
GDOTGreen Dot Corp727.1 m—-2.8%-1.1%+20.7%+2% / +59%
JFU9F Inc.536.7 m23.24.7%125.2%+12.2%−52% / −43%
HIVEHive Digital Technologies Ltd.499.2 m—-66.4%-98.5%+158.3%−46% / −41%
CHADDefi Development Corp.310.0 m—-589.3%-1,319.5%+442.3%unavailable / unavailable
CPSSConsumer Portfolio Services, Inc.221.6 m9.97.5%5.0%+10.4%+24% / +2%
BKKTBakkt, Inc.215.0 m—-15.9%-1.3%−32.1%−70% / −87%
USBCUsbc, Inc.166.5 m—-414.1%—−100.0%−47% / −97%
DEFTDefi Technologies Inc.152.4 m2.374.0%62.9%+215.5%−74% / unavailable
SLNHSoluna Holdings, Inc.136.7 m—-114.6%-185.9%−21.8%−67% / −82%
SUIGSui Group Holdings Limited81.4 m—-683.9%-11,373.7%+18.1%−47% / −60%
YRDYiren Digital Ltd.68.9 m8.80.6%1.0%−85.9%−91% / −86%
HYPDHyperion Defi, Inc.47.7 m—9.6%474.9%+1,318.8%−32% / −97%
ZSTKZeroStack Corp.47.4 m—-1,993.6%-444.2%−0.5%−67% / −94%
EXODExodus Movement, Inc.43.5 m—-36.4%-79.9%+4.5%−72% / −6%

1- and 3-year price returns: for CPSS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
6.71
Total return -34% · Per year -34%
11.83
Total return 17% · Per year 17%
17.78
Total return 75% · Per year 75%
3 years
7.20
Total return -29% · Per year -11%
14.22
Total return 40% · Per year 12%
23.37
Total return 130% · Per year 32%
5 years
7.73
Total return -24% · Per year -5%
17.09
Total return 69% · Per year 11%
30.70
Total return 203% · Per year 25%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 3.55
  • Net margin± 2.49
  • Annual revenue growth± 1.95
  • Annual dilution± 0.21

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 23 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026).

In brief

Consumer Portfolio Services buys and services auto retail contracts for customers with limited or past credit problems, sourced mainly through US franchised dealers. Origination volume in the third quarter of 2026 rose by more than a third, 109 percent 3, while the portfolio reached a record level of 4.711 billion USD 3, making the firm relevant to the sub-prime auto credit market.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has long experience in sub-prime auto finance and a steady flow of fast automated decisions for dealer applications.
  • Its dealer network has expanded and origination volume has grown strongly, showing an ability to attract new business.
  • Portfolio credit quality improved compared with the prior year, and auction recoveries increased.

Weaknesses

  • The company carries heavy debt that depends on securitizations and periodically renewed credit lines.
  • Interest cost is a large share of expenses, which makes profit sensitive to the cost of funds.
  • A high-risk customer base means larger losses during economic downturns.

Opportunities

  • If securitization markets stay open, the company could keep growing its portfolio.
  • Expanding the dealer network and raising credit lines could support further purchases.
  • Refinancing existing auto loans could open a new revenue channel.

Threats

  • A reversal in securitization market conditions could limit the company's access to funding.
  • Rising consumer bankruptcies or falling used-vehicle prices could weaken recoveries.
  • Changes in consumer credit regulation could raise compliance costs.

Risks

  • Funding dependencehigh

    The company relies on securitizations and warehouse lines. If access to these sources narrows, purchases could be reduced or halted.

  • High indebtednesshigh

    Total debt was about 3.5 billion USD at year-end 2025 1. Servicing this debt depends on future performance, and a shortfall would have serious effects.

  • Credit risk of the customer basehigh

    Sub-prime customers generate higher losses in downturns, and delinquencies could rise quickly.

  • Release of excess cash from securitizationsmedium

    Cash flow to the company depends on the performance of securitized contracts. Deterioration could affect liquidity.

  • Consumer credit regulationmedium

    Changes to consumer credit law could affect lending practices and compliance costs.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Origination volume and the portfolio reached record levels, and revenue grew faster than expenses, suggesting favorable operating leverage 3.
  • Portfolio credit quality improved, with fewer delinquencies and lower net charge-offs than the prior year 3.
  • The company obtained additional funding capacity and completed successful securitizations, which could support future growth 23.

What would break the thesis

  • The company is heavily indebted, and any tightening of funding could force a reduction in purchases.
  • The sub-prime customer base carries credit risk, and an economic downturn could raise losses significantly.
  • Rapid portfolio growth can hide credit quality problems that only appear after several quarters.

What to watch

  • Trend in delinquencies and net charge-offs in the growing portfolioQ1 2027
  • Renewal and expansion of warehouse lines and results of quarterly securitizations2027
  • Share of interest expense in operating costsQ1 2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 23 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026).

The business

The company is a specialty finance firm that buys and services retail installment contracts for new and used vehicles, mainly from franchised dealers and to a lesser extent from independent dealers 1. It serves customers with limited credit histories or past credit problems, which it calls sub-prime, and acts as an alternative financing source to banks and captive finance arms 1. Since 2021 it has financed most contracts through term securitizations that place long-term risk with institutional investors 1.

The headquarters are in Las Vegas, Nevada, while most operations and administrative functions are in Irvine, California 1. Credit underwriting is performed mainly in a California branch with support in Florida and Nevada 1. Short-term funding relies on warehouse lines whose capacity rose from 702.5 million USD at year-end 2025 1 to 725.0 million USD at June 30, 2026 2.

Segments

Auto contract purchases

This is the main revenue engine, made of retail installment contracts bought from dealers. Annual purchase volume was 1.638 billion USD in 2025 1, and rose to 815.3 million USD in the third quarter of 2026 3.

Servicing and recoveries

The company services its own portfolio and contracts it manages for third parties, which totaled 3.898 billion USD at December 31, 2025 1. Net recovery rates on repossessed vehicles sold at auction reached 32.0 percent in the third quarter of 2026 3.

Market context

Auto finance is described as the second largest consumer finance market in the United States 1, and the sub-prime segment is described as fragmented with no single dominant player 1. The weighted average annual rate on own-portfolio contracts was 20.0 percent in 2025 1, a level that reflects the high risk of the customer base. The recent growth in origination volume suggests dealer demand for alternative financing stayed strong in 2026 3.

Demand depends on dealers' access to alternative financing and on the company's ability to raise funds in capital markets. If securitization markets deteriorate, the company could reduce purchases, as it has done in earlier periods 1.

Trends

  • Rising origination volumetailwind

    Contract purchases grew strongly in 2026 and the portfolio reached a record level 3. If this pace continues, higher interest income could support profitability.

  • Access to securitization and fundingmixed

    The company relies on quarterly securitizations and warehouse lines, and capacity rose to 725.0 million USD at June 30, 2026 2. Capital market conditions remain a key risk factor.

  • Improving credit qualitytailwind

    Delinquencies and net charge-offs fell from a year earlier, and auction recovery rates rose 3. A reversal of this trend would weigh on results.

  • Cost of borrowingheadwind

    Interest expense is a major part of operating costs, at about 58 percent 3. Higher funding costs would compress margins, especially while the portfolio grows quickly.

Competitive position

Competition comes from independent sub-prime specialists, subsidiaries of larger financial groups, and some banks that also operate in this segment 1. The segment is described as fragmented with no dominant leader 1. The company differentiates through its dealer network and fast decisions, with automated answers within seconds for most applications 1.

Its competitive position depends on decision speed and keeping dealer relationships, as management's comments on expanding the network show 3. Competitive pressure may show up in the acquisition fees paid to dealers 1.

  • Independent sub-prime auto lenders

    Specialist firms competing for the same dealers and customers with weak credit histories, not identified in the analysed sources.

  • Subsidiaries of larger financial groups

    Affiliates of financial companies active in the sub-prime segment and competing for dealer financing.

  • Traditional banks

    Institutions that sometimes take part in the sub-prime segment, though they focus mainly on prime borrowers.

  • Captive finance arms of auto manufacturers

    Finance subsidiaries of carmakers, aimed mainly at borrowers with good credit.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc. · 16 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc. · 23 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.