olivLaw · US equity research
Centerra Gold Inc. CGAU
Gold and Silver Ores · SIC 1040 · Vertical: Gold and Silver Ores (SIC 1040)
Centerra Gold Inc. is a Canadian gold mining company whose shares are listed on the NYSE and the Toronto Stock Exchange, and its report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 was filed on Form 40-F. The document describes a company that relies on IFRS and NI 43-101 for mineral reserves, which makes its information harder to compare with US companies.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) stock was 21.41 USD (+9.18% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.3 bn USD, dividend yield 0.97%, beta 0.88, 52-week range 11.35–24.25 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 51.2
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 19.59 – 22.93
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.55 · band width 15.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 22.04 / 19.00
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.39 / -0.35
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.7% | −1.1% | +0.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | +10.0% | −0.5% | +10.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +18.9% | +4.4% | +14.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +49.0% | +12.3% | +36.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +91.5% | +13.5% | +78.0 pp | −11.8% |
| 3 years | +255.6% | +76.4% | +179.2 pp | +142.0% |
| 5 years | +164.6% | +63.7% | +101.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 721.3 m | 900.1 m | 850.2 m | 1.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +24.8% | −5.5% | +28.8% |
| Net income | 408.5 m | -381.8 m | -77.2 m | -81.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −193.4% | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 1.37 | -1.29 | -0.31 | -0.38 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −194.2% | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 56.6% | -42.4% | -9.1% | -7.4% |
| Free cash flow | 826.5 m | 322.3 m | -82.9 m | 160.3 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2023 · 31 Dec 2023
- Cash
- 612.9 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 1.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 2.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 3.25x
- ROE
- -4.7%
- ROA
- -3.5%
- FCF margin
- 14.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 721.3 m | 900.1 m | 850.2 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Gross profit | 215.5 m | 292.0 m | 178.5 m | 264.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Operating income | 43.9 m | 333.9 m | -36.8 m | 17.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 95.8 m | 120.5 m | 97.1 m | 124.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| EBITDA | 139.7 m ≈ | 454.4 m ≈ | 60.3 m ≈ | 142.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024derived |
| Interest expense | 13.8 m | 4.8 m | 9.5 m | 15.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Pre-tax income | 23.8 m | 402.9 m | -44.4 m | 13.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Income tax | 7.7 m | -44.0 m | 32.8 m | 94.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Net income | 408.5 m | -381.8 m | -77.2 m | -81.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.37 | -1.29 | -0.31 | -0.38 | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 296.2 m | 296.6 m | 266.3 m | 218.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Dividend per share | — | 0.15 | 0.22 | 0.21 | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024derived |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 545.2 m | 947.2 m | 531.9 m | 612.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Receivables | 66.1 m | 76.8 m | 92.2 m | 70.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Inventories | 580.6 m | 221.2 m | 316.8 m | 257.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Current assets | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 990.7 m | 966.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.7 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | — | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2023verified |
| Total assets | 3.1 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Accounts payable | 232.7 m | 186.8 m | 199.4 m | 201.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Current liabilities | 257.8 m | 227.4 m | 274.9 m | 297.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Equity | 2.5 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | 297.1 m | 218.4 m | 215.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 930.0 m | 414.8 m | -2.0 m | 245.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Capex | 103.6 m | 92.5 m | 80.9 m | 85.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Free cash flow | 826.5 m ≈ | 322.3 m ≈ | -82.9 m ≈ | 160.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024derived |
| Investing cash flow | -303.4 m | 36.4 m | -255.6 m | -90.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Financing cash flow | -124.0 m | -49.1 m | -157.7 m | -74.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Dividends paid | 39.8 m | 45.0 m | 47.7 m | 44.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Mar 2024verified |
| Share repurchases | — | 0 | 104.5 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2023verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 4.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.74 – 3.68 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)2.74 – 3.68 (Mid 3.14)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -7.4% | 25 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 14.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.7% | 47 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.5% | 50 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 28.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial25/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns70/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial47/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
CENTERRA GOLD INC. (CGAU). Latest full fiscal year: 2023; data up to 2023-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.1 bn USD in 2023; YoY growth 28.8%; net margin -7.4%; ROE -4.7%.
The estimated value range is 2.74–3.68 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 3.14 USD, the price of 21.41 USD leaves a potential of -85.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -581.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 14.9%
- Current ratio: 3.2x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 28.0%
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -7.4%
- Interest coverage: 1.2x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Gold and Silver Ores (SIC 1040) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEMNewmont Corporation | 122.7 bn | 13.7 | 26.8% | 34.7% | +21.3% | +30% / +194% |
| AEMAgnico Eagle Mines Limited | 91.7 bn | 20.7 | 19.6% | 37.5% | +43.7% | +5% / +242% |
| BBarrick Mining Corp | 67.2 bn | 13.7 | 19.6% | 29.4% | +31.2% | −3% / +128% |
| FNVFRANCO NEVADA Corp | 46.7 bn | 42.0 | 16.3% | 61.0% | +63.7% | +15% / +116% |
| AUAngloGold Ashanti plc | 44.4 bn | 17.0 | 43.1% | 32.1% | +70.8% | +3% / +357% |
| GFIGold Fields Limited | 32.9 bn | 26.6 | 25.7% | 23.9% | +15.6% | −14% / +140% |
| KGCKinross Gold Corp | 25.7 bn | 11.0 | 31.0% | 33.9% | +36.9% | −24% / +264% |
| PAASPan American Silver Corp. | 17.5 bn | 16.2 | 16.8% | 27.1% | +28.4% | −9% / +165% |
| CDECoeur Mining, Inc. | 14.9 bn | 16.0 | 10.3% | 19.2% | +96.4% | −16% / +378% |
| AGIAlamos Gold Inc. | 12.6 bn | 14.3 | 22.1% | 49.0% | +34.3% | −20% / +103% |
| HMYHarmony Gold Mining Company Limited | 10.4 bn | — | — | — | +25.8% | −17% / +163% |
| EQXEquinox Gold Corp. | 8.9 bn | 32.2 | 4.8% | 12.2% | +99.1% | −19% / +106% |
| AGFirst Majestic Silver Corp. | 7.6 bn | 45.3 | 8.0% | 13.1% | +124.3% | +1% / +158% |
| EGOEldorado Gold Corp | 6.7 bn | 13.6 | 12.4% | 27.9% | +37.5% | +7% / +155% |
| CGAUCenterra Gold Inc. | 4.3 bn | — | -4.7% | -7.4% | +28.8% | +92% / +256% |
| ARISAris Mining Corp | 3.2 bn | 38.3 | 7.0% | 8.4% | +81.7% | +12% / +396% |
| NGNovagold Resources Inc. | 2.7 bn | — | -32.8% | — | unavailable | −40% / +45% |
| AAUCAllied Gold Corporation | 2.5 bn | — | -13.8% | -3.9% | +82.3% | −3% / unavailable |
| EXKEndeavour Silver Corp. | 2.1 bn | — | -22.4% | -25.5% | +114.8% | −21% / +259% |
| HYMCHycroft Mining Holding Corporation | 1.6 bn | — | -72.3% | — | −100.0% | +49% / +716% |
| IAUXi-80 GOLD CORP. | 1.2 bn | — | -81.9% | -202.7% | +89.1% | +18% / −15% |
| NEWPNew Pacific Metals Corp. | 952.3 m | — | -2.8% | — | −19.1% | +101% / +181% |
| MUXMcEWEN INC. | 916.1 m | 12.8 | 13.5% | 32.5% | +13.2% | −20% / +94% |
| MTAMetalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd. | 732.0 m | — | -1.7% | -36.1% | +99.6% | +6% / +145% |
| GROYGold Royalty Corp. | 648.9 m | — | -0.7% | -26.5% | +54.5% | −34% / +86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CGAU from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 23 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (29 Oct 2026), 6-K (30 Sept 2026), 6-K (28 Jul 2026).
In brief
Centerra Gold Inc. is a Canadian gold mining company whose shares are listed on the NYSE and the Toronto Stock Exchange, and its report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 was filed on Form 40-F. The document describes a company that relies on IFRS and NI 43-101 for mineral reserves, which makes its information harder to compare with US companies 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Internal controls over financial reporting were judged effective by management at the end of fiscal 2025, supporting confidence in the financial statements.
- Shares are listed on two major exchanges, the NYSE and the Toronto Stock Exchange, giving access to a broad range of investors.
- The audit is performed by an established firm, KPMG LLP, and the audit committee includes independent directors with financial expertise.
Weaknesses
- Mineral reserve and resource estimates follow Canadian rules, which makes direct comparison with US companies difficult.
- Governance differs in several respects from NYSE rules applicable to US companies, and some charters do not fully cover NYSE requirements.
- The reviewed document contains no operational details on mines, production or costs, which are presented in separate exhibits.
Opportunities
- If the company expands operational reporting in its exhibits, investors could assess business prospects more easily.
- Dual listing on the NYSE and Toronto could support access to capital across more markets.
- Partial harmonisation of reporting with US standards could reduce comparison difficulties for investors.
Threats
- Regulatory differences between Canada and the United States could create confusion for investors comparing the company with other firms.
- Multiple reporting obligations, including those on mine safety, could raise compliance costs.
- Changes to governance rules or accounting standards could require significant adjustments to internal processes.
Risks
- Comparability of mineral reservesmedium
Estimates are prepared under NI 43-101, which differs from SEC rules, making the information harder to compare with US companies.
- Governance differencesmedium
Some committee charters do not include all NYSE requirements, and practices partly follow Canadian rules.
- Multiple reporting obligationsmedium
The company must meet requirements in several jurisdictions, which could raise costs and complexity of compliance.
- Mine safetyhigh
Information on safety incidents and other mining regulatory matters is reported separately, and any issues could affect operations.
- Missing operational detaillow
The main document contains no production or cost figures, so assessing operational risk depends on the separate exhibits.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Effective internal controls and an audit by an established firm could support confidence in the reported figures.
- The NYSE and Toronto listings could give the company access to a broad range of investors and to capital.
- If the operational exhibits confirm solid mining activity, the company could benefit from a clear reporting base.
What would break the thesis
- Reporting differences from US standards could make comparison with other gold miners harder.
- Multiple reporting and governance obligations could raise costs and administrative complexity.
- The lack of operational detail in the main document could make performance hard to judge without the exhibits.
What to watch
- Operational results and production figures in the annual information formnext 10-K
- Management discussion and analysis of financial results for 20262027
- Any changes to governance or committee charters2027
- Mine safety disclosures and regulatory mattersnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 23 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (29 Oct 2026), 6-K (30 Sept 2026), 6-K (28 Jul 2026).
The business
Centerra Gold Inc. reports on Form 40-F, a format that lets Canadian companies file with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, and its financial statements follow International Financial Reporting Standards 1. The document refers to exhibits containing the annual information form, the management discussion and analysis, and audited financial statements for 2025 and 2024, showing a complex reporting structure aimed at investors in several jurisdictions 1. The shares are listed on the NYSE and the Toronto Stock Exchange, and the auditor is KPMG LLP of Toronto 1.
On governance, the company largely follows Canadian practices but applies NYSE rules to the most important areas, and its audit committee is made up of independent directors, several of whom are designated audit committee financial experts 1. Internal controls over financial reporting are described as effective at the end of fiscal 2025, according to management's evaluation 1. This outlines a company operating as a foreign private issuer with reporting obligations under both Canadian and US rules 1.
The document does not describe the products, the mine or production figures in detail; these are presented in the annual information form and the management discussion attached to the form 1. A full view of operations would require those exhibits, which are not included in the source text provided 1.
Segments
Market context
Centerra Gold shares are listed on the NYSE and the Toronto Stock Exchange, placing the company on two markets with different governance and reporting rules 1. As a foreign private issuer it can largely follow Canadian practices but must disclose differences from NYSE standards 1.
The document contains no data on market share, metal prices or direct competition, so the sector analysis must be completed from other sources 1.
Trends
- Reporting under Canadian and US rulesmixed
The company uses Form 40-F and the Canadian NI 43-101 standard, which could make comparison with companies reporting only under SEC rules more difficult 1.
- Governance adapted to NYSE rulesmixed
The audit and compensation committees largely meet NYSE rules, but some charters do not cover all requirements, which could draw investor attention 1.
- Effective internal controlstailwind
Management concluded that internal control over financial reporting was effective at the end of fiscal 2025, a favourable element for the credibility of the financial statements 1.
- US mine-related reporting rulesheadwind
Information on mine safety violations is disclosed separately under Dodd-Frank requirements, adding a further reporting obligation 1.
Competitive position
The source text does not name direct competitors of Centerra Gold, so the competitive analysis must rely on other documents. Comparison with other gold miners is limited by the different mineral reserve reporting rules 1.
Reporting differences from US companies make direct comparisons difficult, because resource information is not comparable under the document's own disclaimer 1.
- Canadian gold mining companies
Not identified in the source text; comparison requires other documents.
- US gold mining companies
Not named in the document reviewed, but their SEC-based reporting makes comparison difficult.
- Foreign private issuers listed on the NYSE
The company falls into this category, but the source gives no list of peers.
- Companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange
The Toronto listing places the company in this group too, without named peers in the source.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 May 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 40-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Centerra Gold Inc. · 23 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.