olivLaw · US equity research
Newmont Corporation NEM
Gold and Silver Ores · SIC 1040 · Vertical: Gold and Silver Ores (SIC 1040)
Newmont is the world's largest gold producer, with operations on several continents and a position that depends heavily on the gold price. It matters now because its 2026 results show a company that keeps its production guidance while returning capital to shareholders, yet remains exposed to political and operational risks in Ghana and in the NGM partnership. Sales in fiscal 2025 reached 22.7 billion USD, and attributable gold production was 5.89 million ounces.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Newmont Corporation (NEM) stock was 118.11 USD (+9.90% on the day), with market capitalisation 122.7 bn USD, P/E 13.7 on diluted EPS of 8.60 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.87%, beta 0.92, 52-week range 81.63–135.14 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 6.4 bn USD (+15.2% YoY), net income of 2.5 bn USD (+35.1% YoY), diluted EPS 2.35 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 54.8
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 106.40 – 121.31
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.79 · band width 13.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 119.36 / 112.38
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -1.89 / -2.03
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.0% | −1.1% | +3.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | +13.3% | −0.5% | +13.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +2.6% | +4.4% | −1.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +18.3% | +12.3% | +6.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +49.7% | +13.5% | +36.2 pp | −11.8% |
| 3 years | +202.7% | +76.4% | +126.3 pp | +142.0% |
| 5 years | +109.6% | +63.7% | +45.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.7 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.5 bn | 6.8 bn | 7.3 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.4 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 2.4 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn |
| Research & development | 48.0 m | 43.0 m | 40.0 m | 40.0 m | 43.0 m | 45.0 m | 47.0 m | 58.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 689.0 m | 593.0 m | 620.0 m | 643.0 m | 665.0 m | 632.0 m | 604.0 m | 632.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 2.1 bn | 2.5 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.5 bn | 3.2 bn | 4.6 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn |
| Income tax | 702.0 m | 647.0 m | 1.1 bn | 787.0 m | 2.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 952.0 m | 839.0 m |
| Net income | 1.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.3 bn | 3.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.5 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 1.23 ≈ | 1.68 | 1.85 | 1.67 | 1.19 ≈ | 3.00 | 2.06 | 2.35 |
| Operating cash flow | 2.5 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.4 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | 3.6 bn | 3.8 bn | 2.9 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 875.0 m | 826.0 m | 674.0 m | 727.0 m | 808.0 m | 641.0 m | 719.0 m | 856.0 m |
| Dividends paid | 282.0 m | 282.0 m | 279.0 m ≈ | 273.0 m ≈ | 272.0 m | 282.0 m | 277.0 m ≈ | 272.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 798.0 m | 348.0 m | 1.0 bn ≈ | 516.0 m ≈ | 428.0 m | 1.9 bn | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 34 percentile of its own 29-quarter history (min 10.5, median 18.9, max 652.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.3 bn | 9.7 bn | 11.5 bn | 12.2 bn | 11.9 bn | 11.8 bn | 18.7 bn | 22.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −1.7% | +34.3% | +18.0% | +6.3% | −2.5% | −0.9% | +58.2% | +21.3% |
| Net income | 341.0 m | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 1.2 bn | -429.0 m | -2.5 bn | 3.3 bn | 7.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +722.6% | +0.9% | −58.8% | −136.8% | unavailable | unavailable | +111.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.64 | 3.81 | 3.51 | 1.46 | -0.54 | -2.97 | 2.92 | 6.39 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +495.3% | −7.9% | −58.4% | −137.0% | unavailable | unavailable | +118.8% |
| net % | 4.7% | 28.8% | 24.6% | 9.5% | -3.6% | -21.1% | 17.9% | 31.3% |
| Free cash flow | 795.0 m | 1.4 bn | 3.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 1.1 bn | 97.0 m | 3.0 bn | 7.3 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 7.6 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 5.1 bn USD
- Net debt
- -2.5 bn USD
- Equity
- 34.0 bn USD
- Total assets
- 57.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.15x
- Current ratio
- 2.29x
- ROE
- 22.1%
- ROA
- 12.5%
- FCF margin
- 32.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11.5 bn | 12.2 bn | 11.9 bn | 11.8 bn | 18.7 bn | 22.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 5.0 bn | 5.4 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.7 bn | 9.0 bn | 8.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 6.5 bn ≈ | 6.8 bn ≈ | 5.4 bn ≈ | 5.1 bn ≈ | 9.7 bn ≈ | 14.6 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived |
| Research & development | 122.0 m | 154.0 m | 229.0 m | 200.0 m | 197.0 m | 166.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 3.1 bn | 1.1 bn | -51.0 m | -2.0 bn | 4.6 bn | 11.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 704.0 m | 1.1 bn | 455.0 m | 526.0 m | 1.4 bn | 4.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 2.8 bn | 1.2 bn | -429.0 m | -2.5 bn | 3.3 bn | 7.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 3.51 | 1.46 | -0.54 | -2.97 | 2.92 | 6.39 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 806.0 m | 801.0 m | 795.0 m | 841.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.04 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 5.5 bn | 5.0 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.6 bn | 7.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 449.0 m | 337.0 m | 366.0 m | 734.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 8.5 bn | 7.7 bn | 6.5 bn | 7.5 bn | 12.3 bn | 13.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 24.3 bn | 24.1 bn | 24.1 bn | 37.6 bn | 33.5 bn | — | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 41.4 bn | 40.6 bn | 38.5 bn | 55.5 bn | 56.3 bn | 57.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 493.0 m | 518.0 m | 633.0 m | 960.0 m | 843.0 m | 816.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 551.0 m | 87.0 m | 0 | 1.9 bn | 924.0 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 5.5 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.6 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.6 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 3.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 6.0 bn | 7.5 bn | 5.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 17.5 bn | 18.7 bn | 18.9 bn | 26.3 bn | 26.2 bn | 23.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 23.8 bn | 21.8 bn | 19.5 bn | 29.2 bn | 30.1 bn | 34.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 4.9 bn | 4.3 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.8 bn | 6.4 bn | 10.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 3.6 bn ≈ | 2.6 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 97.0 m ≈ | 3.0 bn ≈ | 7.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 91.0 m | -1.9 bn | -3.0 bn | -1.0 bn | -2.7 bn | 606.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.7 bn | -3.0 bn | -2.4 bn | -1.6 bn | -3.0 bn | -7.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 834.0 m | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 521.0 m | 525.0 m | 0 | 0 | 1.2 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 122.7 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
54% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 117.79 – 277.17 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E117.79 – 277.17 (Mid 139.38)17 companies used · median multiple 16.2x · quartiles 13.7x – 32.2xAEM, AG, AGI, ARIS, AU, B, CDE, EGO, EQX, FNV, GFI, IDR, KGC, MUX, NAMM, PAAS, VOXR
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate13.14 – 17.67 (Mid 15.07)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 34.7% | 81 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 109.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 23.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 13.7x | 72 (vs peers) | 19% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 8.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.5% | 79 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 10.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality91/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns87/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation85/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NEWMONT CORPORATION (NEM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 22.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 21.3%; net margin 34.7%; ROE 26.8%.
The estimated value range is 117.79–277.17 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 139.38 USD, the price of 118.11 USD leaves a potential of 18.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 15.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 34.7%
- FCF conversion: 109.0%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 23.9%
- Current ratio: 2.5x
- P/E (TTM): 13.7x
- FCF yield: 8.2%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.5%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 10.9%
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Gold and Silver Ores (SIC 1040) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEMNewmont Corporation | 122.7 bn | 13.7 | 26.8% | 34.7% | +21.3% | +50% / +203% |
| AEMAgnico Eagle Mines Limited | 91.7 bn | 20.7 | 19.6% | 37.5% | +43.7% | +5% / +242% |
| BBarrick Mining Corp | 67.2 bn | 13.7 | 19.6% | 29.4% | +31.2% | −3% / +128% |
| FNVFRANCO NEVADA Corp | 46.7 bn | 42.0 | 16.3% | 61.0% | +63.7% | +15% / +116% |
| AUAngloGold Ashanti plc | 44.4 bn | 17.0 | 43.1% | 32.1% | +70.8% | +3% / +357% |
| GFIGold Fields Limited | 32.9 bn | 26.6 | 25.7% | 23.9% | +15.6% | −14% / +140% |
| KGCKinross Gold Corp | 25.7 bn | 11.0 | 31.0% | 33.9% | +36.9% | −24% / +264% |
| PAASPan American Silver Corp. | 17.5 bn | 16.2 | 16.8% | 27.1% | +28.4% | −9% / +165% |
| CDECoeur Mining, Inc. | 14.9 bn | 16.0 | 10.3% | 19.2% | +96.4% | −16% / +378% |
| AGIAlamos Gold Inc. | 12.6 bn | 14.3 | 22.1% | 49.0% | +34.3% | −20% / +103% |
| HMYHarmony Gold Mining Company Limited | 10.4 bn | — | — | — | +25.8% | −17% / +163% |
| EQXEquinox Gold Corp. | 8.9 bn | 32.2 | 4.8% | 12.2% | +99.1% | −19% / +106% |
| AGFirst Majestic Silver Corp. | 7.6 bn | 45.3 | 8.0% | 13.1% | +124.3% | +1% / +158% |
| EGOEldorado Gold Corp | 6.7 bn | 13.6 | 12.4% | 27.9% | +37.5% | +7% / +155% |
| CGAUCenterra Gold Inc. | 4.3 bn | — | -4.7% | -7.4% | +28.8% | +61% / +249% |
| ARISAris Mining Corp | 3.2 bn | 38.3 | 7.0% | 8.4% | +81.7% | +12% / +396% |
| NGNovagold Resources Inc. | 2.7 bn | — | -32.8% | — | unavailable | −40% / +45% |
| AAUCAllied Gold Corporation | 2.5 bn | — | -13.8% | -3.9% | +82.3% | −3% / unavailable |
| EXKEndeavour Silver Corp. | 2.1 bn | — | -22.4% | -25.5% | +114.8% | −21% / +259% |
| HYMCHycroft Mining Holding Corporation | 1.6 bn | — | -72.3% | — | −100.0% | +49% / +716% |
| IAUXi-80 GOLD CORP. | 1.2 bn | — | -81.9% | -202.7% | +89.1% | +18% / −15% |
| NEWPNew Pacific Metals Corp. | 952.3 m | — | -2.8% | — | −19.1% | +101% / +181% |
| MUXMcEWEN INC. | 916.1 m | 12.8 | 13.5% | 32.5% | +13.2% | −20% / +94% |
| MTAMetalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd. | 732.0 m | — | -1.7% | -36.1% | +99.6% | +6% / +145% |
| GROYGold Royalty Corp. | 648.9 m | — | -0.7% | -26.5% | +54.5% | −34% / +86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NEM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 79.80 Total return -32% · Per year -32% | 140.43 Total return 20% · Per year 20% | 210.64 Total return 80% · Per year 80% |
| 3 years | 94.65 Total return -17% · Per year -6% | 185.72 Total return 61% · Per year 17% | 303.33 Total return 161% · Per year 38% |
| 5 years | 112.27 Total return -0% · Per year -0% | 245.61 Total return 115% · Per year 17% | 436.79 Total return 279% · Per year 31% |
- Exit P/E± 46.43
- Net margin± 32.50
- Annual revenue growth± 24.24
- Annual dilution± 2.73
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Newmont is the world's largest gold producer, with operations on several continents and a position that depends heavily on the gold price. It matters now because its 2026 results show a company that keeps its production guidance while returning capital to shareholders, yet remains exposed to political and operational risks in Ghana and in the NGM partnership. Sales in fiscal 2025 reached 22.7 billion USD 1, and attributable gold production was 5.89 million ounces 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company is the largest gold producer and the only gold company included in the S&P 500 index 1. Its diversified portfolio and net cash position give it flexibility 3.
- High free cash flow, combined with a structured buyback and dividend programme, supports the return of capital to shareholders 3.
- The company keeps its reputation as a sustainability and governance leader, being included in industry benchmark indices 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on the gold price is high, and the company does not hedge its metal sales 1.
- Joint-venture operations such as NGM depend on a partner that controls day-to-day management, which has produced serious disputes 2.
- The temporary suspension of operations at Cadia after seismic activity shows exposure to natural events at some sites 3.
Opportunities
Risks
- Exposure to metal priceshigh
Revenues depend on gold, copper, silver, lead and zinc prices, which are volatile, and the company does not hedge these fluctuations 1.
- Disputes at NGMhigh
The company identified mismanagement at the NGM joint venture and sent a notice of default, and the disputes could materially affect the company 12.
- Ghana fiscal riskmedium
Royalties, taxes and growth levies can be changed, and this could raise operating costs in Ghana 2.
- Reserve and resource estimatesmedium
Reserve and resource estimates are uncertain, and projects may cost more or return less than estimated 1.
- Operational and seismic eventslow
Seismic activity led to a temporary suspension of operations at Cadia, showing that unforeseen events can affect output 3.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the gold price stays high and costs remain under control, free cash flow could keep supporting buybacks and dividends 3.
- The leading position in gold production and a net cash balance sheet give the company an advantage in funding growth projects 3.
- Resolving the disputes with Barrick and the contribution of assets into NGM could clarify ownership structure and could bring gains 2.
What would break the thesis
- If the gold price falls, revenues and cash flow could drop quickly, since there is no hedging in place 1.
- New taxes and royalties in Ghana could cut margins in one of the main production areas 2.
- Prolonged disputes with the NGM partner could affect asset management and could create extra legal costs 12.
What to watch
- 2026 production and cost guidance compared with quarterly resultsQ4 2026
- Final investment decision on the Red Chris Block Caveearly 2027
- Completion of the NGM asset contribution and the payment to BarrickQ4 2026
- Effects of the Ghana royalty regime on operating costs2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Newmont Corporation, headquartered in Denver, Colorado, is primarily a gold producer but also produces copper, silver, lead and zinc 1. At December 31, 2025 it held attributable proven and probable gold reserves of 118.2 million ounces 1. The Newcrest acquisition in November 2023 expanded the portfolio, and the divestiture programme removed assets considered non-core 1.
Operations span several countries, including the United States, Papua New Guinea, Australia, Ghana, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Peru and Canada 1. The company describes itself as the world's leading gold company, but it does not control all assets alone, since a significant part of production comes from joint ventures.
Sales are dominated by gold, which accounted for 85% of the total in fiscal 2025 1. Most sales are of refined gold, although mining generally produces doré, an alloy sent to refiners 1.
Segments
Gold
Gold sales were 19.3 billion USD in fiscal 2025 1, with the remaining sales coming from copper, silver, lead and zinc. Gold is also the main driver of margins, judging by the per-ounce cost figures reported for 2026 3.
NGM and new projects
Nevada Gold Mines is a joint venture in which Newmont holds 38.5% 1. In August 2026 the parties amended the agreement, and the proposed contribution of development properties could produce a gain for Newmont 2. The Red Chris Block Cave project is targeted for a full-funds investment decision in early 2027 3.
Market context
Trends
- High gold pricestailwind
Price gains lifted revenues and profits in fiscal 2025 1. If prices stay high, margins could continue to support the company's cash flow.
- Price volatilityheadwind
The price history shows large swings, and a prolonged decline could reduce economically viable reserves and could delay new projects 1. This uncertainty is an important factor in assessing the company.
- Ghana fiscal regimeheadwind
The expiry of Ghana's stability agreement brought higher taxes and royalties, and the company later reported a new royalty structure 2. These changes could raise operating costs, especially when the gold price is high.
- Share count reductionmixed
Share repurchases have cut the share count by roughly 10% since February 2024 3, which may increase shareholders' exposure to free cash flow per share. The effect depends on the programme continuing and on board decisions.
Competitive position
The market is fragmented, and competition for attractive mining properties is intense 1. Maintaining its position over the long term depends on acquiring and developing good deposits, retaining a skilled workforce and managing costs 1.
- Barrick Mining CorporationB
Partner in the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, where Barrick runs the assets; relations between the two companies were strained in 2026 12.
- Lundin Gold Inc.
Operator of the Fruta del Norte mine, in which Newmont holds an interest accounted for under the equity method 1.
- Top ten gold producers
The largest ten gold producers in the world control a significant share of world output, but the sources do not identify them individually 1.
- Regional gold operators
Smaller companies in the jurisdictions where Newmont operates may compete for the same properties and workforce, though the sources do not list them 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Why Newmont Stock Just PoppedYahoo Finance — News · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- Is Newmont Stock Outperforming the Nasdaq?Yahoo Finance — News · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Gold Miner Newmont Eclipses Gold's Rally Thanks To A Dual Growth EngineYahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
- Barrick Mining (B) Has an IPO Catalyst. Newmont Corporation (NEM) Has the Cash. Which Gold Stock Wins?Yahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
- Newmont Shares Shine on Production, Record Free Cash FlowYahoo Finance — News · 26 Aug 2026 · EN
- Newmont (NEM) Faces Gold Above $4,500. Will Rising Costs Dilute the Windfall?Yahoo Finance — News · 25 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 17 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 22 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report22 Oct 2026
- Current report22 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report13 Aug 2026Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report23 Jul 2026
- Current report23 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report28 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report23 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Newmont Corporation · 19 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Newmont Corporation · 22 Oct 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Newmont Corporation · 22 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.