olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

Kinross Gold Corporation KGC

Gold and Silver Ores · SIC 1040 · Vertical: Gold and Silver Ores (SIC 1040)

21.42USD+7.48% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Kinross Gold Corporation is a Canadian gold producer listed in Toronto and New York that filed its 2025 annual report on Form 40-F. The filing shows effective internal control over financial reporting and a stated share buyback target for 2026.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) stock was 21.42 USD (+7.48% on the day), with market capitalisation 25.7 bn USD, P/E 11.0 on diluted EPS of 1.95 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.93, 52-week range 19.93–38.07 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
25.7 bn USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
11.0
Diluted EPS TTM 1.95 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
9.10%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.93
Volatility (1y) 55%
52-week range
19.9338.07

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
40.3
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
20.13 – 25.11
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.26 · band width 22.0%
SMA 50 / 200
25.70 / 28.66
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-1.24 / -1.14
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−9.2%−1.1%−8.1 pp—
3 months−16.7%−0.5%−16.2 pp—
6 months−30.4%+4.4%−34.8 pp—
Year to date−23.9%+12.3%−36.3 pp—
1 year−4.7%+13.5%−18.2 pp−5.2%
3 years+285.9%+76.4%+209.5 pp+145.9%
5 years+244.9%+63.7%+181.3 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−47.6%
28 Jan 2026 → 03 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−56.0%
15 Nov 2021 → 15 Jul 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+28.1%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 29 percentile of its own 7-quarter history (min 6.9, median 12.3, max 34.2; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year201820192020⚠ 20212022202320242025
Revenue3.2 bn3.5 bn4.2 bn2.6 bn3.5 bn4.2 bn5.1 bn7.1 bn
Revenue YoY−2.7%+8.9%+20.5%—+32.9%+22.7%+21.4%+36.9%
Net income-23.6 m718.6 m1.3 bn221.2 m-605.2 m416.3 m948.8 m2.4 bn
Net income YoY−105.3%unavailable+86.8%—−373.6%unavailable+127.9%+151.9%
Diluted EPS-0.020.571.060.17-0.470.340.771.95
Diluted EPS YoY−105.7%unavailable+86.0%—−376.5%unavailable+126.5%+153.2%
net %-0.7%20.5%31.9%8.5%-17.5%9.8%18.4%33.9%
Free cash flow-254.7 m164.7 m1.0 bn313.5 munavailable507.0 m1.4 bn2.6 bn

The series breaks before 2021: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
1.7 bn USD
Financial debt
738.2 m USD
Net debt
-1.0 bn USD
Equity
8.7 bn USD
Total assets
12.4 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.08x
Current ratio
2.35x
ROE
30.5%
ROA
20.5%
FCF margin
36.4%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
4.2 bn
2024
5.1 bn
2025
7.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
3.1 bn
2024
3.3 bn
2025
3.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
3.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
801.4 m
2024
1.5 bn
2025
3.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
986.8 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
1.8 bn ≈
2024
2.7 bn ≈
2025
4.4 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
106.0 m
2024
91.4 m
2025
131.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
708.6 m
2024
1.5 bn
2025
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
293.2 m
2024
487.4 m
2025
724.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
416.3 m
2024
948.8 m
2025
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.34
2024
0.77
2025
1.95

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
352.4 m
2024
611.5 m
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
58.5 m
2024
52.6 m
2025
30.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
1.8 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
3.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
8.0 bn
2024
8.0 bn
2025
8.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2022verified

Total assets
2023
10.5 bn
2024
10.9 bn
2025
12.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
531.5 m
2024
543.0 m
2025
716.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
199.9 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2025verified

Long-term debt
2023
2.2 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
738.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
685.5 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
4.4 bn
2024
3.9 bn
2025
3.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
6.2 bn
2024
7.0 bn
2025
8.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
1.6 bn
2024
2.4 bn
2025
3.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
507.0 m ≈
2024
1.4 bn ≈
2025
2.6 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2022verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-549.0 m
2024
-1.0 bn
2025
-1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
—
2024
—
2025
600.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
36.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
26.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
10.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
112.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
151.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
12.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
153.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
13.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
87.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
52.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBITDA margin
62.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBIT margin
46.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net margin
33.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF margin
36.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Returns

ROE
31.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROA
20.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROIC
32.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROCE
29.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-1.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Debt / equity
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Interest coverage
25.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Quick ratio
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Cash

Operating cash flow
3.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Capital expenditure
1.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
2.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF conversion
107.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Cash conversion
85.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
2 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days inventory outstanding
143 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days payables outstanding
69 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash conversion cycle
76 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
25.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Enterprise value
24.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Market cap / net income TTM
10.8x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/E (TTM)
11.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Earnings yield
9.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
3.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/S
3.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
5.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBIT
7.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/Sales
3.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/FCF
10.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
FCF yield
10.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing
Shareholder yield (distributions)
2.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Risk

Altman Z
5.10
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Attractive profile

Score: 84 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']

Closing price

21.42 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 25.7 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
25.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
11.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
3.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
5.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROE
31.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net margin
33.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
36.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2025
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2025
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Dec 2025
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 26 Mar 2026
verified 308

Score by group

  • Valuation91
  • Balance sheet75
  • Quality89
  • Growth100
  • Returns33

Estimated value range

Low
28.18
USD per share
Mid
38.81
USD per share
High
58.09
USD per share
Price: 21.42 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 81.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 44.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 26.73 – 61.20 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)38.06 – 58.09 (Mid 45.83)
    WACC 9.2% · starting FCFF 2.7 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -18.0%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA28.18 – 46.56 (Mid 38.81)
    7 companies used · median multiple 10.4x · quartiles 7.5x – 12.5x
    CDE, EGO, EQX, EXK, IDR, ITRG, MUX
  • Peers: P/E26.73 – 61.20 (Mid 32.14)
    18 companies used · median multiple 16.5x · quartiles 13.7x – 31.4x
    AEM, AGI, ARIS, AU, B, CDE, EGO, EQX, FNV, FSM, GFI, IDR, MUX, NAMM, NEM, TII, VOXR, WPM
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Gold and Silver Ores (SIC 1040)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Attractive profile · Score 84/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality32.7%93 (vs peers)12%
Net margin · Quality33.9%73 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality107.4%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth26.8%100 (on a fixed band)10%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.2x50 (vs peers)12%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet25.0x100 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.3x100 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation11.0x89 (vs peers)12%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation5.6x86 (vs peers)12%
FCF yield · Valuation10.0%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns2.3%33 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet75/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality89/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial33/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation91/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

KINROSS GOLD CORP (KGC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 7.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 36.9%; net margin 33.9%; ROE 31.0%; net debt/EBITDA -0.2x.

The estimated value range is 28.18–58.09 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 38.81 USD, the price of 21.42 USD leaves a potential of 81.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 44.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 84/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 32.7%
  • Net margin: 33.9%
  • FCF conversion: 107.4%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 26.8%
  • Interest coverage: 25.0x
  • Current ratio: 2.3x
  • P/E (TTM): 11.0x
  • EV/EBITDA: 5.6x
  • FCF yield: 10.0%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Gold and Silver Ores (SIC 1040) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
11.0x
vertical median 17.0x
below median (−35.3%)
EV/EBITDA
5.6x
vertical median 10.4x
below median (−45.8%)
P/S
3.6x
vertical median 4.6x
below median (−19.9%)
P/B
3.0x
vertical median 3.3x
below median (−8.9%)
ROE
31.0%
vertical median 5.9%
above median (+424.9%)
Net margin
33.9%
vertical median 19.2%
above median (+76.1%)
EBIT margin
46.5%
vertical median 25.2%
above median (+84.4%)
Revenue YoY
36.9%
vertical median 39.8%
below median (−7.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.2x
vertical median 0.1x
below median (−363.3%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 0.7%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
NEMNewmont Corporation122.7 bn13.726.8%34.7%+21.3%+30% / +194%
AEMAgnico Eagle Mines Limited91.7 bn20.719.6%37.5%+43.7%+5% / +242%
BBarrick Mining Corp67.2 bn13.719.6%29.4%+31.2%−3% / +128%
WPMWheaton Precious Metals Corp.59.7 bn40.618.5%63.6%+80.2%+19% / +169%
FNVFRANCO NEVADA Corp46.7 bn42.016.3%61.0%+63.7%+15% / +116%
AUAngloGold Ashanti plc44.4 bn17.043.1%32.1%+70.8%+3% / +357%
GFIGold Fields Limited32.9 bn26.625.7%23.9%+15.6%−14% / +140%
KGCKinross Gold Corp25.7 bn11.031.0%33.9%+36.9%−5% / +286%
CDECoeur Mining, Inc.14.9 bn16.010.3%19.2%+96.4%−16% / +378%
AGIAlamos Gold Inc.12.6 bn14.322.1%49.0%+34.3%−20% / +103%
HMYHarmony Gold Mining Company Limited10.4 bn———+25.8%−17% / +163%
EQXEquinox Gold Corp.8.9 bn32.24.8%12.2%+99.1%−19% / +106%
EGOEldorado Gold Corp6.7 bn13.612.4%27.9%+37.5%+7% / +155%
CGAUCenterra Gold Inc.4.3 bn—-4.7%-7.4%+28.8%+61% / +249%
ARISAris Mining Corp3.2 bn38.37.0%8.4%+81.7%+12% / +396%
FSMFortuna Mining Corp.2.9 bn10.718.7%30.4%+39.8%−5% / +146%
NGNovagold Resources Inc.2.7 bn—-32.8%—unavailable−40% / +45%
AAUCAllied Gold Corporation2.5 bn—-13.8%-3.9%+82.3%−3% / unavailable
EXKEndeavour Silver Corp.2.1 bn—-22.4%-25.5%+114.8%−21% / +259%
HYMCHycroft Mining Holding Corporation1.6 bn—-72.3%—−100.0%+49% / +716%
IAUXi-80 GOLD CORP.1.2 bn—-81.9%-202.7%+89.1%+18% / −15%
NEWPNew Pacific Metals Corp.952.3 m—-2.8%—−19.1%+101% / +181%
MUXMcEWEN INC.916.1 m12.813.5%32.5%+13.2%−20% / +94%
GROYGold Royalty Corp.648.9 m—-0.7%-26.5%+54.5%−34% / +86%
OGGOsisko Development Corp.602.0 m—-27.0%-476.4%+678.0%−33% / −17%

1- and 3-year price returns: for KGC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
14.30
Total return -33% · Per year -33%
25.16
Total return 17% · Per year 17%
37.75
Total return 76% · Per year 76%
3 years
16.96
Total return -21% · Per year -7%
33.28
Total return 55% · Per year 16%
54.35
Total return 154% · Per year 36%
5 years
20.12
Total return -6% · Per year -1%
44.01
Total return 105% · Per year 15%
78.27
Total return 265% · Per year 30%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 8.32
  • Net margin± 5.82
  • Annual revenue growth± 4.34
  • Annual dilution± 0.49

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 26 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (06 Oct 2026), 6-K (24 Sept 2026), 6-K (06 Aug 2026).

In brief

Kinross Gold Corporation is a Canadian gold producer listed in Toronto and New York that filed its 2025 annual report on Form 40-F. The filing shows effective internal control over financial reporting and a stated share buyback target for 2026.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company reports effective internal control and an independent audit function with a recognised external auditor 1.
  • Dual listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange gives access to two major capital markets 1.
  • The portfolio includes several development and exploration projects that could support longer-term production growth 1.

Weaknesses

  • The financial statements follow IFRS, so the figures are not directly comparable with those of US companies 1.
  • Operations depend on a few projects and permitting timelines that could slip 1.
  • The company operates in several jurisdictions, which increases tax and compliance complexity 1.

Opportunities

  • Development of Phase X, Curlew, Redbird 2 and Great Bear could extend mine life and output 1.
  • Converting resources into reserves could extend the life of existing mines 1.
  • The planned 2026 buybacks could raise returns to shareholders if cash flow holds 1.

Threats

  • A fall in gold or silver prices could sharply reduce revenue and cash flow 1.
  • Changes in taxes, royalties or regulation could weigh on returns in certain countries 1.
  • Industrial incidents, environmental risks and litigation could generate unforeseen costs 1.

Risks

  • Metal price volatilityhigh

    The filing stresses that the gold and silver price is a key driver of results and of the company's valuation 1. Sharp swings could directly affect margins and buyback plans.

  • Currency riskmedium

    The document cites currency market fluctuations as a factor that can influence results 1. Operations in several countries could expose the company to significant exchange effects.

  • Tax and regulatory riskhigh

    The filing lists income taxes, export duties and royalties among factors that can change cash flows 1. Political shifts could affect projects in certain countries.

  • Operational and environmental riskmedium

    The document describes mining hazards such as industrial accidents, flooding and metal losses, along with the limits of insurance 1. These could generate significant costs.

  • Permit and title riskmedium

    The filing mentions the difficulty of obtaining and keeping licences and permits, and disputes over property title 1. Delays could affect project timelines.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If gold and silver prices stay favourable, cash flow could support both dividends and the buybacks announced for 2026 1.
  • Projects under development could expand production and mine life if they meet their schedules 1.
  • Effective internal control and independent audit could reduce the risk of reporting errors 1.

What would break the thesis

  • A fall in metal prices could quickly erode margins and the capacity to fund planned buybacks 1.
  • Tax or regulatory changes in the countries where the company operates could reduce project returns 1.
  • Operational and environmental risks, along with the limits of insurance, could generate unforeseen costs 1.

What to watch

  • Evolution of the gold and silver price and its effect on free cash flow2026
  • Progress of share buybacks and the dividend policy2026
  • Permitting and execution timelines for Phase X, Curlew, Redbird 2 and Great Bearnext 40-F
  • Tax and regulatory changes in the countries of operationnext 40-F

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 26 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (06 Oct 2026), 6-K (24 Sept 2026), 6-K (06 Aug 2026).

The business

According to the Form 40-F 1, Kinross Gold Corporation prepares its consolidated financial statements under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), and its shares are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange. The company operates in several countries, including Canada, the United States, Chile, Brazil and Mauritania, as listed in the forward-looking statements of document 1. The filing describes gold and silver mining, development and exploration, including projects such as Great Bear, Phase X, Curlew and Redbird 2.

The filing states that governance and audit oversight rest with an audit and risk committee of five independent directors, and that the external auditor is KPMG LLP of Toronto 1. Management concluded that internal control over financial reporting was effective as of 31 December 2025, with no material weaknesses identified 1.

The company has set a target for 2026 share buybacks equal to a share of attributable free cash flow, and statements on dividends and capital returns to shareholders form part of its strategy 1. The filing stresses that these estimates are subject to market and operational uncertainties.

Segments

Gold mining

The main segment described in the filing 1 is gold mining, the company's core activity. The filing includes guidance on production, production costs and all-in sustaining costs, but the exact figures are presented in the MD&A annexes rather than the main body.

Project development

The filing mentions the development projects Phase X, Curlew, Redbird 2 and Great Bear, for which economics and mine life impacts are forecast 1. These projects could change the production profile if they meet their permitting and execution timelines.

Exploration

The company includes exploration budgets in its plans to add reserves and resources, and the filing notes the possibility of converting resources into reserves 1. This remains a speculative part of the business with uncertain results.

Market context

The filing 1 identifies the gold and silver price as a principal driver of financial results, alongside currency rates and energy and fuel costs. The excerpt provided does not contain detailed market data, so the sector analysis rests on the factors the company lists.

The company operates in a regulated sector where taxes, royalties and environmental permits directly influence margins, as enumerated in the risk section 1. Competitive positioning and market share are not detailed in the excerpt provided.

Competitive position

The document notes that market valuations of comparable gold producers influence the market price to net asset value multiples 1. The company's competitive position therefore depends on the relative performance of these producers.

  • Gold producers listed in the US and Canada

    The filing 1 refers to comparable gold-sector companies without naming them in the excerpt provided.

  • Canadian gold producers

    The filing 1 refers to the gold producer peer group without specific names.

  • Silver producers

    Silver appears as a product in the filing 1, which also places the company among silver producers, with no names given.

  • Gold exploration companies

    The exploration activity described in the filing 1 exposes the company to competition for new projects and licences.

News & filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 40-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Kinross Gold Corporation · 26 Mar 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.