olivLaw · US equity research
Carter's, Inc. CRI
Apparel & Other Finishd Prods of Fabrics & Similar Matl · SIC 2300 · Vertical: Apparel & Other Finishd Prods of Fabrics & Similar Matl (SIC 2300)
Carter's is North America's largest apparel company exclusively for babies and young children, selling through company stores, eCommerce and wholesale channels under brands including Carter's, OshKosh, Skip Hop and Little Planet. The company is in a restructuring phase under pressure from import tariffs, and its recent quarterly results show partial recovery in a large core market of about $29 billion.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Carter's, Inc. (CRI) stock was 33.62 USD (+7.38% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.2 bn USD, P/E 5.5 on diluted EPS of 6.07 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.97%, beta 1.19, 52-week range 28.54–44.37 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2027): revenue of 752.5 m USD (−0.7% YoY), net income of 36.6 m USD (+215.8% YoY), diluted EPS 1.00 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 55.6
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 30.59 – 33.96
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.90 · band width 10.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 31.83 / 36.19
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.00 / -0.04
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +4.0% | −1.1% | +5.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −15.8% | −0.5% | −15.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −9.7% | +4.4% | −14.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +3.7% | +12.3% | −8.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +13.2% | +13.5% | −0.3 pp | +10.9% |
| 3 years | −52.2% | +76.4% | −128.6 pp | +16.8% |
| 5 years | −67.7% | +63.7% | −131.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2027 · 03 Oct 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 | Q3 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 859.7 m | 629.8 m | 585.3 m | 757.8 m | 925.5 m | 681.1 m | 615.5 m | 752.5 m |
| Cost of revenue | — | — | 303.6 m | 416.2 m | — | — | 202.9 m | 397.7 m |
| Gross profit | 411.0 m | 291.1 m | 281.8 m | 341.6 m | 400.2 m | 293.9 m | 412.6 m | 354.8 m |
| SG&A | 302.1 m | 270.3 m | 281.0 m | 318.0 m | 319.6 m | 270.0 m | 276.1 m | 304.2 m |
| Operating income | 83.2 m | 26.1 m | 4.0 m | 29.1 m | 84.7 m | 28.4 m | 139.8 m | 55.8 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 13.3 m | 12.3 m | 12.6 m ≈ | 12.8 m ≈ | 13.7 m | 12.7 m | 12.1 m ≈ | 11.9 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 8.2 m | 7.8 m | 7.9 m | 7.2 m | 11.4 m | 11.8 m | 11.3 m | 11.8 m |
| Pre-tax income | 75.8 m | 21.3 m | 1.7 m | 14.8 m | 75.9 m | 19.9 m | 136.6 m | 48.4 m |
| Income tax | 14.3 m | 5.8 m | 1.3 m | 3.2 m | 11.7 m | 5.5 m | 31.7 m | 11.8 m |
| Net income | 61.5 m | 15.5 m | 446.0 k | 11.6 m | 64.2 m | 14.3 m | 105.0 m | 36.6 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.75 ≈ | 0.43 | 0.01 | 0.32 | 1.81 ≈ | 0.39 | 2.87 | 1.00 |
| Operating cash flow | 287.5 m | -48.6 m | 40.3 m ≈ | -128.0 m ≈ | 258.6 m | 6.4 m | 195.9 m ≈ | -100.5 m ≈ |
| Capex | 16.5 m | 10.3 m | 16.2 m ≈ | 16.1 m ≈ | 11.0 m | 7.0 m | 5.8 m ≈ | 16.9 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 28.8 m | 29.0 m | 9.1 m ≈ | 9.1 m ≈ | 9.1 m | 9.2 m | 9.1 m ≈ | 9.1 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | — | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 3 percentile of its own 30-quarter history (min 5.2, median 13.8, max 37.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +6.3% | +1.8% | +1.6% | unavailable | +6.2% | −8.3% | −3.4% | unavailable |
| Net income | 302.8 m | 282.1 m | 263.8 m | 109.7 m | 250.0 m | 232.5 m | 185.5 m | 91.8 m |
| Net income YoY | +17.5% | −6.9% | −6.5% | unavailable | +127.9% | −7.0% | −20.2% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 6.24 | 6.00 | 5.85 | 2.50 | 6.34 | 6.24 | 5.12 | 2.53 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +22.8% | −3.8% | −2.5% | unavailable | +153.6% | −1.6% | −17.9% | unavailable |
| net % | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 3.2% |
| Free cash flow | 260.1 m | 292.4 m | 325.8 m | 555.6 m | 48.0 m | 469.3 m | 242.6 m | 68.6 m |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 03 Jan 2026
- Cash
- 487.1 m USD
- Financial debt
- 567.2 m USD
- Net debt
- 80.1 m USD
- Equity
- 925.0 m USD
- Total assets
- 2.6 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.61x
- Current ratio
- 2.51x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 3.6%
- FCF margin
- 2.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.5 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.0 bn | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2020verified |
| Gross profit | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 371.9 m | 189.9 m | 379.2 m | 323.4 m | 254.7 m | 143.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 92.2 m | 90.3 m | 61.5 m | 60.4 m | 54.2 m | 51.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 464.1 m ≈ | 280.2 m ≈ | 440.7 m ≈ | 383.8 m ≈ | 309.0 m ≈ | 195.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 37.6 m | 56.1 m | 42.8 m | 34.0 m | 31.3 m | 34.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 328.0 m | 135.0 m | 316.7 m | 302.2 m | 230.8 m | 113.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 64.2 m | 25.3 m | 66.7 m | 69.7 m | 45.3 m | 22.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 263.8 m | 109.7 m | 250.0 m | 232.5 m | 185.5 m | 91.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 5.85 | 2.50 | 6.34 | 6.24 | 5.12 | 2.53 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 44.7 m | 43.4 m | 38.9 m | 36.6 m | 35.5 m | 35.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.00 | 0.60 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.20 | 1.55 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 214.3 m | 1.1 bn | 211.7 m | 351.2 m | 412.9 m | 487.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | — | — | 183.8 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Oct 2024verified |
| Inventories | 594.0 m | 599.3 m | 744.6 m | 537.1 m | 502.3 m | 544.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.1 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 320.2 m | 262.3 m | 189.8 m | 183.1 m | 181.0 m | 186.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 229.0 m | 211.8 m | 209.3 m | 210.5 m | 206.9 m | 209.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 334.6 m | 307.9 m | 298.4 m | 298.2 m | 268.0 m | 268.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.8 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 183.6 m | 472.1 m | 264.1 m | 242.1 m | 248.2 m | 235.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Apr 2023verified |
| Long-term debt | 594.7 m | 989.5 m | 616.6 m | 497.4 m | 498.1 m | 567.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 475.5 m | 792.5 m | 528.9 m | 511.9 m | 508.8 m | 506.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.9 bn | 2.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 880.1 m † | 938.0 m † | 796.4 m † | 845.3 m † | 854.6 m † | 925.0 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 387.2 m | 588.5 m | 88.4 m | 529.1 m | 298.8 m | 122.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 61.4 m | 32.9 m | 40.4 m | 59.9 m | 56.2 m | 53.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 325.8 m ≈ | 555.6 m ≈ | 48.0 m ≈ | 469.3 m ≈ | 242.6 m ≈ | 68.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -60.7 m | -31.5 m | -40.4 m | -59.9 m | -56.2 m | -53.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -283.4 m | 324.8 m | -819.3 m | -332.6 m | -174.8 m | 2.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 89.6 m | 26.3 m | 118.1 m | 112.0 m | 116.2 m | 56.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 196.9 m | 45.3 m | 299.7 m | 100.0 m | 50.5 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 65 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet56
- Valuation94
- Quality81
- Growth0
- Returns65
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 37.74 – 232.89 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)134.40 – 232.89 (Mid 169.91)WACC 7.9% · starting FCFF 356.0 m USD · terminal value share of EV 77%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA37.74 – 125.79 (Mid 54.01)6 companies used · median multiple 5.8x · quartiles 4.2x – 13.2xAS, GIII, GIL, JRSH, LEVI, LULU
- Peers: P/E75.61 – 144.40 (Mid 98.59)10 companies used · median multiple 16.2x · quartiles 12.5x – 23.8xAS, BRIA, COLM, GIII, GIL, JRSH, LEVI, LULU, NCI, SGC
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate20.37 – 27.39 (Mid 23.36)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 65/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 20.6% | 73 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.4% | 75 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 145.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -0.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -26.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 25 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 6.7x | 80 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 5.5x | 100 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 3.8x | 83 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 25.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.0% | 42 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 11.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet56/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality81/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns65/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation94/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
CARTER’S, INC. (CRI). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-10-03.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.9 bn USD in 2026; net margin 7.4%; ROE 22.9%; net debt/EBITDA 0.3x.
The estimated value range is 75.61–144.40 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 98.59 USD, the price of 33.62 USD leaves a potential of 193.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 65.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 65/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 20.6%
- Net margin: 7.4%
- FCF conversion: 145.3%
- Interest coverage: 6.7x
- Current ratio: 2.8x
- P/E (TTM): 5.5x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.8x
- FCF yield: 25.9%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 11.4%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -0.5%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -26.0%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.3x
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Apparel & Other Finishd Prods of Fabrics & Similar Matl (SIC 2300) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 16 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASAmer Sports, Inc. | 17.9 bn | 42.2 | 7.9% | 6.5% | +26.7% | −14% / unavailable |
| LULUlululemon athletica inc. | 11.8 bn | 9.2 | 30.9% | 12.8% | +4.9% | −39% / −75% |
| GILGildan Activewear Inc. | 8.0 bn | 16.6 | 15.9% | 11.0% | +10.7% | −22% / +19% |
| COLMColumbia Sportswear Company | 3.6 bn | 18.4 | 12.7% | 6.0% | +0.9% | +32% / −9% |
| GIIIG III Apparel Group Ltd | 1.4 bn | 10.8 | 7.7% | 4.8% | −7.0% | +14% / +15% |
| CRICarter’s, Inc. | 1.2 bn | 5.5 | 22.9% | 7.4% | unavailable | +13% / −52% |
| LEVILevi Strauss & Co | 894.9 m | 15.9 | 25.8% | 8.8% | +4.1% | +8% / +54% |
| SGCSuperior Group Of Companies, Inc. | 224.5 m | 25.6 | 4.3% | 1.4% | +0.1% | +45% / +18% |
| JRSHJerash Holdings (US), Inc. | 73.8 m | 15.3 | 7.6% | 2.8% | +14.0% | +87% / +103% |
| PASWPing An Biomedical Co., Ltd. | 60.1 m | — | -28.4% | -37.6% | unavailable | +541% / unavailable |
| BRIABrilliA Inc | 34.5 m | 11.5 | 21.5% | 4.4% | +15.1% | −23% / unavailable |
| NCINeo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited | 12.8 m | 63.1 | 0.6% | 0.2% | −41.9% | −93% / unavailable |
| UAUnder Armour, Inc. | — | — | -29.8% | -10.0% | −3.8% | +26% / −27% |
| FIGSFIGS, Inc. | 0 | 67.0 | 14.8% | 8.7% | +13.6% | +124% / +202% |
| ZGNErmenegildo Zegna N.V. | — | — | 10.1% | 5.1% | −1.5% | +39% / +30% |
| LANVLanvin Group Holdings Limited | — | — | -200.4% | -50.3% | −22.9% | −60% / −79% |
| GOOSCanada Goose Holdings Inc. | — | — | 19.8% | 7.0% | +1.1% | −36% / −20% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CRI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 18.64 Total return -42% · Per year -42% | 33.04 Total return 1% · Per year 1% | 49.88 Total return 52% · Per year 52% |
| 3 years | 16.31 Total return -45% · Per year -18% | 32.69 Total return 6% · Per year 2% | 54.44 Total return 73% · Per year 20% |
| 5 years | 14.26 Total return -48% · Per year -12% | 32.34 Total return 11% · Per year 2% | 59.40 Total return 96% · Per year 14% |
- Exit P/E± 8.17
- Net margin± 5.72
- Annual revenue growth± 4.93
- Annual dilution± 0.48
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (30 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (30 Oct 2026).
In brief
Carter's is North America's largest apparel company exclusively for babies and young children, selling through company stores, eCommerce and wholesale channels under brands including Carter's, OshKosh, Skip Hop and Little Planet. The company is in a restructuring phase under pressure from import tariffs, and its recent quarterly results show partial recovery in a large core market of about $29 billion 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company leads the baby apparel category in North America, with long-established recognized brands and a multichannel model reaching consumers through stores, eCommerce and wholesale 1.
- The distribution network is broad, with tens of thousands of wholesale locations and international reach through licensees 1.
- Recently the company showed signs of recovery in comparable store sales and reduced costs through restructuring 3.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on overseas production and a relatively small number of vendors makes the supply chain vulnerable to shocks 1.
- Adjusted profitability has fallen under pressure from tariffs and costs, and the dividend was cut substantially 13.
- Substantial debt and higher interest costs limit the company's financial flexibility 13.
Opportunities
- Smaller brands such as Little Planet and Otter Avenue could attract new consumer groups and support higher prices 1.
- Recovery of previously paid tariffs could materially improve cash flow if refund procedures are completed 13.
- International expansion and licensing into adjacent categories could bring additional revenue 1.
Risks
- Tariffs and trade policyhigh
If import tariffs rise or return, product costs could increase and margins could compress, especially if prices cannot be adjusted 12.
- Wholesale customer concentrationmedium
Concentration of sales with a few large partners could cause significant losses if one of them reduces orders 1.
- Demand and birth ratesmedium
Falling birth rates and shifting preferences could reduce sales volume over the long term 1.
- Debt and financing costsmedium
Large debt and variable-rate borrowing could limit flexibility and raise debt service costs 13.
- Strategic executionlow
Restructuring and brand investments may not deliver the expected benefits, especially if leadership changes direction 12.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the recovery in U.S. Retail sales continues and productivity gains consolidate, profitability could rise in the second half of the year 3.
- Market leadership and brands with decades of history provide a solid base for extending product lines 1.
- Recovery of import duties could add liquidity and support debt reduction 13.
What would break the thesis
- If tariffs persist or rise, margins could stay under pressure and adjusted profit could keep falling 3.
- Falling birth rates could reduce long-term demand, particularly in the baby segment that drives most revenue 1.
- Higher debt and interest costs could limit the company's ability to invest and to pay dividends 13.
What to watch
- Development of U.S. Retail comparable sales and customer countQ3 2026
- Actual refund of import tariffs and its effect on cash flow2026
- Achievement of the fiscal 2026 net sales and adjusted profit outlooknext 10-K
- Evolution of dividend policy and share repurchase plans2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (30 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (30 Oct 2026).
The business
Carter's designs, sources and markets apparel and accessories for children from birth to age 10, with the Carter's brand (established 1865) and OshKosh (established 1895) at its core, plus Skip Hop for baby essentials, Little Planet with organic materials, and Otter Avenue, launched in 2025 for toddlers 1. The multichannel model includes 1,068 company-operated stores in North America, eCommerce websites, a mobile app and about 19,500 wholesale locations in North America 1.
The long-term strategy rests on three pillars: consumer-led product and innovation, a house-of-brands model in which each brand has its own identity, and a direct-to-consumer-first approach extended through wholesale 1. The company aims to stabilize performance, raise near-term productivity and invest for long-term growth 13.
Activity is organized in three reportable segments: U.S. Retail, U.S. Wholesale and International, all selling similar products 1. International sales come from stores and websites in Canada and Mexico, plus international wholesale customers and licensees in over 90 countries 1.
Segments
U.S. Wholesale
The U.S. Wholesale segment sells to retailers such as Costco, Kohl's, Macy's, Target and Walmart, across the Carter's, OshKosh, Skip Hop and Little Planet brands 1. Two wholesale customers account for a significant share of consolidated sales, so the segment depends on decisions by these partners 1. In the first half of fiscal 2026, segment sales grew 5.4% 3.
Market context
The U.S. apparel market for babies and children up to age 10 is about $29 billion as of December 2025 1. Carter's leads with a market share of about 9% in this category, while OshKosh holds about 1% 1. Demand depends on birth rates, consumer spending and inflation, which can directly affect sales volume 1.
Growth in relevant markets depends on birth rates, consumer confidence and how prices adjust to cost pressures. The company has indicated that consolidated net sales could grow 2% to 3% in fiscal 2026, while adjusted profit could decline 3.
Trends
- Import tariffsmixed
The company paid significant additional tariffs on imports from Asia, and a Supreme Court decision invalidated some of these tariffs, opening the possibility of refunds that remain uncertain procedurally 1. Product costs could stay elevated if tariffs return or are replaced 2.
- Import duty refundtailwind
In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, the company received a refund of previously paid import duties, which materially improved reported profit 3. This effect is one-off, and adjusted results show a more modest picture 3.
- Birth rates and consumer behaviorheadwind
Falling birth rates and shifting consumer preferences shrink the base of newborn customers, but the brands are increasingly attracting younger families from Gen Z and Millennial groups 1. The company believes these segments could bring higher long-term value 1.
- Productivity and cost reductionmixed
The organizational restructuring and closure of lower-margin stores are designed to improve profitability, and productivity benefits partly offset tariff costs in the second quarter 13. These effects could become more visible if tariff pressure eases 3.
Competitive position
The children's apparel market is competitive, and the company notes that some competitors have greater resources, which may let them compete more effectively 1. Carter's differentiates through its scale, its combination of direct and wholesale channels and its brand recognition 1.
Competition comes from large retailers selling private-label goods and from brands specialized in baby products, while mass and off-price channels add pricing pressure 1. The company seeks to hold market share through product innovation and marketing 1.
- Walmart (Child of Mine)WMT
Exclusive partner for the Child of Mine brand, and also a competing sales channel for children's apparel 1.
- Target (Just One You)TGT
Exclusive partner for Just One You and a wholesale customer for several brands, also competing in children's products 1.
- Amazon (Simple Joys)AMZN
Distribution channel for Simple Joys and other brands, and a competing platform for children's apparel sales 1.
- Mass and off-price retailers
Mass and off-price retailers selling apparel to young families that exert pressure on prices 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Carter’s (CRI) Rebrands for Younger Parents as Sales Momentum BuildsYahoo Finance — News · 18 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 18 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 30 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report30 Oct 2026
- Current report30 Oct 2026Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Other events
- Current report21 Sept 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report31 Jul 2026
- Current report31 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 May 2026Shareholder vote · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 May 2026Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-01-03 · SEC / Carter's, Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-04 · SEC / Carter's, Inc. · 31 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Carter's, Inc. · 31 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.