olivLaw · US equity research
CVS Health Corporation CVS
Retail-Drug Stores and Proprietary Stores · SIC 5912 · Vertical: Miscellaneous retail (SIC 59xx)
CVS Health is a health solutions company combining health insurance, pharmacy benefit management, retail pharmacies and medical services. Total revenues reached 402.1 billion dollars in fiscal 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 they rose 7.3%, which keeps the company's integrated model under close watch from investors and regulators.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, CVS Health Corporation (CVS) stock was 79.96 USD (−12.53% on the day), with market capitalisation 102.3 bn USD, P/E 9.3 on diluted EPS of 8.58 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.33%, beta 0.24, 52-week range 70.08–110.60 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 108.4 bn USD (+5.4% YoY), net income of 2.2 bn USD, diluted EPS 1.68 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 30.3
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 83.64 – 97.11
- below the lower band · %B -0.27 · band width 14.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 90.82 / 88.89
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.81 / -0.02
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −8.1% | −1.1% | −7.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | −19.3% | −0.5% | −18.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −7.9% | +4.4% | −12.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | +0.8% | +12.3% | −11.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +2.4% | +13.5% | −11.1 pp | −11.9% |
| 3 years | +13.8% | +76.4% | −62.6 pp | −11.6% |
| 5 years | −14.7% | +63.7% | −78.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 97.7 bn | 94.6 bn | 98.9 bn | 102.9 bn | 105.7 bn | 100.4 bn | 106.1 bn | 108.4 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 55.3 bn | 51.1 bn | 54.0 bn | 57.0 bn | 59.1 bn | 55.4 bn | 58.9 bn | 61.2 bn |
| Operating income | 2.4 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.4 bn | -3.2 bn | 2.1 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.7 bn | 3.6 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn |
| Interest expense | 758.0 m | 785.0 m | 763.0 m | 784.0 m | 787.0 m | 774.0 m | 757.0 m | 747.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 2.1 bn | 2.6 bn | 1.6 bn | -3.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.0 bn | 2.8 bn |
| Income tax | 503.0 m | 835.0 m | 634.0 m | 508.0 m | -1.6 bn | 981.0 m | 982.0 m | 678.0 m |
| Net income | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.0 bn | -4.0 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.2 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 1.30 ≈ | 1.41 | 0.80 | -3.13 | 2.29 ≈ | 2.30 | 2.31 | 1.68 |
| Operating cash flow | 1.9 bn | 4.6 bn | 1.9 bn ≈ | 796.0 m ≈ | 3.4 bn | 4.2 bn | 6.3 bn ≈ | 4.7 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 768.0 m | 743.0 m | 607.0 m ≈ | 698.0 m ≈ | 784.0 m | 849.0 m | 691.0 m ≈ | 817.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 838.0 m | 840.0 m | 866.0 m ≈ | 846.0 m ≈ | 845.0 m | 847.0 m | 878.0 m ≈ | 853.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | — | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 42-quarter history (min 9.5, median 16.1, max 197.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 194.6 bn | 256.8 bn | 268.7 bn | 292.1 bn | 322.5 bn | 357.8 bn | 372.8 bn | 402.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +5.3% | +32.0% | +4.6% | +8.7% | +10.4% | +10.9% | +4.2% | +7.8% |
| Net income | -594.0 m | 6.6 bn | 7.2 bn | 8.0 bn | 4.3 bn | 8.3 bn | 4.6 bn | 1.8 bn |
| Net income YoY | −109.0% | unavailable | +8.2% | +11.5% | −46.1% | +93.6% | −44.7% | −61.7% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.57 | 5.08 | 5.46 | 6.02 | 3.26 | 6.47 | 3.66 | 1.39 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −108.9% | unavailable | +7.5% | +10.3% | −45.8% | +98.5% | −43.4% | −62.0% |
| net % | -0.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Free cash flow | 6.8 bn | 10.4 bn | 13.4 bn | 15.7 bn | 13.5 bn | 10.4 bn | 6.3 bn | 7.8 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 8.5 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 0 USD
- Net debt
- -8.5 bn USD
- Equity
- 75.4 bn USD
- Total assets
- 253.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- 0.84x
- ROE
- 2.3%
- ROA
- 0.7%
- FCF margin
- 1.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 268.7 bn | 292.1 bn | 322.5 bn | 357.8 bn | 372.8 bn | 402.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 164.0 bn | 175.8 bn | 196.9 bn | 217.1 bn | 206.3 bn | 221.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 104.7 bn ≈ | 116.3 bn ≈ | 125.6 bn ≈ | 140.7 bn ≈ | 166.5 bn ≈ | 180.9 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026derived |
| Operating income | 13.9 bn | 13.3 bn | 8.0 bn | 13.7 bn | 8.5 bn | 4.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 4.4 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 18.4 bn ≈ | 17.8 bn ≈ | 12.2 bn ≈ | 18.1 bn ≈ | 13.1 bn ≈ | 9.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 2.9 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 9.8 bn | 10.5 bn | 5.8 bn | 11.2 bn | 6.1 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 2.6 bn | 2.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.8 bn | 1.6 bn | 408.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 7.2 bn | 8.0 bn | 4.3 bn | 8.3 bn | 4.6 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 5.46 | 6.02 | 3.26 | 6.47 | 3.66 | 1.39 | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.20 | 2.42 | 2.66 | 2.66 | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 7.9 bn | 9.4 bn | 12.9 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.6 bn | 8.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 21.7 bn | 24.4 bn | 27.3 bn | 35.2 bn | 36.5 bn | 39.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 18.5 bn | 17.8 bn | 19.1 bn | 18.0 bn | 18.1 bn | 19.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 56.4 bn | 60.0 bn | 65.6 bn | 67.9 bn | 68.6 bn | 74.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 12.6 bn | 12.9 bn | 12.9 bn | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Feb 2023verified |
| Goodwill | 79.6 bn | 79.1 bn | 78.2 bn | 91.3 bn | 91.3 bn | 85.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 31.1 bn | 29.0 bn | 24.8 bn | 29.2 bn | 27.3 bn | 25.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 230.7 bn | 233.0 bn | 228.3 bn | 249.7 bn | 253.2 bn | 253.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 4.2 bn | 0 | 200.0 m | 2.1 bn | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 62.0 bn | 67.8 bn | 69.4 bn | 79.2 bn | 84.6 bn | 88.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 161.0 bn | 157.6 bn | 156.5 bn | 173.1 bn | 177.5 bn | 178.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 69.7 bn | 74.8 bn | 71.8 bn | 76.6 bn | 75.7 bn | 75.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 15.9 bn | 18.3 bn | 16.2 bn | 13.4 bn | 9.1 bn | 10.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 13.4 bn ≈ | 15.7 bn ≈ | 13.5 bn ≈ | 10.4 bn ≈ | 6.3 bn ≈ | 7.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -5.5 bn | -5.3 bn | -5.0 bn | -20.9 bn | -7.6 bn | -5.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -7.7 bn | -11.4 bn | -10.5 bn | 2.7 bn | -1.1 bn | -4.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 3.5 bn | 2.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 69 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 102.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation88
- Balance sheet57
- Quality81
- Growth32
- Returns69
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 34.96 – 320.59 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)211.50 – 320.59 (Mid 253.87)WACC 9.2% · starting FCFF 18.4 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 73%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA138.17 – 225.52 (Mid 153.87)10 companies used · median multiple 9.6x · quartiles 8.6x – 14.3xAMZN, BNED, BZUN, CDW, ELA, NSIT, SBH, SPH, SVV, ULTA
- Peers: P/E71.89 – 201.02 (Mid 149.15)14 companies used · median multiple 17.4x · quartiles 8.4x – 23.4xAMZN, BBW, BNED, CDW, CHWY, ELA, EZPW, NSIT, RENT, SBH, SPH, ULTA, VIPS, WINA
- Dividend discount (DDM)34.96 – 47.01 (Mid 40.10)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 69/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 19.9% | 77 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.6% | 68 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 141.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 7.6% | 64 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -24.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.4x | 80 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.9x | 53 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 4 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 9.3x | 75 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 4.8x | 92 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 15.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.3% | 48 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 22.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet57/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth32/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality81/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns69/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation88/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
CVS HEALTH Corp (CVS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 402.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 7.8%; net margin 2.6%; ROE 14.4%; net debt/EBITDA -0.4x.
The estimated value range is 105.03–213.27 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 151.51 USD, the price of 79.96 USD leaves a potential of 89.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 47.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 69/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 19.9%
- FCF conversion: 141.0%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.4x
- P/E (TTM): 9.3x
- EV/EBITDA: 4.8x
- FCF yield: 15.2%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 22.0%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -24.7%
- Current ratio: 0.9x
Versus the vertical median
Miscellaneous retail (SIC 59xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZNAmazon.com, Inc. | 2,876.6 bn | 21.5 | 27.4% | 16.9% | +12.4% | +14% / +82% |
| CVSCVS HEALTH Corp | 102.3 bn | 9.3 | 14.4% | 2.6% | +7.8% | +2% / +14% |
| ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc. | 28.2 bn | 24.1 | 46.1% | 9.3% | +9.7% | +23% / +55% |
| CDWCdw Corp | 21.1 bn | 19.7 | 42.5% | 4.5% | +6.8% | +17% / −20% |
| NSITInsight Enterprises, Inc. | 5.2 bn | 25.7 | 13.1% | 2.5% | −5.2% | +103% / +16% |
| SBHSally Beauty Holdings, Inc. | 1.8 bn | 10.0 | 23.5% | 5.2% | −0.4% | +21% / +99% |
| REALTheRealReal, Inc. | 1.7 bn | — | — | -1.4% | +15.4% | −6% / +500% |
| SVVSavers Value Village, Inc. | 1.5 bn | 63.3 | 5.7% | 1.4% | unavailable | +10% / −33% |
| JMIAJumia Technologies AG | 1.3 bn | — | -108.9% | -32.6% | +12.8% | −57% / +60% |
| SPHSuburban Propane Partners LP | 1.1 bn | 7.3 | — | 9.4% | +7.9% | −12% / +0% |
| WINAWinmark Corporation | 987.7 m | 24.8 | — | 45.1% | +5.9% | −32% / −35% |
| BZUNBaozun Inc. | 597.0 m | — | -6.6% | -2.4% | +10.2% | +21% / +16% |
| HNSTThe Honest Company, Inc. | 476.3 m | — | -6.9% | -3.6% | −1.9% | +65% / +86% |
| BNEDBarnes & Noble Education, Inc. | 457.9 m | 20.6 | 8.3% | 1.3% | +6.5% | +41% / −88% |
| BBWBuild-A-Bear Workshop Inc | 388.6 m | 7.8 | 32.8% | 10.0% | +6.7% | −41% / +29% |
| TMSTeamshares Inc | 344.7 m | — | -6.7% | — | unavailable | −54% / unavailable |
| ELAEnvela Corporation | 303.8 m | 13.6 | 32.4% | 7.6% | +33.6% | +1% / +167% |
| TDUPThredUp Inc. | 290.9 m | — | -39.2% | -6.9% | +19.5% | −71% / +12% |
| DIBS1stdibs.com, Inc. | 186.9 m | — | -9.2% | -8.5% | +1.5% | −3% / +30% |
| NXHNeighborhood Intelligence, Inc. | 163.0 m | — | -47.0% | -7.1% | −25.1% | −72% / −91% |
| RENTRent the Runway, Inc. | 83.1 m | 0.2 | — | 11.8% | +7.7% | −49% / −77% |
| BARKBark, Inc. | 75.2 m | — | -36.7% | -8.4% | −18.5% | −42% / −49% |
| GROVGrove Collaborative Holdings, Inc. | 47.4 m | — | — | -4.1% | −14.6% | −19% / −44% |
| SPWHSportsman’s Warehouse Holdings, Inc. | 45.4 m | — | -25.8% | -3.9% | +1.0% | −48% / −76% |
| LVLULulu’s Fashion Lounge Holdings, Inc. | 31.0 m | — | -602.9% | -3.2% | −10.6% | +107% / −74% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CVS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 49.02 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 86.54 Total return 12% · Per year 12% | 130.18 Total return 67% · Per year 67% |
| 3 years | 50.62 Total return -28% · Per year -11% | 100.25 Total return 37% · Per year 11% | 165.14 Total return 121% · Per year 30% |
| 5 years | 52.26 Total return -21% · Per year -5% | 116.13 Total return 66% · Per year 11% | 209.49 Total return 190% · Per year 24% |
- Exit P/E± 25.06
- Net margin± 17.54
- Annual revenue growth± 13.98
- Annual dilution± 1.47
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
In brief
CVS Health is a health solutions company combining health insurance, pharmacy benefit management, retail pharmacies and medical services. Total revenues reached 402.1 billion dollars in fiscal 2025 1, and in the second quarter of 2026 they rose 7.3% 3, which keeps the company's integrated model under close watch from investors and regulators.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a broad pharmacy network, a large PBM and a big insurance membership base, which give scale and vertical integration 1.
- Higher second-quarter results show that recovery measures in Health Care Benefits are working 3.
- Operating cash flow remains solid and supports investment and debt obligations 3.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- Expanding neighborhood care and primary care could support growth in the Health Services segment 1.
- If obesity treatments become more affordable, the company could gain volume through its GLP-1 programs 3.
- Automation through artificial intelligence could cut administrative costs and speed up claims processing 3.
Risks
- Hard-to-forecast medical costshigh
Premiums are set in advance, and unexpected cost increases are hard to recover within the fixed premium period 1.
- Litigation and government investigationshigh
The company is involved in litigation and government audits that could lead to fines and changes in practices 1.
- PBM regulationmedium
Legislation targeting PBMs could limit the ability to standardize products across state lines 1.
- Asset impairmentmedium
Further goodwill write-downs could occur if the performance of acquired units weakens 1.
- Information securitymedium
Cyberattacks and personal data failures could damage reputation and operations 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the margin recovery in the insurance segment continues, adjusted profit could grow more than expected.
- Integration across insurance, PBM and pharmacy could create synergies that support stronger results.
- Raising the 2026 outlook suggests management has confidence in most of its segments' performance.
What would break the thesis
- If utilization stays high, insurance margins could come under pressure again.
- PBM regulation and pricing pressure could reduce revenue from pharmacy benefit administration.
- Legacy litigation and possible write-downs could keep weighing on profit and reputation.
What to watch
- Update to the 2026 guidance for GAAP and adjusted EPSQ3 2026
- Trend in the medical benefit ratio in the Health Care Benefits segmentQ3 2026
- Results of integrating Rite Aid assets and prescription volume2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
The business
The company has four reportable segments: Health Care Benefits, which offers insurance through the Aetna brand, Health Services, which covers pharmacy benefit management through CVS Caremark and health care delivery, Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness, which runs the pharmacies and sells health products, and Corporate/Other 1. The retail network includes about 9,000 locations, and the PBM serves about 87 million plan members 1. The integrated model aims to connect care, lower total costs and improve patient outcomes 1.
Health Care Benefits serves people through commercial plans, Medicare Advantage, Medicare Part D and Medicaid, and a significant share of revenue comes from the federal government through CMS contracts 1. Health Services also includes care assets such as Signify Health and Oak Street Health 1.
The stated strategy focuses on simplifying the health care experience, improving engagement, lowering costs and delivering better outcomes 1. The company is investing in artificial intelligence to automate processes, including Aetna claims handling 3.
Segments
Market context
The market is dominated by large insurers, pharmacy benefit managers and pharmacy chains, and demand depends on health care costs, public regulation and government-funded programs 1. Health care budgets and Medicare and Medicaid policy directly influence the company's margins 1.
Rising utilization and state rules on PBMs shape demand and pricing pressure 1. The market for high-cost drugs, including GLP-1 treatments, is an area where the company is expanding its offer 3.
Trends
- Elevated utilization of health servicesheadwind
The company expects utilization to remain elevated in 2026, which could pressure the Health Care Benefits and health services segments 1.
- Margin recovery in Health Care Benefitstailwind
Better insurance performance and the absence of prior reserve charges support higher adjusted operating income 3.
- Pressure on rebates and PBM pricingheadwind
Pharmaceutical manufacturers and clients are asking for a larger share of rebates, and regulation limits PBM margins 1.
- Artificial intelligence and digitalizationtailwind
AI automation of call centers and claims processing could lower operating costs if adoption stays consistent 3.
Competitive position
The company competes with other health insurers, pharmacy benefit managers and pharmacy chains that offer similar services. Competitive pressure is high and the business environment is changing quickly 1.
Rivals may offer lower prices or different care models, which could limit the company's ability to keep clients and margins over the long term 1.
- UnitedHealth GroupUNH
Major competitor in health insurance and Medicare Advantage, cited as competitive pressure in the environment the company describes.
- Cigna GroupCI
Competitor in employer health benefits and pharmacy administration, with offers that overlap the company's.
- Walgreens Boots Alliance
Direct rival in retail pharmacy and neighborhood care services, with comparable presence across the United States.
- Rite Aid
Pharmacy chain whose assets expanded the company's prescription volume, showing a consolidating market.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- CVS Health plans to split into two publicly traded companiesAnadolu Agency (TR, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- CVS Health plans to split itself up. Here's why a breakup could make sense nowCNBC — Top News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves midday: CoreWeave, Micron, Booking Holdings, McDonald's, CVS Health & moreCNBC — Top News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- STAT+: CVS Health to split, reversing years of deal-making to combine pharmacies and insuranceSTAT News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- CVS Health to split pharmacy chain from health insuranceThe Guardian World · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- STAT+: Pharmalittle: We’re reading about CVS plans to split up, FDA inspections in India and China and moreSTAT News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- CVS Health plans to split in two. Here’s what is driving the massive healthcare breakup.MarketWatch — Top Stories · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Here’s What Strengthened CVS Health (CVS) in Q2Yahoo Finance — News · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- CVS Health’s Yield Touched 3% as the Stock Slid. Is the Payout a Bargain or a Warning?Yahoo Finance — News · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
- CVS Health Eyes Margin Recovery, Cash Flow as 2027 Headwinds LoomYahoo Finance — News · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Wall Street Loves CVS Health Stock Right Now. Should You?Yahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Jim Cramer Says “Own It, Don’t Trade It” as CVS Health Gains MomentumYahoo Finance — News · 05 Sept 2026 · EN
- Is CVS Health Outperforming the Nasdaq?Yahoo Finance — News · 04 Sept 2026 · EN
- CVS Health Stock Is Beating the Market in 2026. Here's Why Wall Street Thinks It Can Soar Another 22%.Yahoo Finance — News · 22 Aug 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement03 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / CVS Health Corporation · 10 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / CVS Health Corporation · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / CVS Health Corporation · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.