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olivLaw · US equity research

CVS Health Corporation CVS

Retail-Drug Stores and Proprietary Stores · SIC 5912 · Vertical: Miscellaneous retail (SIC 59xx)

79.96USD−12.53% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

CVS Health is a health solutions company combining health insurance, pharmacy benefit management, retail pharmacies and medical services. Total revenues reached 402.1 billion dollars in fiscal 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 they rose 7.3%, which keeps the company's integrated model under close watch from investors and regulators.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, CVS Health Corporation (CVS) stock was 79.96 USD (−12.53% on the day), with market capitalisation 102.3 bn USD, P/E 9.3 on diluted EPS of 8.58 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.33%, beta 0.24, 52-week range 70.08–110.60 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 108.4 bn USD (+5.4% YoY), net income of 2.2 bn USD, diluted EPS 1.68 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
102.3 bn USD
shares as of 28 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
9.3
Diluted EPS TTM 8.58 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
10.73%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
3.33%
DPS 12m 2.66
Beta (2y)
0.24
Volatility (1y) 34%
52-week range
70.08110.60

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
30.3
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
83.64 – 97.11
below the lower band · %B -0.27 · band width 14.9%
SMA 50 / 200
90.82 / 88.89
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.81 / -0.02
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−8.1%−1.1%−7.0 pp—
3 months−19.3%−0.5%−18.9 pp—
6 months−7.9%+4.4%−12.3 pp—
Year to date+0.8%+12.3%−11.6 pp—
1 year+2.4%+13.5%−11.1 pp−11.9%
3 years+13.8%+76.4%−62.6 pp−11.6%
5 years−14.7%+63.7%−78.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−27.7%
21 Jul 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−60.5%
08 Feb 2022 → 19 Dec 2024
Compound annual growth (5y)
−3.1%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
108.4 bn USD
+5.4% YoY
Net income
2.2 bn USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
1.68
unavailable YoY
net / operating
2.0% / 3.3%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue97.7 bn94.6 bn98.9 bn102.9 bn105.7 bn100.4 bn106.1 bn108.4 bn
Cost of revenue55.3 bn51.1 bn54.0 bn57.0 bn59.1 bn55.4 bn58.9 bn61.2 bn
Operating income2.4 bn3.4 bn2.4 bn-3.2 bn2.1 bn4.7 bn4.7 bn3.6 bn
Depreciation & amortisation1.1 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn1.1 bn1.1 bn1.1 bn1.1 bn1.1 bn
Interest expense758.0 m785.0 m763.0 m784.0 m787.0 m774.0 m757.0 m747.0 m
Pre-tax income2.1 bn2.6 bn1.6 bn-3.5 bn1.4 bn3.9 bn4.0 bn2.8 bn
Income tax503.0 m835.0 m634.0 m508.0 m-1.6 bn981.0 m982.0 m678.0 m
Net income1.6 bn1.8 bn1.0 bn-4.0 bn2.9 bn2.9 bn3.0 bn2.2 bn
Diluted EPS1.30 ≈1.410.80-3.132.29 ≈2.302.311.68
Operating cash flow1.9 bn4.6 bn1.9 bn ≈796.0 m ≈3.4 bn4.2 bn6.3 bn ≈4.7 bn ≈
Capex768.0 m743.0 m607.0 m ≈698.0 m ≈784.0 m849.0 m691.0 m ≈817.0 m ≈
Dividends paid838.0 m840.0 m866.0 m ≈846.0 m ≈845.0 m847.0 m878.0 m ≈853.0 m ≈
Share repurchases000 ≈0 ≈0———

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 42-quarter history (min 9.5, median 16.1, max 197.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue194.6 bn256.8 bn268.7 bn292.1 bn322.5 bn357.8 bn372.8 bn402.1 bn
Revenue YoY+5.3%+32.0%+4.6%+8.7%+10.4%+10.9%+4.2%+7.8%
Net income-594.0 m6.6 bn7.2 bn8.0 bn4.3 bn8.3 bn4.6 bn1.8 bn
Net income YoY−109.0%unavailable+8.2%+11.5%−46.1%+93.6%−44.7%−61.7%
Diluted EPS-0.575.085.466.023.266.473.661.39
Diluted EPS YoY−108.9%unavailable+7.5%+10.3%−45.8%+98.5%−43.4%−62.0%
net %-0.3%2.6%2.7%2.7%1.3%2.3%1.2%0.4%
Free cash flow6.8 bn10.4 bn13.4 bn15.7 bn13.5 bn10.4 bn6.3 bn7.8 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
8.5 bn USD
Financial debt
0 USD
Net debt
-8.5 bn USD
Equity
75.4 bn USD
Total assets
253.5 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.00x
Current ratio
0.84x
ROE
2.3%
ROA
0.7%
FCF margin
1.9%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
357.8 bn
2024
372.8 bn
2025
402.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
217.1 bn
2024
206.3 bn
2025
221.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
140.7 bn ≈
2024
166.5 bn ≈
2025
180.9 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026derived

Operating income
2023
13.7 bn
2024
8.5 bn
2025
4.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
4.4 bn
2024
4.6 bn
2025
4.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
18.1 bn ≈
2024
13.1 bn ≈
2025
9.3 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
2.7 bn
2024
3.0 bn
2025
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
11.2 bn
2024
6.1 bn
2025
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
2.8 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
408.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
8.3 bn
2024
4.6 bn
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
6.47
2024
3.66
2025
1.39

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
2.42
2024
2.66
2025
2.66

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
8.2 bn
2024
8.6 bn
2025
8.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
35.2 bn
2024
36.5 bn
2025
39.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
18.0 bn
2024
18.1 bn
2025
19.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
67.9 bn
2024
68.6 bn
2025
74.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 08 Feb 2023verified

Goodwill
2023
91.3 bn
2024
91.3 bn
2025
85.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
29.2 bn
2024
27.3 bn
2025
25.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
249.7 bn
2024
253.2 bn
2025
253.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
200.0 m
2024
2.1 bn
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
79.2 bn
2024
84.6 bn
2025
88.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
173.1 bn
2024
177.5 bn
2025
178.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
76.6 bn
2024
75.7 bn
2025
75.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
13.4 bn
2024
9.1 bn
2025
10.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
3.0 bn
2024
2.8 bn
2025
2.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
10.4 bn ≈
2024
6.3 bn ≈
2025
7.8 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-20.9 bn
2024
-7.6 bn
2025
-5.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
2.7 bn
2024
-1.1 bn
2025
-4.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
3.1 bn
2024
3.4 bn
2025
3.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
2.0 bn
2024
3.0 bn
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
7.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
7.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
8.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-45.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-61.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-25.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-24.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-62.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-24.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-23.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
23.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
44.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
4.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
3.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
14.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
4.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
19.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
9.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
31.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
22.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
-8.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
4.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
18.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
3.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
15.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
141.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
95.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
37 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
29 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
102.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
94.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
9.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
9.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
10.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
4.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
6.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
0.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
6.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
15.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Attractive profile

Score: 69 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']

Closing price

79.96 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 102.3 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
102.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
9.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
4.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
14.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
7.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
3.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 28 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 04 Nov 2026
verified 3136derived 227

Score by group

  • Valuation88
  • Balance sheet57
  • Quality81
  • Growth32
  • Returns69

Estimated value range

Low
105.03
USD per share
Mid
151.51
USD per share
High
213.27
USD per share
Price: 79.96 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 89.5% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 47.2% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 4 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 34.96 – 320.59 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)211.50 – 320.59 (Mid 253.87)
    WACC 9.2% · starting FCFF 18.4 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 73%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA138.17 – 225.52 (Mid 153.87)
    10 companies used · median multiple 9.6x · quartiles 8.6x – 14.3x
    AMZN, BNED, BZUN, CDW, ELA, NSIT, SBH, SPH, SVV, ULTA
  • Peers: P/E71.89 – 201.02 (Mid 149.15)
    14 companies used · median multiple 17.4x · quartiles 8.4x – 23.4x
    AMZN, BBW, BNED, CDW, CHWY, ELA, EZPW, NSIT, RENT, SBH, SPH, ULTA, VIPS, WINA
  • Dividend discount (DDM)34.96 – 47.01 (Mid 40.10)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Miscellaneous retail (SIC 59xx)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Attractive profile · Score 69/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality19.9%77 (vs peers)10%
Net margin · Quality2.6%68 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality141.0%100 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth7.6%64 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-24.7%0 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.4x80 (vs peers)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet4.9x53 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.9x4 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation9.3x75 (vs peers)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation4.8x92 (vs peers)10%
FCF yield · Valuation15.2%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns3.3%48 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns22.0%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet57/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth32/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality81/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns69/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation88/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

CVS HEALTH Corp (CVS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 402.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 7.8%; net margin 2.6%; ROE 14.4%; net debt/EBITDA -0.4x.

The estimated value range is 105.03–213.27 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 151.51 USD, the price of 79.96 USD leaves a potential of 89.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 47.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 69/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 19.9%
  • FCF conversion: 141.0%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: -0.4x
  • P/E (TTM): 9.3x
  • EV/EBITDA: 4.8x
  • FCF yield: 15.2%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 22.0%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -24.7%
  • Current ratio: 0.9x

Versus the vertical median

Miscellaneous retail (SIC 59xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
9.3x
vertical median 20.2x
below median (−53.8%)
EV/EBITDA
4.8x
vertical median 9.6x
below median (−50.1%)
P/S
0.2x
vertical median 0.5x
below median (−46.1%)
P/B
1.3x
vertical median 2.1x
below median (−38.5%)
ROE
14.4%
vertical median -2.8%
above median
Net margin
2.6%
vertical median -0.9%
above median
EBIT margin
3.6%
vertical median 0.4%
above median (+779.1%)
Revenue YoY
7.8%
vertical median 5.9%
above median (+33.8%)
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.4x
vertical median 1.1x
below median (−139.2%)
Dividend yield
3.3%
vertical median 1.2%
above median (+188.5%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
AMZNAmazon.com, Inc.2,876.6 bn21.527.4%16.9%+12.4%+14% / +82%
CVSCVS HEALTH Corp102.3 bn9.314.4%2.6%+7.8%+2% / +14%
ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.28.2 bn24.146.1%9.3%+9.7%+23% / +55%
CDWCdw Corp21.1 bn19.742.5%4.5%+6.8%+17% / −20%
NSITInsight Enterprises, Inc.5.2 bn25.713.1%2.5%−5.2%+103% / +16%
SBHSally Beauty Holdings, Inc.1.8 bn10.023.5%5.2%−0.4%+21% / +99%
REALTheRealReal, Inc.1.7 bn——-1.4%+15.4%−6% / +500%
SVVSavers Value Village, Inc.1.5 bn63.35.7%1.4%unavailable+10% / −33%
JMIAJumia Technologies AG1.3 bn—-108.9%-32.6%+12.8%−57% / +60%
SPHSuburban Propane Partners LP1.1 bn7.3—9.4%+7.9%−12% / +0%
WINAWinmark Corporation987.7 m24.8—45.1%+5.9%−32% / −35%
BZUNBaozun Inc.597.0 m—-6.6%-2.4%+10.2%+21% / +16%
HNSTThe Honest Company, Inc.476.3 m—-6.9%-3.6%−1.9%+65% / +86%
BNEDBarnes & Noble Education, Inc.457.9 m20.68.3%1.3%+6.5%+41% / −88%
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1- and 3-year price returns: for CVS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

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Base
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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
49.02
Total return -36% · Per year -36%
86.54
Total return 12% · Per year 12%
130.18
Total return 67% · Per year 67%
3 years
50.62
Total return -28% · Per year -11%
100.25
Total return 37% · Per year 11%
165.14
Total return 121% · Per year 30%
5 years
52.26
Total return -21% · Per year -5%
116.13
Total return 66% · Per year 11%
209.49
Total return 190% · Per year 24%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 25.06
  • Net margin± 17.54
  • Annual revenue growth± 13.98
  • Annual dilution± 1.47

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).

In brief

CVS Health is a health solutions company combining health insurance, pharmacy benefit management, retail pharmacies and medical services. Total revenues reached 402.1 billion dollars in fiscal 2025 1, and in the second quarter of 2026 they rose 7.3% 3, which keeps the company's integrated model under close watch from investors and regulators.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has a broad pharmacy network, a large PBM and a big insurance membership base, which give scale and vertical integration 1.
  • Higher second-quarter results show that recovery measures in Health Care Benefits are working 3.
  • Operating cash flow remains solid and supports investment and debt obligations 3.

Weaknesses

  • In 2025 the company recorded goodwill impairment and litigation reserves that sharply reduced operating income 1.
  • PBM margins are under pressure from rebates and negotiated client pricing 1.
  • Dependence on federal government contracts makes revenue sensitive to public policy 1.

Opportunities

  • Expanding neighborhood care and primary care could support growth in the Health Services segment 1.
  • If obesity treatments become more affordable, the company could gain volume through its GLP-1 programs 3.
  • Automation through artificial intelligence could cut administrative costs and speed up claims processing 3.

Threats

  • Regulation limiting PBM activity could affect the business model in several states 1.
  • Medical costs above estimates could reduce insurance segment margins 1.
  • A slowdown in consumer spending and macroeconomic pressure could reduce sales in the company's pharmacies and stores 1.

Risks

  • Hard-to-forecast medical costshigh

    Premiums are set in advance, and unexpected cost increases are hard to recover within the fixed premium period 1.

  • Litigation and government investigationshigh

    The company is involved in litigation and government audits that could lead to fines and changes in practices 1.

  • PBM regulationmedium

    Legislation targeting PBMs could limit the ability to standardize products across state lines 1.

  • Asset impairmentmedium

    Further goodwill write-downs could occur if the performance of acquired units weakens 1.

  • Information securitymedium

    Cyberattacks and personal data failures could damage reputation and operations 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the margin recovery in the insurance segment continues, adjusted profit could grow more than expected.
  • Integration across insurance, PBM and pharmacy could create synergies that support stronger results.
  • Raising the 2026 outlook suggests management has confidence in most of its segments' performance.

What would break the thesis

  • If utilization stays high, insurance margins could come under pressure again.
  • PBM regulation and pricing pressure could reduce revenue from pharmacy benefit administration.
  • Legacy litigation and possible write-downs could keep weighing on profit and reputation.

What to watch

  • Update to the 2026 guidance for GAAP and adjusted EPSQ3 2026
  • Trend in the medical benefit ratio in the Health Care Benefits segmentQ3 2026
  • Results of integrating Rite Aid assets and prescription volume2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).

The business

The company has four reportable segments: Health Care Benefits, which offers insurance through the Aetna brand, Health Services, which covers pharmacy benefit management through CVS Caremark and health care delivery, Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness, which runs the pharmacies and sells health products, and Corporate/Other 1. The retail network includes about 9,000 locations, and the PBM serves about 87 million plan members 1. The integrated model aims to connect care, lower total costs and improve patient outcomes 1.

Health Care Benefits serves people through commercial plans, Medicare Advantage, Medicare Part D and Medicaid, and a significant share of revenue comes from the federal government through CMS contracts 1. Health Services also includes care assets such as Signify Health and Oak Street Health 1.

The stated strategy focuses on simplifying the health care experience, improving engagement, lowering costs and delivering better outcomes 1. The company is investing in artificial intelligence to automate processes, including Aetna claims handling 3.

Segments

Health Services

The PBM segment posted higher quarterly revenue, supported by drug mix and brand inflation, although price improvements for pharmacy clients limited growth 3. The company says pressure on rebates and margins is expected to continue 1.

Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness

The pharmacy segment had nearly flat revenue, with higher prescription volume mainly from the Rite Aid asset acquisitions 3. Weaker discretionary spending and a shift to grocery and digital retailers could reduce front-store sales 1.

Market context

The market is dominated by large insurers, pharmacy benefit managers and pharmacy chains, and demand depends on health care costs, public regulation and government-funded programs 1. Health care budgets and Medicare and Medicaid policy directly influence the company's margins 1.

Rising utilization and state rules on PBMs shape demand and pricing pressure 1. The market for high-cost drugs, including GLP-1 treatments, is an area where the company is expanding its offer 3.

Trends

  • Elevated utilization of health servicesheadwind

    The company expects utilization to remain elevated in 2026, which could pressure the Health Care Benefits and health services segments 1.

  • Margin recovery in Health Care Benefitstailwind

    Better insurance performance and the absence of prior reserve charges support higher adjusted operating income 3.

  • Pressure on rebates and PBM pricingheadwind

    Pharmaceutical manufacturers and clients are asking for a larger share of rebates, and regulation limits PBM margins 1.

  • Artificial intelligence and digitalizationtailwind

    AI automation of call centers and claims processing could lower operating costs if adoption stays consistent 3.

Competitive position

The company competes with other health insurers, pharmacy benefit managers and pharmacy chains that offer similar services. Competitive pressure is high and the business environment is changing quickly 1.

Rivals may offer lower prices or different care models, which could limit the company's ability to keep clients and margins over the long term 1.

  • UnitedHealth GroupUNH

    Major competitor in health insurance and Medicare Advantage, cited as competitive pressure in the environment the company describes.

  • Cigna GroupCI

    Competitor in employer health benefits and pharmacy administration, with offers that overlap the company's.

  • Walgreens Boots Alliance

    Direct rival in retail pharmacy and neighborhood care services, with comparable presence across the United States.

  • Rite Aid

    Pharmacy chain whose assets expanded the company's prescription volume, showing a consolidating market.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / CVS Health Corporation · 10 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / CVS Health Corporation · 05 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / CVS Health Corporation · 05 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.