olivLaw · US equity research
Ulta Beauty, Inc. ULTA
Retail-Retail Stores, NEC · SIC 5990 · Vertical: Retail-Retail Stores, NEC (SIC 5990)
Ulta Beauty is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the United States, offering cosmetics, fragrance, skin care, hair care, wellness products and salon services across stores and digital channels. Net sales reached 12.4 billion USD in fiscal 2025 and the company raised its fiscal 2026 outlook after a strong second quarter, making its trajectory relevant to investors and customers alike.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) stock was 660.70 USD (+4.07% on the day), with market capitalisation 28.2 bn USD, P/E 24.1 on diluted EPS of 27.44 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.82, 52-week range 450.75–706.82 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 3.0 bn USD (+8.9% YoY), net income of 282.0 m USD (+8.1% YoY), diluted EPS 6.55 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 71.8
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 556.41 – 666.58
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.95 · band width 18.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 571.56 / 552.54
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 23.69 / 21.32
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +21.7% | −1.1% | +22.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +22.5% | −0.5% | +22.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +23.5% | +4.4% | +19.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +9.2% | +12.3% | −3.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +27.9% | +13.5% | +14.3 pp | −26.6% |
| 3 years | +71.2% | +76.4% | −5.2 pp | −49.3% |
| 5 years | +68.6% | +63.7% | +4.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 01 Aug 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.5 bn | 3.5 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.0 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 1.5 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn |
| Gross profit | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn |
| SG&A | 682.3 m | 815.6 m | 710.6 m | 741.7 m | 840.9 m | 1.0 bn | 814.7 m | 802.8 m |
| Operating income | 318.5 m | 516.3 m | 401.8 m | 344.9 m | 309.4 m | 476.9 m | 448.3 m | 379.6 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 67.0 m | 70.0 m | 72.0 m | 71.2 m | 75.8 m | 81.8 m | 81.4 m | 81.3 m |
| Pre-tax income | 320.2 m | 518.3 m | 405.3 m | 346.3 m | 305.3 m | 474.3 m | 448.9 m | 376.0 m |
| Income tax | 78.0 m | 125.0 m | 99.6 m | 84.8 m | 73.4 m | 116.0 m | 106.9 m | 91.9 m |
| Net income | 242.2 m | 393.3 m | 305.1 m | 260.9 m | 230.9 m | 356.7 m | 340.5 m | 282.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 5.14 | 8.46 ≈ | 6.70 | 5.78 | 5.14 | 8.01 ≈ | 7.74 | 6.55 |
| Operating cash flow | -56.8 m ≈ | 1.0 bn | 220.0 m | 96.5 m ≈ | 5.6 m ≈ | 1.2 bn | 261.9 m | 119.7 m ≈ |
| Capex | 114.2 m ≈ | 73.9 m | 79.0 m | 77.0 m ≈ | 87.3 m ≈ | 191.6 m | 58.3 m | 81.3 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 263.6 m ≈ | 237.9 m | 369.8 m | 109.5 m ≈ | 224.7 m ≈ | 197.4 m | 545.3 m | 247.9 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 51 percentile of its own 43-quarter history (min 13.7, median 23.5, max 90.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.7 bn | 7.4 bn | 6.2 bn | 8.6 bn | 10.2 bn | 11.2 bn | 11.3 bn | 12.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +14.1% | +10.1% | −16.8% | +40.3% | +18.3% | +9.8% | +0.8% | +9.7% |
| Net income | 658.6 m | 705.9 m | 175.8 m | 985.8 m | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn |
| Net income YoY | +18.6% | +7.2% | −75.1% | +460.7% | +26.0% | +3.9% | −7.0% | −4.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 10.94 | 12.15 | 3.11 | 17.98 | 24.01 | 26.03 | 25.34 | 25.64 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +22.1% | +11.1% | −74.4% | +478.1% | +33.5% | +8.4% | −2.7% | +1.2% |
| net % | 9.8% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 9.3% |
| Free cash flow | 636.7 m | 802.8 m | 658.5 m | 887.1 m | 1.2 bn | 1.0 bn | 964.1 m | 1.1 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Jan 2026
- Cash
- 424.2 m USD
- Financial debt
- 62.3 m USD
- Net debt
- -362.0 m USD
- Equity
- 2.8 bn USD
- Total assets
- 7.0 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.02x
- Current ratio
- 1.41x
- ROE
- 43.6%
- ROA
- 17.7%
- FCF margin
- 8.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.2 bn | 8.6 bn | 10.2 bn | 11.2 bn | 11.3 bn | 12.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 4.2 bn | 5.3 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.8 bn | 6.9 bn | 7.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.9 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| SG&A | 1.6 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 236.8 m | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 297.8 m | 268.5 m | 241.4 m | 243.8 m | 267.0 m | 300.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 534.6 m ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 231.1 m | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 55.3 m | 310.0 m | 401.1 m | 404.6 m | 378.9 m | 373.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 175.8 m | 985.8 m | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 3.11 | 17.98 | 24.01 | 26.03 | 25.34 | 25.64 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 56.6 m | 54.8 m | 51.7 m | 49.6 m | 47.4 m | 45.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.0 bn | 431.6 m | 737.9 m | 766.6 m | 703.2 m | 424.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 193.1 m | 233.7 m | 199.4 m | 207.9 m | 223.3 m | 296.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.5 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 995.8 m | 914.5 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 10.9 m | 10.9 m | 10.9 m | 10.9 m | 10.9 m | 226.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 2.5 m | — | 1.3 m | 510.0 k | 204.0 k | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2025verified |
| Total assets | 5.1 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.7 bn | 6.0 bn | 7.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 477.1 m | 552.7 m | 559.5 m | 544.0 m | 563.8 m | 685.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | — | — | — | — | 62.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 3.1 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.0 bn † | 1.5 bn † | 2.0 bn † | 2.3 bn † | 2.5 bn † | 2.8 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 810.4 m | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 151.9 m | 172.2 m | 312.1 m | 435.3 m | 374.5 m | 434.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 658.5 m ≈ | 887.1 m ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 964.1 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -48.8 m | -176.5 m | -314.6 m | -441.4 m | -383.1 m | -931.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -107.9 m | -1.5 bn | -861.0 m | -1.0 bn | -1.0 bn | -850.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 114.9 m | 1.5 bn | 900.0 m | 995.7 m | 1.0 bn | 901.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 56 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 28.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet64
- Valuation31
- Quality95
- Growth35
- Returns61
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 143.32 – 1,110.80 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDA234.43 – 1,110.80 (Mid 669.94)4 companies used · median multiple 14.9x · quartiles 5.3x – 24.6xSBH, SGU, TITN, TKLF
- Peers: P/E143.32 – 689.28 (Mid 222.01)6 companies used · median multiple 8.1x · quartiles 5.2x – 25.1xBBWI, JD, RENT, SBH, SGU, WOOF
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 56/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 44.7% | 100 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Net margin · Quality | 9.3% | 89 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 95.0% | 93 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 6.7% | 56 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 2.2% | 15 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.1x | 71 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 45 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 24.1x | 43 (vs peers) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 14.7x | 3 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 4.1% | 51 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.3% | 61 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet64/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth35/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality95/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial61/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation31/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ULTA BEAUTY, INC. (ULTA). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-08-01.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 12.4 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 9.7%; net margin 9.3%; ROE 46.1%; net debt/EBITDA 0.1x.
The estimated value range is 188.87–900.04 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 445.97 USD, the price of 660.70 USD leaves a potential of -32.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -48.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 56/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 44.7%
- Net margin: 9.3%
- FCF conversion: 95.0%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.1x
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 2.2%
- EV/EBITDA: 14.7x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Retail Stores, NEC (SIC 5990) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 18 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc. | 28.2 bn | 24.1 | 46.1% | 9.3% | +9.7% | +28% / +71% |
| BBWIBath & Body Works, Inc. | 4.7 bn | 6.1 | — | 10.8% | −0.2% | +35% / −28% |
| SBHSally Beauty Holdings, Inc. | 1.8 bn | 10.0 | 23.5% | 5.2% | −0.4% | +21% / +99% |
| YJYunji Inc. | 1.3 bn | — | -13.5% | -42.0% | −20.8% | −27% / −62% |
| TITNTitan Machinery Inc. | 530.0 m | — | -9.7% | -2.5% | −10.2% | +22% / −1% |
| SGUStar Group, L.P. | 429.8 m | 4.9 | — | 4.6% | +1.0% | +9% / +2% |
| NAASNaaS Technology Inc. | 223.8 m | — | — | -454.5% | −38.9% | −44% / −100% |
| NEGGNewegg Commerce, Inc. | 207.4 m | — | -3.7% | -0.3% | +16.9% | −87% / −61% |
| RENTRent the Runway, Inc. | 83.1 m | 0.2 | — | 11.8% | +7.7% | −49% / −77% |
| BARKBark, Inc. | 75.2 m | — | -36.7% | -8.4% | −18.5% | −42% / −49% |
| TKLFTokyo Lifestyle Co., Ltd. | 58.0 m | 68.5 | 1.7% | 0.2% | +77.6% | −48% / −82% |
| BQBoqii Holding Limited | 10.5 m | — | -2.8% | -1.2% | −5.7% | −79% / −98% |
| INHDInno Holdings Inc. | 8.7 m | — | -7.2% | -72.7% | +221.4% | −97% / unavailable |
| RCTRedCloud Holdings plc | 2.3 m | — | — | -95.3% | +4.3% | −98% / unavailable |
| LESLLeslie’s, Inc. | 955.3 k | — | — | -21.2% | −6.6% | unavailable / unavailable |
| WOOFPetco Health & Wellness Company, Inc. | — | 31.1 | 2.6% | 0.5% | −2.5% | −2% / +4% |
| FLWS1 800 Flowers Com Inc | — | — | -65.4% | -9.0% | −10.8% | −17% / −68% |
| HITIHigh Tide Inc. | — | — | -44.0% | -8.5% | +13.7% | +8% / +85% |
| JDJD.com, Inc. | — | 30.1 | 10.2% | 1.8% | +17.9% | −7% / +1% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ULTA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 411.53 Total return -38% · Per year -38% | 726.81 Total return 10% · Per year 10% | 1,093.76 Total return 66% · Per year 66% |
| 3 years | 417.06 Total return -37% · Per year -14% | 827.10 Total return 25% · Per year 8% | 1,364.09 Total return 106% · Per year 27% |
| 5 years | 422.67 Total return -36% · Per year -9% | 941.22 Total return 42% · Per year 7% | 1,701.24 Total return 157% · Per year 21% |
- Exit P/E± 206.77
- Net margin± 144.74
- Annual revenue growth± 116.39
- Annual dilution± 12.16
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Ulta Beauty is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the United States, offering cosmetics, fragrance, skin care, hair care, wellness products and salon services across stores and digital channels 1. Net sales reached 12.4 billion USD in fiscal 2025 and the company raised its fiscal 2026 outlook after a strong second quarter, making its trajectory relevant to investors and customers alike 13.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., with an extensive store network and a loyalty program that covers most sales 1.
- Its differentiated assortment of established and emerging brands, and its ability to offer exclusive products, are advantages that are hard to replicate quickly 1.
- Recent quarterly results show growth in sales, operating income and earnings per share, suggesting disciplined execution 3.
Weaknesses
- Operating margins have narrowed in recent years as spending on people, stores and corporate structure has risen, keeping pressure on profitability 1.
- A relatively small number of brand partners account for a large share of sales, creating vulnerability if those relationships deteriorate 1.
- International activity is still early, and integrating Space NK could dilute margins because its business mix differs 3.
Opportunities
- Expansion in wellness and in international markets could add growth if the new lines are well received 1.
- The UB Marketplace and the UB Media advertising network could generate revenue with limited inventory risk 1.
- The U.S. market remains large and growing, and the potential to expand the store base could support long-term growth 1.
Threats
- Inflation, tariffs and economic uncertainty could reduce discretionary consumer spending 1.
- Larger competitors with greater financial and marketing resources could gain share through aggressive pricing 1.
- Geopolitical events and climate-related disruptions could interrupt supply chains and close stores temporarily 1.
Risks
- Discretionary spendinghigh
A fall in consumer confidence or a recession could reduce demand for beauty products and premium salon services 1.
- Intense competitionhigh
The market is dominated by larger competitors, which could lead to lost share if prices are cut aggressively 1.
- Inventory managementmedium
Excess stock could force markdowns and lower profitability, while insufficient stock could cost sales 1.
- Dependence on brand partnersmedium
A deterioration in relations with major brands, or a change in their distribution model, could limit the assortment 1.
- External events and climatelow
Pandemics, natural disasters and conflicts could temporarily close stores and disrupt supply 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If recent quarterly results hold and sales growth is sustained through the loyalty program and omnichannel model, the company could keep improving profitability 13.
- Expansion into wellness and international markets could add growth if new products and partnerships are well received 1.
- The raised fiscal 2026 outlook could reflect confidence in the strategy if macroeconomic pressures do not intensify 3.
What would break the thesis
- If inflation and tariffs keep rising, consumers could cut discretionary spending and margins could come under pressure 1.
- Larger competitors could adopt more aggressive pricing, which could slow the company's market share gains 1.
- Integrating Space NK and investing in new stores could weigh on margins if sales do not grow fast enough 13.
What to watch
- Quarterly results and comparable sales trendQ3 2026
- Delivery against the raised fiscal 2026 outlook2026
- Gross margin trend after the Space NK integrationQ3 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The business model rests on a differentiated assortment, an omnichannel footprint combining stores and digital platforms, a best-in-class loyalty program and warm guest experiences 1. The Ulta Beauty Rewards program gives the company data to personalize offers and to support UB Media, a retail media network for brand partners 1. The current Ulta Beauty Unleashed strategy has three priorities: drive core business growth, scale new businesses and align the foundation 1.
Recent results show growth in net sales and operating income, and the company increased its fiscal 2026 share repurchase plan 3. Dependence on discretionary spending and inflationary pressures remain factors that could influence future performance 1.
Segments
Market context
The U.S. beauty products and salon services market was estimated at about 126 billion USD in 2025, and the company estimates around 140 million beauty enthusiasts in the country 1. The company says the market expanded in 2025 and the first half of 2026, supported by sustained consumer engagement with beauty 2.
Growth is supported by the convergence of beauty and wellness and by social media influence, which widens the pool of potential customers 1. A retailer that captures trends quickly could take a share of this growth if it keeps its assortment advantage 1.
Trends
- Omnichannel shopping behaviourtailwind
Guests who shop both in store and online historically spend more than three times as much as store-only guests, and the company invests in digital to grow this group 1. This pattern could support margins if the share of omnichannel guests rises 1.
- Inflation and macroeconomic pressureheadwind
The company warns that persistent inflation, transport costs and tariffs can raise costs and weigh on discretionary consumer spending 1. If these pressures persist, they could affect sales growth and profitability 1.
- Expansion into wellnessmixed
Wellness products such as supplements, intimate care and rest and reset products are becoming a larger part of the offer 1. Expansion in this area could add new revenue, although the required investment could weigh on costs 1.
- Share repurchases and capital structuremixed
The company increased its fiscal 2026 repurchase plan and expects to use the remaining authorization by the end of the year 3. Short-term funding for working capital and buybacks could raise the cost of debt if interest rates stay elevated 13.
Competitive position
The beauty products market is highly competitive with few barriers to entry, and the company faces mass merchandisers, specialty retailers, online platforms, department stores and drug stores 1. In salon services it competes with high-end and discount salon chains and locally owned salons 1.
Many competitors are larger and have greater financial and marketing resources, which could let them adapt faster or adopt more aggressive pricing 1. The company differentiates through its assortment, omnichannel experience and loyalty program 1.
- Sephora
A specialty retailer of cosmetics and fragrance that competes directly in prestige categories, as noted in the wider sector context rather than the core filings.
- Mass merchandisers and drug stores
Numerous retailers selling mass beauty products, particularly through general merchandise stores and pharmacies, named as a core competitive group in the annual report.
- Online platforms and marketplaces
National retailers' e-commerce operations, pure-play online retailers and social media marketplaces could gain share through convenience.
- Salon chains and local salons
In salon services the company faces high-end and discount chains as well as independent local salons.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Is Ulta Beauty Stock Underperforming the S&P 500?Yahoo Finance — News · 18 Sept 2026 · EN
- Ulta Beauty Sees Resilient Demand, Eyes Fragrance, Wellness Growth After Target ExitYahoo Finance — News · 13 Sept 2026 · EN
- Here Are Tuesday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Abercrombie & Fitch, Affirm Holdings, Eagle Materials, Klarna Group, Martin Marietta Materials, Oklo, Qualcomm, Robinhood Markets, Ulta Beauty, and MoreYahoo Finance — News · 09 Sept 2026 · EN
- Ulta Beauty Climbs 4%, e.l.f. Beauty Rises 5% as Post-Earnings Selloff ReversesYahoo Finance — News · 31 Aug 2026 · EN
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptYahoo Finance — News · 31 Aug 2026 · EN
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Sales Jumped 8.9%, but Space NK Pressured Gross Margin. Is the Deal Paying Off?Yahoo Finance — News · 29 Aug 2026 · EN
- Ulta Beauty Stock Is Down Today. Now Could Be a Good Time to Buy.Yahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
- Ulta Beauty Slips 4% Despite Raised Guidance and Q2 Earnings Beat, e.l.f. Beauty Pulls BackYahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
- Ulta Beauty Beats Wall Street Expectations, Raises Full-year Forecasts Amid Strong Q2 PerformanceYahoo Finance — News · 27 Aug 2026 · EN
- Ulta Beauty Raises Forecast as Sales GrowYahoo Finance — News · 27 Aug 2026 · EN
- What Are Wall Street Analysts' Target Price for Ulta Beauty Stock?Yahoo Finance — News · 25 Aug 2026 · EN
- [PHOTO] Ulta Beauty meets K-beautyKorea Times — Business · 18 May 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Quarterly report27 Aug 2026
- Current report27 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report09 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report02 Jun 2026
- Current report02 Jun 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement22 Apr 2026
- Annual report26 Mar 2026
- Current report12 Mar 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 · SEC / Ulta Beauty, Inc. · 26 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-08-01 · SEC / Ulta Beauty, Inc. · 27 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Ulta Beauty, Inc. · 27 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.